Assessing injury risk in male and female Royal Navy recruits: does the Functional Movement Screen provide understanding to inform effective injury mitigation?

INTRODUCTION: Musculoskeletal injuries (MSKIs) are common during military and other occupational physical training programmes, and employers have a duty of care to mitigate this injury risk. MSKIs account for a high number of working days lost during initial military training, contribute to training attrition and impact training costs. Poorer movement quality may be associated with increased MSKI risk. METHODS: The present study evaluated the relationship between the Functional Movement Screen (FMS) Score, as a measure of movement quality, and injury risk in Royal Navy (RN) recruits. A cohort of 957 recruits was assessed using the FMS prior to the 10-week phase I training programme. Injury occurrence, time, type and severity were recorded prospectively during the training period. RESULTS: Total FMS Score was associated with injury risk (p≤0.001), where recruits scoring ≥13 were 2.6 times more likely to sustain an injury during training. However, FMS Score accounted for only 10% of the variance in injury risk (R2=0.1). Sex was the only additional variable to significantly affect the regression model. Mean FMS Scores for men (14.6±2.3) and women (14.4±2.4) were similar, but injury occurrence in women was 1.7 times greater than in men. Examining the influence of individual FMS movement tests on injury prediction did not improve the model, where those movements that significantly contributed to injury prediction only accounted for a small amount of the variance (R2=0.01). CONCLUSION: There was a weak relationship between FMS and injury risk in RN recruits. Evidence is provided that FMS score alone would not be appropriate to use as an injury prediction tool in military recruits.

Sensitivity of contact-tracing for COVID-19 in Thailand: a capture-recapture application.

BACKGROUND: We investigate the completeness of contact tracing for COVID-19 during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Thailand, from early January 2020 to 30 June 2020. METHODS: Uni-list capture-recapture models were applied to the frequency distributions of index cases to inform two questions: (1) the unobserved number of index cases with contacts, and (2) the unobserved number of index cases with secondary cases among their contacts. RESULTS: Generalized linear models (using Poisson and logistic families) did not return any significant predictor (age, sex, nationality, number of contacts per case) on the risk of transmission and hence capture-recapture models did not adjust for observed heterogeneity. Best fitting models, a zero truncated negative binomial for question 1 and zero-truncated Poisson for question 2, returned sensitivity estimates for contact tracing performance of 77.6% (95% CI = 73.75-81.54%) and 67.6% (95% CI = 53.84-81.38%), respectively. A zero-inflated negative binomial model on the distribution of index cases with secondary cases allowed the estimation of the effective reproduction number at 0.14 (95% CI = 0.09-0.22), and the overdispersion parameter at 0.1. CONCLUSION: Completeness of COVID-19 contact tracing in Thailand during the first wave appeared moderate, with around 67% of infectious transmission chains detected. Overdispersion was present suggesting that most of the index cases did not result in infectious transmission chains and the majority of transmission events stemmed from a small proportion of index cases.

Youden's Index and the Likelihood Ratio Positive in Diagnostic Testing.

We refer to a recent letter to the editor by Hughes and show that, despite existing similarities between Youden's index and the log-likelihood ratio positive, important differences between these two measures remain to exist which can play an important difference in clinical practice.

Extending the Lincoln-Petersen estimator for multiple identifications in one source.

The Lincoln-Petersen estimator is one of the most popular estimators used in capture-recapture studies. It was developed for a sampling situation in which two sources independently identify members of a target population. For each of the two sources, it is determined if a unit of the target population is identified or not. This leads to a 2 × 2 table with frequencies f11 ,f10 ,f01 ,f00 indicating the number of units identified by both sources, by the first but not the second source, by the second but not the first source and not identified by any of the two sources, respectively. However, f00 is unobserved so that the 2 × 2 table is incomplete and the Lincoln-Petersen estimator provides an estimate for f00 . In this paper, we consider a generalization of this situation for which one source provides not only a binary identification outcome but also a count outcome of how many times a unit has been identified. Using a truncated Poisson count model, truncating multiple identifications larger than two, we propose a maximum likelihood estimator of the Poisson parameter and, ultimately, of the population size. This estimator shows benefits, in comparison with Lincoln-Petersen's, in terms of bias and efficiency. It is possible to test the homogeneity assumption that is not testable in the Lincoln-Petersen framework. The approach is applied to surveillance data on syphilis from Izmir, Turkey.

Application of one-list capture-recapture models to scrapie surveillance data in Great Britain.

