Investigation of the Impact of Childhood Immune Imprinting on Birth Year-Specific Risk of Clinical Infection During Influenza A Virus Epidemics in Hong Kong.

Influenza imprinting reduces risks of influenza A virus clinical infection by 40%-90%, estimated from surveillance data in western countries. We analyzed surveillance data from 2010 to 2019 in Hong Kong. Based on the best model, which included hemagglutinin group-level imprinting, we estimated that individuals imprinted to H1N1 or H2N2 had a 17% (95% confidence interval [CI], 3%-28%) lower risk of H1N1 clinical infection, and individuals imprinted to H3N2 would have 12% (95% CI, -3% to 26%) lower risk of H3N2 clinical infection. These estimated imprinting protections were weaker than estimates in western countries. Identifying factors affecting imprinting protections is important for control policies and disease modeling.

Tracking changes in SARS-CoV-2 transmission with a novel outpatient sentinel surveillance system in Chicago, USA.

Public health indicators typically used for COVID-19 surveillance can be biased or lag changing community transmission patterns. In this study, we investigate whether sentinel surveillance of recently symptomatic individuals receiving outpatient diagnostic testing for SARS-CoV-2 could accurately assess the instantaneous reproductive number R(t) and provide early warning of changes in transmission. We use data from community-based diagnostic testing sites in the United States city of Chicago. Patients tested at community-based diagnostic testing sites between September 2020 and June 2021, and reporting symptom onset within four days preceding their test, formed the sentinel population. R(t) calculated from sentinel cases agreed well with R(t) from other indicators. Retrospectively, trends in sentinel cases did not precede trends in COVID-19 hospital admissions by any identifiable lead time. In deployment, sentinel surveillance held an operational recency advantage of nine days over hospital admissions. The promising performance of opportunistic sentinel surveillance suggests that deliberately designed outpatient sentinel surveillance would provide robust early warning of increasing transmission.

Modeling robust COVID-19 intensive care unit occupancy thresholds for imposing mitigation to prevent exceeding capacities.

In non-pharmaceutical management of COVID-19, occupancy of intensive care units (ICU) is often used as an indicator to inform when to intensify mitigation and thus reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission, strain on ICUs, and deaths. However, ICU occupancy thresholds at which action should be taken are often selected arbitrarily. We propose a quantitative approach using mathematical modeling to identify ICU occupancy thresholds at which mitigation should be triggered to avoid exceeding the ICU capacity available for COVID-19 patients and demonstrate this approach for the United States city of Chicago. We used a stochastic compartmental model to simulate SARS-CoV-2 transmission and disease progression, including critical cases that would require intensive care. We calibrated the model using daily COVID-19 ICU and hospital census data between March and August 2020. We projected various possible ICU occupancy trajectories from September 2020 to May 2021 with two possible levels of transmission increase and uncertainty in core model parameters. The effect of combined mitigation measures was modeled as a decrease in the transmission rate that took effect when projected ICU occupancy reached a specified threshold. We found that mitigation did not immediately eliminate the risk of exceeding ICU capacity. Delaying action by 7 days increased the probability of exceeding ICU capacity by 10-60% and this increase could not be counteracted by stronger mitigation. Even under modest transmission increase, a threshold occupancy no higher than 60% was required when mitigation reduced the reproductive number Rt to just below 1. At higher transmission increase, a threshold of at most 40% was required with mitigation that reduced Rt below 0.75 within the first two weeks after mitigation. Our analysis demonstrates a quantitative approach for the selection of ICU occupancy thresholds that considers parameter uncertainty and compares relevant mitigation and transmission scenarios. An appropriate threshold will depend on the location, number of ICU beds available for COVID-19, available mitigation options, feasible mitigation strengths, and tolerated durations of intensified mitigation.

Rapid evolutionary turnover of mobile genetic elements drives bacterial resistance to phages.

Although it is generally accepted that phages drive bacterial evolution, how these dynamics play out in the wild remains poorly understood. We found that susceptibility to viral killing in marine Vibrio is mediated by large and highly diverse mobile genetic elements. These phage defense elements display exceedingly fast evolutionary turnover, resulting in differential phage susceptibility among clonal bacterial strains while phage receptors remain invariant. Protection is cumulative, and a single bacterial genome can harbor 6 to 12 defense elements, accounting for more than 90% of the flexible genome among close relatives. The rapid turnover of these elements decouples phage resistance from other genomic features. Thus, resistance to phages in the wild follows evolutionary trajectories alternative to those predicted from laboratory-based evolutionary experiments.

