Immunologic and vascular biomarkers of mortality in critical COVID-19 in a South African cohort.

Introduction: Biomarkers predicting mortality among critical Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients provide insight into the underlying pathophysiology of fatal disease and assist with triaging of cases in overburdened settings. However, data describing these biomarkers in Sub-Saharan African populations are sparse. Methods: We collected serum samples and corresponding clinical data from 87 patients with critical COVID-19 on day 1 of admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) of a tertiary hospital in Cape Town, South Africa, during the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. A second sample from the same patients was collected on day 7 of ICU admission. Patients were followed up until in-hospital death or hospital discharge. A custom-designed 52 biomarker panel was performed on the Luminex® platform. Data were analyzed for any association between biomarkers and mortality based on pre-determined functional groups, and individual analytes. Results: Of 87 patients, 55 (63.2%) died and 32 (36.8%) survived. We found a dysregulated cytokine response in patients who died, with elevated levels of type-1 and type-2 cytokines, chemokines, and acute phase reactants, as well as reduced levels of regulatory T cell cytokines. Interleukin (IL)-15 and IL-18 were elevated in those who died, and levels reduced over time in those who survived. Procalcitonin (PCT), C-reactive protein, Endothelin-1 and vascular cell adhesion molecule-1 were elevated in those who died. Discussion: These results show the pattern of dysregulation in critical COVID-19 in a Sub-Saharan African cohort. They suggest that fatal COVID-19 involved excessive activation of cytotoxic cells and the NLRP3 (nucleotide-binding domain, leucine-rich-containing family, pyrin domain-containing-3) inflammasome. Furthermore, superinfection and endothelial dysfunction with thrombosis might have contributed to mortality. HIV infection did not affect the outcome. A clinically relevant biosignature including PCT, pH and lymphocyte percentage on differential count, had an 84.8% sensitivity for mortality, and outperformed the Luminex-derived biosignature.

The prevalence of pulmonary hypertension after successful tuberculosis treatment in a community sample of adult patients.

There are an estimated 155 million survivors of tuberculosis (TB). Clinical experience suggests that post tuberculosis lung disease (PTLD) is an important cause of Group 3 pulmonary hypertension (PH). However, TB is not listed as a cause of PH in most guidelines. A cross-sectional, community-based study was conducted in nonhealthcare seeking adults who had successfully completed TB treatment. Subjects underwent questionnaires, spirometry, a 6-min walk distance test (6MWD) and transthoracic echocardiography (TTE). Screen probable PH was defined on TTE as an estimated pulmonary artery peak systolic pressure (PASP) of ≥40 mmHg. One hundred adults (71 males) were enrolled, with a mean age of 42 years (SD 13.8 years) and a median of one TB episode (interquartile range: 1-2). Co-morbidities included hypertension (21%), diabetes (16%), human immunodeficiency virus (10%) and asthma/COPD (5%). Only 25% had no residual symptoms after TB. Probable PH was found in 9%, while 7% had borderline raised PASP values (PASP 35-40 mmHg). An association was found between PH and the number of previous TB episodes, with each additional episode of TB increasing the odds of PH-postTB 2.13-fold (confidence interval [CI]: 1.17-3.88; p = 0.013). All of those found to have PH were smokers or ex-smokers yielding an unadjusted odds ratio for PH-postTB of 3.67 (95% CI: 0.77-17.46). There was no statistical difference in spirometry or 6MWD, between those with and without PH. Neither symptoms nor co-morbidities demonstrated significant association with PH. PH after TB was a common finding in this community-based population. Further research is needed to confirm and determine the significance of these findings.

Clinical characteristics associated with mortality of COVID-19 patients admitted to an intensive care unit of a tertiary hospital in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Over 130 million people have been diagnosed with Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), and more than one million fatalities have been reported worldwide. South Africa is unique in having a quadruple disease burden of type 2 diabetes, hypertension, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and tuberculosis, making COVID-19-related mortality of particular interest in the country. The aim of this study was to investigate the clinical characteristics and associated mortality of COVID-19 patients admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU) in a South African setting. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We performed a prospective observational study of patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection admitted to the ICU of a South African tertiary hospital in Cape Town. The mortality and discharge rates were the primary outcomes. Demographic, clinical and laboratory data were analysed, and multivariable robust Poisson regression model was used to identify risk factors for mortality. Furthermore, Cox proportional hazards regression model was performed to assess the association between time to death and the predictor variables. Factors associated with death (time to death) at p-value < 0.05 were considered statistically significant. Of the 402 patients admitted to the ICU, 250 (62%) died, and another 12 (3%) died in the hospital after being discharged from the ICU. The median age of the study population was 54.1 years (IQR: 46.0-61.6). The mortality rate among those who were intubated was significantly higher at 201/221 (91%). After adjusting for confounding, multivariable robust Poisson regression analysis revealed that age more than 48 years, requiring invasive mechanical ventilation, HIV status, procalcitonin (PCT), Troponin T, Aspartate Aminotransferase (AST), and a low pH on admission all significantly predicted mortality. Three main risk factors predictive of mortality were identified in the analysis using Cox regression Cox proportional hazards regression model. HIV positive status, myalgia, and intubated in the ICU were identified as independent prognostic factors. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, the mortality rate in COVID-19 patients admitted to the ICU was high. Older age, the need for invasive mechanical ventilation, HIV status, and metabolic acidosis were found to be significant predictors of mortality in patients admitted to the ICU.

