Estimating the Impact of Vaccination Campaigns on Measles Transmission in Somalia.

Somalia is a complex and fragile setting with a demonstrated potential for disruptive, high-burden measles outbreaks. In response, since 2018, Somalian authorities have partnered with UNICEF and the WHO to implement measles vaccination campaigns across the country. In this paper, we create a Somalia-specific model of measles transmission based on a comprehensive epidemiological dataset including case-based surveillance, vaccine registries, and serological surveys. We use this model to assess the impact of these campaign interventions on Somalian's measles susceptibility, showing, for example, that across the roughly 10 million doses delivered, 1 of every 5 immunized a susceptible child. Finally, we use the model to explore a counter-factual epidemiology without the 2019-2020 campaigns, and we estimate that those interventions prevented over 10,000 deaths.

Rotavirus genotypes in children under five years hospitalized with diarrhea in low and middle-income countries: Results from the WHO-coordinated Global Rotavirus Surveillance Network.

Rotavirus is the most common pathogen causing pediatric diarrhea and an important cause of morbidity and mortality in low- and middle-income countries. Previous evidence suggests that the introduction of rotavirus vaccines in national immunization schedules resulted in dramatic declines in disease burden but may also be changing the rotavirus genetic landscape and driving the emergence of new genotypes. We report genotype data of more than 16,000 rotavirus isolates from 40 countries participating in the Global Rotavirus Surveillance Network. Data from a convenience sample of children under five years of age hospitalized with acute watery diarrhea who tested positive for rotavirus were included. Country results were weighted by their estimated rotavirus disease burden to estimate regional genotype distributions. Globally, the most frequent genotypes identified after weighting were G1P[8] (31%), G1P[6] (8%) and G3P[8] (8%). Genotypes varied across WHO Regions and between countries that had and had not introduced rotavirus vaccine. G1P[8] was less frequent among African (36 vs 20%) and European (33 vs 8%) countries that had introduced rotavirus vaccines as compared to countries that had not introduced. Our results describe differences in the distribution of the most common rotavirus genotypes in children with diarrhea in low- and middle-income countries. G1P[8] was less frequent in countries that had introduced the rotavirus vaccine while different strains are emerging or re-emerging in different regions.

Risk Factors for Mortality Among Children Younger Than Age 5 Years With Severe Diarrhea in Low- and Middle-income Countries: Findings From the World Health Organization-coordinated Global Rotavirus and Pediatric Diarrhea Surveillance Networks.

BACKGROUND: Diarrhea is the second leading cause of death in children younger than 5 years of age globally. The burden of diarrheal mortality is concentrated in low-resource settings. Little is known about the risk factors for childhood death from diarrheal disease in low- and middle-income countries. METHODS: Data from the World Health Organization (WHO)-coordinated Global Rotavirus and Pediatric Diarrhea Surveillance Networks, which are composed of active, sentinel, hospital-based surveillance sites, were analyzed to assess mortality in children <5 years of age who were hospitalized with diarrhea between 2008 and 2018. Case fatality risks were calculated, and multivariable logistic regression was performed to identify risk factors for mortality. RESULTS: This analysis comprises 234 781 cases, including 1219 deaths, across 57 countries. The overall case fatality risk was found to be 0.5%. Risk factors for death in the multivariable analysis included younger age (for <6 months compared with older ages, odds ratio [OR] = 3.54; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.81-4.50), female sex (OR = 1.18; 95% CI, 1.06-1.81), presenting with persistent diarrhea (OR = 1.91; 95% CI, 1.01-3.25), no vomiting (OR = 1.13; 95% CI, .98-1.30), severe dehydration (OR = 3.79; 95% CI, 3.01-4.83), and being negative for rotavirus on an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay test (OR = 2.29; 95% CI, 1.92-2.74). Cases from the African Region had the highest odds of death compared with other WHO regions (OR = 130.62 comparing the African Region with the European Region; 95% CI, 55.72-422.73), whereas cases from the European Region had the lowest odds of death. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings support known risk factors for childhood diarrheal mortality and highlight the need for interventions to address dehydration and rotavirus-negative diarrheal infections.

Progress Toward Measles Elimination - Eastern Mediterranean Region, 2013-2019.

In 1997, during the 41st session of the Regional Committee for the Eastern Mediterranean, the 21 countries in the World Health Organization (WHO) Eastern Mediterranean Region* (EMR) passed a resolution to eliminate† measles (1). In 2015, this goal was included as a priority in the Eastern Mediterranean Vaccine Action Plan 2016-2020 (EMVAP) (2), endorsed at the 62nd session of the Regional Committee (3). To achieve this goal, the WHO Regional Office for the Eastern Mediterranean developed a four-pronged strategy: 1) achieve ≥95% vaccination coverage with the first dose of measles-containing vaccine (MCV1) among children in every district of each country through routine immunization services; 2) achieve ≥95% vaccination coverage with a second MCV dose (MCV2) in every district of each country either through implementation of a routine 2-dose vaccination schedule or through supplementary immunization activities§ (SIAs); 3) conduct high-quality, case-based surveillance in all countries; and 4) provide optimal measles clinical case management, including dietary supplementation with vitamin A (4). This report describes progress toward measles elimination in EMR during 2013-2019 and updates a previous report (5). Estimated MCV1 coverage increased from 79% in 2013 to 82% in 2018. MCV2 coverage increased from 59% in 2013 to 74% in 2018. In addition, during 2013-2019, approximately 326.4 million children received MCV during SIAs. Reported confirmed measles incidence increased from 33.5 per 1 million persons in 2013 to 91.2 in 2018, with large outbreaks occurring in Pakistan, Somalia, and Yemen; incidence decreased to 23.3 in 2019. In 2019, the rate of discarded nonmeasles cases¶ was 5.4 per 100,000 population. To achieve measles elimination in the EMR, increased visibility of efforts to achieve the measles elimination goal is critically needed, as are sustained and predictable investments to increase MCV1 and MCV2 coverage, conduct high-quality SIAs, and reach populations at risk for not accessing immunization services or living in areas with civil strife.