Lineage-specific protection and immune imprinting shape the age distributions of influenza B cases.

How a history of influenza virus infections contributes to protection is not fully understood, but such protection might explain the contrasting age distributions of cases of the two lineages of influenza B, B/Victoria and B/Yamagata. Fitting a statistical model to those distributions using surveillance data from New Zealand, we found they could be explained by historical changes in lineage frequencies combined with cross-protection between strains of the same lineage. We found additional protection against B/Yamagata in people for whom it was their first influenza B infection, similar to the immune imprinting observed in influenza A. While the data were not informative about B/Victoria imprinting, B/Yamagata imprinting could explain the fewer B/Yamagata than B/Victoria cases in cohorts born in the 1990s and the bimodal age distribution of B/Yamagata cases. Longitudinal studies can test if these forms of protection inferred from historical data extend to more recent strains and other populations.

Influenza immune escape under heterogeneous host immune histories.

In a pattern called immune imprinting, individuals gain the strongest immune protection against the influenza strains encountered earliest in life. In many recent examples, differences in early infection history can explain birth year-associated differences in susceptibility (cohort effects). Susceptibility shapes strain fitness, but without a clear conceptual model linking host susceptibility to the identity and order of past infections general conclusions on the evolutionary and epidemic implications of cohort effects are not possible. Failure to differentiate between cohort effects caused by differences in the set, rather than the order (path), of past infections is a current source of confusion. We review and refine hypotheses for path-dependent cohort effects, which include imprinting. We highlight strategies to measure their underlying causes and emergent consequences.

Geographic and demographic heterogeneity of SARS-CoV-2 diagnostic testing in Illinois, USA, March to December 2020.

BACKGROUND: Availability of SARS-CoV-2 testing in the United States (U.S.) has fluctuated through the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, including in the U.S. state of Illinois. Despite substantial ramp-up in test volume, access to SARS-CoV-2 testing remains limited, heterogeneous, and insufficient to control spread. METHODS: We compared SARS-CoV-2 testing rates across geographic regions, over time, and by demographic characteristics (i.e., age and racial/ethnic groups) in Illinois during March through December 2020. We compared age-matched case fatality ratios and infection fatality ratios through time to estimate the fraction of SARS-CoV-2 infections that have been detected through diagnostic testing. RESULTS: By the end of 2020, initial geographic differences in testing rates had closed substantially. Case fatality ratios were higher in non-Hispanic Black and Hispanic/Latino populations in Illinois relative to non-Hispanic White populations, suggesting that tests were insufficient to accurately capture the true burden of COVID-19 disease in the minority populations during the initial epidemic wave. While testing disparities decreased during 2020, Hispanic/Latino populations consistently remained the least tested at 1.87 tests per 1000 population per day compared with 2.58 and 2.87 for non-Hispanic Black and non-Hispanic White populations, respectively, at the end of 2020. Despite a large expansion in testing since the beginning of the first wave of the epidemic, we estimated that over half (50-80%) of all SARS-CoV-2 infections were not detected by diagnostic testing and continued to evade surveillance. CONCLUSIONS: Systematic methods for identifying relatively under-tested geographic regions and demographic groups may enable policymakers to regularly monitor and evaluate the shifting landscape of diagnostic testing, allowing officials to prioritize allocation of testing resources to reduce disparities in COVID-19 burden and eventually reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission.

Geographic and demographic heterogeneity of SARS-CoV-2 diagnostic testing in Illinois, USA, March to December 2020.

