Emergency Medical Service Utilization and Response Following COVID-19 Emergency and Stay-at-Home Policies: An Interrupted Time-Series Analysis.

Objective Examine changing emergency medical services (EMS) utilization and response patterns associated with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) emergency declaration and stay-at-home orders during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods We conducted an uncontrolled interrupted time series analysis of EMS calls (January 1, 2019 - March 1, 2021) in Marin County, California analyzing call volume (All calls, n=46,055); patient refusal of EMS care or transport and patient care resolved on scene (Calls with opportunity for transport; n=37,401); and call severity (Transported calls; n=27,887). Results Pre-COVID-19 (1/1/2019-3/2/2020), EMS transported patients were predominately female (50.6%), 80+ years old (31.6%), and Marin County residents (68.0%). During COVID-19 (3/3/2020-3/1/2021), EMS transported patients were predominately male (52.7%), 35-64 years old (29.8%), and Marin County residents (70.4%). After the first stay-at-home order on 3/17/2020, call volume immediately decreased by 48% (adjusted incidence rate ratio [aIRR]=0.52; 95% CI=0.35,0.79) for children (0-15 years) and 34% for adults 80+ years (aIRR=0.66;95% CI=0.46,0.95). The odds of a transported call being prioritized as severe doubled (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]=2.26; 95% CI=1.11,4.59). Though transport refusals increased by 69% for children after the first order (aOR, 1.69 [95% CI, 1.13-2.52]), immediately following the second order on 12/8/2020, transport refusals decreased by 30% for children but increased 38-40% for adults 35-79 years (aOR=1.40 [95% CI=1.04-1.89] for 35-64 years; 1.38 [95% CI=1.02-1.87] for 65-79 years). Calls resolved on scene by EMS increased after the first order among all ages and after the second order for adults 16-79 years.  Conclusions Call volume reduced for children and older adults after the first COVID-19 stay-at-home order. Changes in call severity, patient care refusals, and on-scene care provided by EMS indicated a changing role for EMS during the outbreak.

Determinants of geographical inequalities for DTP3 vaccine coverage in sub-Saharan Africa.

Childhood immunization is one of the most effective health interventions, making it a key indicator of progress towards universal health coverage. In the last decade, improvements in coverage have been made globally, however, slow progress has been documented in sub-Saharan Africa with considerable subnational variations. We explore potential drivers of equitable immunization services based on subnational DTP3 coverage estimates. Using vaccine coverage at the 5 by 5 km area from 2000 to 2016, we quantify inequality using three measures. We assess the shortfall inequality which is the average deviation across subnational units from that with the highest coverage for each country. Secondly we estimate the threshold index, the proportion of children below a globally set subnational coverage target, and lastly, a Gini coefficient representing the within-country distribution of coverage. We use time series analyses to quantify associations with immunization expenditures controlling for country socio-economic and population characteristics. Development assistance, maternal education and governance were associated with reductions in inequality. Furthermore, high quality governance was associated with a stronger relationship between development assistance and reductions in inequality. Results from this analysis also indicate that countries with the lowest coverage suffer the highest inequalities. We highlight growing inequalities among countries which have met national coverage targets such as South Africa and Kenya. In 2016, values for the shortfall inequality ranged from 1% to 43%, the threshold index from 0% to 100% and Gini coefficient from 0.01 to 0.37. Burundi, Comoros, Eswatini, Lesotho, Namibia, Rwanda, and Sao Tome and Principe had the least shortfall inequality (<5%) while Angola, Ethiopia and Nigeria had values greater than 40%. A similar picture was noted for the other dimensions of inequality among these particular countries. Immunization program investments offer promise in addressing inequality, however, domestic mechanisms for resource implementation and accountability should be strengthened to maximize gains in coverage.

Effect of donor funding for immunization from Gavi and other development assistance channels on vaccine coverage: Evidence from 120 low and middle income recipient countries.