In this paper, we apply one-list capture-recapture models to estimate the number of scrapie-affected holdings in Great Britain. We applied this technique to the Compulsory Scrapie Flocks Scheme dataset where cases from all the surveillance sources monitoring the presence of scrapie in Great Britain, the abattoir survey, the fallen stock survey and the statutory reporting of clinical cases, are gathered. Consequently, the estimates of prevalence obtained from this scheme should be comprehensive and cover all the different presentations of the disease captured individually by the surveillance sources. Two estimators were applied under the one-list approach: the Zelterman estimator and Chao's lower bound estimator. Our results could only inform with confidence the scrapie-affected holding population with clinical disease; this moved around the figure of 350 holdings in Great Britain for the period under study, April 2005-April 2006. Our models allowed the stratification by surveillance source and the input of covariate information, holding size and country of origin. None of the covariates appear to inform the model significantly.

Reproducibility, interrater agreement, and age-related changes of fractional anisotropy measures at 3T in healthy subjects: effect of the applied b-value.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: There is no reproducibility study of fractional anisotropy (FA) measurements at 3T using regions of interest (ROIs). Our purpose was to establish the extent and statistical significance of the interrater variability, the variability observed with 2 different b-values, and in 2 separate scanning sessions. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Twelve healthy volunteers underwent MR imaging twice. MR imaging was performed on a 3T unit, and FA maps were analyzed independently by 2 observers using ROIs positioned in the corpus callosum, internal capsules, corticospinal tracts, and right thalamus. Changes in FA values (x10(3)) measured with 2 b-values (700 and 1000 s/mm(2)), age-related differences, interobserver agreement, and measurement reproducibility were assessed. RESULTS: In the right internal capsule genu (FA = 702/728; b = 1000/700 s/mm(2)) and the left anterior limb of the internal capsule (AIC; FA = 617/745; b = 1000/700 s/mm(2)), the FA values were significantly different between the 2 b-values (P = .02 and .05, respectively). Significant age-related differences in FA were observed in the genu of the corpus callosum and in the left AIC. Interrater measurements showed fair-to-moderate agreement for most anatomic structures. The lowest significant change for a single subject regarding any FA values between the 2 sessions was in the corpus callosum (4%), whereas the highest one was in the corticospinal tracts (27%). The Bland-Altman plot analysis showed that the 1000-s/mm(2) b-value gave satisfactorily reproducible measurements equally good or better than the 700-s/mm(2) b-value. CONCLUSION: The reproducibility of FA estimates using ROIs was satisfactory. Measurements with a b-value at 1000 s/mm(2) showed superior reproducibility in most anatomic locations.

Meta-analysis: a unifying meta-likelihood approach framing unobserved heterogeneity, study covariates, publication bias, and study quality.

OBJECTIVES: This contribution provides a unifying concept for meta-analysis integrating the handling of unobserved heterogeneity, study covariates, publication bias and study quality. It is important to consider these issues simultaneously to avoid the occurrence of artifacts, and a method for doing so is suggested here. METHODS: The approach is based upon the meta-likelihood in combination with a general linear nonparametric mixed model, which lays the ground for all inferential conclusions suggested here. RESULTS: The concept is illustrated at hand of a meta-analysis investigating the relationship of hormone replacement therapy and breast cancer. The phenomenon of interest has been investigated in many studies for a considerable time and different results were reported. In 1992 a meta-analysis by Sillero-Arenas et al. concluded a small, but significant overall effect of 1.06 on the relative risk scale. Using the meta-likelihood approach it is demonstrated here that this meta-analysis is due to considerable unobserved heterogeneity. Furthermore, it is shown that new methods are available to model this heterogeneity successfully. It is argued further to include available study covariates to explain this heterogeneity in the meta-analysis at hand. CONCLUSIONS: The topic of HRT and breast cancer has again very recently become an issue of public debate, when results of a large trial investigating the health effects of hormone replacement therapy were published indicating an increased risk for breast cancer (risk ratio of 1.26). Using an adequate regression model in the previously published meta-analysis an adjusted estimate of effect of 1.14 can be given which is considerably higher than the one published in the meta-analysis of Sillero-Arenas et al. In summary, it is hoped that the method suggested here contributes further to a good meta-analytic practice in public health and clinical disciplines.

BOLD fMRI response to direct stimulation (transcranial magnetic stimulation) of the motor cortex shows no decline with age.

Previous studies using BOLD fMRI to examine age-related changes in cortical activation used tasks that relied on peripheral systems to activate the brain. They were unable to distinguish between alterations due to age-related changes in the periphery and actual changes in cortical physiology. Transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS), which allows direct, noninvasive stimulation of cortical neurons, was interleaved with BOLD fMRI to study 6 young and 5 old subjects. Three different tasks were compared: direct stimulation by TMS, indirect active stimulation produced by a motor task, and indirect passive stimulation produced by hearing the TMS coil discharge. Direct neuronal stimulation by TMS produced similar fMRI signal increases in both groups, suggesting that cortical physiology itself may not necessarily decline with age.

