Performance of SCORE2 and SCORE2-OP risk algorithms in a Cypriot cohort.

BACKGROUND: SCORE2 and SCORE2-OP algorithms and associated online calculators provide a new and easy method of estimating the 10-year cardiovascular risk in apparently healthy Europeans. The aim of the study was to determine the performance of these algorithms in terms of discrimination and calibration in the cohort of the Cyprus Epidemiological Study on Atherosclerosis (CESA), not only for the 10-year risk for myocardial infarction (MI), stroke and cardiovascular death, but also for all types of atherosclerotic cardiovascular events (ASCVE). METHODS: SCORE2 and SCORE2-OP for low-risk regions were calculated in a non-diabetic subset of CESA consisting of 908 people (mean age±SD: 57.8±10.5; range 40-89; 58.8% female) using baseline risk factors. Mean follow-up was 13.2±3.7 years (range 1-17) with 89 primary endpoints (MI, stroke and cardiovascular death) and 136 secondary endpoints (primary endpoints, angina, cardiac failure, coronary revascularization, transient ischemic attack, claudication and critical limb ischemia). RESULTS: The C-statistic for the prediction of the primary endpoint for all ages was 0.76 (95% CI 0.70 to 0.81) and the observed 10-year event rate was similar to the predicted one. However, the observed 10-year rate for secondary events was similar to the estimated one only when the algorithm for high-risk regions was used. CONCLUSIONS: SCORE2 and SCORE2-OP moderate risk algorithms perform well in the Cypriot population for predicting the 10-year risk for MI, stroke and fatal cardiovascular disease. However, an estimate of the 10-year risk for all ASCVD events is best calculated from the high-risk algorithm.

Arterial Ultrasound Testing to Predict Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Events.

BACKGROUND: Studies have indicated that the presence and size of subclinical atherosclerotic plaques improve the prediction of atherosclerotic cardiovascular events (ASCVE) over and above that provided by conventional risk factors alone. However, the relative contribution of different ultrasonographic measurements and sites of measurements on the 10-year ASCVD risk is largely unknown. OBJECTIVES: Our aims were to determine the relative performance of carotid intima-media thickness, plaque thickness, and plaque area in 10-year ASCVD prediction when added to conventional risk factors as well as whether the vascular territory of these measurements, carotid or common femoral bifurcation, and the number of bifurcations with plaque (NBP) influence prediction. METHODS: We enrolled 985 adults (mean age: 58.1 ± 10.2 years) free of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. Conventional risk factors were recorded, and both carotid and common femoral bifurcations were scanned with ultrasonography. The primary endpoint was a composite of first-time fatal or nonfatal ASCVE. RESULTS: Over a mean ± SD follow-up of 13.2 ± 3.7 years, ASCVE occurred in 154 (15.6%) participants. By adding different plaque measurements to conventional risk factors in a Cox model, net reclassification improvement was 10.4% with maximum intima-media thickness, 9.5% with carotid plaque thickness, and 14.2% with carotid plaque area. It increased to 16.1%, 16.6%, and 16.6% (P < 0.0001) by adding measurements from 4 bifurcations: NBP, total plaque thickness, and total plaque area, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: NBP, total plaque thickness, or total plaque area from both the carotid and common femoral bifurcations provides a better prediction of future ASCVE than measurements from a single site. The results need to be validated in an independent cohort.