Reconciling multiple data sources to improve accuracy of large-scale prediction of forest disease incidence.

Ecological spatial data often come from multiple sources, varying in extent and accuracy. We describe a general approach to reconciling such data sets through the use of the Bayesian hierarchical framework. This approach provides a way for the data sets to borrow strength from one another while allowing for inference on the underlying ecological process. We apply this approach to study the incidence of eastern spruce dwarf mistletoe (Arceuthobium pusillum) in Minnesota black spruce (Picea mariana). A Minnesota Department of Natural Resources operational inventory of black spruce stands in northern Minnesota found mistletoe in 11% of surveyed stands, while a small, specific-pest survey found mistletoe in 56% of the surveyed stands. We reconcile these two surveys within a Bayesian hierarchical framework and predict that 35-59% of black spruce stands in northern Minnesota are infested with dwarf mistletoe.

Ozone concentrations in the Central Wasatch Mountains of Utah.

In the Salt Lake Valley, a June through August SUM60 value (sum of hourly average ozone concentrations > or =60 parts per billion by volume [ppbv]) of 25,000 ppbv-hr was exceeded in 9 yr between 1978 and 1998. Ozone concentrations in the nearby Central Wasatch Mountains were monitored to determine the potential for vegetation injury. The SUM60 value of 19,000 ppbv-hr in these mountains and peak hourly concentrations >100 ppbv suggests that ozone-sensitive species may be injured. Ozone concentrations in the mountains were greatest during periods of strong upslope winds from the Salt Lake Valley. Both SUM60 values and hourly average concentrations in the Central Wasatch Mountains were strongly correlated with those in the Salt Lake Valley, suggesting that data from valley stations could be used to estimate ozone in the mountains.