Regression analysis of hydro-meteorological variables for climate change prediction: A case study of Chitral Basin, Hindukush region.

In the present study, hydro-meteorological variables of Chitral Basin in Hindukush region of Pakistan were studied to predict the changes in climatic components such as temperature, precipitation, humidity and river flow based on observed data from 1990 to 2019. Uncertainties in climate change projection were studied using various statistical methods, such as trend variability analysis via stationarity test and validation of regression assumptions prior to fitting of regression estimates. Also, multiple regression models were estimated for each hydro-meteorological variables for the given 30 years of observed data. Results demonstrated that temperature and, precipitation were inversely related with one another. It was observed from the regression model that temperature is decreases by 0.309 °C on the average increases in precipitation by one unit. Temperature also decreases for the increase in humidity by average 0.086 °C. Since, precipitation is negatively related with temperature, thus for increases in temperature the annual precipitation decreases by 0.278 mm annually. Humidity on the other hand, increases by 0.207% by increasing in precipitation and the temperature that causes humidity to decrease by 0.99%. Thus, it demonstrated that the flow in Chitral river increases due to precipitation by 0.306 m3/s for the change in precipitation by one unit. Findings from the present study negated the general perceptions that flow in the Chitral river has increased due to recession of glaciers with increase in the intensity of temperature.

Appraisal of groundwater recharge in Neelum watershed (Upper Indus Basin) using geospatial water balance technique.

Water availability is important for survival of millions of people living in the Himalayan region of Upper Indus Basin and adequate monitoring system is for better water resources management. In the present study, groundwater recharge appraisals in the Neelum watershed (Upper Indus Basin) were investigated by using water balance and geospatial modeling techniques on monthly time-scale climate data from 1989 to 2015. Results demonstrated that on an average out of total annual rainfall (i.e., 2028 mm), about 46% of the rainfall convert to surface runoff and 35% loss to atmosphere via evapo-transpiration (ET), while the remaining 18% contribute to infiltrate the groundwater recharge. Groundwater recharge enhanced during snow-melt from December to March and the rainfall infiltration increased during July and August months. Similarly, the infiltration ranges 106-177 mm from January to March and 45-51 mm from December to July. The groundwater discharge in the form of oozing from the spring occurred during the remaining six months, which ultimately contributed to the baseflow of the stream. Findings from the study revealed variations in groundwater recharge during the years and hence recommended more hydrological studies to predict future changes in climate and land use for sustainable development of freshwater resources in the Upper Indus Basin.

Assessment of tap water quality and corrosion scales from the selected distribution systems in northern Pakistan.

Corrosion deposits formed within drinking water distribution systems deteriorate drinking water quality and resultantly cause public health consequences. In the present study, an attempt was made to investigate the concurrent conditions of corrosion scales and the drinking water quality in selected water supply schemes (WSS) in districts Chitral, Peshawar, and Abbottabad, northern Pakistan. Characterization analyses of the corrosion by-products revealed the presence of α-FeOOH, γ-FeOOH, Fe3O4, and SiO2 as major constituents with different proportions. The constituents of all the representative XRD peaks of Peshawar WSS were found insignificant as compared to other WSS, and the reason could be the variation of source water quality. Well-crystallized particles in SEM images indicated the formation of dense oxide layer on corrosion by-products. A wider asymmetric vibration peak of SiO2 appeared only in Chitral and Abbottabad WSS, which demonstrated higher siltation in the water source. One-way ANOVA analysis showed significant variations in pH, turbidity, TDS, K, Mg, PO4, Cl, and SO4 values, which revealed that these parameters differently contributed to the source water quality. Findings from this study suggested the implementation of proper corrosion prevention measures and the establishment of international collaboration for best corrosion practices, expertise, and developing standards.