Background: Availability of SARS-CoV-2 testing in the United States (U.S.) has fluctuated through the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, including in the U.S. state of Illinois. Despite substantial ramp-up in test volume, access to SARS-CoV-2 testing remains limited, heterogeneous, and insufficient to control spread. Methods: We compared SARS-CoV-2 testing rates across geographic regions, over time, and by demographic characteristics (i.e., age and racial/ethnic groups) in Illinois during March through December 2020. We compared age-matched case fatality ratios and infection fatality ratios through time to estimate the fraction of SARS-CoV-2 infections that have been detected through diagnostic testing. Results: By the end of 2020, initial geographic differences in testing rates had closed substantially. Case fatality ratios were higher in non-Hispanic Black and Hispanic/Latino populations in Illinois relative to non-Hispanic White populations, suggesting that tests were insufficient to accurately capture the true burden of COVID-19 disease in the minority populations during the initial epidemic wave. While testing disparities decreased during 2020, Hispanic/Latino populations consistently remained the least tested at 1.87 tests per 1000 population per day compared with 2.58 and 2.87 for non-Hispanic Black and non-Hispanic White populations, respectively, at the end of 2020. Despite a large expansion in testing since the beginning of the first wave of the epidemic, we estimated that over half (50-80%) of all SARS-CoV-2 infections were not detected by diagnostic testing and continued to evade surveillance. Conclusions: Systematic methods for identifying relatively under-tested geographic regions and demographic groups may enable policymakers to regularly monitor and evaluate the shifting landscape of diagnostic testing, allowing officials to prioritize allocation of testing resources to reduce disparities in COVID-19 burden and eventually reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission.

Preexisting immunity shapes distinct antibody landscapes after influenza virus infection and vaccination in humans.

Humans are repeatedly exposed to variants of influenza virus throughout their lifetime. As a result, preexisting influenza-specific memory B cells can dominate the response after infection or vaccination. Memory B cells recalled by adulthood exposure are largely reactive to conserved viral epitopes present in childhood strains, posing unclear consequences on the ability of B cells to adapt to and neutralize newly emerged strains. We sought to investigate the impact of preexisting immunity on generation of protective antibody responses to conserved viral epitopes upon influenza virus infection and vaccination in humans. We accomplished this by characterizing monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) from plasmablasts, which are predominantly derived from preexisting memory B cells. We found that, whereas some influenza infection-induced mAbs bound conserved and neutralizing epitopes on the hemagglutinin (HA) stalk domain or neuraminidase, most of the mAbs elicited by infection targeted non-neutralizing epitopes on nucleoprotein and other unknown antigens. Furthermore, most infection-induced mAbs had equal or stronger affinity to childhood strains, indicating recall of memory B cells from childhood exposures. Vaccination-induced mAbs were similarly induced from past exposures and exhibited substantial breadth of viral binding, although, in contrast to infection-induced mAbs, they targeted neutralizing HA head epitopes. Last, cocktails of infection-induced mAbs displayed reduced protective ability in mice compared to vaccination-induced mAbs. These findings reveal that both preexisting immunity and exposure type shape protective antibody responses to conserved influenza virus epitopes in humans. Natural infection largely recalls cross-reactive memory B cells against non-neutralizing epitopes, whereas vaccination harnesses preexisting immunity to target protective HA epitopes.

Earliest infections predict the age distribution of seasonal influenza A cases.

Seasonal variation in the age distribution of influenza A cases suggests that factors other than age shape susceptibility to medically attended infection. We ask whether these differences can be partly explained by protection conferred by childhood influenza infection, which has lasting impacts on immune responses to influenza and protection against new influenza A subtypes (phenomena known as original antigenic sin and immune imprinting). Fitting a statistical model to data from studies of influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE), we find that primary infection appears to reduce the risk of medically attended infection with that subtype throughout life. This effect is stronger for H1N1 compared to H3N2. Additionally, we find evidence that VE varies with both age and birth year, suggesting that VE is sensitive to early exposures. Our findings may improve estimates of age-specific risk and VE in similarly vaccinated populations and thus improve forecasting and vaccination strategies to combat seasonal influenza.

Using Colonization Assays and Comparative Genomics To Discover Symbiosis Behaviors and Factors in Vibrio fischeri.

