Large-scale population disappearances and cycling in the white-lipped peccary, a tropical forest mammal.

Many vertebrate species undergo population fluctuations that may be random or regularly cyclic in nature. Vertebrate population cycles in northern latitudes are driven by both endogenous and exogenous factors. Suggested causes of mysterious disappearances documented for populations of the Neotropical, herd-forming, white-lipped peccary (Tayassu pecari, henceforth "WLP") include large-scale movements, overhunting, extreme floods, or disease outbreaks. By analyzing 43 disappearance events across the Neotropics and 88 years of commercial and subsistence harvest data for the Amazon, we show that WLP disappearances are widespread and occur regularly and at large spatiotemporal scales throughout the species' range. We present evidence that the disappearances represent 7-12-year troughs in 20-30-year WLP population cycles occurring synchronously at regional and perhaps continent-wide spatial scales as large as 10,000-5 million km2. This may represent the first documented case of natural population cyclicity in a Neotropical mammal. Because WLP populations often increase dramatically prior to a disappearance, we posit that their population cycles result from over-compensatory, density-dependent mortality. Our data also suggest that the increase phase of a WLP cycle is partly dependent on recolonization from proximal, unfragmented and undisturbed forests. This highlights the importance of very large, continuous natural areas that enable source-sink population dynamics and ensure re-colonization and local population persistence in time and space.

Habitat use of the ocelot (Leopardus pardalis) in Brazilian Amazon.

Amazonia forest plays a major role in providing ecosystem services for human and sanctuaries for wildlife. However, ongoing deforestation and habitat fragmentation in the Brazilian Amazon has threatened both. The ocelot is an ecologically important mesopredator and a potential conservation ambassador species, yet there are no previous studies on its habitat preference and spatial patterns in this biome. From 2010 to 2017, twelve sites were surveyed, totaling 899 camera trap stations, the largest known dataset for this species. Using occupancy modeling incorporating spatial autocorrelation, we assessed habitat use for ocelot populations across the Brazilian Amazon. Our results revealed a positive sigmoidal correlation between remote-sensing derived metrics of forest cover, disjunct core area density, elevation, distance to roads, distance to settlements and habitat use, and that habitat use by ocelots was negatively associated with slope and distance to river/lake. These findings shed light on the regional scale habitat use of ocelots and indicate important species-habitat relationships, thus providing valuable information for conservation management and land-use planning.

Differential resilience of Amazonian otters along the Rio Negro in the aftermath of the 20th century international fur trade.

Commercial hunting for the international trade in animal hides in the 20th century decimated many populations of aquatic wildlife in Amazonia. However, impacts varied significantly between different species and regions, depending upon hunting intensity, accessibility of habitat, and the inherent resilience of various species and their habitats. We investigated the differential responses of two Amazonian Mustelid species, the neotropical otter and giant otter, to commercial hunting pressure along the upper Rio Negro in Brazil, and examined historical factors that influenced spatial and temporal variation in commercial exploitation. We analyzed previously unanalyzed data from historical records of hide shipments to track changes in hide sales and prices for the two species in the late 20th century. We also gathered oral histories from older Baniwa people who had witnessed or participated in commercial otter hunting. These complimentary data sources reveal how intrinsic biological and social characteristics of the two otter species interacted with market forces and regional history. Whereas giant otter populations were driven to local or regional extinction during the late 20th century by commercial hunting, neotropical otters persisted. In recent decades, giant otter populations have returned to some parts of the upper Rio Negro, a development which local people welcome as part of a generalized recovery of the ecosystems in their territory as a result of the banning of animal pelt exports and indigenous land demarcation. This paper expands the scope of the field historical ecology and reflects on the role of local knowledge in biodiversity conservation.

Empty forest or empty rivers? A century of commercial hunting in Amazonia.

The Amazon basin is the largest and most species-rich tropical forest and river system in the world, playing a pivotal role in global climate regulation and harboring hundreds of traditional and indigenous cultures. It is a matter of intense debate whether the ecosystem is threatened by hunting practices, whereby an "empty forest" loses critical ecological functions. Strikingly, no previous study has examined Amazonian ecosystem resilience through the perspective of the massive 20th century international trade in furs and skins. We present the first historical account of the scale and impacts of this trade and show that whereas aquatic species suffered basin-wide population collapse, terrestrial species did not. We link this differential resilience to the persistence of adequate spatial refuges for terrestrial species, enabling populations to be sustained through source-sink dynamics, contrasting with unremitting hunting pressure on more accessible aquatic habitats. Our findings attest the high vulnerability of aquatic fauna to unregulated hunting, particularly during years of severe drought. We propose that the relative resilience of terrestrial species suggests a marked opportunity for managing, rather than criminalizing, contemporary traditional subsistence hunting in Amazonia, through both the engagement of local people in community-based comanagement programs and science-led conservation governance.

Ten-year incidence of Chagas cardiomyopathy among asymptomatic Trypanosoma cruzi-seropositive former blood donors.

BACKGROUND: Very few studies have measured disease penetrance and prognostic factors of Chagas cardiomyopathy among asymptomatic Trypanosoma cruzi-infected persons. METHODS AND RESULTS: We performed a retrospective cohort study among initially healthy blood donors with an index T cruzi-seropositive donation and age-, sex-, and period-matched seronegatives in 1996 to 2002 in the Brazilian cities of São Paulo and Montes Claros. In 2008 to 2010, all subjects underwent medical history, physical examination, ECGs, and echocardiograms. ECG and echocardiogram results were classified by blinded core laboratories, and records with abnormal results were reviewed by a blinded panel of 3 cardiologists who adjudicated the outcome of Chagas cardiomyopathy. Associations with Chagas cardiomyopathy were tested with multivariate logistic regression. Mean follow-up time between index donation and outcome assessment was 10.5 years for the seropositives and 11.1 years for the seronegatives. Among 499 T cruzi seropositives, 120 (24%) had definite Chagas cardiomyopathy, and among 488 T cruzi seronegatives, 24 (5%) had cardiomyopathy, for an incidence difference of 1.85 per 100 person-years attributable to T cruzi infection. Of the 120 seropositives classified as having Chagas cardiomyopathy, only 31 (26%) presented with ejection fraction <50%, and only 11 (9%) were classified as New York Heart Association class II or higher. Chagas cardiomyopathy was associated (P<0.01) with male sex, a history of abnormal ECG, and the presence of an S3 heart sound. CONCLUSIONS: There is a substantial annual incidence of Chagas cardiomyopathy among initially asymptomatic T cruzi-seropositive blood donors, although disease was mild at diagnosis.