Enhancing COVID-19 forecasting precision through the integration of compartmental models, machine learning and variants.

Predicting epidemic evolution is essential for making informed decisions and guiding the implementation of necessary countermeasures. Computational models are vital tools that provide insights into illness progression and enable early detection, proactive intervention, and targeted preventive measures. This paper introduces Sybil, a framework that integrates machine learning and variant-aware compartmental models, leveraging a fusion of data-centric and analytic methodologies. To validate and evaluate Sybil's forecasts, we employed COVID-19 data from several European and U.S. states. The dataset included the number of new and recovered cases, fatalities, and variant presence over time. We evaluate the forecasting precision of Sybil in periods in which there is a change in the trend of the pandemic evolution or a new variant appears. Results demonstrate that Sybil outperforms conventional data-centric approaches, being able to forecast accurately the changes in the trend, the magnitude of these changes, and the future prevalence of new variants.

Convolutional neural network (CNN)-enabled electrocardiogram (ECG) analysis: a comparison between standard twelve-lead and single-lead setups.

Background: Artificial intelligence (AI) has shown promise in the early detection of various cardiac conditions from a standard 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG). However, the ability of AI to identify abnormalities from single-lead recordings across a range of pathological conditions remains to be systematically investigated. This study aims to assess the performance of a convolutional neural network (CNN) using a single-lead (D1) rather than a standard 12-lead setup for accurate identification of ECG abnormalities. Methods: We designed and trained a lightweight CNN to identify 20 different cardiac abnormalities on ECGs, using data from the PTB-XL dataset. With a relatively simple architecture, the network was designed to accommodate different combinations of leads as input (<100,000 learnable parameters). We compared various lead setups such as the standard 12-lead, D1 alone, and D1 paired with an additional lead. Results: This has been corrected to "The CNN based on single-lead ECG (D1) achieved satisfactory performance compared to the standard 12-lead framework (average percentage AUC difference: −8.7%). Notably, for certain diagnostic classes, there was no difference in the diagnostic AUC between the single-lead and the standard 12-lead setups. When a second lead was detected in the CNN in addition to D1, the AUC gap was further reduced to an average percentage difference of -2.8% compared with that of the standard 12-lead setup. Conclusions: A relatively lightweight CNN can predict different classes of cardiac abnormalities from D1 alone and the standard 12-lead ECG. Considering the growing availability of wearable devices capable of recording a D1-like single-lead ECG, we discuss how our findings contribute to the foundation of a large-scale screening of cardiac abnormalities.