Recent patterns and mechanisms of carbon exchange by terrestrial ecosystems.

Knowledge of carbon exchange between the atmosphere, land and the oceans is important, given that the terrestrial and marine environments are currently absorbing about half of the carbon dioxide that is emitted by fossil-fuel combustion. This carbon uptake is therefore limiting the extent of atmospheric and climatic change, but its long-term nature remains uncertain. Here we provide an overview of the current state of knowledge of global and regional patterns of carbon exchange by terrestrial ecosystems. Atmospheric carbon dioxide and oxygen data confirm that the terrestrial biosphere was largely neutral with respect to net carbon exchange during the 1980s, but became a net carbon sink in the 1990s. This recent sink can be largely attributed to northern extratropical areas, and is roughly split between North America and Eurasia. Tropical land areas, however, were approximately in balance with respect to carbon exchange, implying a carbon sink that offset emissions due to tropical deforestation. The evolution of the terrestrial carbon sink is largely the result of changes in land use over time, such as regrowth on abandoned agricultural land and fire prevention, in addition to responses to environmental changes, such as longer growing seasons, and fertilization by carbon dioxide and nitrogen. Nevertheless, there remain considerable uncertainties as to the magnitude of the sink in different regions and the contribution of different processes.

The carbon budget of Canadian forests: a sensitivity analysis of changes in disturbance regimes, growth rates, and decomposition rates.

Ecosystem responses to climate changes will affect the exchange of carbon (C) with the atmosphere, thus providing feedback for future climate response. We have developed a C budget model of Canadian forests and forest sector activities and used sensitivity analysis runs with changes in productivity, decomposition, and disturbance regimes to assess the sensitivity of the Canadian forest sector C budget over the next century. The model operates on data derived from Canada's National Forest Biomass Inventory, from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory global soil C data base, and from Canadian data bases that document areas annually disturbed by fire, insects, and harvesting. It simulates the dynamics of biomass and soil C pools (including detritus and coarse woody debris) as they are affected by growth, decomposition, and disturbances. For the reference run of the model, we assumed unchanging climate and disturbance regimes. Under these conditions, total ecosystem C increased by 2 Gt C (2.3%) over the 100-year simulation period. In the sensitivity analysis, we explored the effects of changes in the area annually disturbed by fire and insect-induced stand mortality (-60 to +300%), growth rates (-10 to +20%), decomposition rates (-10 to +25%), and combined changes in growth and decomposition rates. In every model run, the change of total ecosystem C relative to the reference run was less than 10%. Combined changes to growth and decomposition rates yielded very small deviations from the results of the reference run (-0.8 to +1.2%). Because disturbance regime changes affect forest age-class structure as well as forest dynamics, they are expected to affect C budgets strongly. Total ecosystem C, however, is slightly more sensitive to changes in growth and decomposition parameters than to changes in disturbance regimes. Although the sensitivity analysis results suggest that C budgets are little affected by the range of parameter changes implemented here, we must emphasize that our sensitivity analyses do not account for potentially important processes, such as regeneration failure or the shifts in forest distribution.