Sex-specific effects of birth weight on longitudinal behavioural outcomes in children and adolescents: findings from the raine study.

Previous cross-sectional studies suggest that birth weight (BW) is associated with aggression-, social- and attention problems differently in boys and girls. We sought to test if these differences could be confirmed in a longitudinal study. The 1989 Raine Study provided prospectively collected data on perinatal variables and repeated child behaviour checklist assessments from ages 5 to 17. Linear mixed effects models provided crude and adjusted relationships between BW and childhood behaviour at a conservative significance threshold using prenatal maternal covariables in adjusted models. Sensitivity analyses included an age10 teacher assessment. Data on behaviour, BW and sex, was available in 2269 participants. Male sex was associated with increased aggression problems at lower BW compared to females in the crude model (Interaction B: -0.436, 98.3%CI: [-0.844, -0.0253]), but not the adjusted model (Interaction B: -0.310, 98.3%CI: [-0.742, 0.140]). Male sex was associated with increased attention problems at lower BW compared to females in both the crude model (Interaction B: -0.334, 98.3%CI: [-0.530, -0.137]) and the adjusted model (Interaction B: -0.274, 98.3%CI: [-0.507, -0.0432]). Male sex was associated with increased social problems at lower BW compared to females in both the crude model (Interaction B: -0.164, 98.3%CI: [-0.283, -0.0441]) and the adjusted model (Interaction B: -0.148, 98.3%CI: [-0.285, -0.00734]). Using repeated measures from ages 5-17 we were able to show a crude and adjusted male vulnerability to lower BW in the development of attention problems and social problems. We did not find a BW x sex interaction for the development of aggressive behaviour.

Metabolic Health, Overweight or Obesity, and Depressive Symptoms among Older Australian Adults.

BACKGROUND: The relationship between overweight or obesity and depressive symptoms in individuals with or without cardio-metabolic abnormalities is unclear. In a cross-sectional study we examined the odds of experiencing depressive symptoms in overweight or obese older adults with or without metabolic abnormalities. METHODS: The participants included 3318 older adults from the Hunter Community Study Cohort with a Body Mass Index (BMI) ≥ 18.5 kgm2, stratified by BMI and metabolic health risk. Obesity was defined as BMI ≥ 30 kgm2 and metabolically healthy as the absence of metabolic risk factors, according to International Diabetic Federation criteria for metabolic syndromes. Moderate to severe depressive symptoms were defined as a Centre for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale (CES-D) score ≥ 16. RESULTS: Compared to the metabolically healthy normal weight (MHNW) group, the odds of experiencing moderate/severe depressive symptoms were higher in those classified as a metabolically unhealthy normal weight (MUNW) (odds ratio (OR) = 1.25, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.76-2.06) or metabolically unhealthy obesity (MUO) (OR = 1.48, 95% CI: 1.00-2.19), but not in those classified as metabolically unhealthy overweight (MUOW) (OR = 0.96, 95% CI: 0.63-1.45), metabolically healthy overweight (MHOW) (OR = 0.80, 95% CI: 0.51-1.26), and metabolically healthy obesity (MHO) (OR = 1.03, 95% CI: 0.65-1.64). Compared with MHNW males, the odds of moderate/severe depressive symptoms were increased in all other BMI category-metabolic health groups for males and females. LIMITATIONS: Our relatively small sample size and cross-sectional design did not allow us to robustly establish causality. CONCLUSION: The odds of experiencing moderate/severe depressive symptoms were increased in metabolically unhealthy older adults regardless of normal weight or obesity, with the odds of having moderate/severe depressive symptoms being higher in females than in males.

