Refracture and mortality risk in the elderly with osteoporotic fractures: the AGES-Reykjavik study.

There is imminent refracture risk in elderly individuals for up to six years, with a decline thereafter except in women below 75 who face a constant elevated risk. Elderly men with fractures face the highest mortality risk, particularly those with hip and vertebral fractures. Targeted monitoring and treatment strategies are recommended. PURPOSE: Current management and interventions for osteoporotic fractures typically focus on bone mineral density loss, resulting in suboptimal evaluation of fracture risk. The aim of the study is to understand the progression of fractures to refractures and mortality in the elderly using multi-state models to better target those at risk. METHODS: This prospective, observational study analysed data from the AGES-Reykjavik cohort of Icelandic elderly, using multi-state models to analyse the evolution of fractures into refractures and mortality, and to estimate the probability of future events in subjects based on prognostic factors. RESULTS: At baseline, 4778 older individuals aged 65 years and older were included. Elderly men, and elderly women above 80 years of age, had a distinct imminent refracture risk that lasted between 2-6 years, followed by a sharp decline. However, elderly women below 75 continued to maintain a nearly constant refracture risk profile for ten years. Hip (30-63%) and vertebral (24-55%) fractures carried the highest 5-year mortality burden for elderly men and women, regardless of age, and for elderly men over 80, lower leg fractures also posed a significant mortality risk. CONCLUSION: The risk of refracture significantly increases in the first six years following the initial fracture. Elderly women, who experience fractures at a younger age, should be closely monitored to address their long-term elevated refracture risk. Elderly men, especially those with hip and vertebral fractures, face substantial mortality risk and require prioritized monitoring and treatment.

Development of a Multivariable Model to Predict the Need for Bone Marrow Sampling in Persons With Monoclonal Gammopathy of Undetermined Significance : A Cohort Study Nested in a Clinical Trial.

BACKGROUND: Monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS) and smoldering multiple myeloma (SMM) are asymptomatic precursor conditions to multiple myeloma and related disorders. Smoldering multiple myeloma is distinguished from MGUS by 10% or greater bone marrow plasma cells (BMPC) on sampling, has a higher risk for progression, and requires specialist management. OBJECTIVE: To develop a multivariable prediction model that predicts the probability that a person with presumed MGUS has 10% or greater BMPC (SMM or worse by bone marrow criteria) to inform the decision to obtain a bone marrow sample and compare its performance to the Mayo Clinic risk stratification model. DESIGN: iStopMM (Iceland Screens, Treats or Prevents Multiple Myeloma), a prospective population-based screening study of MGUS. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT03327597). SETTING: Icelandic population of adults aged 40 years or older. PATIENTS: 1043 persons with IgG, IgA, light-chain, and biclonal MGUS detected by screening and an interpretable bone marrow sample. MEASUREMENTS: Monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance isotype; monoclonal protein concentration; free light-chain ratio; and total IgG, IgM, and IgA concentrations were used as predictors. Bone marrow plasma cells were categorized as 0% to 4%, 5% to 9%, 10% to 14%, or 15% or greater. RESULTS: The c-statistic for SMM or worse was 0.85 (95% CI, 0.82 to 0.88), and calibration was excellent (intercept, -0.07; slope, 0.95). At a threshold of 10% predicted risk for SMM or worse, sensitivity was 86%, specificity was 67%, positive predictive value was 32%, and negative predictive value was 96%. Compared with the Mayo Clinic model, the net benefit for the decision to refer for sampling was between 0.13 and 0.30 higher over a range of plausible low-risk thresholds. LIMITATION: The prediction model will require external validation. CONCLUSION: This accurate prediction model for SMM or worse was developed in a population-based cohort of persons with presumed MGUS and may be used to defer bone marrow sampling and referral to hematology. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: International Myeloma Foundation and the European Research Council.

Nocturnal gastro-oesophageal reflux and respiratory symptoms are increased in sleep apnoea: comparison with the general population.

AIM: To assess respiratory symptoms and nocturnal gastro-oesophageal reflux (nGER) among untreated obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA) patients, compared with the general population. Also, if nGER associates differently with respiratory symptoms among OSA patients. METHODS: 2 study cohorts were included: 822 newly diagnosed subjects with moderate-severe OSA and 738 Icelandic general population study participants. All participants answered the same questionnaires. Those reporting nGER symptoms at least once per week were defined as 'with nGER'; those without nGER symptoms and without nGER medication were defined as 'no nGER'; and other participants were defined as having 'possible nGER'. Propensity score-based weights were used to minimise confounding and selection bias and facilitate causal interpretations. RESULTS: The prevalence of nGER among OSA patients was 14.1%, compared with 5.8% in the general population. This increased prevalence in OSA was not explained by differences in age, gender, body mass index, smoking, hypertension and diabetes (adjusted OR (95% CI)=3.79 (2.24 to 6.43)). OSA patients 'with nGER' and with 'possible nGER' reported more wheezing (44% and 44% vs 25%, respectively) and productive cough (47% and 42% vs 29%, respectively), compared with OSA patients with 'no nGER'. The same pattern was seen in the general population, although with a generally lower prevalence. The effect of nGER on respiratory symptoms was similar between the two cohorts. CONCLUSION: nGER was more often reported among untreated moderate-severe OSA patients than in the general population. Participants with nGER had more wheezing and productive cough, both among untreated OSA patients and in the general population.

