Case growth analysis to inform local response to COVID-19 epidemic in a diverse U.S community.

Early detection of new outbreak waves is critical for effective and sustained response to the COVID-19 pandemic. We conducted a growth rate analysis using local community and inpatient records from seven hospital systems to characterize distinct phases in SARS-CoV-2 outbreak waves in the Greater Houston area. We determined the transition times from rapid spread of infection in the community to surge in the number of inpatients in local hospitals. We identified 193,237 residents who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 via molecular testing from April 8, 2020 to June 30, 2021, and 30,031 residents admitted within local healthcare institutions with a positive SARS-CoV-2 test, including emergency cases. We detected two distinct COVID-19 waves: May 12, 2020-September 6, 2020 and September 27, 2020-May 15, 2021; each encompassed four growth phases: lagging, exponential/rapid growth, deceleration, and stationary/linear. Our findings showed that, during early stages of the pandemic, the surge in the number of daily cases in the community preceded that of inpatients admitted to local hospitals by 12-36 days. Rapid decline in hospitalized cases was an early indicator of transition to deceleration in the community. Our real-time analysis informed local pandemic response in one of the largest U.S. metropolitan areas, providing an operationalized framework to support robust real-world surveillance for outbreak preparedness.

COVID-19 Vaccine Uptake among US Adults According to Standard Occupational Groups.

This cross-sectional ecological study examined the relationship between neighborhood-level standard occupational groups in the USA and COVID-19 vaccine uptake using 774 census tract data, each consisting of approximately 1600 housing units. The neighborhood-level COVID-19 vaccination uptake data were retrieved from Harris County Public Health, Harris County, Texas. The standard occupational group data were from the US Census Bureau. We calculated the incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for vaccine uptake using bivariate and multivariable Poisson regression models. In the adjusted models, we found that the healthcare practitioner/technician (IRR: 1.008; 95% CI: 1.003−1.014; p = 0.001), business/management/legal (IRR: 1.011; 95% CI: 1.008−1.013; p < 0.001), computer/engineering/life/physical/social science (IRR: 1.018; 95% CI: 1.013−1.023; p < 0.001), and arts/design/entertainment/sports/media (IRR: 1.031; 95% CI: 1.018−1.044; p < 0.001) occupational groups were more likely to have received the full regimen of a COVID-19 vaccine. On the contrary, the building/installation/maintenance/repair (IRR: 0.991; 95% CI: 0.987−0.995; p < 0.001), construction/extraction/production (IRR: 0.991; 95% CI: 0.988−0.995; p < 0.001), transportation/material moving (IRR: 0.992; 95% CI: 0.987−0.997; p = 0.002), food preparation/serving related (IRR: 0.995; 95% CI: 0.990−0.999; p = 0.023), and personal care/services (IRR: 0.991; 95% CI: 0.985−0.998; p = 0.017) groups were less likely to have received the complete dose of a COVID-19 vaccine. White-collar workers were more likely to be vaccinated than blue-collar workers. We adjusted for age, sex, and race/ethnicity in the multivariable analysis. The low vaccine uptake among certain occupational groups remains a barrier to pandemic control. Engaging labor-centered stakeholders in the development of vaccination interventions may increase uptake.

Trends and Correlates of Breakthrough Infections With SARS-CoV-2.

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) delta variant has been hypothesized to decrease the efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines. Factors associated with infections with SARS-CoV-2 after vaccination are unknown. In this observational cohort study, we examined two groups in Harris County, Texas: (1) individuals with positive Nucleic Acid Amplification test between 12/14/2020 and 9/30/2021 and (2) the subset of individuals fully vaccinated in the same time period. Infected individuals were classified as a breakthrough if their infection occurred 14 days after their vaccination had been completed. Among fully vaccinated individuals, demographic and vaccine factors associated with breakthrough infections were assessed. Of 146,731 positive SARS-CoV-2 tests, 7.5% were breakthrough infections. Correlates of breakthrough infection included young adult age, female, White race, and receiving the Janssen vaccine, after adjustments including the amount of community spread at the time of infection. Vaccines remained effective in decreasing the probability of testing positive for SARS-CoV-2. The data indicate that increased vaccine booster uptake would help decrease new infections.

Individual Cryptic Scaling Relationships and the Evolution of Animal Form.