Prognostic models and factors identifying end-of-life in non-cancer chronic diseases: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Precise prognostic information, if available, is very helpful for guiding treatment decisions and resource allocation in patients with non-cancer non-communicable chronic diseases (NCDs). This study aimed to systematically review the existing evidence, examining prognostic models and factors for identifying end-of-life non-cancer NCD patients. METHODS: Electronic databases, including Medline, Embase, CINAHL, Cochrane Library, PsychINFO and other sources, were searched from the inception of these databases up until June 2023. Studies published in English with findings mentioning prognostic models or factors related to identifying end-of-life in non-cancer NCD patients were included. The quality of studies was assessed using the Quality in Prognosis Studies tool. RESULTS: The analysis included data from 41 studies, with 16 focusing on chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (COPD), 10 on dementia, 6 on heart failure and 9 on mixed NCDs. Traditional statistical modelling was predominantly used for the identified prognostic models. Common predictors in COPD models included dyspnoea, forced expiratory volume in 1 s, functional status, exacerbation history and body mass index. Models for dementia and heart failure frequently included comorbidity, age, gender, blood tests and nutritional status. Similarly, mixed NCD models commonly included functional status, age, dyspnoea, the presence of skin pressure ulcers, oral intake and level of consciousness. The identified prognostic models exhibited varying predictive accuracy, with the majority demonstrating weak to moderate discriminatory performance (area under the curve: 0.5-0.8). Additionally, most of these models lacked independent external validation, and only a few underwent internal validation. CONCLUSION: Our review summarised the most relevant predictors for identifying end-of-life in non-cancer NCDs. However, the predictive accuracy of identified models was generally inconsistent and low, and lacked external validation. Although efforts to improve these prognostic models should continue, clinicians should recognise the possibility that disease heterogeneity may limit the utility of these models for individual prognostication; they may be more useful for population level health planning.

Exploring a Potential Interaction Between the Effect of Specific Maternal Smoking Patterns and Comorbid Antenatal Depression in Causing Postpartum Depression.

Purpose: To explore a potential interaction between the effect of specific maternal smoking patterns and the presence of antenatal depression, as independent exposures, in causing postpartum depression (PPD). Methods: This case-control study of participants with singleton term births (N = 51220) was based on data from the 2017-2018 Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System. Multivariable log-binomial regression models examined the main effects of smoking patterns and self-reported symptoms of antenatal depression on the risk of PPD on the adjusted risk ratio (aRR) scale and tested a two-way interaction adjusting for covariates selected in a directed acyclic graph (DAG). The interaction effects were measured on the additive scale using relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI), the attributable proportion of interaction (AP), and the synergy index (SI). Causal effects were defined in a counterfactual framework. The E-value quantified the potential impact of unobserved/unknown covariates, conditional on observed covariates. Results: Among 6841 women in the sample who self-reported PPD, 35.7% also reported symptoms of antenatal depression. Out of 3921 (7.7%) women who reported smoking during pregnancy, 32.6% smoked at high intensity (≥10 cigarettes/day) in all three trimesters and 36.6% had symptoms of antenatal depression. The main effect of PPD was the strongest for women who smoked at high intensity throughout pregnancy (aRR 1.65; 95% CI: 1.63, 1.68). A synergistic interaction was detected, and the effect of all maternal smoking patterns was augmented, particularly in late pregnancy for Increasers and Reducers. Conclusion: Strong associations and interaction effects between maternal smoking patterns and co-occurring antenatal depression support smoking prevention and cessation interventions during pregnancy to lower the likelihood of PPD.

Genome-wide analysis in over 1 million individuals of European ancestry yields improved polygenic risk scores for blood pressure traits.

Hypertension affects more than one billion people worldwide. Here we identify 113 novel loci, reporting a total of 2,103 independent genetic signals (P < 5 × 10-8) from the largest single-stage blood pressure (BP) genome-wide association study to date (n = 1,028,980 European individuals). These associations explain more than 60% of single nucleotide polymorphism-based BP heritability. Comparing top versus bottom deciles of polygenic risk scores (PRSs) reveals clinically meaningful differences in BP (16.9 mmHg systolic BP, 95% CI, 15.5-18.2 mmHg, P = 2.22 × 10-126) and more than a sevenfold higher odds of hypertension risk (odds ratio, 7.33; 95% CI, 5.54-9.70; P = 4.13 × 10-44) in an independent dataset. Adding PRS into hypertension-prediction models increased the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) from 0.791 (95% CI, 0.781-0.801) to 0.826 (95% CI, 0.817-0.836, ∆AUROC, 0.035, P = 1.98 × 10-34). We compare the 2,103 loci results in non-European ancestries and show significant PRS associations in a large African-American sample. Secondary analyses implicate 500 genes previously unreported for BP. Our study highlights the role of increasingly large genomic studies for precision health research.

Efficacy of migraine prophylaxis treatments for treatment-naïve patients and those with prior treatment failure: a protocol for systematic review and network meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials.