Plasma proteomic signature of human longevity.

The identification of protein targets that exhibit anti-aging clinical potential could inform interventions to lengthen the human health span. Most previous proteomics research has been focused on chronological age instead of longevity. We leveraged two large population-based prospective cohorts with long follow-ups to evaluate the proteomic signature of longevity defined by survival to 90 years of age. Plasma proteomics was measured using a SOMAscan assay in 3067 participants from the Cardiovascular Health Study (discovery cohort) and 4690 participants from the Age Gene/Environment Susceptibility-Reykjavik Study (replication cohort). Logistic regression identified 211 significant proteins in the CHS cohort using a Bonferroni-adjusted threshold, of which 168 were available in the replication cohort and 105 were replicated (corrected p value <0.05). The most significant proteins were GDF-15 and N-terminal pro-BNP in both cohorts. A parsimonious protein-based prediction model was built using 33 proteins selected by LASSO with 10-fold cross-validation and validated using 27 available proteins in the validation cohort. This protein model outperformed a basic model using traditional factors (demographics, height, weight, and smoking) by improving the AUC from 0.658 to 0.748 in the discovery cohort and from 0.755 to 0.802 in the validation cohort. We also found that the associations of 169 out of 211 proteins were partially mediated by physical and/or cognitive function. These findings could contribute to the identification of biomarkers and pathways of aging and potential therapeutic targets to delay aging and age-related diseases.

Adverse Childhood Experiences and Adult Mental Health Outcomes.

Importance: Exposure to adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) has consistently been associated with multiple negative mental health outcomes extending into adulthood. However, given that ACEs and psychiatric disorders cluster within families, it remains to be comprehensively assessed to what extent familial confounding contributes to associations between ACEs and clinically confirmed adult psychiatric disorders. Objective: To investigate whether associations between ACEs and adult mental health outcomes remain after adjusting for familial (genetic and environmental) confounding. Design, Setting, and Participants: This Swedish twin cohort study used a discordant twin pair design based on monozygotic (MZ) and dizygotic (DZ) twins. A total of 25 252 adult twins (aged 18-47 years) from the Swedish Twin Registry born between 1959 and 1998 were followed up from age 19 years until 2016, with a maximum follow-up time of 39 years. Data were analyzed from April 2022 to November 2023. Exposures: A total of 7 ACEs, including family violence, emotional abuse or neglect, physical neglect, physical abuse, sexual abuse, rape, and hate crime, were assessed with items from the Life Stressor Checklist-Revised in a web-based survey. Main Outcomes and Measures: Adult (ages >18 years) clinical diagnosis of psychiatric disorders (ie, depressive, anxiety, alcohol or drug misuse, or stress-related disorders) were obtained from the Swedish National Patient Register. Results: Of 25 252 twins included in the study (15 038 female [59.6%]; mean [SD] age at ACE assessment, 29.9 [8.7] years), 9751 individuals (38.6%) reported exposure to at least 1 ACE. A greater number of ACEs was associated with increased odds of any psychiatric disorder in the full cohort (odds ratio [OR] per additional ACE, 1.52; 95% CI, 1.48-1.57). The association remained but ORs per additional ACE were attenuated in DZ (1.29; 95% CI, 1.14-1.47) and MZ (1.20; 95% CI, 1.02-1.40) twin pairs. Individuals who were exposed to sexual abuse compared with those who were not exposed had increased odds of any clinically confirmed psychiatric disorder in all comparisons: full cohort (OR, 3.09; 95% CI, 2.68-3.56), DZ twin pairs (OR, 2.10; 95% CI, 1.33-3.32), and MZ twin pairs (1.80; 95% CI, 1.04-3.11). Conclusions and relevance: This study found that associations between ACEs and adult mental health outcomes remained after controlling for shared genetic and environmental factors, which was particularly evident after multiple ACEs or sexual abuse. These findings suggest that targeted interventions may be associated with reduced risks of future psychopathology.

Polysomnographic characteristics of excessive daytime sleepiness phenotypes in obstructive sleep apnea: results from the international sleep apnea global interdisciplinary consortium.