[Comparison of expertises between long-term care insurance (SGB XI) and the law on ambulatory care for disabled individuals in Berlin (HPG)]. / Ein Vergleich der sozialmedizinischen Begutachtungen zur Pflegeversicherung (SGB XI) und nach dem Berliner Landespflegegesetz (HPG).

A long-term care insurance (SGB XI) was established in Germany in 1995. Previously, care for predominantly disabled and disabled elderly people in Berlin was regulated by a law enforced by the Berlin government (HPG). The objective of this study was to investigate the differences in age, sex, diagnosis and care of the disabled individuals at home. In a cross-sectional study, the social medicine certificates of 3.916 disabled individuals were evaluated. The certificate assesses the grade of disability and the care needed for a person entitled to benefit from either the HPG or later from SGB XI. Disabled females benefiting from the HPG and SGB XI regulations are in the majority. The male: female ratio for HPG was 1:2.215 and for SGB XI 1:2.759. The differences between male and female as well as between HPG and SGB XI are statistically significant. The even higher proportion of females for those benefiting from SGB XI is due to the demographic change over time. The results of the study also show that the certificates differ in diagnosis, in the care needed at home, and in the grades of disability. By logistic regression analysis, the univariate method shows the amount of care needed at home to be greater for the HPG than for the long-term care insurance. The collective of disabled persons benefiting from HPG were derived from the ambulatory and the stationary sector. In this study, those individuals who were investigated and supported by SGB XI originated from the ambulatory sector, although the law also supports those under hospital care. By calculating analysis of multivariate logistic regression with grades of disability taken as dependent and disability of a given person as independent variables related to the grades of disability when applying SGB XI were compared to HPG. The independent variables have different hierarchies for both laws and need to be divided into more specific subgroups. Interestingly, age and sex did not influence the grading of disability. Diseases leading to disability differ between male and females. Males suffer mostly from neurologic and psychiatric and females from orthopaedic diseases. The criteria for the particular grades are too broad and a better specification is suggested, in that the grades should be increased from three to five. For exceptional cases, a more flexible procedure should be allowed, which is possible under the present SGB XI regulations.

Vagus nerve stimulation therapy: a research update.

Over the past 5 years, and especially within the last year, there has been a rapid expansion of vagus nerve stimulation (VNS)-related preclinical research, as well as clinical studies in indications other than epilepsy. The research advances in understanding VNS are occurring in the midst of a blossoming of other forms of therapeutic brain stimulation, such as electroconvulsive therapy (ECT), transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS), and deep brain stimulation (DBS). In general, improved understanding of the neurobiological effects of VNS therapy as a function of the different use parameters (frequency, intensity, pulse width, duration, dose) is beginning to guide clinical use and help determine which diseases, in addition to epilepsy, VNS might treat.

Brain effects of TMS delivered over prefrontal cortex in depressed adults: role of stimulation frequency and coil-cortex distance.

Relative regional brain blood flow was measured in 23 clinically depressed adults by using ECD SPECT at baseline and again during actual prefrontal transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) following 5 daily sessions of TMS. TMS over prefrontal cortex caused increased activity in cortex directly under the stimulation (inversely correlated with distance from scalp to cortex) and decreased activity in remote regions (anterior cingulate and anterior temporal poles). High-frequency rTMS (20 Hz) caused more relative flow immediately below the TMS coil than did low-frequency rTMS (5 Hz). Confirming the hypotheses tested, repeated daily TMS over the prefrontal cortex in medication-free depressed adults appears to change both local and remote blood flow in a manner that may also depend on the frequency of stimulation and coil to outer cortex distance.

Unilateral left prefrontal transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) produces intensity-dependent bilateral effects as measured by interleaved BOLD fMRI.

Transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) administered over the prefrontal cortex has been shown to subtly influence neuropsychological tasks, and has antidepressant effects when applied daily for several weeks. Prefrontal TMS does not, however, produce an immediate easily observable effect, making it hard to determine if one has stimulated the cortex. Most prefrontal TMS studies have stimulated using intensity relative to the more easily determined motor threshold (MT) over motor cortex. Five healthy adults were studied in a 1.5 T MRI scanner during short trains of 1 Hz TMS delivered with a figure eight MR compatible TMS coil followed by rest epochs. In a randomized manner, left prefrontal TMS was delivered at 80%, 100% and 120% of MT interleaved with BOLD fMRI acquisition. Compared to rest, all TMS epochs activated auditory cortex, with 80% MT having no other areas of significant activation. 100% MT showed contralateral activation and 120% MT showed bilateral prefrontal activation. Higher intensity TMS, compared to lower, in general produced more activity both under the coil and contralaterally. Higher prefrontal TMS stimulation intensity produces greater local and contralateral activation. Importantly, unilateral prefrontal TMS produces bilateral effects, and TMS at 80% MT produces only minimal prefrontal cortex activation.

Feasibility of vagus nerve stimulation-synchronized blood oxygenation level-dependent functional MRI.