Donor assistance for immunization has remained resilient with increased resource mobilization efforts in recent years to achieve current global coverage targets. As a result, more countries continue to introduce new vaccines while optimizing coverage for traditional vaccines. Gavi the Vaccine Alliance has been at the forefront of immunization support specifically among low and middle income countries, alongside other channels of development assistance which continue to play a vital role in immunization. Using available recipient country level data from 1996 to 2016, we estimate the impact of Gavi support for vaccines and health systems strengthening on vaccine coverage for 3 dose DPT, 3 dose pneumococcal conjugate vaccine, 3 dose pentavalent, 2 dose measles and 2 dose rotavirus vaccines. We investigate the same effects of total aid for immunization from other channels of development assistance. Standard time series cross sectional analysis methods are applied to investigate the effects of vaccine support controlling for country income, governance and population, with robustness tests implemented using different model specifications. Double counting was eliminated and results are presented in real 2017 US dollars. We found significant positive effects of aid particularly among the newer vaccines. Using 2016 country specific disbursements and coverage levels as baseline, we estimated that among recipient countries below the universal target, additional DAH per capita required to reach 90%, ranged from 0.01USD to 4.33USD for PCV, 0.03USD to 9.06USD for pentavalent vaccine and 0.01USD to 2.57USD for rotavirus vaccine. The estimated number of children vaccinated through 2016, attributable to Gavi support totaled 46.6million, 75.2million and 12.3million for PCV, pentavalent and rotavirus vaccines respectively. Our analysis suggests substantial success both from a historical and prospective perspective in the implementation of global immunization initiatives thus far. As more vaccines are rolled out and countries transition from donor aid, strategies for fiscal sustainability and efficiency need to be strengthened in order to achieve universal immunization coverage.

Tracking donor funding towards achieving the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP) goals: A landscape analysis (1990-2016).

Efforts driving universal coverage have recently been strengthened through implementation of the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP) where cost estimates for immunization support were developed totaling US$40 billion of donor assistance by 2020. In addition to resource mobilization, there has been an increasing focus on improving both vaccine access and delivery systems. We track donor assistance for immunization by funding objective and channel from 1990 to 2016, and illustrate projections through 2020 to inform progress of the GVAP. Using available data from development agencies supporting immunization, we categorize funding by vaccine and quantify support for systems strengthening. We split time into four periods including the post universal childhood immunization era (1990-1999) and Gavi's three funding phases between 2000 and 2015, during which annualized funding changes are estimated. Lastly, we perform a linear extrapolation through 2020 to predict the success of stipulated resource mobilization targets. Double counting was eliminated and results presented in real 2017 US dollars. Over the last 27 years, funding for immunization increased by 10.5% annually, with non-Gavi funding increasing by 7.1% and Gavi funding by 23.6% in the last 17 years. Gavi disbursements targeting vaccines and health system improvements increased uniformly at 15%, compared to 22.5% for vaccines and 11.7% for system strengthening from non-Gavi channels. Funding fluctuated for non-Gavi channels with disbursements declining before 2000 and during Gavi funding phase II, while Gavi disbursements continued to grow relative the previous phase. New and underused vaccines were prioritized by Gavi whereas non-Gavi channels focused on elimination efforts. Projected funding targets were estimated to be on track for Gavi contrary to non-Gavi support which was estimated to remain 40% below the stipulated target. Renewed assessments for funding requirements need to be undertaken, while strengthening existing resource efficiencies in order to achieve current global universal coverage targets.

Continuum of HIV Care in Rural Mozambique: The Implications of HIV Testing Modality on Linkage and Retention.