STUDY OBJECTIVES: Excessive daytime sleepiness (EDS) is a major symptom of obstructive sleep apnea (OSA). Traditional polysomnographic (PSG) measures only partially explain EDS in OSA. This study analyzed traditional and novel PSG characteristics of two different measures of EDS among patients with OSA. METHODS: Sleepiness was assessed using the Epworth Sleepiness Scale (>10 points defined as "risk of dozing") and a measure of general sleepiness (feeling sleepy ≥ 3 times/week defined as "feeling sleepy"). Four sleepiness phenotypes were identified: "non-sleepy," "risk of dozing only," "feeling sleepy only," and "both at risk of dozing and feeling sleepy." RESULTS: Altogether, 2083 patients with OSA (69% male) with an apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) ≥ 5 events/hour were studied; 46% were "non-sleepy," 26% at "risk of dozing only," 7% were "feeling sleepy only," and 21% reported both. The two phenotypes at "risk of dozing" had higher AHI, more severe hypoxemia (as measured by oxygen desaturation index, minimum and average oxygen saturation [SpO2], time spent < 90% SpO2, and hypoxic impacts) and they spent less time awake, had shorter sleep latency, and higher heart rate response to arousals than "non-sleepy" and "feeling sleepy only" phenotypes. While statistically significant, effect sizes were small. Sleep stages, frequency of arousals, wake after sleep onset and limb movement did not differ between sleepiness phenotypes after adjusting for confounders. CONCLUSIONS: In a large international group of patients with OSA, PSG characteristics were weakly associated with EDS. The physiological measures differed among individuals characterized as "risk of dozing" or "non-sleepy," while "feeling sleepy only" did not differ from "non-sleepy" individuals.

Childhood maltreatment and risk of endocrine diseases: an exploration of mediating pathways using sequential mediation analysis.

BACKGROUND: Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs), including childhood maltreatment, have been linked with increased risk of diabetes and obesity during adulthood. A comprehensive assessment on the associations between childhood maltreatment and all major endocrine diseases, as well as the relative importance of different proposed mechanistic pathways on these associations, is currently lacking. METHODS: Based on the UK Biobank, we constructed a cohort including 151,659 participants with self-reported data on childhood maltreatment who were 30 years of age or older on/after January 1, 1985. All participants were followed from the index date (i.e., January 1, 1985, or their 30th birthday, whichever came later) until the first diagnosis of any or specific (12 individual diagnoses and 9 subtypes) endocrine diseases, death, or the end of follow-up (December 31, 2019), whichever occurred first. We used Cox models to examine the association of childhood maltreatment, treated as continuous (i.e., the cumulative number of experienced childhood maltreatment), ordinal (i.e., 0, 1 and ≥ 2), or binary (< 2 and ≥ 2) variable, with any and specific endocrine diseases, adjusted for multiple covariates. We further examined the risk of having multiple endocrine diseases using Linear or Logistic Regression models. Then, sequential mediation analyses were performed to assess the contribution of four possible mechanisms (i.e., suboptimal socioeconomic status (SES), psychological adversities, unfavorable lifestyle, and biological alterations) on the observed associations. RESULTS: During an average follow-up of 30.8 years, 20,885 participants received a diagnosis of endocrine diseases. We observed an association between the cumulative number of experienced childhood maltreatment and increased risk of being diagnosed with any endocrine disease (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) = 1.10, 95% confidence interval 1.09-1.12). The HR was 1.26 (1.22-1.30) when comparing individuals ≥ 2 with those with < 2 experienced childhood maltreatment. We further noted the most pronounced associations for type 2 diabetes (1.40 (1.33-1.48)) and hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA)-axis-related endocrine diseases (1.38 (1.17-1.62)), and the association was stronger for having multiple endocrine diseases, compared to having one (odds ratio (95% CI) = 1.24 (1.19-1.30), 1.35 (1.27-1.44), and 1.52 (1.52-1.53) for 1, 2, and ≥ 3, respectively). Sequential mediation analyses showed that the association between childhood maltreatment and endocrine diseases was consistently and most distinctly mediated by psychological adversities (15.38 ~ 44.97%), while unfavorable lifestyle (10.86 ~ 25.32%) was additionally noted for type 2 diabetes whereas suboptimal SES (14.42 ~ 39.33%) for HPA-axis-related endocrine diseases. CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrates that adverse psychological sequel of childhood maltreatment constitutes the main pathway to multiple endocrine diseases, particularly type 2 diabetes and HPA-axis-related endocrine diseases. Therefore, increased access to evidence-based mental health services may also be pivotal in reducing the risk of endocrine diseases among childhood maltreatment-exposed individuals.

