Using experimental reintroductions to resolve the roles of habitat quality and metapopulation dynamics on patch occupancy in fragmented landscapes.

Declines of species in fragmented landscapes can potentially be reversed either by restoring connectivity or restoring local habitat quality. Models fitted to snapshot occupancy data can be used to predict the effectiveness of these actions. However, such inferences can be misleading if the reliability of the habitat and landscape metrics used is unknown. The only way to unambiguously resolve the roles of habitat quality and metapopulation dynamics is to conduct experimental reintroductions to unoccupied patches so that habitat quality can be measured directly from data on vital rates. We, therefore, conducted a 15-year study that involved reintroducing a threatened New Zealand bird to unoccupied forest fragments to obtain reliable data on their habitat quality and reassess initial inferences made by modeling occupancy against habitat and landscape metrics. Although reproductive rates were similar among fragments, subtle differences in adult survival rates resulted in λ (finite rate of increase) estimations of <0.9 for 9 of the 12 fragments that were previously unoccupied. This was the case for only 1 of 14 naturally occupied fragments. This variation in λ largely explained the original occupancy pattern, reversing our original conclusion from occupancy modeling that this occupancy pattern was isolation driven and suggesting that it would be detrimental to increase connectivity without improving local habitat quality. These results illustrate that inferences from snapshot occupancy should be treated with caution and subjected to testing through experimental reintroductions in selected model systems.

Uso de Reintroducciones Experimentales para Determinar las Funciones de la Calidad delHábitat y las Dinámicas Metapoblacionales en la Ocupación de Paisajes Fragmentados Resumen La declinación de las especies en paisajes fragmentados tiene el potencial de ser revertida mediante la restauración de la conectividad o de la calidad del hábitat. Se pueden utilizar los modelos ajustados a los datos de ocupación instantánea para predecir la efectividad de estas acciones. Sin embargo, estas inferencias pueden ser engañosas si se desconoce la confiabilidad de las medidas usadas para el hábitat y el paisaje. La única manera de determinar inequívocamente las funciones de la calidad del hábitat y de las dinámicas metapoblacionales es mediante la realización de reintroducciones experimentales en los fragmentos no ocupados, de tal manera que se puede medir directamente la calidad del hábitat a partir de los datos de las tasas vitales. Por lo tanto, realizamos un estudio de 15 años que involucró la reintroducción de un ave neozelandesa amenazada en fragmentos no ocupados de bosque para así obtener datos confiables de la calidad del hábitat y reevaluar las inferencias iniciales hechas por los modelos de ocupación en relación con las medidas de hábitat y paisaje. Aunque las tasas de reproducción fueron similares entre los fragmentos, algunas diferencias sutiles en las tasas de supervivencia de los adultos resultaron en estimaciones λ (una tasa finita de incremento) <0.9 en nueve de los doce fragmentos que no estaban ocupados previamente. Este fue el caso para uno solo de los 14 fragmentos ocupados naturalmente. Esta variación λ explicó en su mayoría el patrón original de ocupación, revirtiendo nuestra conclusión original obtenida del modelo de ocupación de que este patrón estuvo causado por el aislamiento y sugiriendo que sería perjudicial incrementar la conectividad sin mejorar la calidad del hábitat local. Estos resultados muestran que las inferencias a partir de la ocupación instantánea deberían abordarse con cautela y estar sujetas al análisis mediante reintroducciones experimentales en sistemas modelados selectos.

Capturing the dynamics of small populations: A retrospective assessment using long-term data for an island reintroduction.

