RESUMO
BACKGROUND: To investigate the population based incidence rate of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and its potential risk factors among Iranian diabetic adults during over 14 years of follow-up. METHODS: Two different equations (Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration [CKD-EPI] and Modification of Diet in Renal Disease [MDRD]) were applied for the calculating the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). Among a total of 1,374 diabetic Tehranian adults, 797 and 680 individuals were eligible for CKD-EPI and MDRD analyses, respectively. CKD was defined as eGFR lower than 60 mL/min/1.73 m2. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for all potential risk factors. RESULTS: The incidence rates (95% CI) of CKD per 1,000 person-years were 43.84 (39.49 to 48.66) and 55.80 (50.29 to 61.91) based on CKD-EPI and MDRD equations, respectively. Being older, a history of cardiovascular disease, and having lower levels of eGFR were significant risk factors in both equations. Moreover, in CKD-EPI, using glucose-lowering medications and hypertension, and in MDRD, female sex and fasting plasma glucose ≥10 mmol/L were also independent risk factors. Regarding the discrimination index, CKD-EPI equation showed a higher range of C-index for the predicted probability of incident CKD in the full-adjusted model, compared to MDRD equation (0.75 [0.72 to 0.77] vs. 0.69 [0.66 to 0.72]). CONCLUSION: We found an incidence rate of more than 4%/year for CKD development among our Iranian diabetic population. Compared to MDRD, it can be suggested that CKD-EPI equation can be a better choice to use for prediction models of incident CKD among the Iranian diabetic populations.