Serum proteomics reveals APOE dependent and independent protein signatures in Alzheimer's disease.

The current demand for early intervention, prevention, and treatment of late onset Alzheimer's disease (LOAD) warrants deeper understanding of the underlying molecular processes which could contribute to biomarker and drug target discovery. Utilizing high-throughput proteomic measurements in serum from a prospective population-based cohort of older adults (n = 5,294), we identified 303 unique proteins associated with incident LOAD (median follow-up 12.8 years). Over 40% of these proteins were associated with LOAD independently of APOE-ε4 carrier status. These proteins were implicated in neuronal processes and overlapped with protein signatures of LOAD in brain and cerebrospinal fluid. We found 17 proteins which LOAD-association was strongly dependent on APOE-ε4 carrier status. Most of them showed consistent associations with LOAD in cerebrospinal fluid and a third had brain-specific gene expression. Remarkably, four proteins in this group (TBCA, ARL2, S100A13 and IRF6) were downregulated by APOE-ε4 yet upregulated as a consequence of LOAD as determined in a bi-directional Mendelian randomization analysis, reflecting a potential response to the disease onset. Accordingly, the direct association of these proteins to LOAD was reversed upon APOE-ε4 genotype adjustment, a finding which we replicate in an external cohort (n = 719). Our findings provide an insight into the dysregulated pathways that may lead to the development and early detection of LOAD, including those both independent and dependent on APOE-ε4. Importantly, many of the LOAD-associated proteins we find in the circulation have been found to be expressed - and have a direct link with AD - in brain tissue. Thus, the proteins identified here, and their upstream modulating pathways, provide a new source of circulating biomarker and therapeutic target candidates for LOAD.

Prior cancer and risk of monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance: a population-based study in Iceland and Sweden.

There is some evidence that a prior cancer is a risk factor for the development of multiple myeloma (MM). If this is true, prior cancer should be associated with higher prevalence or increased progression rate of monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS), the precursor of MM and related disorders. Those with a history of cancer might therefore present a target population for MGUS screening. This two-part study is the first study to evaluate the relationship of MGUS and prior cancers. First, we evaluated whether prior cancers were associated with having MGUS at the time of screening in the Iceland Screens Treats or Prevents Multiple Myeloma (iStopMM) study that includes 75,422 individuals screened for MGUS. Next, we evaluated the association of prior cancer and the progression of MGUS to MM and related disorders in a population-based cohort of 13,790 Swedish individuals with MGUS. A history of prior cancer was associated with a modest increase in the risk of MGUS (odds ratio (OR)= 1.10; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.00-1.20). This excess risk was limited to prior cancers in the year preceding MGUS screening. A history of prior cancer associated with the progression of MGUS, except for myeloid malignancies which were associated with lower risk of progression (hazard ratio (HR)=0.37; 95%CI: 0.16-0.89; p=0.028). Our findings indicate that a prior cancer are not a significant aetiological factor in plasma cell disorders. The findings do not warrant MGUS screening or different management of MGUS in those with a prior cancer.

Proteomic associations with forced expiratory volume: a Mendelian randomisation study.

BACKGROUND: A decline in forced expiratory volume (FEV1) is a hallmark of respiratory diseases that are an important cause of morbidity among the elderly. While some data exist on biomarkers that are related to FEV1, we sought to do a systematic analysis of causal relations of biomarkers with FEV1. METHODS: Data from the population-based AGES-Reykjavik study were used. Serum proteomic measurements were done using 4782 DNA aptamers (SOMAmers). Data from 1479 participants with spirometric data were used to assess the association of SOMAmer measurements with FEV1 using linear regression. Bi-directional two-sample Mendelian randomisation (MR) analyses were done to assess causal relations of observationally associated SOMAmers with FEV1, using genotype and SOMAmer data from 5368 AGES-Reykjavik participants and genetic associations with FEV1 from a publicly available GWAS (n = 400,102). RESULTS: In observational analyses, 530 SOMAmers were associated with FEV1 after multiple testing adjustment (FDR < 0.05). The most significant were Retinoic Acid Receptor Responder 2 (RARRES2), R-Spondin 4 (RSPO4) and Alkaline Phosphatase, Placental Like 2 (ALPPL2). Of the 257 SOMAmers with genetic instruments available, eight were associated with FEV1 in MR analyses. Three were directionally consistent with the observational estimate, Thrombospondin 2 (THBS2), Endoplasmic Reticulum Oxidoreductase 1 Beta (ERO1B) and Apolipoprotein M (APOM). THBS2 was further supported by a colocalization analysis. Analyses in the reverse direction, testing whether changes in SOMAmer levels were caused by changes in FEV1, were performed but no significant associations were found after multiple testing adjustments. CONCLUSIONS: In summary, this large scale proteogenomic analyses of FEV1 reveals circulating protein markers of FEV1, as well as several proteins with potential causality to lung function.