INTRODUCTION: Migraine headache is a significant health problem affecting patients' psychological well-being and quality of life. Several network meta-analyses (NMAs) have compared the efficacy of migraine prophylaxis medications. However, some have focused exclusively on oral medications, while others were limited to injectable medications. Moreover, none of these NMAs conducted a stratified analysis between treatment-naïve patients and those with prior treatment failure. Therefore, this systematic review and NMA will compare the efficacy among all treatments for migraine prophylaxis, stratified by the treatment status of patients (ie, treatment-naïve and previous treatment failure). METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Randomised-controlled trials that included patients with chronic or episodic migraine, assessed the efficacy of oral or injectable treatments for migraine prophylaxis and measured the outcomes as monthly migraine day, monthly headache day, migraine-related disability, health-related quality of life or adverse drug events will be eligible for inclusion in this review. Relevant studies will be searched from Medline, Scopus, the US National Institutes of Health Register, and the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (WHO-ICTRP) databases since inception through 15 August 2023. Risk of bias assessment will be performed using a revised tool for assessing the risk of bias in randomised trials. Two-stage NMA will be applied to compare relative treatment effects among all treatments of migraine prophylaxis. Surface under the cumulative ranking curve will be applied to estimate and rank the probability to be the best treatment. Consistency assumption will be assessed using a design-by-treatment interaction model. Publication bias will be assessed by comparison-adjusted funnel plot. All analyses will be stratified according to patients' status (ie, treatment-naïve and prior treatment failure). ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study is a systematic review protocol collecting data from published literature and does not require approval from an institutional review board. Results from this systematic review will be published in a peer-reviewed journal. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42020171843.

A Large-Scale Genome-Wide Study of Gene-Sleep Duration Interactions for Blood Pressure in 811,405 Individuals from Diverse Populations.

Although both short and long sleep duration are associated with elevated hypertension risk, our understanding of their interplay with biological pathways governing blood pressure remains limited. To address this, we carried out genome-wide cross-population gene-by-short-sleep and long-sleep duration interaction analyses for three blood pressure traits (systolic, diastolic, and pulse pressure) in 811,405 individuals from diverse population groups. We discover 22 novel gene-sleep duration interaction loci for blood pressure, mapped to genes involved in neurological, thyroidal, bone metabolism, and hematopoietic pathways. Non-overlap between short sleep (12) and long sleep (10) interactions underscores the plausibility of distinct influences of both sleep duration extremes in cardiovascular health. With several of our loci reflecting specificity towards population background or sex, our discovery sheds light on the importance of embracing granularity when addressing heterogeneity entangled in gene-environment interactions, and in therapeutic design approaches for blood pressure management.

A Mobile Health Resistance Training Intervention Using Outdoor Gym Equipment: Process Evaluation of the Ecofit Effectiveness Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: Few mobile health resistance-based physical activity interventions have targeted community-dwelling adults. "Ecofit" is a multicomponent intervention that promotes resistance and aerobic activities using smartphone technology, outdoor gyms, and social support. This study evaluated process evaluation outcomes of the ecofit randomized controlled trial: (1) the acceptability and usability of the ecofit smartphone app and app user workouts; (2) perceptions of factors influencing outdoor gym use; and (3) the fidelity, reach, recruitment, and dose received of the ecofit program. METHODS: Process data were collected through program evaluation surveys at 3 months, and app usage data were collected via the intervention platform for up to 3 months. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics. RESULTS: The survey was completed by 57% (n = 69) of eligible participants. The majority (93%) believed the app provided them with sufficient information to perform muscle-strengthening activities. Approximately half (51%) agreed that the goal-setting function encouraged them to complete their workouts, and 42% agreed that the self-assessment helped them monitor progress. "Proximity" to outdoor gyms emerged as the most important factor for choosing locations to workout (mean = 5.5, SD = 1.1). Participants logged a median of 5.5 (interquartile range = 19) workouts and 1 (interquartile range = 1) upper- and lower-body muscular fitness self-assessment. CONCLUSIONS: The ecofit app provided participants with sufficient skills to perform unsupervised resistance training exercises using mobile health. Only half of the participants regarded self-assessments and goal setting as useful, suggesting a need for modifications to how these are implemented. Mobile health remains a promising delivery platform to promote unsupervised resistance training, although more research is needed to improve uptake.