The luminous marine Gram-negative bacterium Vibrio (Aliivibrio) fischeri is the natural light organ symbiont of several squid species, including the Hawaiian bobtail squid, Euprymna scolopes, and the Japanese bobtail squid, Euprymna morsei Work with E. scolopes has shown how the bacteria establish their niche in the light organ of the newly hatched host. Two types of V. fischeri strains have been distinguished based upon their behavior in cocolonization competition assays in juvenile E. scolopes, i.e., (i) niche-sharing or (ii) niche-dominant behavior. This study aimed to determine whether these behaviors are observed with other V. fischeri strains or whether they are specific to those isolated from E. scolopes light organs. Cocolonization competition assays between V. fischeri strains isolated from the congeneric squid E. morsei or from other marine animals revealed the same sharing or dominant behaviors. In addition, whole-genome sequencing of these strains showed that the dominant behavior is polyphyletic and not associated with the presence or absence of a single gene or genes. Comparative genomics of 44 squid light organ isolates from around the globe led to the identification of symbiosis-specific candidates in the genomes of these strains. Colonization assays using genetic derivatives with deletions of these candidates established the importance of two such genes in colonization. This study has allowed us to expand the concept of distinct colonization behaviors to strains isolated from a number of squid and fish hosts.IMPORTANCE There is an increasing recognition of the importance of strain differences in the ecology of a symbiotic bacterial species and, in particular, how these differences underlie crucial interactions with their host. Nevertheless, little is known about the genetic bases for these differences, how they manifest themselves in specific behaviors, and their distribution among symbionts of different host species. In this study, we sequenced the genomes of Vibrio fischeri isolated from the tissues of squids and fishes and applied comparative genomics approaches to look for patterns between symbiont lineages and host colonization behavior. In addition, we identified the only two genes that were exclusively present in all V. fischeri strains isolated from the light organs of sepiolid squid species. Mutational studies of these genes indicated that they both played a role in colonization of the squid light organ, emphasizing the value of applying a comparative genomics approach in the study of symbioses.

How can microbial population genomics inform community ecology?

Populations are fundamental units of ecology and evolution, but can we define them for bacteria and archaea in a biologically meaningful way? Here, we review why population structure is difficult to recognize in microbes and how recent advances in measuring contemporary gene flow allow us to identify clearly delineated populations among collections of closely related genomes. Such structure can arise from preferential gene flow caused by coexistence and genetic similarity, defining populations based on biological mechanisms. We show that such gene flow units are sufficiently genetically isolated for specific adaptations to spread, making them also ecological units that are differentially adapted compared to their closest relatives. We discuss the implications of these observations for measuring bacterial and archaeal diversity in the environment. We show that operational taxonomic units defined by 16S rRNA gene sequencing have woefully poor resolution for ecologically defined populations and propose monophyletic clusters of nearly identical ribosomal protein genes as an alternative measure for population mapping in community ecological studies employing metagenomics. These population-based approaches have the potential to provide much-needed clarity in interpreting the vast microbial diversity in human and environmental microbiomes. This article is part of the theme issue 'Conceptual challenges in microbial community ecology'.

Maintenance of Sympatric and Allopatric Populations in Free-Living Terrestrial Bacteria.

For free-living bacteria and archaea, the equivalent of the biological species concept does not exist, creating several obstacles to the study of the processes contributing to microbial diversification. These obstacles are particularly high in soil, where high bacterial diversity inhibits the study of closely related genotypes and therefore the factors structuring microbial populations. Here, we isolated strains within a single Curtobacterium ecotype from surface soil (leaf litter) across a regional climate gradient and investigated the phylogenetic structure, recombination, and flexible gene content of this genomic diversity to infer patterns of gene flow. Our results indicate that microbial populations are delineated by gene flow discontinuities, with distinct populations cooccurring at multiple sites. Bacterial population structure was further delineated by genomic features allowing for the identification of candidate genes possibly contributing to local adaptation. These results suggest that the genetic structure within this bacterium is maintained both by ecological specialization in localized microenvironments (isolation by environment) and by dispersal limitation between geographic locations (isolation by distance).IMPORTANCE Due to the promiscuous exchange of genetic material and asexual reproduction, delineating microbial species (and, by extension, populations) remains challenging. Because of this, the vast majority of microbial studies assessing population structure often compare divergent strains from disparate environments under varied selective pressures. Here, we investigated the population structure within a single bacterial ecotype, a unit equivalent to a eukaryotic species, defined as highly clustered genotypic and phenotypic strains with the same ecological niche. Using a combination of genomic and computational analyses, we assessed the phylogenetic structure, extent of recombination, and flexible gene content of this genomic diversity to infer patterns of gene flow. To our knowledge, this study is the first to do so for a dominant soil bacterium. Our results indicate that bacterial soil populations, similarly to those in other environments, are structured by gene flow discontinuities and exhibit distributional patterns consistent with both isolation by distance and isolation by environment. Thus, both dispersal limitation and local environments contribute to the divergence among closely related soil bacteria as observed in macroorganisms.

