Climate warming threatens the persistence of a community of disturbance-adapted native annual plants.

With ongoing climate change, populations are expected to exhibit shifts in demographic performance that will alter where a species can persist. This presents unique challenges for managing plant populations and may require ongoing interventions, including in situ management or introduction into new locations. However, few studies have examined how climate change may affect plant demographic performance for a suite of species, or how effective management actions could be in mitigating climate change effects. Over the course of two experiments spanning 6 yr and four sites across a latitudinal gradient in the Pacific Northwest, United States, we manipulated temperature, precipitation, and disturbance intensity, and quantified effects on the demography of eight native annual prairie species. Each year we planted seeds and monitored germination, survival, and reproduction. We found that disturbance strongly influenced demographic performance and that seven of the eight species had increasingly poor performance with warmer conditions. Across species and sites, we observed 11% recruitment (the proportion of seeds planted that survived to reproduction) following high disturbance, but just 3.9% and 2.3% under intermediate and low disturbance, respectively. Moreover, mean seed production following high disturbance was often more than tenfold greater than under intermediate and low disturbance. Importantly, most species exhibited precipitous declines in their population growth rates (λ) under warmer-than-ambient experimental conditions and may require more frequent disturbance intervention to sustain populations. Aristida oligantha, a C4 grass, was the only species to have λ increase with warmer conditions. These results suggest that rising temperatures may cause many native annual plant species to decline, highlighting the urgency for adaptive management practices that facilitate their restoration or introduction to newly suitable locations. Frequent and intense disturbances are critical to reduce competitors and promote native annuals' persistence, but even such efforts may prove futile under future climate regimes.

Latitudinal gradients in population growth do not reflect demographic responses to climate.

Spatial gradients in population growth, such as across latitudinal or elevational gradients, are often assumed to primarily be driven by variation in climate, and are frequently used to infer species' responses to climate change. Here, we use a novel demographic, mixed-model approach to dissect the contributions of climate variables vs. other latitudinal or local site effects on spatiotemporal variation in population performance in three perennial bunchgrasses. For all three species, we find that performance of local populations decreases with warmer and drier conditions, despite latitudinal trends of decreasing population growth toward the cooler and wetter northern portion of each species' range. Thus, latitudinal gradients in performance are not predictive of either local or species-wide responses to climate. This pattern could be common, as many environmental drivers, such as habitat quality or species' interactions, are likely to vary with latitude or elevation, and thus influence or oppose climate responses.

Prairie plant phenology driven more by temperature than moisture in climate manipulations across a latitudinal gradient in the Pacific Northwest, USA.

Plant phenology will likely shift with climate change, but how temperature and/or moisture regimes will control phenological responses is not well understood. This is particularly true in Mediterranean climate ecosystems where the warmest temperatures and greatest moisture availability are seasonally asynchronous. We examined plant phenological responses at both the population and community levels to four climate treatments (control, warming, drought, and warming plus additional precipitation) embedded within three prairies across a 520 km latitudinal Mediterranean climate gradient within the Pacific Northwest, USA. At the population level, we monitored flowering and abundances in spring 2017 of eight range-restricted focal species planted both within and north of their current ranges. At the community level, we used normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) measured from fall 2016 to summer 2018 to estimate peak live biomass, senescence, seasonal patterns, and growing season length. We found that warming exerted a stronger control than our moisture manipulations on phenology at both the population and community levels. Warming advanced flowering regardless of whether a species was within or beyond its current range. Importantly, many of our focal species had low abundances, particularly in the south, suggesting that establishment, in addition to phenological shifts, may be a strong constraint on their future viability. At the community level, warming advanced the date of peak biomass regardless of site or year. The date of senescence advanced regardless of year for the southern and central sites but only in 2018 for the northern site. Growing season length contracted due to warming at the southern and central sites (~3 weeks) but was unaffected at the northern site. Our results emphasize that future temperature changes may exert strong influence on the timing of a variety of plant phenological events, especially those events that occur when temperature is most limiting, even in seasonally water-limited Mediterranean ecosystems.

Native soil fungi associated with compostable plastics in three contrasting agricultural settings.

Plastics are used widely as agricultural mulches to suppress weeds and retain soil moisture. Disposal of conventional plastic mulches requires physical removal for disposal in a landfill or incineration. Biodegradable plastic mulches that could be tilled into the soil at the end of a growing season represent an attractive alternative to conventional plastic mulches. In this study, three commercially available mulches labeled as "biodegradable" and one experimental, potentially biodegradable mulch were used during a tomato growing season, and then buried in field soil at three locations for approximately 6 months, as would occur typically in an agricultural setting. Degradation after 6 months in soil was minimal for all but the cellulosic mulch. After removal of mulches from soil, fungi were isolated from the mulch surfaces and tested for their ability to colonize and degrade the same mulches in pure culture. The majority of culturable soil fungi that colonized biodegradable mulches were within the family Trichocomaceae (which includes beneficial, pathogenic, and mycotoxigenic species of Aspergillus and Penicillium). These isolates were phylogenetically similar to fungi previously reported to degrade both conventional and biodegradable plastics. Under pure culture conditions, only a subset of fungal isolates achieved detectable mulch degradation. No isolate substantially degraded any mulch. Additionally, DNA was extracted from bulk soil surrounding buried mulches and ribosomal DNA was used to assess the soil microbial community. Soil microbial community structure was significantly affected by geographical location, but not by mulch treatments.

Isolation of native soil microorganisms with potential for breaking down biodegradable plastic mulch films used in agriculture.

Fungi native to agricultural soils that colonized commercially available biodegradable mulch (BDM) films were isolated and assessed for potential to degrade plastics. Typically, when formulations of plastics are known and a source of the feedstock is available, powdered plastic can be suspended in agar-based media and degradation determined by visualization of clearing zones. However, this approach poorly mimics in situ degradation of BDMs. First, BDMs are not dispersed as small particles throughout the soil matrix. Secondly, BDMs are not sold commercially as pure polymers, but rather as films containing additives (e.g. fillers, plasticizers and dyes) that may affect microbial growth. The procedures described herein were used for isolates acquired from soil-buried mulch films. Fungal isolates acquired from excavated BDMs were tested individually for growth on pieces of new, disinfested BDMs laid atop defined medium containing no carbon source except agar. Isolates that grew on BDMs were further tested in liquid medium where BDMs were the sole added carbon source. After approximately ten weeks, fungal colonization and BDM degradation were assessed by scanning electron microscopy. Isolates were identified via analysis of ribosomal RNA gene sequences. This report describes methods for fungal isolation, but bacteria also were isolated using these methods by substituting media appropriate for bacteria. Our methodology should prove useful for studies investigating breakdown of intact plastic films or products for which plastic feedstocks are either unknown or not available. However our approach does not provide a quantitative method for comparing rates of BDM degradation.