Should intermittent pneumatic compression devices be standard therapy for the prevention of venous thromboembolic events in major surgery? Protocol for a randomised clinical trial (IMPOSTERS).

INTRODUCTION: Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a recognised postsurgical risk. Current prevention methods involve low molecular weight heparin (LMWH), graduated compression stockings (GCS), and intermittent pneumatic compression devices (IPCDs). Australian guidelines, commonly adopted by surgeons, recommend LMWH with GCS and/or IPCDs. IPCDs pose clinical risks, increase care burden, are poorly tolerated, and are costly single-use plastic items. Utilising only LMWH and GCS, without IPCDs, could be more practical, patient-friendly, and cost-effective, with added environmental benefits. METHODS: This is a multicentre, prospective, two-arm randomised controlled non-inferiority trial at five New South Wales (NSW) hospitals, in Australia. We propose to randomise 4130 participants in a 1:1 ratio between arm A: LMWH+GCS+IPCDs (n=2065) or arm B: LMWH+GCS (n=2065). The primary outcome of interest is symptomatic VTE (deep vein thrombosis/pulmonary embolism) identified at the day 30 phone follow-up (FU), confirmed by ultrasound or imaging. Radiologists interpreting the lower-extremity ultrasonography will be blinded to intervention allocation. Secondary outcomes are quality of life at baseline, days 30 and 90 FU using the 5-level European Quality of Life Score, compliance and adverse events with IPCDs, GCS, and LMWH, as well as healthcare costs (from the perspective of the patient and the hospital), and all-cause mortality. The trial has 90% power to detect a 2% non-inferiority margin to detect a reduction rate of VTE from 4% to 2%. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study has been approved by the Hunter New England Human Research Ethics Committee (2022/ETH02276) protocol V.10, 13 July 2023. Study findings will be presented at local and national conferences and in scientific research journals. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ANZCTR12622001527752.

Optimal antiseptic skin preparation agents for minimizing surgical site infection following surgery: cost and cost-effectiveness analysis.

BACKGROUND: The application of antiseptic skin agents prior to incision minimizes the rate of surgical site infection. Despite their ubiquity, the optimal skin preparation agent remains uncertain. A retrospective economic analysis was conducted to complement the results from the NEWSkin Prep trial which prospectively compared three preparation agents. METHODS: A cost and cost-effectiveness analysis was performed from a healthcare service perspective to compare chlorhexidine with 70% ethanol, and aqueous povidone-iodine, against povidone-iodine with 70% ethanol. Resource use estimates accounted for hospital admissions, readmissions associated with surgical site infection, outpatient and general practitioner attendances, visits from community nurses and therapeutic consumables. The measure of effectiveness comprised the net difference in number of patients with surgical site infections per 1000 patients. Costs were compared using a two-sample Welch's t-test. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. RESULTS: The null hypothesis that the mean costs for the trial arms were significantly different was not rejected (Welch's t-test P value: 0.771 for chlorhexidine with 70% ethanol against povidone-iodine with 70% ethanol; and 0.955 for aqueous povidone-iodine against povidone-iodine with 70% ethanol). Based on bootstrap averages, the chlorhexidine with 70% ethanol intervention generated 8.0 fewer surgical site infections per 1000 patients and net cost savings of €151,698 (Euros) per 1000 patients compared with povidone-iodine with 70% ethanol, and aqueous povidone-iodine produced a net cost saving of €37,494 per 1000 patients but generated an additional 11.6 surgical site infections per 1000 patients compared with povidone-iodine with 70% ethanol. The comparison of chlorhexidine with 70% ethanol to povidone-iodine with 70% ethanol was sensitive to the inclusion of cost outliers, while the comparison of aqueous povidone-iodine to povidone-iodine with 70% ethanol was sensitive to the estimated cost per surgical site infection. CONCLUSION: Based on the outcomes from the NEWSkin Prep study, this economic analysis found no definitive evidence in favour of any one of the study comparators. Future model-based economic analyses of alternative skin preparations should critically address the quality of evidence and integrate the results from the NEWSkin Prep study.

What care do people with dementia receive at the end of life? Lessons from a retrospective clinical audit of deaths in hospital and other settings.