Global impact of rotavirus vaccine introduction on rotavirus hospitalisations among children under 5 years of age, 2008-16: findings from the Global Rotavirus Surveillance Network.

BACKGROUND: Rotavirus vaccine use in national immunisation programmes has led to declines in hospital admissions for rotavirus gastroenteritis among children; however, the global impact of rotavirus vaccine introduction has not been described using primary data. We describe the impact of rotavirus vaccine introduction on admissions for acute rotavirus gastroenteritis in primarily low-income and middle-income countries, using 9 years of data from the WHO-coordinated Global Rotavirus Surveillance Network (GRSN). METHODS: Between Jan 1, 2008, and Dec 31, 2016, children younger than 5 years of age who were admitted to hospital with acute gastroenteritis were prospectively enrolled in GRSN sites. We included sites that enrolled children and collected stool specimens monthly and tested at least 100 specimens annually in the impact analysis, with a separate analysis taking into account site continuity. We compared proportions of acute gastroenteritis cases positive for rotavirus in the pre-vaccine and post-vaccine periods and calculated mean proportion changes for WHO regions, with 95% CIs; these findings were then compared with interrupted time series analyses. We did further sensitivity analyses to account for rotavirus vaccination coverage levels and sites that collected specimens for at least 11 months per year and tested at least 80 specimens per year. We also analysed the age distribution of rotavirus-positive cases before and after vaccine introduction. FINDINGS: 403 140 children younger than 5 years of age admitted to hospital with acute gastroenteritis from 349 sites in 82 countries were enrolled over the study period, of whom 132 736 (32·9%) were positive for rotavirus. We included 305 789 children from 198 sites in 69 countries in the impact analysis. In countries that had not introduced rotavirus vaccine in their national immunisation programmes, rotavirus was detected in 38·0% (95% CI 4·8-73·4) of admissions for acute gastroenteritis annually whereas in those that have introduced the vaccine, rotavirus was detected in 23·0% (0·7-57·7) of admissions for acute gastroenteritis, showing a 39·6% (35·4-43·8) relative decline following introduction. Interrupted time series analyses confirmed these findings. Reductions by WHO regions ranged from 26·4% (15·0-37·8) in the Eastern Mediterranean Region to 55·2% (43·0-67·4) in the European Region and were sustained in nine countries (contributing up to 31 sites) for 6-10 years. The age distribution of children with rotavirus gastroenteritis shifted towards older children after rotavirus vaccine introduction. INTERPRETATION: A significant and sustained reduction in the proportion of hospital admissions for acute gastroenteritis due to rotavirus was seen among children younger than 5 years in GRSN sites following rotavirus vaccine introduction. These findings highlight the need to incorporate rotavirus vaccines into immunisation programmes in countries that have not yet introduced them and underline the importance of high-quality surveillance. FUNDING: The GRSN receives funding from Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. No specific funding was provided for this Article.

Hepatitis B control among children in the Eastern Mediterranean Region of the World Health Organization.

In the pre-vaccination era, the prevalence of chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection in the World Health Organization (WHO) Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) ranged from two to seven percent in a total population of over 580 million people. Mortality estimates place cirrhosis among the top ten causes of years of life lost in the EMR. The region has made notable achievements, improving coverage from only 6% in 1992, when WHO recommended hepatitis B vaccination of all infants, to 83% in 2014. Member states adopted a hepatitis B control target in 2009 to reduce chronic hepatitis B virus infection prevalence to less than one percent among children aged <5 years by 2015. This report reviews progress toward achievement, challenges faced, and the next steps forward of hepatitis B control among children in the EMR.

Bacterial meningitis surveillance in the Eastern Mediterranean region, 2005-2010: successes and challenges of a regional network.

OBJECTIVE: To describe epidemiology of bacterial meningitis in the World Health Organization Eastern Mediterranean Region countries and assist in introduction of new bacterial vaccines. STUDY DESIGN: A laboratory-based sentinel surveillance was established in 2004, and up to 10 countries joined the network until 2010. Personnel at participating hospitals and national public health laboratories received training in surveillance and laboratory methods and used standard clinical and laboratory-confirmed case definitions. RESULTS: Over 22,000 suspected cases of meningitis were reported among children ≤5 years old and >6600 among children >5 years old. In children ≤5 years old, 921 of 13,125 probable cases (7.0%) were culture-confirmed. The most commonly isolated pathogens were S pneumoniae (27% of confirmed cases), N meningitidis (22%), and H influenzae (10%). Among culture-confirmed case-patients with known outcome, case-fatality rate was 7.0% and 12.2% among children ≤5 years old and those >5 years old, respectively. Declining numbers of Haemophilus influenzae type b meningitis cases within 2 years post-Haemophilus influenzae type b conjugate vaccine introduction were observed in Pakistan. CONCLUSIONS: Bacterial meningitis continues to cause significant morbidity and mortality in the Eastern Mediterranean Region. Surveillance networks for bacterial meningitis ensure that all sites are using standardized methodologies. Surveillance data are useful to monitor impact of various interventions including vaccines, but maintaining data quality requires consistent reporting and regular technical support.