Haematological predictors of poor outcome among COVID-19 patients admitted to an intensive care unit of a tertiary hospital in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Studies from Asia, Europe and the USA indicate that widely available haematological parameters could be used to determine the clinical severity of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and predict management outcome. There is limited data from Africa on their usefulness in patients admitted to Intensive Care Units (ICUs). We performed an evaluation of baseline haematological parameters as prognostic biomarkers in ICU COVID-19 patients. METHODS: Demographic, clinical and laboratory data were collected prospectively on patients with confirmed COVID-19, admitted to the adult ICU in a tertiary hospital in Cape Town, South Africa, between March 2020 and February 2021. Robust Poisson regression methods and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to explore the association of haematological parameters with COVID-19 severity and mortality. RESULTS: A total of 490 patients (median age 54.1 years) were included, of whom 237 (48%) were female. The median duration of ICU stay was 6 days and 309/490 (63%) patients died. Raised neutrophil count and neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR) were associated with worse outcome. Independent risk factors associated with mortality were age (ARR 1.01, 95%CI 1.0-1.02; p = 0.002); female sex (ARR 1.23, 95%CI 1.05-1.42; p = 0.008) and D-dimer levels (ARR 1.01, 95%CI 1.002-1.03; p = 0.016). CONCLUSIONS: Our study showed that raised neutrophil count, NLR and D-dimer at the time of ICU admission were associated with higher mortality. Contrary to what has previously been reported, our study revealed females admitted to the ICU had a higher risk of mortality.

Prognostic value of biochemical parameters among severe COVID-19 patients admitted to an intensive care unit of a tertiary hospital in South Africa.

Background: Data on biochemical markers and their association with mortality rates in patients with severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) admitted to intensive care units (ICUs) in sub-Saharan Africa are scarce. An evaluation of baseline routine biochemical parameters was performed in COVID-19 patients admitted to the ICU, in order to identify prognostic biomarkers. Methods: Demographic, clinical, and laboratory data were collected prospectively from patients with PCR-confirmed COVID-19 admitted to the adult ICU of a tertiary hospital in Cape Town, South Africa, between October 2020 and February 2021. Robust Poisson regression methods and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve were used to explore the association of biochemical parameters with severity and mortality. Results: A total of 82 patients (median age 53.8 years, interquartile range 46.4-59.7 years) were enrolled, of whom 55 (67%) were female and 27 (33%) were male. The median duration of ICU stay was 10 days (interquartile range 5-14 days); 54/82 patients died (66% case fatality rate). Baseline lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) (adjusted relative risk 1.002, 95% confidence interval 1.0004-1.004; P = 0.016) and N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) (adjusted relative risk 1.0004, 95% confidence interval 1.0001-1.0007; P = 0.014) were both found to be independent risk factors of a poor prognosis, with optimal cut-off values of 449.5 U/l (sensitivity 100%, specificity 43%) and 551 pg/ml (sensitivity 49%, specificity 86%), respectively. Conclusions: LDH and NT-proBNP appear to be promising predictors of a poor prognosis in COVID-19 patients in the ICU. Studies with a larger sample size are required to confirm the validity of this combination of biomarkers.

Impact of nutritional supplementation on immune response, body mass index and bioelectrical impedance in HIV-positive patients starting antiretroviral therapy.

BACKGROUND: Challenges to HIV care in resource limited settings (RLS) include malnutrition. Limited evidence supports the benefit of nutritional supplementation when starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) in RLS. METHODS: Randomized controlled pilot study. HIV-positive ART-naive adults with self-reported weight loss were randomized to receive ART plus FutureLife porridge nutritional supplement (NS) (388 kcal/day) or ART alone (Controls) for 6 months. Patients returned for monthly assessments and blood was drawn at enrolment and 6 months on ART. Differences in body composition, biochemical and laboratory parameters were estimated at 6 months on treatment. RESULTS: Of the 36 randomized patients, 26 completed the 6 month follow-up (11 NS vs 15 Controls). At enrolment, groups were similar in terms of age, gender, body mass index (BMI) and bioelectrical impedance. NS patients had a lower median CD4 count (60 cells/mm3 [IQR 12-105 vs. 107 cells/mm3 [IQR 63-165]; p = 0.149) and hemoglobin (10.3 g/dL [IQR 9.0-11.3] vs. 13.1 g/dL [IQR 11.1-14.7]; p = 0.001). CONCLUSION: Preliminary results are encouraging and suggest that NS taken concurrently with ART can promote weight gain, improve immune response and improve physical activity in HIV-positive patients that present at ART initiation with weight loss.