BACKGROUND: The need for better end-of-life care for people with dementia has been acknowledged. Existing literature suggests that people dying with dementia have less access to palliative care, yet little is known about the care provided to people with dementia at the end of life. This study aimed to establish evidence related to end-of-life care for people dying with dementia in hospital compared to other settings. METHODS: A retrospective clinical audit of people who had a diagnosis of dementia and had accessed services within a local health district, who died between 2015 and 2019, was conducted. A total of 705 people were identified, and a subset of 299 people randomly selected for manual audit. Chi-square p-values were used to compare the place of death, and a t-test or non-parametric test was used to assess the significance of the difference, as appropriate. Measures of functional decline within one month of death were assessed using mixed effects logistic regression models. RESULTS: The characteristics of people differed by place of death, with people who died in hospital more likely to be living at home and to not have a spouse. Less than 1 in 5 people had advance care directives or plans. Many were still being actively treated at the time of death: almost half of people who died in hospital had an investigation in their final 72 hours, less than half of people were coded as receiving palliative care at death, and more than 2 in 3 people did not get access to specialist palliative care. Declining function was associated with the terminal phase. CONCLUSION: This study provides novel insights for those providing end-of-life care for people with dementia. Healthcare professionals and policy makers should consider how demographic characteristics relate to the places people with dementia receive end-of-life care. The care provided to people with dementia in the last year of their life highlights the need for more support to prepare advance care documentation and timely consideration for palliative care. Changes in markers of nutritional status and function in people with advanced dementia may help with identification of terminal phases.

Improving end-of-life care for people with dementia: a mixed-methods study.

BACKGROUND: Improving palliative and end-of-life care for people with dementia is a growing priority globally. This study aimed to integrate multiple perspectives on end-of-life care for people with dementia and carers, to identify clinically relevant areas for improvement. METHODS: The mixed-methods study involved surveys, interviews, and workshops with two participant groups: healthcare professionals and carers (individuals who provided care and support to a family member or friend). Healthcare professionals were invited to complete an online adapted version of the Australian Commission on Safety and Quality in Health Care, End-of-Life Care Toolkit: Clinician Survey Questions. Carers completed a hard copy or online adapted version of the Views of Informal Carers-Evaluation of Services (Short form) (VOICES-SF) questionnaire. Interview schedules were semi-structured, and workshops followed a co-design format. Findings were integrated narratively using a weaving approach. RESULTS: Five areas in which we can improve care for people with dementia at the end of life, were identified: 1) Timely recognition of end of life; 2) Conversations about palliative care and end of life; 3) Information and support for people with dementia and carers; 4) Person-and-carer-centred care; 5) Accessing quality, coordinated care. CONCLUSIONS: There are multiple areas where we can improve the quality of end-of-life care people with dementia receive. The findings demonstrate that the heterogeneous and challenging experiences of living with and caring for people with dementia necessitate a multidisciplinary, multifaceted approach to end-of-life care. The identified solutions, including care coordination, can guide local development of co-designed models of end-of-life care for people with dementia.

'Quitlink': Outcomes of a randomised controlled trial of peer researcher facilitated referral to a tailored quitline tobacco treatment for people receiving mental health services.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to test the effectiveness of a tailored quitline tobacco treatment ('Quitlink') among people receiving support for mental health conditions. METHODS: We employed a prospective, cluster-randomised, open, blinded endpoint design to compare a control condition to our 'Quitlink' intervention. Both conditions received a brief intervention delivered by a peer researcher. Control participants received no further intervention. Quitlink participants were referred to a tailored 8-week quitline intervention delivered by dedicated Quitline counsellors plus combination nicotine replacement therapy. The primary outcome was self-reported 6 months continuous abstinence from end of treatment (8 months from baseline). Secondary outcomes included additional smoking outcomes, mental health symptoms, substance use and quality of life. A within-trial economic evaluation was conducted. RESULTS: In total, 110 participants were recruited over 26 months and 91 had confirmed outcomes at 8 months post baseline. There was a difference in self-reported prolonged abstinence at 8-month follow-up between Quitlink (16%, n = 6) and control (2%, n = 1) conditions, which was not statistically significant (OR = 8.33 [0.52, 132.09] p = 0.131 available case). There was a significant difference in favour of the Quitlink condition on 7-day point prevalence at 2 months (OR = 8.06 [1.27, 51.00] p = 0.027 available case). Quitlink costs AU$9231 per additional quit achieved. CONCLUSION: The Quitlink intervention did not result in significantly higher rates of prolonged abstinence at 8 months post baseline. However, engagement rates and satisfaction with the 'Quitlink' intervention were high. While underpowered, the Quitlink intervention shows promise. A powered trial to determine its effectiveness for improving long-term cessation is warranted.