INTRODUCTION: Context-specific improvements in the continuum of HIV care are needed to achieve the UNAIDS target of 90-90-90. This study aimed to assess the linkage to and retention in HIV care according to different testing modalities in rural southern Mozambique. METHODS: Adults newly diagnosed with HIV from voluntary counseling and testing, provider-initiated counseling and testing, and home-based HIV testing services were prospectively enrolled between 2014 and 2015 at the Manhiça District. Patients were passively followed up through chart examination. Tracing was performed at 12 months to ascertain causes of loss to follow-up. Fine and Gray competing risk analysis was performed to determine factors associated with the each step of the cascade. RESULTS: Overall linkage to care as defined by having a CD4 count at 3 months was 43.7% [95% confidence interval (CI): 40.8 to 46.6] and 25.2% of all participants initiated antiretroviral therapy. Factors associated with increased linkage in multivariable analysis included testing at voluntary counseling and testing, older age, having been previously tested for HIV, owning a cell phone, presenting with WHO clinical stages III/IV, self-reported illness-associated disability in the previous month, and later calendar month of participant recruitment. Ascertaining deaths and transfers allowed for adjustment of the rate of 12-month retention in treatment from 75.6% (95% CI: 70.2 to 80.5) to 84.2% (95% CI: 79.2 to 88.5). CONCLUSIONS: Home-based HIV testing reached a sociodemographically distinct population from that of clinic-based testing modalities but low linkage to care points to a need for facilitated linkage interventions. Distinguishing between true treatment defaulting and other causes of loss to follow-up can significantly change indicators of retention in care.

Awareness of cervical cancer and willingness to be vaccinated against human papillomavirus in Mozambican adolescent girls.

Sub-Saharan Africa concentrates the largest burden of cervical cancer worldwide. The introduction of the HPV vaccination in this region is urgent and strategic to meet global health targets. This was a cross-sectional study conducted in Mozambique prior to the first round of the HPV vaccine demonstration programme. It targeted girls aged 10-19 years old identified from schools and households. Face-to-face structured interviews were conducted. A total of 1147 adolescents were enrolled in three selected districts of the country. Most girls [84% (967/1147)] had heard of cervical cancer, while 76% believed that cervical cancer could be prevented. However only 33% (373/1144) of girls recognized having ever heard of HPV. When girls were asked whether they would accept to be vaccinated if a vaccine was available in Mozambique, 91% (1025/1130) answered positively. Girls from the HPV demonstration districts showed higher awareness on HPV and cervical cancer, and willingness to be vaccinated. This study anticipates high acceptability of the HPV vaccine in Mozambique and high awareness about cervical cancer, despite low HPV knowledge. These results highlight that targeted health education programmes are critical for acceptance of new tools, and are encouraging for the reduction of cervical cancer related mortality and morbidity in Mozambique.

Correction: High Rates of Non-Tuberculous Mycobacteria Isolation in Mozambican Children with Presumptive Tuberculosis.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0169757.].

High Rates of Non-Tuberculous Mycobacteria Isolation in Mozambican Children with Presumptive Tuberculosis.

INTRODUCTION: Non-tuberculous mycobacteria (NTM) can cause disease which can be clinically and radiologically undistinguishable from tuberculosis (TB), posing a diagnostic and therapeutic challenge in high TB settings. We aim to describe the prevalence of NTM isolation and its clinical characteristics in children from rural Mozambique. METHODS: This study was part of a community TB incidence study in children <3 years of age. Gastric aspirate and induced sputum sampling were performed in all presumptive TB cases and processed for smear testing using fluorochrome staining and LED Microscopy, liquid and solid culture, and molecular identification by GenoType® Mycobacterium CM/AS assays. RESULTS: NTM were isolated in 26.3% (204/775) of children. The most prevalent NTM species was M. intracellulare (N = 128), followed by M. scrofulaceum (N = 35) and M. fortuitum (N = 9). Children with NTM were significantly less symptomatic and less likely to present with an abnormal chest radiograph than those with M. tuberculosis. NTM were present in 21.6% of follow-up samples and 25 children had the same species isolated from ≥2 separate samples. All were considered clinically insignificant and none received specific treatment. Children with NTM isolates had equal all cause mortality and likelihood of TB treatment as those with negative culture although they were less likely to have TB ruled out. CONCLUSIONS: NTM isolation is frequent in presumptive TB cases but was not clinically significant in this patient cohort. However, it can contribute to TB misdiagnosis. Further studies are needed to understand the epidemiology and the clinical significance of NTM in children.