The art of population modelling is to incorporate factors essential for capturing a population's dynamics while otherwise keeping the model as simple as possible. However, it is unclear how optimal model complexity should be assessed, and whether this optimal complexity has been affected by recent advances in modelling methodology. This issue is particularly relevant to small populations because they are subject to complex dynamics but inferences about those dynamics are often constrained by small sample sizes. We fitted Bayesian hierarchical models to long-term data on vital rates (survival and reproduction) for the toutouwai Petroica longipes population reintroduced to Tiritiri Matangi, a 220-ha New Zealand island, and quantified the performance of those models in terms of their likelihood of replicating the observed population dynamics. These dynamics consisted of overall growth from 33 (±0.3) to 160 (±6) birds from 1992-2018, including recoveries following five harvest events for further reintroductions to other sites. We initially included all factors found to affect vital rates, which included inbreeding, post-release effects (PRE), density-dependence, sex, age and random annual variation, then progressively removed these factors. We also compared performance of models where data analysis and simulations were done simultaneously to those produced with the traditional two-step approach, where vital rates are estimated first then fed into a separate simulation model. Parametric uncertainty and demographic stochasticity were incorporated in all projections. The essential factors for replicating the population's dynamics were density-dependence in juvenile survival and PRE, i.e. initial depression of survival and reproduction in translocated birds. Inclusion of other factors reduced the precision of projections, and therefore the likelihood of matching observed dynamics. However, this reduction was modest when the modelling was done in an integrated framework. In contrast, projections were much less precise when done with a two-step modelling approach, and the cost of additional parameters was much higher under the two-step approach. These results suggest that minimization of complexity may be less important than accounting for covariances in parameter estimates, which is facilitated by integrating data analysis and population projections using Bayesian methods.

A modelling framework for integrating reproduction, survival and count data when projecting the fates of threatened populations.

A key goal of ecological research is to obtain reliable estimates of population demographic rates, abundance and trends. However, a common challenge when studying wildlife populations is imperfect detection or breeding observation, which results in unknown survival status and reproductive output for some individuals. It is important to account for undetected individuals in population models because they contribute to population abundance and dynamics, and can have implications for population management. Promisingly, recent methodological advances provide us with the tools to integrate data from multiple independent sources to gain insights into the unobserved component of populations. We use data from five reintroduced populations of a threatened New Zealand bird, the hihi (Notiomystis cincta), to develop an integrated population modelling framework that allows missing values for survival status, sex and reproductive output to be modelled. Our approach combines parallel matrices of encounter and reproduction histories from marked individuals, as well as counts of unmarked recruits detected at the start of each breeding season. Integrating these multiple data types enabled us to simultaneously model survival and reproduction of detected individuals, undetected individuals and unknown (never detected) individuals to derive parameter estimates and projections based on all available data, thereby improving our understanding of population dynamics and enabling full propagation of uncertainty. The methods presented will be especially useful for management programmes for populations that are intensively monitored but where individuals are still imperfectly detected, as will be the case for most threatened wild populations.

Using long-term data for a reintroduced population to empirically estimate future consequences of inbreeding.

Inbreeding depression is an important long-term threat to reintroduced populations. However, the strength of inbreeding depression is difficult to estimate in wild populations because pedigree data are inevitably incomplete and because good data are needed on survival and reproduction. Predicting future population consequences is especially difficult because this also requires projecting future inbreeding levels and their impacts on long-term population dynamics, which are subject to many uncertainties. We illustrate how such projections can be derived through Bayesian state-space modeling methods based on a 26-year data set for North Island Robins (Petroica longipes) reintroduced to Tiritiri Matangi Island in 1992. We used pedigree data to model increases in the average inbreeding level (F) over time based on kinship of possible breeding pairs and to estimate empirically Ne /N (effective/census population size). We used multiple imputation to model the unknown components of inbreeding coefficients, which allowed us to estimate effects of inbreeding on survival for all 1458 birds in the data set while modeling density dependence and environmental stochasticity. This modeling indicated that inbreeding reduced juvenile survival (1.83 lethal equivalents [SE 0.81]) and may have reduced subsequent adult survival (0.44 lethal equivalents [0.81]) but had no apparent effect on numbers of fledglings produced. Average inbreeding level increased to 0.10 (SE 0.001) as the population grew from 33 (0.3) to 160 (6) individuals over the 25 years, giving a Ne/N ratio of 0.56 (0.01). Based on a model that also incorporated habitat regeneration, the population was projected to reach a maximum of 331-1144 birds (median 726) in 2130, then to begin a slow decline. Without inbreeding, the population would be expected stabilize at 887-1465 birds (median 1131). Such analysis, therefore, makes it possible to empirically derive the information needed for rational decisions about inbreeding management while accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty.

