Climate predicts geographic and temporal variation in mosquito-borne disease dynamics on two continents.

Climate drives population dynamics through multiple mechanisms, which can lead to seemingly context-dependent effects of climate on natural populations. For climate-sensitive diseases, such as dengue, chikungunya, and Zika, climate appears to have opposing effects in different contexts. Here we show that a model, parameterized with laboratory measured climate-driven mosquito physiology, captures three key epidemic characteristics across ecologically and culturally distinct settings in Ecuador and Kenya: the number, timing, and duration of outbreaks. The model generates a range of disease dynamics consistent with observed Aedes aegypti abundances and laboratory-confirmed arboviral incidence with variable accuracy (28-85% for vectors, 44-88% for incidence). The model predicted vector dynamics better in sites with a smaller proportion of young children in the population, lower mean temperature, and homes with piped water and made of cement. Models with limited calibration that robustly capture climate-virus relationships can help guide intervention efforts and climate change disease projections.

Developing global climate anomalies suggest potential disease risks for 2006-2007.

BACKGROUND: El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related climate anomalies have been shown to have an impact on infectious disease outbreaks. The Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA/CPC) has recently issued an unscheduled El Niño advisory, indicating that warmer than normal sea surface temperatures across the equatorial eastern Pacific may have pronounced impacts on global tropical precipitation patterns extending into the northern hemisphere particularly over North America. Building evidence of the links between ENSO driven climate anomalies and infectious diseases, particularly those transmitted by insects, can allow us to provide improved long range forecasts of an epidemic or epizootic. We describe developing climate anomalies that suggest potential disease risks using satellite generated data. RESULTS: Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial east Pacific ocean have anomalously increased significantly during July - October 2006 indicating the typical development of El Niño conditions. The persistence of these conditions will lead to extremes in global-scale climate anomalies as has been observed during similar conditions in the past. Positive Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) anomalies, indicative of severe drought conditions, have been observed across all of Indonesia, Malaysia and most of the Philippines, which are usually the first areas to experience ENSO-related impacts. This dryness can be expected to continue, on average, for the remainder of 2006 continuing into the early part of 2007. During the period November 2006 - January 2007 climate forecasts indicate that there is a high probability for above normal rainfall in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Islands, the Korean Peninsula, the U.S. Gulf Coast and Florida, northern South America and equatorial east Africa. Taking into consideration current observations and climate forecast information, indications are that the following regions are at increased risk for disease outbreaks: Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and most of the southeast Asia Islands for increased dengue fever transmission and increased respiratory illness; Coastal Peru, Ecuador, Venezuela, and Colombia for increased risk of malaria; Bangladesh and coastal India for elevated risk of cholera; East Africa for increased risk of a Rift Valley fever outbreak and elevated malaria; southwest USA for increased risk for hantavirus pulmonary syndrome and plague; southern California for increased West Nile virus transmission; and northeast Brazil for increased dengue fever and respiratory illness. CONCLUSION: The current development of El Niño conditions has significant implications for global public health. Extremes in climate events with above normal rainfall and flooding in some regions and extended drought periods in other regions will occur. Forecasting disease is critical for timely and efficient planning of operational control programs. In this paper we describe developing global climate anomalies that suggest potential disease risks that will give decision makers additional tools to make rational judgments concerning implementation of disease prevention and mitigation strategies.

Climate-disease connections: Rift Valley Fever in Kenya

Entre 1950 e 1998 houve surtos de febre no Vale do Rift, no Quênia, após períodos de aumentos pluviométricos anormais. Em escala interanual, esses períodos estiveram associados à fase quente do fenômeno ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation) na Africa Oriental. As chuvas alagam os criadouros de mosquitos - dambos -, cujos ovos, infectados pela via transovariana, eclodem, produzindo mosquitos Aedes, transmissores do vírus da febre do Vale do Rift aos seres humanos e, em especial, ao gado. A análise dos dados históricos sobre surtos de febre do Vale do Rift e indicadores do fenômeno ENSO - incluindo temperaturas superficiais dos Oceanos Pacífico e Indico e o Indice de Oscilaçäo Sul - mostrou que mais de 75 por cento dos surtos ocorreram em períodos quentes do ENSO. Na época estudada - 1981-1998 -, o mapeamento das condiçöes ecológicas via satélite (NDVI) - com dados normalizados sobre diferenças na vegetaçäo - evidenciou que as áreas de surto apresentaram desvios anômalos na intensidade do verde da vegetaçäo (indicador de pluviosidade alta), em particular, nas regiöes áridas da Africa Oriental - as mais afetadas pela febre. Os resultados indicam associaçäo estreita entre variabilidade climática interanual e surtos de febre do Vale do Rift no Quênia.