Adverse childhood experiences and psychological functioning among women with schizophrenia or bipolar disorder: population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) are well-known risk factors for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. AIMS: The aim was to study the associations between specific ACEs and psychological functioning in women with schizophrenia or bipolar disorder. METHOD: Among 29 367 women (mean age 44 years) from the Icelandic Stress-And-Gene-Analysis (SAGA) study, 534 (1.8%, mean age 40) reported having been diagnosed with schizophrenia or bipolar disorder, which were combined to 'severe mental disorders'. Participants reported on 13 types of ACEs, childhood deprivation and psychological functioning (defined as coping ability and current symptoms of depression, anxiety and sleep disturbances). Adjusted Poisson regression calculated prevalence ratios (PRs) between ACEs and severe mental disorders. Linear regression assessed the association between ACEs and psychological functioning among women with a severe mental disorder. RESULTS: Women with a severe mental disorder reported more ACEs (mean 4.57, s.d. = 2.82) than women without (mean 2.51, s.d. = 2.34) in a dose-dependent manner (fully-adjusted PR = 1.23 per ACE, 95% CI 1.20-1.27). After mutual adjustment for other ACEs, emotional abuse, sexual abuse, mental illness of a household member, emotional neglect, bullying and collective violence were associated with severe mental disorders. Among women with severe mental disorders, a higher number of ACEs was associated with increased symptom burden of depression (ß = 2.79, 95% CI = 1.19-4.38) and anxiety (ß = 2.04, 95% CI = 0.99-3.09) including poorer sleep quality (ß = 0.83, 95% CI = 0.07-1.59). Findings were similar for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder separately. CONCLUSION: Women with schizophrenia or bipolar disorder show a strong history of ACEs, which may interfere with their psychological functioning and, therefore, need to be addressed as part of their treatment, for example, with trauma-focused psychotherapy.

Vascular Age Assessed From an Uncalibrated, Noninvasive Pressure Waveform by Using a Deep Learning Approach: The AI-VascularAge Model.

BACKGROUND: Aortic stiffness, assessed as carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity, provides a measure of vascular age and risk for adverse cardiovascular disease outcomes, but it is difficult to measure. The shape of arterial pressure waveforms conveys information regarding aortic stiffness; however, the best methods to extract and interpret waveform features remain controversial. METHODS: We trained a convolutional neural network with fixed-scale (time and amplitude) brachial, radial, and carotid tonometry waveforms as input and negative inverse carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity as label. Models were trained with data from 2 community-based Icelandic samples (N=10 452 participants with 31 126 waveforms) and validated in the community-based Framingham Heart Study (N=7208 participants, 21 624 waveforms). Linear regression rescaled predicted negative inverse carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity to equivalent artificial intelligence vascular age (AI-VA). RESULTS: The AI-VascularAge model predicted negative inverse carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity with R2=0.64 in a randomly reserved Icelandic test group (n=5061, 16%) and R2=0.60 in the Framingham Heart Study. In the Framingham Heart Study (up to 18 years of follow-up; 479 cardiovascular disease, 200 coronary heart disease, and 213 heart failure events), brachial AI-VA was associated with incident cardiovascular disease adjusted for age and sex (model 1; hazard ratio, 1.79 [95% CI, 1.50-2.40] per SD; P<0.0001) or adjusted for age, sex, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, prevalent diabetes, hypertension treatment, and current smoking (model 2; hazard ratio, 1.50 [95% CI, 1.24-1.82] per SD; P<0.0001). Similar hazard ratios were demonstrated for incident coronary heart disease and heart failure events and for AI-VA values estimated from carotid or radial waveforms. CONCLUSIONS: Our results demonstrate that convolutional neural network-derived AI-VA is a powerful indicator of vascular health and cardiovascular disease risk in a broad community-based sample.

Proteomic prediction of incident heart failure and its main subtypes.

AIM: To examine the ability of serum proteins in predicting future heart failure (HF) events, including HF with reduced or preserved ejection fraction (HFrEF or HFpEF), in relation to event time, and with or without considering established HF-associated clinical variables. METHODS AND RESULTS: In the prospective population-based Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility Reykjavik Study (AGES-RS), 440 individuals developed HF after their first visit with a median follow-up of 5.45 years. Among them, 167 were diagnosed with HFrEF and 188 with HFpEF. A least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model with non-parametric bootstrap were used to select predictors from an analysis of 4782 serum proteins, and several pre-established clinical parameters linked to HF. A subset of 8-10 distinct or overlapping serum proteins predicted different future HF outcomes, and C-statistics were used to assess discrimination, revealing proteins combined with a C-index of 0.80 for all incident HF, 0.78 and 0.80 for incident HFpEF or HFrEF, respectively. In the AGES-RS, protein panels alone encompassed the risk contained in the clinical information and improved the performance characteristics of prediction models based on N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide and clinical risk factors. Finally, the protein predictors performed particularly well close to the time of an HF event, an outcome that was replicated in the Cardiovascular Health Study. CONCLUSION: A small number of circulating proteins accurately predicted future HF in the AGES-RS cohort of older adults, and they alone encompass the risk information found in a collection of clinical data. Incident HF events were predicted up to 8 years, with predictor performance significantly improving for events occurring less than 1 year ahead, a finding replicated in an external cohort study.