Artificial selection offers a powerful tool for the exploration of how selection and development shape the evolution of morphological scaling relationships. An emerging approach models the expression and evolution of morphological scaling relationships as a function of variation among individuals in the developmental mechanisms that regulate trait growth. These models posit the existence of genotype-specific morphological scaling relationships that are unseen or "cryptic." Within-population allelic variation at growth-regulating loci determines how these individual cryptic scaling relationships are distributed, and exposure to environmental factors that affect growth determines the size phenotype expressed by each individual on their cryptic, genotype-specific scaling relationship. These models reveal that evolution of the intercept and slope of the population-level static allometry is determined, often in counterintuitive ways, largely by the shape of the distribution of these underlying individual-level scaling relationships. Here we review this modeling framework and present the wing-body size individual cryptic scaling relationships from a population of Drosophila melanogaster. To determine how these models might inform interpretation of published work on scaling relationship evolution, we review studies where artificial selection was applied to alter the parameters of population-level static allometries. Finally, motivated by our review, we outline areas in need of empirical work and describe a research program to address these topics; the approach includes describing the distribution of individual cryptic scaling relationships across populations and environments, empirical testing of the model's predictions, and determining the effects of environmental heterogeneity on realized trait distributions and how this affects allometry evolution.

Influenza A (H3) Outbreak at a Hurricane Harvey Megashelter in Harris County, Texas: Successes and Challenges in Disease Identification and Control Measure Implementation.

ABSTRACTWhen Hurricane Harvey landed along the Texas coast on August 25, 2017, it caused massive flooding and damage and displaced tens of thousands of residents of Harris County, Texas. Between August 29 and September 23, Harris County, along with community partners, operated a megashelter at NRG Center, which housed 3365 residents at its peak. Harris County Public Health conducted comprehensive public health surveillance and response at NRG, which comprised disease identification through daily medical record reviews, nightly "cot-to-cot" resident health surveys, and epidemiological consultations; messaging and communications; and implementation of control measures including stringent isolation and hygiene practices, vaccinations, and treatment. Despite the lengthy operation at the densely populated shelter, an early seasonal influenza A (H3) outbreak of 20 cases was quickly identified and confined. Influenza outbreaks in large evacuation shelters after a disaster pose a significant threat to populations already experiencing severe stressors. A holistic surveillance and response model, which consists of coordinated partnerships with onsite agencies, in-time epidemiological consultations, predesigned survey tools, trained staff, enhanced isolation and hygiene practices, and sufficient vaccines, is essential for effective disease identification and control. The lessons learned and successes achieved from this outbreak may serve for future disaster response settings. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2019;13:97-101).

Comparison of crowd-sourced, electronic health records based, and traditional health-care based influenza-tracking systems at multiple spatial resolutions in the United States of America.

BACKGROUND: Influenza causes an estimated 3000 to 50,000 deaths per year in the United States of America (US). Timely and representative data can help local, state, and national public health officials monitor and respond to outbreaks of seasonal influenza. Data from cloud-based electronic health records (EHR) and crowd-sourced influenza surveillance systems have the potential to provide complementary, near real-time estimates of influenza activity. The objectives of this paper are to compare two novel influenza-tracking systems with three traditional healthcare-based influenza surveillance systems at four spatial resolutions: national, regional, state, and city, and to determine the minimum number of participants in these systems required to produce influenza activity estimates that resemble the historical trends recorded by traditional surveillance systems. METHODS: We compared influenza activity estimates from five influenza surveillance systems: 1) patient visits for influenza-like illness (ILI) from the US Outpatient ILI Surveillance Network (ILINet), 2) virologic data from World Health Organization (WHO) Collaborating and National Respiratory and Enteric Virus Surveillance System (NREVSS) Laboratories, 3) Emergency Department (ED) syndromic surveillance from Boston, Massachusetts, 4) patient visits for ILI from EHR, and 5) reports of ILI from the crowd-sourced system, Flu Near You (FNY), by calculating correlations between these systems across four influenza seasons, 2012-16, at four different spatial resolutions in the US. For the crowd-sourced system, we also used a bootstrapping statistical approach to estimate the minimum number of reports necessary to produce a meaningful signal at a given spatial resolution. RESULTS: In general, as the spatial resolution increased, correlation values between all influenza surveillance systems decreased. Influenza-like Illness rates in geographic areas with more than 250 crowd-sourced participants or with more than 20,000 visit counts for EHR tracked government-lead estimates of influenza activity. CONCLUSIONS: With a sufficient number of reports, data from novel influenza surveillance systems can complement traditional healthcare-based systems at multiple spatial resolutions.

Investigating Informatics Activity, Control, and Training Needs in Large, Medium, and Small Health Departments.

INTRODUCTION: A recent National Association of City & County Health Officials survey shed light on informatics workforce development needs. Local health departments (LHDs) of various jurisdictional sizes and control over informatics may differ on training needs and activity. Understanding the precise nature of this variation will allow stakeholders to appropriately develop workforce development tools to advance the field. OBJECTIVE: To understand the informatics training needs for LHDs of different jurisdictional sizes. METHODS: Survey responses were analyzed by comparing training needs and LHD population size. RESULTS: Larger health departments consistently reported having greater informatics-related capacity and informatics-related training needs. Quantitative data analysis was identified as a primary need for large LHDs. In addition, LHDs that report higher control of informatics/information technology were able to engage in more informatics activities. CONCLUSION: Smaller LHDs need additional resources to improve informatics-related capacity and engagement with the field.