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES: Left cervical vagus nerve stimulation (VNS) by use of an implanted neurocybernetic prosthesis (NCP) system is effective in treating epilepsy, with open data suggesting effectiveness in depression, yet the mechanisms of action are unknown. Our objective was to develop a methodology for performing VNS-synchronized functional magnetic resonance imaging (VNS-fMRI) and then to demonstrate its feasibility for studying VNS effects. METHODS: In nine patients implanted for treatment of intractable depression, a Macintosh computer was used to detect the signal from the implanted VNS stimulator and then to synchronize fMRI image acquisition with its regular firing. RESULTS: With our VNS-fMRI methodology, the blood oxygenation level-dependent response to VNS was shown in brain regions regulated by the vagus nerve: orbitofrontal and parieto-occipital cortex bilaterally, left temporal cortex, the hypothalamus, and the left amygdala. CONCLUSIONS: Vagus nerve stimulation pulses from an NCP system can be detected externally to determine its firing pattern, thus allowing VNS-fMRI studies of VNS-induced brain activity.

A low-cost system for monitoring skin conductance during functional MRI.

We built a low-cost system for monitoring human skin conductance responses (SCRs) in a clinical magnetic resonance (MR) scanner during functional imaging. The average scanner-induced conductance noise level was suppressed sufficiently to allow SCR measurements over the full range of SCR amplitudes, and functional image signal-to-noise ratio was unaffected by the skin conductance apparatus. The system may be useful for a variety of imaging studies.

Deconvolution of transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) maps.

Transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) is a noninvasive method for local stimulation of cerebral cortex using a small coil's pulsed magnetic field. TMS response maps consist of measured responses to stimulations at points on a scalp-referenced grid and are used to study the topography of the brain's inhibitory and excitatory response. Because the magnetic field distributions of stimulation coils are 1-2 centimeters wide and 2-3 centimeters long, and the induced electric fields are even broader, the resolution of TMS maps is limited and the actual region of cortical stimulation is poorly defined. To better characterize the activation pattern, a practical mathematical procedure was developed for deconvolving a spherical model approximation of the coil's induced electric field distribution (here measured in a phantom) from the TMS response maps. This procedure offers an integrated, internally consistent method for processing TMS response maps to estimate the spatial distribution of motor cortex activations and inhibitions.

The transcranial magnetic stimulation motor threshold depends on the distance from coil to underlying cortex: a replication in healthy adults comparing two methods of assessing the distance to cortex.

Using transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS), a handheld electrified copper coil against the scalp produces a powerful and rapidly oscillating magnetic field, which in turn induces electrical currents in the brain. The amount of electrical energy needed for TMS to induce motor movement (called the motor threshold [MT]), varies widely across individuals. The intensity of TMS is dosed relative to the MT. Kozel et al observed in a depressed cohort that MT increases as a function of distance from coil to cortex. This article examines this relationship in a healthy cohort and compares the two methods of assessing distance to cortex. Seventeen healthy adults had their TMS MT determined and marked with a fiducial. Magnetic resonance images showed the fiducials marking motor cortex, allowing researchers to measure distance from scalp to motor and prefontal cortex using two methods: 1) measuring a line from scalp to the nearest cortex and 2) sampling the distance from scalp to cortex of two 18-mm-square areas. Confirming Kozel's previous finding, we observe that motor threshold increases as distance to motor cortex increased for both methods of measuring distance and that no significant correlation exists between MT and prefontal cortex distance. Distance from TMS coil to motor cortex is an important determinant of MT in healthy and depressed adults. Distance to prefontal cortex is not correlated with MT, raising questions about the common practice of dosing prefontal stimulation using MT determined over motor cortex.

Motor cortex brain activity induced by 1-Hz transcranial magnetic stimulation is similar in location and level to that for volitional movement.

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES: The relatively high temporal and spatial resolution of functional MR imaging was used to compare the blood oxygenation level dependent (BOLD) response associated with movement induced by transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) with that for a similar movement executed volitionally (VOL). METHODS: Seven healthy adults were studied in a 1.5-T MR scanner. One hertz TMS at 110% of motor threshold was applied over the motor cortex for the thumb in 21-pulse trains in alternation with VOL every 63 seconds and interleaved with functional MR imaging. RESULTS: BOLD increases in motor cortex associated with TMS and VOL movement were similar (2%-3%). Mean separation of their centers of activity was 3.7 + 1.9 mm (mean displacement: left/right = 0.3 +/- 4.1 mm; superior/inferior = 0.7 +/- 1.9 mm). There was no indication of supraphysiological brain activity. CONCLUSIONS: Motor cortex BOLD response associated with thumb movement induced by 1-Hz TMS at 110% motor threshold is similar in both location and level to that caused by a similar movement executed volitionally.