Reduced fire severity offers near-term buffer to climate-driven declines in conifer resilience across the western United States.

Increasing fire severity and warmer, drier postfire conditions are making forests in the western United States (West) vulnerable to ecological transformation. Yet, the relative importance of and interactions between these drivers of forest change remain unresolved, particularly over upcoming decades. Here, we assess how the interactive impacts of changing climate and wildfire activity influenced conifer regeneration after 334 wildfires, using a dataset of postfire conifer regeneration from 10,230 field plots. Our findings highlight declining regeneration capacity across the West over the past four decades for the eight dominant conifer species studied. Postfire regeneration is sensitive to high-severity fire, which limits seed availability, and postfire climate, which influences seedling establishment. In the near-term, projected differences in recruitment probability between low- and high-severity fire scenarios were larger than projected climate change impacts for most species, suggesting that reductions in fire severity, and resultant impacts on seed availability, could partially offset expected climate-driven declines in postfire regeneration. Across 40 to 42% of the study area, we project postfire conifer regeneration to be likely following low-severity but not high-severity fire under future climate scenarios (2031 to 2050). However, increasingly warm, dry climate conditions are projected to eventually outweigh the influence of fire severity and seed availability. The percent of the study area considered unlikely to experience conifer regeneration, regardless of fire severity, increased from 5% in 1981 to 2000 to 26 to 31% by mid-century, highlighting a limited time window over which management actions that reduce fire severity may effectively support postfire conifer regeneration.

The Fire and Tree Mortality Database, for empirical modeling of individual tree mortality after fire.

Wildland fires have a multitude of ecological effects in forests, woodlands, and savannas across the globe. A major focus of past research has been on tree mortality from fire, as trees provide a vast range of biological services. We assembled a database of individual-tree records from prescribed fires and wildfires in the United States. The Fire and Tree Mortality (FTM) database includes records from 164,293 individual trees with records of fire injury (crown scorch, bole char, etc.), tree diameter, and either mortality or top-kill up to ten years post-fire. Data span 142 species and 62 genera, from 409 fires occurring from 1981-2016. Additional variables such as insect attack are included when available. The FTM database can be used to evaluate individual fire-caused mortality models for pre-fire planning and post-fire decision support, to develop improved models, and to explore general patterns of individual fire-induced tree death. The database can also be used to identify knowledge gaps that could be addressed in future research.

Forest recovery following synchronous outbreaks of spruce and western balsam bark beetle is slowed by ungulate browsing.

Understanding how severe disturbances and their interactions affect forests is key to projecting ecological change under a warming climate. Substantial increases in some biotic disturbances, such as bark beetle outbreaks, in temperate forest ecosystemsmay compromise recovery to a forest vegetation type (i.e., physiognomic recovery or resilience), especially if subsequent biotic disturbances (e.g., herbivory) alter recovery mechanisms. From 2005 to 2017, severe outbreaks (>90% mortality) of spruce bark beetles (SB, Dendroctonus rufipennis) affected Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii) across 325,000 ha of spruce and subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa) forest in the southern Rocky Mountains, USA. Concurrently, an outbreak of western balsam bark beetle (WBBB, Dryocoetes confuses) infested subalpine fir across at least 47,000 of these hectares. We explored the capacity of 105 stands affected by one or two bark beetle outbreaks and browsing of juvenile trees by ungulates to return to a forest vegetation type in the context of pre-outbreak forest conditions and topography. Nine initial forest trajectories (i.e., at least several decades) were identified from four pre-outbreak forest types affected by three biotic disturbances that occurred at different spatial scales and severities. Most stands (86%) contained surviving nonhost adult trees in the main canopy (fir and aspen [Populus tremuloides]) and many surviving juveniles of all species, implying that they are currently on a trajectory for physiognomic recovery. Stands composed exclusively of large-diameter spruce were affected by a severe SB outbreak and were most vulnerable to a transition to a low-density forest, below regional stocking levels (<370 trees/ha). Greater pre-outbreak stand structural complexity and species diversity were key traits of stands with a higher potential for physiognomic recovery. However, all multispecies stands shifted in relative composition of the main canopy to nonhost species, suggesting low potential for compositional recovery over the next several decades. Most post-outbreak stands (86%) exceeded regional stocking levels with trees taller than the browse zone (<2 m). As such, ungulate browsing on over half of all juveniles will primarily affect the rate of infilling of the forest canopy and preferential browsing of more palatable species will influence the composition of the future forest canopy.