Trends of perceived disruption in healthcare services during the pandemic: findings from the COVID-19 National Resilience Cohort in Iceland.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused major disruptions in healthcare services worldwide. Yet, little is known about the association between perceived disruption in healthcare services and socio-demographic factors, pre-existing health conditions as well as concurrent physical and psychological symptoms. METHODS: Leveraging data from the Icelandic COVID-19 National Resilience Cohort, we performed a repeated measure analysis among 15 754 participants who responded to the question on perceived disruption in healthcare services from December 2020 to July 2021, to explore its association with socio-demographic factors, health indicators and conditions. Furthermore, we performed a longitudinal analysis among 7848 participants with two repeated measures to explore the association between timing and duration of perceived disruption in healthcare services and changes in depression, anxiety, sleep quality and somatic symptoms. RESULTS: The prevalence of perceived disruption in healthcare services slightly decreased over time (P < 0.01). Perceived disruption in healthcare services was more prevalent among individuals with pre-existing health conditions, i.e. history of psychiatric disorders (prevalence ratio = 1.59, 95% confidence interval 1.48-1.72) and chronic somatic conditions [1.40 (1.30-1.52)]. However, no increase in the prevalence of perceived disruption in healthcare services was observed among individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 [0.99 (0.84-1.18)]. Moreover, we found that emerging perceived disruption in healthcare services was associated with an increase in symptoms of mental illness during the pandemic (ßs 0.06-0.68). CONCLUSIONS: A disruption in healthcare services during the COVID-19 pandemic was reported by vulnerable groups, while the Icelandic healthcare system managed to maintain accessible services to individuals with COVID-19.

Determining hemodilution in diagnostic bone marrow aspirated samples in plasma cell disorders by next-generation flow cytometry: Proposal for a bone marrow quality index.

Hemodilution of bone marrow (BM) aspirates is a limitation of multiparameter flow cytometry (MFC) in plasma cell disorders. There is a need for a validated approach for assessing sample quality and the distribution of non-plasma cell BM populations by MFC could provide a solution. We evaluated BM-associated cell populations, assessed by next-generation flow cytometry (NGF) and white blood cell (WBC) count in 351 BM aspirated samples from 219 participants with plasma cell disorders in the Iceland Screens, Treats, or Prevents MM study (iStopMM), as markers of hemodilution by their discriminatory ability between first and (generally more hemodiluted) second pull BM aspirated samples. The most discriminating markers were used to derive a novel BM quality index (BMQI). Nucleated red blood cells and myeloid precursors provided the greatest discriminatory ability between first vs second pull samples (area under the curve (AUC): 0.87 and 0.85, respectively), significantly better than B cell precursors (AUC = 0.64; p < 0.001), mast cells (AUC = 0.65; p < 0.001), and the BM WBC count (AUC = 0.77; p < 0.05). We generated a novel BMQI that is intrinsic to current NGF protocols, for evaluating quality of diagnostic BM samples and suggest the use of a BMQI scoring system for interpreting results and guiding appropriate actions.

COVID-19 illness severity and 2-year prevalence of physical symptoms: an observational study in Iceland, Sweden, Norway and Denmark.