Poor tuberculosis treatment outcomes in Southern Mozambique (2011-2012).

BACKGROUND: In Mozambique, there is limited data regarding the monitoring of Tuberculosis (TB) treatment results and determinants of adverse outcomes under routine surveillance conditions. The objectives of this study were to evaluate treatment outcomes among TB patients, analyze factors associated with a fatal outcome and determine the proportion of deaths attributable to TB in the district of Manhiça, Southern Mozambique. METHODS: This is a retrospective observational study based on TB patients diagnosed in the period 2011-2012. We used three different data sources: a) TB related variables collected by the National TB Control Program in the district of Manhiça for all TB cases starting treatment in the period 2011-2012. b) Population estimates for the district were obtained through the Mozambican National Statistics Institute. c) Deaths and other relevant demographic variables were collected from the Health and Demographic Surveillance System at Manhiça Health Research Center. WHO guidelines were used to define TB cases and treatment outcomes. RESULTS: Of the 1957 cases starting TB treatment in the period 2011-2012, 294 patients (15.1 %) died during anti-tuberculous treatment. Ten per cent of patients defaulted treatment. The proportion of patients considered to have treatment failure was 1.1 %. HIV infection (OR 2.73; 95 % CI: 1.70-4.38), being male (OR: 1.39; 95 % CI 1.01-1.91) and lack of laboratory confirmation (OR: 1.54; 95 % CI 1.12-2.13) were associated with dying during the course of TB treatment (p value <0.05). The contribution of TB to the overall death burden of the district for natural reasons was 6.5 % (95 % CI: 5.5-7.6), higher for males than for females (7.8 %; 95 % CI: 6.1-9.5 versus 5.4 %; 95 % CI: 4.1-6.8 respectively). The age group within which TB was responsible for the highest proportion of deaths was 30-34 among males and 20-24 among females (20 % of all deaths in both cases). CONCLUSION: This study shows a very high proportion of fatal outcomes among TB cases starting treatment. There is a high contribution of TB to the overall causes of mortality. These results call for action in order to improve TB (and TB/HIV) management and thus treatment outcomes of TB patients.

HIV Incidence and Spatial Clustering in a Rural Area of Southern Mozambique.

BACKGROUND: Monitoring the HIV epidemic in a defined population is critical for planning treatment and preventive strategies. This is especially important in sub-Saharan Africa, which harbours the highest burden of the disease. OBJECTIVE: To estimate HIV incidence in adults aged 18-47 years old and to investigate spatial variations of HIV prevalence in Manhiça, a semi-rural area of southern Mozambique. METHODS: Two cross-sectional community-based surveys were conducted in 2010 and 2012 to determine HIV prevalence. Individual participants were randomly selected from the demographic surveillance system in place in the area and voluntary HIV counselling and testing was offered at the household level. HIV incidence was calculated using prevalence estimates from the two sero-surveys. Each participant's household was geocoded using a global information system. The Spatial Scan Statistics programme was used to identify areas with disproportionate excess in HIV prevalence. RESULTS: A total of 1511 adults were tested. The estimated HIV prevalence in the community was 39.9% in 2010 and 39.7% in 2012. The overall HIV incidence was 3.6 new infections per 100 person-years at risk (PYAR) [95CI 1.56; 7.88], assuming stable epidemic conditions, and tended to be higher in women (4.9/100 PYAR [95CI 1.74; 11.85]) than in men (3.2/PYAR [95CI 1.36; 9.92]). One cluster with significant excess HIV prevalence was identified at the same geographic location in both surveys. This cluster had an HIV prevalence of 79.0% in 2010 and 52.3% in 2012. CONCLUSIONS: The findings of these first individually-randomised community-HIV sero-surveys conducted in Mozambique reinforce the need to combine HIV incidence estimates and research on micro geographical infection patterns to guide and consolidate effective prevention strategies.