Uso de Datos a Largo Plazo de una Población Reintroducida para Estimar Empíricamente las Consecuencias Futuras de la Endogamia Resumen La depresión endogámica es una amenaza importante a largo plazo para las poblaciones reintroducidas. Sin embargo, es complicado estimar la fuerza de la depresión endogámica en las poblaciones silvestres porque los datos sobre el linaje sin duda estarán incompletos y porque se necesitan datos sólidos sobre la supervivencia y la reproducción. Es especialmente difícil predecir las consecuencias poblacionales a futuro pues esto requiere proyectar a futuro los niveles de endogamia y sus impactos sobre las dinámicas poblacionales a largo plazo, las cuales están sujetas a muchas incertidumbres. Ilustramos cómo dichas proyecciones pueden derivarse mediante métodos de modelado bayesiano de estado-espacio basados en un conjunto de datos obtenidos durante 26 años para los tordos de la Isla del Norte (Petroica longipes) reintroducidos a la isla Tiritiri Matangi en 1992. Usamos datos de linaje para modelar los incrementos en el nivel promedio de endogamia ( F̲ ) a lo largo del tiempo con base en el parentesco de las posibles parejas reproductoras y para estimar empíricamente Ne/N (tamaño poblacional efectivo/por censo). Usamos una imputación múltiple para modelar los componentes desconocidos de los coeficientes de endogamia, lo que nos permitió estimar los efectos de la endogamia sobre la supervivencia para todas las aves (1458) incluidas en el conjunto de datos a la vez que modelamos la dependencia de la densidad y la estocasticidad ambiental. Este modelado indicó que la endogamia redujo la supervivencia juvenil (1.83 equivalentes letales [SE 0.81]) y podría haber reducido la subsecuente supervivencia adulta (0.44 equivalentes letales [0.81]) pero no tuvo un efecto aparente sobre los números de polluelos producidos. El nivel promedio de endogamia incrementó a 0.10 (SE 0.001) conforme la población creció de 33 (0.3) a 160 (6) individuos a lo largo de los 25 años, lo que resultó en una proporción Ne/N de 0.56 (0.01). Con base en un modelo que también incorporó la regeneración del hábitat, se proyectó que la población alcanzaría un máximo de 331-1144 aves (mediana: 726) para 2130 y después comenzaría una lenta disminución. Sin la endogamia, se esperaría que la población se estabilizaría con 887-1465 (mediana: 1131) aves. Por lo tanto, dicho análisis hace posible la derivación empírica de la información necesaria para las decisiones racionales sobre el manejo de la endogamia a la vez que considera a varias fuentes de incertidumbre.

Consequences Matter: Compassion in Conservation Means Caring for Individuals, Populations and Species.

Human activity affecting the welfare of wild vertebrates, widely accepted to be sentient, and therefore deserving of moral concern, is widespread. A variety of motives lead to the killing of individual wild animals. These include to provide food, to protect stock and other human interests, and also for sport. The acceptability of such killing is widely believed to vary with the motive and method. Individual vertebrates are also killed by conservationists. Whether securing conservation goals is an adequate reason for such killing has recently been challenged. Conventional conservation practice has tended to prioritise ecological collectives, such as populations and species, when their interests conflict with those of individuals. Supporters of the 'Compassionate Conservation' movement argue both that conservationists have neglected animal welfare when such conflicts arise and that no killing for conservation is justified. We counter that conservationists increasingly seek to adhere to high standards of welfare, and that the extreme position advocated by some supporters of 'Compassionate Conservation', rooted in virtue ethics, would, if widely accepted, lead to considerable negative effects for conservation. Conservation practice cannot afford to neglect consequences. Moreover, the do-no-harm maxim does not always lead to better outcomes for animal welfare.

Survival rates of oil-rehabilitated and non-rehabilitated little penguins after the C/V Rena oil spill, New Zealand.