Moisture availability limits subalpine tree establishment.

In the absence of broad-scale disturbance, many temperate coniferous forests experience successful seedling establishment only when abundant seed production coincides with favorable climate. Identifying the frequency of past establishment events and the climate conditions favorable for seedling establishment is essential to understanding how climate warming could affect the frequency of future tree establishment events and therefore future forest composition or even persistence of a forest cover. In the southern Rocky Mountains, USA, research on the sensitivity of establishment of Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii) and subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa)-two widely distributed, co-occurring conifers in North America-to climate variability has focused on the alpine treeline ecotone, leaving uncertainty about the sensitivity of these species across much of their elevation distribution. We compared annual germination dates for >450 Engelmann spruce and >500 subalpine fir seedlings collected across a complex topographic-moisture gradient to climate variability in the Colorado Front Range. We found that Engelmann spruce and subalpine fir established episodically with strong synchrony in establishment events across the study area. Broad-scale establishment events occurred in years of high soil moisture availability, which were characterized by above-average snowpack and/or cool and wet summer climatic conditions. In the recent half of the study period (1975-2010), a decrease in the number of fir and spruce establishment events across their distribution coincided with declining snowpack and a multi-decadal trend of rising summer temperature and increasing moisture deficits. Counter to expected and observed increases in tree establishment with climate warming in maritime subalpine forests, our results show that recruitment declines will likely occur across the core of moisture-limited subalpine tree ranges as warming drives increased moisture deficits.

Fire severity unaffected by spruce beetle outbreak in spruce-fir forests in southwestern Colorado.

Recent large and severe outbreaks of native bark beetles have raised concern among the general public and land managers about potential for amplified fire activity in western North America. To date, the majority of studies examining bark beetle outbreaks and subsequent fire severity in the U.S. Rocky Mountains have focused on outbreaks of mountain pine beetle (MPB; Dendroctonus ponderosae) in lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) forests, but few studies, particularly field studies, have addressed the effects of the severity of spruce beetle (Dendroctonus rufipennis Kirby) infestation on subsequent fire severity in subalpine Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii) and subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa) forests. In Colorado, the annual area infested by spruce beetle outbreaks is rapidly rising, while MPB outbreaks are subsiding; therefore understanding this relationship is of growing importance. We collected extensive field data in subalpine forests in the eastern San Juan Mountains, southwestern Colorado, USA, to investigate whether a gray-stage (< 5 yr from outbreak to time of fire) spruce beetle infestation affected fire severity. Contrary to the expectation that bark beetle infestation alters subsequent fire severity, correlation and multivariate generalized linear regression analysis revealed no influence of pre-fire spruce beetle severity on nearly all field or remotely sensed measurements of fire severity. Findings were consistent across moderate and extreme burning conditions. In comparison to severity of the pre-fire beetle outbreak, we found that topography, pre-outbreak basal area, and weather conditions exerted a stronger effect on fire severity. Our finding that beetle infestation did not alter fire severity is consistent with previous retrospective studies examining fire activity following other bark beetle outbreaks and reiterates the overriding influence of climate that creates conditions conducive to large, high-severity fires in the subalpine zone of Colorado. Both bark beetle outbreaks and wildfires have increased autonomously due to recent climate variability, but this study does not support the expectation that post-beetle outbreak forests will alter fire severity, a result that has important implications for management and policy decisions.