A Reverse Ecology Approach Based on a Biological Definition of Microbial Populations.

Delineating ecologically meaningful populations among microbes is important for identifying their roles in environmental and host-associated microbiomes. Here, we introduce a metric of recent gene flow, which when applied to co-existing microbes, identifies congruent genetic and ecological units separated by strong gene flow discontinuities from their next of kin. We then develop a pipeline to identify genome regions within these units that show differential adaptation and allow mapping of populations onto environmental variables or host associations. Using this reverse ecology approach, we show that the human commensal bacterium Ruminococcus gnavus breaks up into sharply delineated populations that show different associations with health and disease. Defining populations by recent gene flow in this way will facilitate the analysis of bacterial and archaeal genomes using ecological and evolutionary theory developed for plants and animals, thus allowing for testing unifying principles across all biology.

Polyclonal symbiont populations in hydrothermal vent tubeworms and the environment.

Horizontally transmitted symbioses usually house multiple and variable symbiont genotypes that are acquired from a much more diverse environmental pool via partner choice mechanisms. However, in the deep-sea hydrothermal vent tubeworm Riftia pachyptila (Vestimentifera, Siboglinidae), it has been suggested that the Candidatus Endoriftia persephone symbiont is monoclonal. Here, we show with high-coverage metagenomics that adult R. pachyptila house a polyclonal symbiont population consisting of one dominant and several low-frequency variants. This dominance of one genotype is confirmed by multilocus gene sequencing of amplified housekeeping genes in a broad range of host individuals where three out of four loci ( atpA, uvrD and recA) revealed no genomic differences, while one locus ( gyrB) was more diverse in adults than in juveniles. We also analysed a metagenome of free-living Endoriftia and found that the free-living population showed greater sequence variability than the host-associated population. Most juveniles and adults shared a specific dominant genotype, while other genotypes can dominate in few individuals. We suggest that although generally permissive, partner choice is selective enough to restrict uptake of some genotypes present in the environment.

A major lineage of non-tailed dsDNA viruses as unrecognized killers of marine bacteria.

The most abundant viruses on Earth are thought to be double-stranded DNA (dsDNA) viruses that infect bacteria. However, tailed bacterial dsDNA viruses (Caudovirales), which dominate sequence and culture collections, are not representative of the environmental diversity of viruses. In fact, non-tailed viruses often dominate ocean samples numerically, raising the fundamental question of the nature of these viruses. Here we characterize a group of marine dsDNA non-tailed viruses with short 10-kb genomes isolated during a study that quantified the diversity of viruses infecting Vibrionaceae bacteria. These viruses, which we propose to name the Autolykiviridae, represent a novel family within the ancient lineage of double jelly roll (DJR) capsid viruses. Ecologically, members of the Autolykiviridae have a broad host range, killing on average 34 hosts in four Vibrio species, in contrast to tailed viruses which kill on average only two hosts in one species. Biochemical and physical characterization of autolykiviruses reveals multiple virion features that cause systematic loss of DJR viruses in sequencing and culture-based studies, and we describe simple procedural adjustments to recover them. We identify DJR viruses in the genomes of diverse major bacterial and archaeal phyla, and in marine water column and sediment metagenomes, and find that their diversity greatly exceeds the diversity that is currently captured by the three recognized families of such viruses. Overall, these data suggest that viruses of the non-tailed dsDNA DJR lineage are important but often overlooked predators of bacteria and archaea that impose fundamentally different predation and gene transfer regimes on microbial systems than on tailed viruses, which form the basis of all environmental models of bacteria-virus interactions.

Environmental vibrios represent a source of antagonistic compounds that inhibit pathogenic Vibrio cholerae and Vibrio parahaemolyticus strains.