We monitored the post-release survival of little penguins (Eudyptula minor) rehabilitated after the 2011 C/V Rena oil spill in New Zealand to assess the effectiveness of the rehabilitation process. Surveys were conducted over a 23-month period after the spill to assess whether survival differed between rehabilitated and control penguins. Survival probabilities from mark-recapture analyses were lower for both oiled and control penguins in the first six months of the study (monthly probability 0.92) but increased and remained high thereafter (monthly probabilities 0.97-1.0). Importantly, survival did not differ significantly between oiled and control birds throughout the study. Post-release survival of rehabilitated birds was not influenced by the degree of oiling, body mass (at admission or release), blood parameters (admission packed cell volume, total protein or blood glucose) or the duration of captivity. Rehabilitation therefore appeared to successfully reverse the negative effects of oiling on the post-release survival of treated penguins.

Links between personality, early natal nutrition and survival of a threatened bird.

There is growing recognition that variation in animal personality traits can influence survival and reproduction rates, and consequently may be important for wildlife population dynamics. Despite this, the integration of personality research into conservation has remained uncommon. Alongside the establishment of personality as an important source of individual variation has come an increasing interest in factors affecting the development of personality. Recent work indicates the early environment, including natal nutrition, may play a stronger role in the development of personality than previously thought. In this study, we investigated the importance of three personality metrics (activity, boldness and acclimation time) for estimating survival of a threatened species, the hihi (Notiomystis cincta), and evaluated the influence of early natal nutrition on those metrics. Our results showed that boldness (as measured from a one-off cage test) had a positive effect on the probability of juvenile hihi surviving to adulthood. There was also a tendency for juveniles that received carotenoid supplementation in the nest to be bolder than those that did not, suggesting that the early environment had some influence on the expression of boldness in juvenile hihi. Linking the development of personality traits with ultimate effects on vital rates may benefit conservation management, as it could enable developmentally targeted management interventions. To our knowledge, this study is the first to identify potential linkages between early natal nutrition, personality and fitness in a wild-living population. This article is part of the theme issue 'Linking behaviour to dynamics of populations and communities: application of novel approaches in behavioural ecology to conservation'.

Cost-benefit analysis of acoustic recorders as a solution to sampling challenges experienced monitoring cryptic species.

The inferences that can be made from any study are limited by the quality of the sampling design. By bad luck, when monitoring species that are difficult to detect (cryptic), sampling designs become dictated by what is feasible rather than what is desired. We calibrated and conducted a cost-benefit analysis of four acoustic recorder options that were being considered as potential solutions to several sampling restrictions experienced while monitoring the Australasian bittern, a cryptic wetland bird. Such sampling restrictions are commonly experienced while monitoring many different endangered species, particularly those that are cryptic. The recorder options included mono and stereo devices, with two sound file processing options (visual and audible analysis). Recording devices provided call-count data similar to those collected by field observers but at a fraction of the cost, which meant that "idealistic" sampling regimes, previously thought to be too expensive, became feasible for bitterns. Our study is one of the few to assess the monetary value of recording devices in the context of data quality, allowing trade-offs (and potential solutions) commonly experienced while monitoring cryptic endangered species to be shown and compared more clearly. The ability to overcome challenges of monitoring cryptic species in this way increases research possibilities for data deficient species and is applicable to any species with similar monitoring challenges.

Combining data-derived priors with postrelease monitoring data to predict persistence of reintroduced populations.

Monitoring is an essential part of reintroduction programs, but many years of data may be needed to obtain reliable population projections. This duration can potentially be reduced by incorporating prior information on expected vital rates (survival and fecundity) when making inferences from monitoring data. The prior distributions for these parameters can be derived from data for previous reintroductions, but it is important to account for site-to-site variation. We evaluated whether such informative priors improved our ability to estimate the finite rate of increase (λ) of the North Island robin (Petroica longipes) population reintroduced to Tawharanui Regional Park, New Zealand. We assessed how precision improved with each year of postrelease data added, comparing models that used informative or uninformative priors. The population grew from about 22 to 80 individuals from 2007 to 2016, with λ estimated to be 1.23 if density dependence was included in the model and 1.13 otherwise. Under either model, 7 years of data were required before the lower 95% credible limit for λ was > 1, giving confidence that the population would persist. The informative priors did not reduce this requirement. Data-derived priors are useful before reintroduction because they allow λ to be estimated in advance. However, in the case examined here, the value of the priors was overwhelmed once site-specific monitoring data became available. The Bayesian method presented is logical for reintroduced populations. It allows prior information (used to inform prerelease decisions) to be integrated with postrelease monitoring. This makes full use of the data for ongoing management decisions. However, if the priors properly account for site-to-site variation, they may have little predictive value compared with the site-specific data. This value will depend on the degree of site-to-site variation as well as the quality of the data.

