Genetically based demographic reconstructions require careful consideration of generation time.

Bakker et al. use Robinson et al.'s reconstruction of three species of vulture to illustrate how incorrect generation time estimates can yield inaccurate results, underscoring the importance of generation time specification for genetically based reconstructions, especially for comparisons and species of conservation concern.

Foraging behavior, contaminant exposure risk, and the stress response in wild California condors (Gymnogyps californianus).

Wild California condors (Gymnogyps californianus) are frequently exposed to lead via lead-based ammunition ingestion, and recent studies indicate significant exposure to organochlorines (e.g. dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (DDE) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs)) for condors feeding on beach-cast marine mammals. We investigated the influence of contaminant exposure on condor glucocorticoid response through comparisons between wild and captive populations and identification of modifiers of glucocorticoid release in wild condors. We assessed the glucocorticoid response to routine trapping and handling events through measurement of plasma corticosterone and urate glucocorticoid metabolites (GCM). Comparison of peak urate GCM levels showed wild condors exhibited higher responses to handling-associated stressors (2300 ± 1400 ng/g dry wt, average ± SD, n = 27) than captive condors (910 ± 490 ng/g dry wt., n = 6, U = 28, p = 0.003). Multiple linear regression models and an information theoretic approach (AICc) identified several extrinsic variables (e.g., time captive in flight pen before sample collection) that were negatively associated with plasma corticosterone and urate GCM levels in wild condors, which explained ~25% of glucocorticoid variation. When accounting for these extrinsic variables we found that behavioral variables associated with increased lead and organochlorine exposure risk were positively associated with GCM levels, explaining an additional 15% of glucocorticoid variation among wild condors. Days absent from management area, a variable associated with reduced survival attributed to increased lead exposure risk, had a positive influence on plasma corticosterone levels (ß = 53 ± 20 SE) and peak urate GCM levels (ß = 1090 ± 586 SE). Years observed feeding on marine mammals, a variable positively associated with DDE and PCB exposure, positively influenced peak urate GCM (ß = 1100 ± 520 SE) and the magnitude of GCM response (peak GCM - 1st urate GCM) (ß = 1050 ± 500 SE). Our findings suggest that individual propensities for contaminant-associated foraging behaviors predict higher stress-induced glucocorticoid levels in wild condors, and that accounting for variables associated with trapping and handling is essential for assessing the impact of environmental stressors such as contaminants on the condor stress response. As an abnormal glucocorticoid response to stress is associated with reduced reproduction and survival in vertebrates, this work indicates the need for further investigations into the physiological impacts of sub-lethal contaminant exposures in scavenging species worldwide.

Effects of Lead Exposure, Flock Behavior, and Management Actions on the Survival of California Condors (Gymnogyps californianus).

Translocation is an increasingly important tool for managing endangered species, but factors influencing the survival of translocated individuals are not well understood. Here we examine intrinsic and extrinsic drivers of survival for critically endangered California condors (Gymnogyps californianus) whose wild population recovery is reliant upon releases of captively bred stock. We used known fate models and information-theoretic methods to compare the ability of hypothesized covariates, most of which serve as proxies for lead exposure risk, to predict survival rates of condors in California. Our best supported model included the following predictors of survival: age of the recovery program, precipitation, proportion of days observed feeding on proffered carcasses, maximum blood lead concentration over the preceding 18 months, and time since release. We found that as flocks have increased in size and age, condors are increasingly likely to range more widely and less likely to be observed feeding on proffered food, and these "wilder" behaviors were associated with lower survival. After accounting for these behaviors, we found a positive survival trend, which we attribute to ongoing improvements in management. Our findings illustrate that the survival of translocated animals, such as highly social California condors, is influenced by behaviors that change through time.

Terrestrial Scavenging of Marine Mammals: Cross-Ecosystem Contaminant Transfer and Potential Risks to Endangered California Condors (Gymnogyps californianus).

