Phenological shifts in lake stratification under climate change.

One of the most important physical characteristics driving lifecycle events in lakes is stratification. Already subtle variations in the timing of stratification onset and break-up (phenology) are known to have major ecological effects, mainly by determining the availability of light, nutrients, carbon and oxygen to organisms. Despite its ecological importance, historic and future global changes in stratification phenology are unknown. Here, we used a lake-climate model ensemble and long-term observational data, to investigate changes in lake stratification phenology across the Northern Hemisphere from 1901 to 2099. Under the high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenario, stratification will begin 22.0 ± 7.0 days earlier and end 11.3 ± 4.7 days later by the end of this century. It is very likely that this 33.3 ± 11.7 day prolongation in stratification will accelerate lake deoxygenation with subsequent effects on nutrient mineralization and phosphorus release from lake sediments. Further misalignment of lifecycle events, with possible irreversible changes for lake ecosystems, is also likely.

The wind-driven formation of cross-shelf sediment plumes in a large lake.

Wind-driven turbidity plumes frequently occur in the western arm of Lake Superior and may represent a significant cross shelf transport mechanism for sediment, nutrient and biota. Here we characterize a plume that formed in late April 2016 using observations from in situ sensors and remote sensing imagery, and estimate the volume of cross shelf transport using both the observations and an idealized analytical model of plume formation. The steady-state, barotropic model is used to determine a relationship between the intensity and duration of a wind event and the volume of water transported from nearshore to offshore during the event. The model transport is the result of nearshore flow in the direction of the wind and a pressure-gradient-driven counter flow in the deeper offshore waters, consistent with observations. The volume of offshore transport associated with the 2016 plume is estimated by both methods to have been on the order of 1010 m3. Analysis of similar events from 2008-2016 shows a strong relationship between specific wind impulse and plume volume. Differences in the intensity and duration of individual events as well as ice cover, which prevents plume formation, lead to interannual variability of offshore transport ranging over an order of magnitude and illustrates how wind-driven processes may contribute to interannual variability of ecosystem functioning.

A global database of lake surface temperatures collected by in situ and satellite methods from 1985-2009.

Global environmental change has influenced lake surface temperatures, a key driver of ecosystem structure and function. Recent studies have suggested significant warming of water temperatures in individual lakes across many different regions around the world. However, the spatial and temporal coherence associated with the magnitude of these trends remains unclear. Thus, a global data set of water temperature is required to understand and synthesize global, long-term trends in surface water temperatures of inland bodies of water. We assembled a database of summer lake surface temperatures for 291 lakes collected in situ and/or by satellites for the period 1985-2009. In addition, corresponding climatic drivers (air temperatures, solar radiation, and cloud cover) and geomorphometric characteristics (latitude, longitude, elevation, lake surface area, maximum depth, mean depth, and volume) that influence lake surface temperatures were compiled for each lake. This unique dataset offers an invaluable baseline perspective on global-scale lake thermal conditions as environmental change continues.