Predicting reintroduction outcomes for highly vulnerable species that do not currently coexist with their key threats.

Predicting reintroduction outcomes before populations are released is inherently challenging. It becomes even more difficult when the species being considered for reintroduction no longer coexists with the key threats limiting its distribution. However, data from other species facing the same threats can be used to make predictions under these circumstances. We used an integrated Bayesian modeling approach to predict growth of a reintroduced population at a range of predator densities when no data are available for the species in the presence of that predator. North Island Saddlebacks (Philesturnus rufusater) were extirpated from mainland New Zealand by exotic mammalian predators, particularly ship rats (black rats [Rattus rattus]) but are now being considered for reintroduction to sites with intensive predator control. We initially modeled data from previous saddleback reintroductions to predator-free sites to predict population growth at a new predator-free site while accounting for random variation in vital rates among sites. We then predicted population growth at different rat-tracking rates (an index of rat density) by incorporating a previously modeled relationship between rat-tracking and vital rates of another predator-sensitive species, the North Island Robin (Petroica longipes), and accounted for greater vulnerability of saddlebacks to rat predation based on information on historical declines of both species. The results allowed population growth to be predicted as a function of management effort while accounting for uncertainty, which means formal decision analysis could be used to decide whether to proceed with a reintroduction. Similar approaches could be applied to other situations where data on the species of interest are limited and provide an alternative to decision making based solely on expert judgment.

Is Reintroduction Biology an Effective Applied Science?

Reintroduction biology is a field of scientific research that aims to inform translocations of endangered species. We review two decades of published literature to evaluate whether reintroduction science is evolving in its decision-support role, as called for by advocates of evidence-based conservation. Reintroduction research increasingly addresses a priori hypotheses, but remains largely focused on short-term population establishment. Similarly, studies that directly assist decisions by explicitly comparing alternative management actions remain a minority. A small set of case studies demonstrate full integration of research in the reintroduction decision process. We encourage the use of tools that embed research in decision-making, particularly the explicit consideration of multiple management alternatives because this is the crux of any management decisions.

Invasive mammal eradication on islands results in substantial conservation gains.

More than US$21 billion is spent annually on biodiversity conservation. Despite their importance for preventing or slowing extinctions and preserving biodiversity, conservation interventions are rarely assessed systematically for their global impact. Islands house a disproportionately higher amount of biodiversity compared with mainlands, much of which is highly threatened with extinction. Indeed, island species make up nearly two-thirds of recent extinctions. Islands therefore are critical targets of conservation. We used an extensive literature and database review paired with expert interviews to estimate the global benefits of an increasingly used conservation action to stem biodiversity loss: eradication of invasive mammals on islands. We found 236 native terrestrial insular faunal species (596 populations) that benefitted through positive demographic and/or distributional responses from 251 eradications of invasive mammals on 181 islands. Seven native species (eight populations) were negatively impacted by invasive mammal eradication. Four threatened species had their International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List extinction-risk categories reduced as a direct result of invasive mammal eradication, and no species moved to a higher extinction-risk category. We predict that 107 highly threatened birds, mammals, and reptiles on the IUCN Red List-6% of all these highly threatened species-likely have benefitted from invasive mammal eradications on islands. Because monitoring of eradication outcomes is sporadic and limited, the impacts of global eradications are likely greater than we report here. Our results highlight the importance of invasive mammal eradication on islands for protecting the world's most imperiled fauna.

Traits influencing range contraction in New Zealand's endemic forest birds.