The critically endangered California condor (Gymnogyps californianus) has relied intermittently on dead-stranded marine mammals since the Pleistocene, and this food source is considered important for their current recovery. However, contemporary marine mammals contain persistent organic pollutants that could threaten condor health. We used stable carbon and nitrogen isotope, contaminant, and behavioral data in coastal versus noncoastal condors to quantify contaminant transfer from marine mammals and created simulation models to predict the risk of reproductive impairment for condors from exposure to DDE (p,p'-DDE), a major metabolite of the chlorinated pesticide DDT. Coastal condors had higher whole blood isotope values and mean concentrations of contaminants associated with marine mammals, including mercury (whole blood), sum chlorinated pesticides (comprised of ∼95% DDE) (plasma), sum polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) (plasma), and sum polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) (plasma), 12-100-fold greater than those of noncoastal condors. The mean plasma DDE concentration for coastal condors was 500 ± 670 (standard deviation) (n = 22) versus 24 ± 24 (standard deviation) (n = 8) ng/g of wet weight for noncoastal condors, and simulations predicted ∼40% of breeding-age coastal condors have DDE levels associated with eggshell thinning in other avian species. Our analyses demonstrate potentially harmful levels of marine contaminant transfer to California condors, which could hinder the recovery of this terrestrial species.

The Use of Surrogate Data in Demographic Population Viability Analysis: A Case Study of California Sea Lions.

Reliable data necessary to parameterize population models are seldom available for imperiled species. As an alternative, data from populations of the same species or from ecologically similar species have been used to construct models. In this study, we evaluated the use of demographic data collected at one California sea lion colony (Los Islotes) to predict the population dynamics of the same species from two other colonies (San Jorge and Granito) in the Gulf of California, Mexico, for which demographic data are lacking. To do so, we developed a stochastic demographic age-structured matrix model and conducted a population viability analysis for each colony. For the Los Islotes colony we used site-specific pup, juvenile, and adult survival probabilities, as well as birth rates for older females. For the other colonies, we used site-specific pup and juvenile survival probabilities, but used surrogate data from Los Islotes for adult survival probabilities and birth rates. We assessed these models by comparing simulated retrospective population trajectories to observed population trends based on count data. The projected population trajectories approximated the observed trends when surrogate data were used for one colony but failed to match for a second colony. Our results indicate that species-specific and even region-specific surrogate data may lead to erroneous conservation decisions. These results highlight the importance of using population-specific demographic data in assessing extinction risk. When vital rates are not available and immediate management actions must be taken, in particular for imperiled species, we recommend the use of surrogate data only when the populations appear to have similar population trends.

What is the future of conservation?

In recent years, some conservation biologists and conservation organizations have sought to refocus the field of conservation biology by de-emphasizing the goal of protecting nature for its own sake in favor of protecting the environment for its benefits to humans. This 'new conservation science' (NCS) has inspired debate among academics and conservationists and motivated fundamental changes in the world's largest conservation groups. Despite claims that NCS approaches are supported by biological and social science, NCS has limited support from either. Rather, the shift in motivations and goals associated with NCS appear to arise largely from a belief system holding that the needs and wants of humans should be prioritized over any intrinsic or inherent rights and values of nature.

Using population viability criteria to assess strategies to minimize disease threats for an endangered carnivore.

Outbreaks of infectious disease represent serious threats to the viability of many vertebrate populations, but few studies have included quantitative evaluations of alternative approaches to the management of disease. The most prevalent management approach is monitoring for and rapid response to an epizootic. An alternative is vaccination of a subset of the free-living population (i.e., a "vaccinated core") such that some individuals are partially or fully immune in the event of an epizootic. We developed a simulation model describing epizootic dynamics, which we then embedded in a demographic simulation to assess these alternative approaches to managing rabies epizootics in the island fox (Urocyon littoralis), a species composed of only 6 small populations on the California Channel Islands. Although the monitor and respond approach was superior to the vaccinated-core approach for some transmission models and parameter values, this type of reactive management did not protect the population from rabies under many disease-transmission assumptions. In contrast, a logistically feasible program of prophylactic vaccination for part of the wild population yielded low extinction probabilities across all likely disease-transmission scenarios, even with recurrent disease introductions. Our use of a single metric of successful management-probability of extreme endangerment (i.e., quasi extinction)-to compare very different management approaches allowed an objective assessment of alternative strategies for controlling the threats posed by infectious disease outbreaks.