Secondary prevention of stroke. A telehealth-delivered physical activity and diet pilot randomized trial (ENAbLE-pilot).

BACKGROUND: Improving physical activity levels and diet quality are important for secondary stroke prevention. AIM: To test the feasibility and safety of 6-month, co-designed telehealth-delivered interventions to increase physical activity and improve diet quality. METHODS: A 2 × 2 factorial trial (physical activity (PA); diet (DIET); PA + DIET; control) randomized, open-label, blinded endpoint trial. Primary outcomes were feasibility and safety. Secondary outcomes included stroke risk factors (blood pressure, self-report PA (International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ)) and diet quality (Australian Recommended Food Score (ARFS)), and quality of life. Between-group differences were analyzed using linear-mixed models. RESULTS: Over 23 months, 99 people were screened for participation and 40 (40%) randomized (3 months to 10 years post-stroke, mean age 59 (16) years). Six participants withdrew, and an additional five were lost to follow-up. Fifteen serious adverse events were reported, but none were deemed definitely or probably related to the intervention. Median attendance was 32 (of 36) PA sessions and 9 (of 10) DIET sessions. The proportion of missing primary outcome data (blood pressure) was 3% at 3 months, 11% at 6 months, and 14% at 12 months. Between-group 95% confidence intervals showed promising, clinically relevant differences in support of the interventions across the range of PA, diet quality, and blood pressure outcomes. CONCLUSION: Our telehealth PA and diet interventions were safe and feasible and may have led to significant behavior change. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ACTRN12620000189921.

External validation and revision of Penn incisional hernia prediction model: A large-scale retrospective cohort of abdominal operations.

BACKGROUND: Incisional hernia (IH) manifests in 10%-15% of abdominal surgeries and patients at elevated risk of this complication should be identified for prophylactic intervention. This study aimed to externally validate the Penn hernia risk calculator. METHODS: The Ramathibodi abdominal surgery cohort was constructed by linking relevant hospital databases from 2010 to 2021. Penn hernia risk scores were calculated according to the original model which was externally validated using a seven-step approach. An updated model which included four additional predictor variables (i.e., age, immunosuppressive medication, ostomy reversal, and transfusion) added to those of the three original predictors (i.e., body mass index, chronic liver disease, and open surgery) was also evaluated. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was estimated, and calibration performance was compared using the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit method for the observed/expected (O/E) ratio. RESULTS: A total of 12,155 abdominal operations were assessed. The original Penn model yielded fair discrimination with an AUC (95% confidence interval (CI)) of 0.645 (0.607, 0.683). The updated model that included the additional predictor variables achieved an acceptable AUC (95% CI) of 0.733 (0.698, 0.768) with the O/E ratio of 0.968 (0.848, 1.088). CONCLUSION: The updated model achieved improved discrimination and calibration performance, and should be considered for the identification of high-risk patients for further hernia prevention strategy.

Development of a diagnostic support tool for predicting cervical arterial dissection in primary care.

OBJECTIVES: Cervical arterial dissection (CAD) is an important cause of stroke in young people which may be missed because early features may mimic migraine or a musculoskeletal presentation. The study aimed to develop a diagnostic support tool for early identification of CAD. DESIGN: Retrospective observational study. SETTING: Tertiary hospital. PARTICIPANTS: Radiologically confirmed CAD cases (n = 37), non-CAD stroke cases (n = 20), and healthy controls (n = 100). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The presence of CAD is confirmed with imaging. Predictive variables included risk factors and clinical characteristics of CAD. Variables with a p-value <0.2 included in a multivariable model. Predictive utility of the model is assessed by calculating area underthe ROC curve (AUC). RESULTS: The model including four variables: age 40-55 years (vs < 40), trauma, recent onset headache, and > 2 neurological features, demonstrated excellent discrimination: AUC of 0.953 (95% CI: 0.916, 0.987). A predictive scoring system (total score/7) identified an optimal threshold of ≥ 3 points, with a sensitivity of 87% and specificity of 79%. CONCLUSIONS: The study identified a diagnostic support tool with four variables to predict increased risk of CAD. Validation in a clinical sample is needed to confirm variables and refine descriptors to enable clinicians to efficiently apply the tool.Optimum cutoff scores of ≥ 3/7 points will help identify those in whom CAD should be considered and further investigation instigated. The potential impact of the tool is to improve early recognition of CAD in those with acute headache or neck pain, thereby facilitating more timely medical intervention, preventing inappropriate treatment, and improving patient outcomes.Wordcount: 3195.