Understanding vulnerability of endemic taxa to predation is clearly important for conservation management. In New Zealand, predation by introduced mammals such as rats and mustelids is widely recognized as the primary factor responsible for declines of indigenous fauna. The aim of our study was to evaluate the vulnerability of New Zealand's surviving endemic forest bird species to impacts of introduced mammalian predators, and identify key life history attributes underlying this vulnerability. We measured range contraction following the introduction of exotic mammalian predators for 23 endemic forest bird species using information on both pre-human and current distributions. We used Bayesian modeling techniques to analyze whether variation in range contraction was associated with life history traits potentially influencing species' predation vulnerability, while accounting for phylogenetic relatedness. Our results showed that the extent of range contraction varied greatly among species, with some species remaining in available forest habitat throughout most of their pre-human range, and others having disappeared completely from the main islands. Cavity nesting was the key trait associated with more extensive range decline, suggesting that cavity-nesting species are more vulnerable to predation than species that nest in more open sites.

Discriminating the drivers of edge effects on nest predation: forest edges reduce capture rates of ship rats (Rattus rattus), a globally invasive nest predator, by altering vegetation structure.

Forest edges can strongly affect avian nest success by altering nest predation rates, but this relationship is inconsistent and context dependent. There is a need for researchers to improve the predictability of edge effects on nest predation rates by examining the mechanisms driving their occurrence and variability. In this study, we examined how the capture rates of ship rats, an invasive nest predator responsible for avian declines globally, varied with distance from the forest edge within forest fragments in a pastoral landscape in New Zealand. We hypothesised that forest edges would affect capture rates by altering vegetation structure within fragments, and that the strength of edge effects would depend on whether fragments were grazed by livestock. We measured vegetation structure and rat capture rates at 488 locations ranging from 0-212 m from the forest edge in 15 forest fragments, seven of which were grazed. Contrary to the vast majority of previous studies of edge effects on nest predation, ship rat capture rates increased with increasing distance from the forest edge. For grazed fragments, capture rates were estimated to be 78% lower at the forest edge than 118 m into the forest interior (the farthest distance for grazed fragments). This relationship was similar for ungrazed fragments, with capture rates estimated to be 51% lower at the forest edge than 118 m into the forest interior. A subsequent path analysis suggested that these 'reverse' edge effects were largely or entirely mediated by changes in vegetation structure, implying that edge effects on ship rats can be predicted from the response of vegetation structure to forest edges. We suggest the occurrence, strength, and direction of edge effects on nest predation rates may depend on edge-driven changes in local habitat when the dominant predator is primarily restricted to forest patches.

Reversing defaunation: restoring species in a changing world.

The rate of biodiversity loss is not slowing despite global commitments, and the depletion of animal species can reduce the stability of ecological communities. Despite this continued loss, some substantial progress in reversing defaunation is being achieved through the intentional movement of animals to restore populations. We review the full spectrum of conservation translocations, from reinforcement and reintroduction to controversial conservation introductions that seek to restore populations outside their indigenous range or to introduce ecological replacements for extinct forms. We place the popular, but misunderstood, concept of rewilding within this framework and consider the future role of new technical developments such as de-extinction.

Strategic rat control for restoring populations of native species in forest fragments.

Forest fragments have biodiversity value that may be enhanced through management such as control of non-native predators. However, such efforts may be ineffective, and research is needed to ensure that predator control is done strategically. We used Bayesian hierarchical modeling to estimate fragment-specific effects of experimental rat control on a native species targeted for recovery in a New Zealand pastoral landscape. The experiment was a modified BACI (before-after-control-impact) design conducted over 6 years in 19 forest fragments with low-density subpopulations of North Island Robins (Petroica longipes). The aim was to identify individual fragments that not only showed clear benefits of rat control, but also would have a high probability of subpopulation growth even if they were the only fragment managed. We collected data on fecundity, adult and juvenile survival, and juvenile emigration, and modeled the data in an integrated framework to estimate the expected annual growth rate (λ) of each subpopulation with and without rat control. Without emigration, subpopulation growth was estimated as marginal (λ = 0.95-1.05) or negative (λ = 0.74-0.90) without rat control, but it was estimated as positive in all fragments (λ = 1.4-2.1) if rats were controlled. This reflected a 150% average increase in fecundity and 45% average increase in adult female survival. The probability of a juvenile remaining in its natal fragment was 0.37 on average, but varied with fragment connectivity. With juvenile emigration added, 6 fragments were estimated to have a high (>0.8) probability of being self-sustaining (λ > 1) with rat control. The key factors affecting subpopulation growth rates under rat control were low connectivity and stock fencing because these factors were associated with lower juvenile emigration and higher fecundity, respectively. However, there was also substantial random variation in adult survival among fragments, illustrating the importance of hierarchical modeling for fragmentation studies.