Background: Although the persistence of physical symptoms after SARS-CoV-2 infection is a major public health concern, evidence from large observational studies beyond one year post diagnosis remain scarce. We aimed to assess the prevalence of physical symptoms in relation to acute illness severity up to more than 2-years after diagnosis of COVID-19. Methods: This multinational study included 64,880 adult participants from Iceland, Sweden, Denmark, and Norway with self-reported data on COVID-19 and physical symptoms from April 2020 to August 2022. We compared the prevalence of 15 physical symptoms, measured by the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-15), among individuals with or without a confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis, by acute illness severity, and by time since diagnosis. We additionally assessed the change in symptoms in a subset of Swedish adults with repeated measures, before and after COVID-19 diagnosis. Findings: During up to 27 months of follow-up, 34.5% participants (22,382/64,880) were diagnosed with COVID-19. Individuals who were diagnosed with COVID-19, compared to those not diagnosed, had an overall 37% higher prevalence of severe physical symptom burden (PHQ-15 score ≥15, adjusted prevalence ratio [PR] 1.37 [95% confidence interval [CI] 1.23-1.52]). The prevalence was associated with acute COVID-19 severity: individuals bedridden for seven days or longer presented with the highest prevalence (PR 2.25 [1.85-2.74]), while individuals never bedridden presented with similar prevalence as individuals not diagnosed with COVID-19 (PR 0.92 [0.68-1.24]). The prevalence was statistically significantly elevated among individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 for eight of the fifteen measured symptoms: shortness of breath, chest pain, dizziness, heart racing, headaches, low energy/fatigue, trouble sleeping, and back pain. The analysis of repeated measurements rendered similar results as the main analysis. Interpretation: These data suggest an elevated prevalence of some, but not all, physical symptoms during up to more than 2 years after diagnosis of COVID-19, particularly among individuals suffering a severe acute illness, highlighting the importance of continued monitoring and alleviation of these targeted core symptoms. Funding: This work was mainly supported by grants from NordForsk (COVIDMENT, grant number 105668 and 138929) and Horizon 2020 (CoMorMent, 847776). See Acknowledgements for further details on funding.

A proteomic analysis of atrial fibrillation in a prospective longitudinal cohort (AGES-Reykjavik study).

AIMS: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with high risk of comorbidities and mortality. Our aim was to examine causal and predictive relationships between 4137 serum proteins and incident AF in the prospective population-based Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility-Reykjavik (AGES-Reykjavik) study. METHODS AND RESULTS: The study included 4765 participants, of whom 1172 developed AF. Cox proportional hazards regression models were fitted for 4137 baseline protein measurements adjusting for known risk factors. Protein associations were tested for replication in the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS). Causal relationships were examined in a bidirectional, two-sample Mendelian randomization analysis. The time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC)-statistic was examined as protein levels and an AF-polygenic risk score (PRS) were added to clinical risk models. The proteomic signature of incident AF consisted of 76 proteins, of which 63 (83%) were novel and 29 (38%) were replicated in CHS. The signature included both N-terminal prohormone of brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP)-dependent (e.g. CHST15, ATP1B1, and SVEP1) and independent components (e.g. ASPN, AKR1B, and LAMA1/LAMB1/LAMC1). Nine causal candidates were identified (TAGLN, WARS, CHST15, CHMP3, COL15A1, DUSP13, MANBA, QSOX2, and SRL). The reverse causal analysis suggested that most AF-associated proteins were affected by the genetic liability to AF. N-terminal prohormone of brain natriuretic peptide improved the prediction of incident AF events close to baseline with further improvements gained by the AF-PRS at all time points. CONCLUSION: The AF proteomic signature includes biologically relevant proteins, some of which may be causal. It mainly reflects an NT-proBNP-dependent consequence of the genetic liability to AF. N-terminal prohormone of brain natriuretic peptide is a promising marker for incident AF in the short term, but risk assessment incorporating a PRS may improve long-term risk assessment.

Elevated symptoms of depression and anxiety among family members and friends of critically ill COVID-19 patients - an observational study of five cohorts across four countries.

Background: Little is known regarding the mental health impact of having a significant person (family member and/or close friend) with COVID-19 of different severity. Methods: The study included five prospective cohorts from four countries (Iceland, Norway, Sweden, and the UK) with self-reported data on COVID-19 and symptoms of depression and anxiety during March 2020-March 2022. We calculated prevalence ratios (PR) of depression and anxiety in relation to having a significant person with COVID-19 and performed a longitudinal analysis in the Swedish cohort to describe temporal patterns. Findings: 162,237 and 168,783 individuals were included in the analysis of depression and anxiety, respectively, of whom 24,718 and 27,003 reported a significant person with COVID-19. Overall, the PR was 1.07 (95% CI: 1.05-1.10) for depression and 1.08 (95% CI: 1.03-1.13) for anxiety in relation to having a significant person with COVID-19. The respective PRs for depression and anxiety were 1.15 (95% CI: 1.08-1.23) and 1.24 (95% CI: 1.14-1.34) if the patient was hospitalized, 1.42 (95% CI: 1.27-1.57) and 1.45 (95% CI: 1.31-1.60) if the patient was ICU-admitted, and 1.34 (95% CI: 1.22-1.46) and 1.36 (95% CI: 1.22-1.51) if the patient died. Individuals with a significant person with hospitalized, ICU-admitted, or fatal COVID-19 showed elevated prevalence of depression and anxiety during the entire year after the COVID-19 diagnosis. Interpretation: Family members and close friends of critically ill COVID-19 patients show persistently elevated prevalence of depressive and anxiety symptoms. Funding: This study was primarily supported by NordForsk (COVIDMENT, 105668) and Horizon 2020 (CoMorMent, 847776).