Delayed versus primary closure to minimize risk of surgical-site infection for complicated appendicitis: A secondary analysis of a randomized trial using counterfactual prediction modeling.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the risk of surgical site infection (SSI) following complicated appendectomy in individual patients receiving delayed primary closure (DPC) versus primary closure (PC) after adjustment for individual risk factors. DESIGN: Secondary analysis of randomized controlled trial (RCT) with prediction model. SETTING: Referral centers across Thailand. PARTICIPANTS: Adult patients who underwent appendectomy via a lower-right-quadrant abdominal incision due to complicated appendicitis. METHODS: A secondary analysis of a published RCT was performed applying a counterfactual prediction model considering interventions (PC vs DPC) and other significant predictors. A multivariable logistic regression was applied, and a likelihood-ratio test was used to select significant predictors to retain in a final model. Factual versus counterfactual SSI risks for individual patients along with individual treatment effect (iTE) were estimated. RESULTS: In total, 546 patients (271 PC vs 275 DPC) were included in the analysis. The individualized prediction model consisted of allocated intervention, diabetes, type of complicated appendicitis, fecal contamination, and incision length. The iTE varied between 0.4% and 7% for PC compared to DPC; ∼38.1% of patients would have ≥2.1% lower SSI risk following PC compared to DPC. The greatest risk reduction was identified in diabetes with ruptured appendicitis, fecal contamination, and incision length of 10 cm, where SSI risks were 47.1% and 54.1% for PC and DPC, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In this secondary analysis, we found that most patients benefited from early PC versus DPC. Findings may be used to inform SSI prevention strategies for patients with complicated appendicitis.

Using Genetics to Inform Interventions Related to Sodium and Potassium in Hypertension.

BACKGROUND: Hypertension is a key risk factor for major adverse cardiovascular events but remains difficult to treat in many individuals. Dietary interventions are an effective approach to lower blood pressure (BP) but are not equally effective across all individuals. BP is heritable, and genetics may be a useful tool to overcome treatment response heterogeneity. We investigated whether the genetics of BP could be used to identify individuals with hypertension who may receive a particular benefit from lowering sodium intake and boosting potassium levels. METHODS: In this observational genetic study, we leveraged cross-sectional data from up to 296 475 genotyped individuals drawn from the UK Biobank cohort for whom BP and urinary electrolytes (sodium and potassium), biomarkers of sodium and potassium intake, were measured. Biologically directed genetic scores for BP were constructed specifically among pathways related to sodium and potassium biology (pharmagenic enrichment scores), as well as unannotated genome-wide scores (conventional polygenic scores). We then tested whether there was a gene-by-environment interaction between urinary electrolytes and these genetic scores on BP. RESULTS: Genetic risk and urinary electrolytes both independently correlated with BP. However, urinary sodium was associated with a larger BP increase among individuals with higher genetic risk in sodium- and potassium-related pathways than in those with comparatively lower genetic risk. For example, each SD in urinary sodium was associated with a 1.47-mm Hg increase in systolic BP for those in the top 10% of the distribution of genetic risk in sodium and potassium transport pathways versus a 0.97-mm Hg systolic BP increase in the lowest 10% (P=1.95×10-3). This interaction with urinary sodium remained when considering estimated glomerular filtration rate and indexing sodium to urinary creatinine. There was no strong evidence of an interaction between urinary sodium and a standard genome-wide polygenic score of BP. CONCLUSIONS: The data suggest that genetic risk in sodium and potassium pathways could be used in a precision medicine model to direct interventions more specifically in the management of hypertension. Intervention studies are warranted.

Omega-3 Blood Levels and Stroke Risk: A Pooled and Harmonized Analysis of 183 291 Participants From 29 Prospective Studies.