How to decide whether to move species threatened by climate change.

Introducing species to areas outside their historical range to secure their future under climate change is a controversial strategy for preventing extinction. While the debate over the wisdom of this strategy continues, such introductions are already taking place. Previous frameworks for analysing the decision to introduce have lacked a quantifiable management objective and mathematically rigorous problem formulation. Here we develop the first rigorous quantitative framework for deciding whether or not a particular introduction should go ahead, which species to prioritize for introduction, and where and how to introduce them. It can also be used to compare introduction with alternative management actions, and to prioritise questions for future research. We apply the framework to a case study of tuatara (Sphenodon punctatus) in New Zealand. While simple and accessible, this framework can accommodate uncertainty in predictions and values. It provides essential support for the existing IUCN guidelines by presenting a quantitative process for better decision-making about conservation introductions.

An integrated approach for predicting fates of reintroductions with demographic data from multiple populations.

We devised a novel approach to model reintroduced populations whereby demographic data collected from multiple sites are integrated into a Bayesian hierarchical model. Integrating data from multiple reintroductions allows more precise population-growth projections to be made, especially for populations for which data are sparse, and allows projections that account for random site-to-site variation to be made before new reintroductions are attempted. We used data from reintroductions of the North Island Robin (Petroica longipes), an endemic New Zealand passerine, to 10 sites where non-native mammalian predators are controlled. A comparison of candidate models that we based on deviance information criterion showed that rat-tracking rate (an index of rat density) was a useful predictor of robin fecundity and adult female survival, that landscape connectivity and a binary measure of whether sites were on a peninsula were useful predictors of apparent juvenile survival (probably due to differential dispersal away from reintroduction sites), and that there was unexplained random variation among sites in all demographic rates. We used the two best supported models to estimate the finite rate of increase (λ) for populations at each of the 10 sites, and for a proposed reintroduction site, under different levels of rat control. Only three of the reintroduction sites had λ distributions completely >1 for either model. At two sites, λ was expected to be >1 if rat-tracking rates were <5%. At the other five reintroduction sites, λ was predicted to be close to 1, and it was unclear whether growth was expected. Predictions of λ for the proposed reintroduction site were less precise than for other sites because distributions incorporated the full range of site-to-site random variation in vital rates. Our methods can be applied to any species for which postrelease data on demographic rates are available and potentially can be extended to model multiple species simultaneously.

Aspergillus fumigatus densities in relation to forest succession and edge effects: implications for wildlife health in modified environments.

The hihi (or stitchbird, Notiomystis cincta) is a New Zealand endemic nectivorous forest bird now restricted to one pristine island. Relocation to establish viable hihi populations on other islands has been the main conservation action since the early 1980s. To date, hihi reintroductions to young growth islands have had poor success despite the absence of mammalian predators. It was thought that past failures were due to food limitation, but research suggests that food limitation alone cannot account for their poor survivorship. Post-mortems of dead hihi has shown that aspergillosis caused by Aspergillus fumigatus is a major mortality factor and there is current concern regarding their susceptibility to this fungal disease. In this paper we develop and assess the hypothesis that A. fumigatus limits hihi population viability on modified islands, and suggest that A. fumigatus is a potential indicator species for habitat disturbance. We report that the prevalence of A. fumigatus spores in the soil is much higher in young growth forests and forest edge habitats. Results suggest that hihi mortality rates between islands are potentially due to differential exposure to A. fumigatus spores. We assess relationships between habitat disturbance, A. fumigatus contamination and hihi mortality rates by testing the following predictions: (1) that densities of A. fumigatus spores will be higher on modified islands, (2) that densities of A. fumigatus spores on islands will be correlated with hihi mortality rates and (3) that densities of A. fumigatus spores will be higher at the forest edge than in the interior. We test each of these predictions using soil samples, air samples and samples of nectar from plant species fed on by hihi.