Achievable agricultural soil carbon sequestration across Europe from country-specific estimates.

The role of soils in the global carbon cycle and in reducing GHG emissions from agriculture has been increasingly acknowledged. The '4 per 1000' (4p1000) initiative has become a prominent action plan for climate change mitigation and achieve food security through an annual increase in soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks by 0.4%, (i.e. 4‰ per year). However, the feasibility of the 4p1000 scenario and, more generally, the capacity of individual countries to implement soil carbon sequestration (SCS) measures remain highly uncertain. Here, we evaluated country-specific SCS potentials of agricultural land for 24 countries in Europe. Based on a detailed survey of available literature, we estimate that between 0.1% and 27% of the agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can potentially be compensated by SCS annually within the next decades. Measures varied widely across countries, indicating differences in country-specific environmental conditions and agricultural practices. None of the countries' SCS potential reached the aspirational goal of the 4p1000 initiative, suggesting that in order to achieve this goal, a wider range of measures and implementation pathways need to be explored. Yet, SCS potentials exceeded those from previous pan-European modelling scenarios, underpinning the general need to include national/regional knowledge and expertise to improve estimates of SCS potentials. The complexity of the chosen SCS measurement approaches between countries ranked from tier 1 to tier 3 and included the effect of different controlling factors, suggesting that methodological improvements and standardization of SCS accounting are urgently required. Standardization should include the assessment of key controlling factors such as realistic areas, technical and practical feasibility, trade-offs with other GHG and climate change. Our analysis suggests that country-specific knowledge and SCS estimates together with improved data sharing and harmonization are crucial to better quantify the role of soils in offsetting anthropogenic GHG emissions at global level.

Afforestation effects on SOC in former cropland: oak and spruce chronosequences resampled after 13 years.

Chronosequences are commonly used to assess soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration after land-use change, but SOC dynamics predicted by this space-for-time substitution approach have rarely been validated by resampling. We conducted a combined chronosequence/resampling study in a former cropland area (Vestskoven) afforested with oak (Quercus robur) and Norway spruce (Picea abies) over the past 40 years. The aims of this study were (i) to compare present and previous chronosequence trends in forest floor and top mineral soil (0-25 cm) C stocks; (ii) to compare chronosequence estimates with current rates of C stock change based on resampling at the stand level; (iii) to estimate SOC changes in the subsoil (25-50 cm); and (iv) to assess the influence of two tree species on SOC dynamics. The two chronosequence trajectories for forest floor C stocks revealed consistently higher rates of C sequestration in spruce than oak. The chronosequence trajectory was validated by resampling and current rates of forest floor C sequestration decreased with stand age. Chronosequence trends in topsoil SOC in 2011 did not differ significantly from those reported in 1998, however, there was a shift from a negative rate (1998: -0.3 Mg C ha(-1) yr(-1) ) to no change in 2011. In contrast SOC stocks in the subsoil increased with stand age, however, not significantly (P = 0.1), suggesting different C dynamics in and below the former plough layer. Current rates of C change estimated by repeated sampling decreased with stand age in forest floors but increased in the topsoil. The contrasting temporal change in forest floor and mineral soil C sequestration rates indicate a shift in C source-sink strength after approximately 40 years. We conclude that afforestation of former cropland within the temperate region may induce soil C loss during the first decades followed by a recovery phase of yet unknown duration.