BACKGROUND: The effect of marine omega-3 PUFAs on risk of stroke remains unclear. METHODS: We investigated the associations between circulating and tissue omega-3 PUFA levels and incident stroke (total, ischemic, and hemorrhagic) in 29 international prospective cohorts. Each site conducted a de novo individual-level analysis using a prespecified analytical protocol with defined exposures, covariates, analytical methods, and outcomes; the harmonized data from the studies were then centrally pooled. Multivariable-adjusted HRs and 95% CIs across omega-3 PUFA quintiles were computed for each stroke outcome. RESULTS: Among 183 291 study participants, there were 10 561 total strokes, 8220 ischemic strokes, and 1142 hemorrhagic strokes recorded over a median of 14.3 years follow-up. For eicosapentaenoic acid, comparing quintile 5 (Q5, highest) with quintile 1 (Q1, lowest), total stroke incidence was 17% lower (HR, 0.83 [CI, 0.76-0.91]; P<0.0001), and ischemic stroke was 18% lower (HR, 0.82 [CI, 0.74-0.91]; P<0.0001). For docosahexaenoic acid, comparing Q5 with Q1, there was a 12% lower incidence of total stroke (HR, 0.88 [CI, 0.81-0.96]; P=0.0001) and a 14% lower incidence of ischemic stroke (HR, 0.86 [CI, 0.78-0.95]; P=0.0001). Neither eicosapentaenoic acid nor docosahexaenoic acid was associated with a risk for hemorrhagic stroke. These associations were not modified by either baseline history of AF or prevalent CVD. CONCLUSIONS: Higher omega-3 PUFA levels are associated with lower risks of total and ischemic stroke but have no association with hemorrhagic stroke.

Development of Risk Prediction Models for Severe Periodontitis in a Thai Population: Statistical and Machine Learning Approaches.

BACKGROUND: Severe periodontitis affects 26% of Thai adults and 11.2% of adults globally and is characterized by the loss of alveolar bone height. Full-mouth examination by periodontal probing is the gold standard for diagnosis but is time- and resource-intensive. A screening model to identify those at high risk of severe periodontitis would offer a targeted approach and aid in reducing the workload for dentists. While statistical modelling by a logistic regression is commonly applied, optimal performance depends on feature selections and engineering. Machine learning has been recently gaining favor given its potential discriminatory power and ability to deal with multiway interactions without the requirements of linear assumptions. OBJECTIVE: We aim to compare the performance of screening models developed using statistical and machine learning approaches for the risk prediction of severe periodontitis. METHODS: This study used data from the prospective Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand cohort. Dental examinations were performed for the 2008 and 2013 surveys. Oral examinations (ie, number of teeth and oral hygiene index and plaque scores), periodontal pocket depth, and gingival recession were performed by dentists. The outcome of interest was severe periodontitis diagnosed by the Centre for Disease Control-American Academy of Periodontology, defined as 2 or more interproximal sites with a clinical attachment level ≥6 mm (on different teeth) and 1 or more interproximal sites with a periodontal pocket depth ≥5 mm. Risk prediction models were developed using mixed-effects logistic regression (MELR), recurrent neural network, mixed-effects support vector machine, and mixed-effects decision tree models. A total of 21 features were considered as predictive features, including 4 demographic characteristics, 2 physical examinations, 4 underlying diseases, 1 medication, 2 risk behaviors, 2 oral features, and 6 laboratory features. RESULTS: A total of 3883 observations from 2086 participants were split into development (n=3112, 80.1%) and validation (n=771, 19.9%) sets with prevalences of periodontitis of 34.4% (n=1070) and 34.1% (n=263), respectively. The final MELR model contained 6 features (gender, education, smoking, diabetes mellitus, number of teeth, and plaque score) with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.983 (95% CI 0.977-0.989) and positive likelihood ratio (LR+) of 11.9 (95% CI 8.8-16.3). Machine learning yielded lower performance than the MELR model, with AUC (95% CI) and LR+ (95% CI) values of 0.712 (0.669-0.754) and 2.1 (1.8-2.6), respectively, for the recurrent neural network model; 0.698 (0.681-0.734) and 2.1 (1.7-2.6), respectively, for the mixed-effects support vector machine model; and 0.662 (0.621-0.702) and 2.4 (1.9-3.0), respectively, for the mixed-effects decision tree model. CONCLUSIONS: The MELR model might be more useful than machine learning for large-scale screening to identify those at high risk of severe periodontitis for periodontal evaluation. External validation using data from other centers is required to evaluate the generalizability of the model.