With the overuse of antibiotics, many pathogens including Vibrio cholerae and Vibrio parahaemolyticus have evolved multidrug resistance making treatment more difficult. While understanding the mechanisms that underlie pathogenesis is crucial, knowledge of bacterial interactions of V. cholerae and V. parahaemolyticus could provide insight to their susceptibility outside of the human host. Based on previous work showing competition among environmental strains, we predict that marine-derived bacteria should inhibit Vibrio pathogens and may be a source of unique antibiotic compounds. We tested a collection of 3,456 environmental Vibrio isolates from diverse habitats against a panel of V. cholerae and V. parahaemolyticus, and identified 102 strains that inhibited the growth of these pathogens. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that 40 pathogen-inhibiting strains were unique at the hsp60 gene sequence while 62 of the isolates were identical suggesting clonal groups. Genomic comparisons of ten strains revealed diversity even between clonal isolates and were identified as being closely related to known Vibrio crassostreae, Vibrio splendidus, and Vibrio tasmaniensis strains. Further analysis revealed multiple biosynthetic gene clusters within all sequenced genomes that encoded secondary metabolites with potential antagonistic activity. Thus, environmental vibrios represent a source of compounds that inhibit Vibrio pathogens.

Natural resource landscapes of a marine bacterium reveal distinct fitness-determining genes across the genome.

Heterotrophic bacteria exploit diverse microhabitats in the ocean, from particles to transient gradients. Yet the degree to which genes and pathways can contribute to an organism's fitness on such complex and variable natural resource landscapes remains poorly understood. Here, we determine the gene-by-gene fitness of a generalist saprophytic marine bacterium (Vibrio sp. F13 9CS106) on complex resources derived from its natural habitats - copepods (Apocyclops royi) and brown algae (Fucus vesiculosus) - and as reference substrates, glucose and the polysaccharide alginate, derived from brown algal cell walls. We find that resource complexity strongly buffers fitness costs of mutations, and that anabolic rather than catabolic pathways are more stringently required, likely due to functional redundancy in the latter. Moreover, while carbohydrate-rich algae requires several synthesis pathways, protein-rich Apocyclops does not, suggesting this ancestral habitat for Vibrios is a replete medium with metabolically redundant substrates. We also identify a candidate fitness trade-off for algal colonization: deletion of mshA increases mutant fitness. Our results demonstrate that gene fitness depends on habitat composition, and suggest that this generalist uses distinct resources in different natural habitats. The results further indicate that substrate replete conditions may lead to relatively relaxed selection on catabolic genes.

Evidence for Ecological Flexibility in the Cosmopolitan Genus Curtobacterium.

Assigning ecological roles to bacterial taxa remains imperative to understanding how microbial communities will respond to changing environmental conditions. Here we analyze the genus Curtobacterium, as it was found to be the most abundant taxon in a leaf litter community in southern California. Traditional characterization of this taxon predominantly associates it as the causal pathogen in the agricultural crops of dry beans. Therefore, we sought to investigate whether the abundance of this genus was because of its role as a plant pathogen or another ecological role. By collating >24,000 16S rRNA sequences with 120 genomes across the Microbacteriaceae family, we show that Curtobacterium has a global distribution with a predominant presence in soil ecosystems. Moreover, this genus harbors a high diversity of genomic potential for the degradation of carbohydrates, specifically with regards to structural polysaccharides. We conclude that Curtobacterium may be responsible for the degradation of organic matter within litter communities.

Adaptive radiation by waves of gene transfer leads to fine-scale resource partitioning in marine microbes.

Adaptive radiations are important drivers of niche filling, since they rapidly adapt a single clade of organisms to ecological opportunities. Although thought to be common for animals and plants, adaptive radiations have remained difficult to document for microbes in the wild. Here we describe a recent adaptive radiation leading to fine-scale ecophysiological differentiation in the degradation of an algal glycan in a clade of closely related marine bacteria. Horizontal gene transfer is the primary driver in the diversification of the pathway leading to several ecophysiologically differentiated Vibrionaceae populations adapted to different physical forms of alginate. Pathway architecture is predictive of function and ecology, underscoring that horizontal gene transfer without extensive regulatory changes can rapidly assemble fully functional pathways in microbes.