Serum proteomics reveals APOE dependent and independent protein signatures in Alzheimer's disease.

The current demand for early intervention, prevention, and treatment of late onset Alzheimer's disease (LOAD) warrants deeper understanding of the underlying molecular processes which could contribute to biomarker and drug target discovery. Utilizing high-throughput proteomic measurements in serum from a prospective population-based cohort of older adults (n=5,294), we identified 303 unique proteins associated with incident LOAD (median follow-up 12.8 years). Over 40% of these proteins were associated with LOAD independently of APOE-ε4 carrier status. These proteins were implicated in neuronal processes and overlapped with protein signatures of LOAD in brain and cerebrospinal fluid. We found 17 proteins which LOAD-association was strongly dependent on APOE-ε4 carrier status. Most of them showed consistent associations with LOAD in cerebrospinal fluid and a third had brain-specific gene expression. Remarkably, four proteins in this group (TBCA, ARL2, S100A13 and IRF6) were downregulated by APOE-ε4 yet upregulated as a consequence of LOAD as determined in a bi-directional Mendelian randomization analysis, reflecting a potential response to the disease onset. Accordingly, the direct association of these proteins to LOAD was reversed upon APOE-ε4 genotype adjustment, a finding which we replicate in an external cohort (n=719). Our findings provide an insight into the dysregulated pathways that may lead to the development and early detection of LOAD, including those both independent and dependent on APOE-ε4. Importantly, many of the LOAD-associated proteins we find in the circulation have been found to be expressed - and have a direct link with AD - in brain tissue. Thus, the proteins identified here, and their upstream modulating pathways, provide a new source of circulating biomarker and therapeutic target candidates for LOAD.

Psychiatric comorbidities in women with cardiometabolic conditions with and without ADHD: a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Leveraging a large nationwide study of Icelandic women, we aimed to narrow the evidence gap around female attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and cardiometabolic comorbidities by determining the prevalence of obesity, hypertension, type 2 diabetes, and cardiovascular diseases among women with ADHD and examine the association between cardiometabolic conditions and co-occurring ADHD with anxiety and mood disorders, alcoholism/substance use disorder (SUD), self-harm, and suicide attempts. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of the nationwide, all-female, population-based SAGA Cohort Study (n = 26,668). To ascertain diagnoses and symptoms, we used self-reported history of ADHD diagnoses, selected cardiometabolic conditions and psychiatric disorders, and measured current depressive, anxiety, and PTSD symptoms through appropriate questionnaires (PHQ-9, GAD-7, and PCL-5). We calculated age-adjusted prevalences of cardiometabolic conditions by women's ADHD status and estimated adjusted prevalence ratios (PR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI), using modified Poisson regression models. Similarly, we assessed the association of cardiometabolic conditions and co-occurring ADHD with current psychiatric symptoms and psychiatric disorders, using adjusted PRs and 95% CIs. RESULTS: We identified 2299 (8.6%) women with a history of ADHD diagnosis. The age-adjusted prevalence of having at least one cardiometabolic condition was higher among women with ADHD (49.5%) than those without (41.7%), (PR = 1.19, 95% CI 1.14-1.25), with higher prevalence of all measured cardiometabolic conditions (myocardial infarctions (PR = 2.53, 95% CI 1.83--3.49), type 2 diabetes (PR = 2.08, 95% CI 1.66-2.61), hypertension (PR = 1.23, 95% CI 1.12-1.34), and obesity (PR = 1.18, 95% CI 1.11-1.25)). Women with cardiometabolic conditions and co-occurring ADHD had, compared with those without ADHD, substantially increased prevalence of (a) all measured mood and anxiety disorders, e.g., depression (PR = 2.38, 95% CI 2.19-2.58), bipolar disorder (PR = 4.81, 95% CI 3.65-6.35), posttraumatic stress disorder (PR = 2.78, 95% CI 2.52-3.07), social phobia (PR = 2.96, 95% CI 2.64-3.32); (b) moderate/severe depressive, anxiety, and PTSD symptoms with PR = 1.76 (95% CI 1.67-1.85), PR = 1.97 (95% CI 1.82-2.12), and PR = 2.01 (95% CI 1.88-2.15), respectively; (c) alcoholism/SUD, PR = 4.79 (95% CI 3.90-5.89); and (d) self-harm, PR = 1.47 (95% CI 1.29-1.67) and suicide attempts, PR = 2.37 (95% CI 2.05-2.73). CONCLUSIONS: ADHD is overrepresented among women with cardiometabolic conditions and contributes substantially to other psychiatric comorbidities among women with cardiometabolic conditions.