Decline in seasonal predictability potentially destabilized Classic Maya societies.

Classic Maya populations living in peri-urban states were highly dependent on seasonally distributed rainfall for reliable surplus crop yields. Despite intense study of the potential impact of decadal to centennial-scale climatic changes on the demise of Classic Maya sociopolitical institutions (750-950 CE), its direct importance remains debated. We provide a detailed analysis of a precisely dated speleothem record from Yok Balum cave, Belize, that reflects local hydroclimatic changes at seasonal scale over the past 1600 years. We find that the initial disintegration of Maya sociopolitical institutions and population decline occurred in the context of a pronounced decrease in the predictability of seasonal rainfall and severe drought between 700 and 800 CE. The failure of Classic Maya societies to successfully adapt to volatile seasonal rainfall dynamics likely contributed to gradual but widespread processes of sociopolitical disintegration. We propose that the complex abandonment of Classic Maya population centres was not solely driven by protracted drought but also aggravated by year-to-year decreases in rainfall predictability, potentially caused by a regional reduction in coherent Intertropical Convergence Zone-driven rainfall.

A spatial total nitrogen budget for Great Britain.

Understanding nutrient budgets makes it possible to predict where and by how much nutrients are accumulating in the environment. Previous studies have considered this problem for nitrogen (N) but have limited themselves to reactive N species (i.e. excluding N2) or have considered total N (including N2) but have been limited to regional or national scales. In this study the spatially-distributed total nitrogen (N) budget of Great Britain (GB) was estimated at a 1 km2 grid scale. The inputs of N considered were: biological N fixation; atmospheric deposition; food and feed transfer; and inorganic synthetic fertilizer. The outputs of N considered were: atmospheric emission; terrestrial denitrification; fluvial loss from the soil; gaseous emissions from sewage treatment plants; direct sewage flux loss; and groundwater loss. All pathways were considered over a number of years. This study constructed a spatially-differentiated total N budget for GB, which not only includes all major N pathways but also distributes the N budget to various land uses with a 1 km2 spatial resolution. The results showed that both sink and source areas exist across GB, although the majority of 1 km2 grid squares were identified as sources. Based on a mass balance model calculated for 2015, total N exhibited a net flux of a source of -1045 (±244) ktonnes N/year. The spatial N budget across GB ranged from -21 (±3) tonnes N/year to 34 (±5) tonnes N/year, where 66% of grid squares were source areas and 34% were sink areas. Urban and arable land use were predominantly source areas: 97% of total urban land use and 98.5% of total arable land use. 65% of grassland was a sink area. The total amount of N released to the environment by human activity in 2015 was -16.65 kg N/ca/yr.

Intertropical convergence zone variability in the Neotropics during the Common Era.

Large changes in hydroclimate in the Neotropics implied by proxy evidence, such as during the Little Ice Age, have been attributed to meridional shifts of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), although alternative modes of ITCZ variability have also been suggested. Here, we use seasonally resolved stalagmite rainfall proxy data from the modern northern limit of the ITCZ in southern Belize, combined with records from across the Neotropics and subtropics, to fingerprint ITCZ variability during the Common Era. Our data are consistent with models that suggest ITCZ expansion and weakening during globally cold climate intervals and contraction and intensification during global warmth. As a result, regions currently in the margins of the ITCZ in both hemispheres are likely transitioning to more arid and highly variable conditions, aggravating current trends of increased social unrest and mass migration.

Global analysis reveals climatic controls on the oxygen isotope composition of cave drip water.

The oxygen isotope composition of speleothems is a widely used proxy for past climate change. Robust use of this proxy depends on understanding the relationship between precipitation and cave drip water δ18O. Here, we present the first global analysis, based on data from 163 drip sites, from 39 caves on five continents, showing that drip water δ18O is most similar to the amount-weighted precipitation δ18O where mean annual temperature (MAT) is < 10 °C. By contrast, for seasonal climates with MAT > 10 °C and < 16 °C, drip water δ18O records the recharge-weighted δ18O. This implies that the δ18O of speleothems (formed in near isotopic equilibrium) are most likely to directly reflect meteoric precipitation in cool climates only. In warmer and drier environments, speleothems will have a seasonal bias toward the precipitation δ18O of recharge periods and, in some cases, the extent of evaporative fractionation of stored karst water.

Persistent northward North Atlantic tropical cyclone track migration over the past five centuries.

Accurately predicting future tropical cyclone risk requires understanding the fundamental controls on tropical cyclone dynamics. Here we present an annually-resolved 450-year reconstruction of western Caribbean tropical cyclone activity developed using a new coupled carbon and oxygen isotope ratio technique in an exceptionally well-dated stalagmite from Belize. Western Caribbean tropical cyclone activity peaked at 1650 A.D., coincident with maximum Little Ice Age cooling, and decreased gradually until the end of the record in 1983. Considered with other reconstructions, the new record suggests that the mean track of Cape Verde tropical cyclones shifted gradually north-eastward from the western Caribbean toward the North American east coast over the last 450 years. Since ~1870 A.D., these shifts were largely driven by anthropogenic greenhouse gas and sulphate aerosol emissions. Our results strongly suggest that future emission scenarios will result in more frequent tropical cyclone impacts on the financial and population centres of the northeastern United States.

Feasibility and Preliminary Efficacy of a Novel RDoC-Based Treatment Program for Adolescent Depression: "Training for Awareness Resilience and Action" (TARA)-A Pilot Study.

BACKGROUND: The novel group treatment program Training for Awareness, Resilience, and Action (TARA) was developed to target specific mechanisms based on neuroscience findings in adolescent depression and framed within the National Institute of Mental Health Research Domain Criteria. TARA contains training of autonomic and emotional self-regulation, interoceptive awareness, relational skills, and value-based committed action. METHODS: We performed a single-arm trial to test the feasibility and preliminary efficacy of TARA in reducing depression and anxiety levels and assessed whether the specific targeted domains of function reflected the hypothesized symptom change. Twenty-six adolescents (14-18 years old, 7 males and 19 females) participated in the 12-week group program. Assessment was performed before (T0), immediately after (T1), and 3 months after the end of TARA (T2). RESULTS: Significant improvement was seen in depression symptoms (Reynolds Adolescent Depression Scale Second Edition) between T0-T1 (t-value = -3.56, p = 0.002, CI = -6.64, -1.77) and T0-T2 (t-value = -4.17, p < 0.001, CI = -11.20, -3.75) and anxiety symptoms (Multidimensional Anxiety Scale for Children) between T0-T1 (t-value = -2.26, p = 0.033, CI = -4.61, -0.21) and T0-T2 (t-value = -3.06, p = 0.006, 95% confidence interval = -9.02, -1.73). Significant improvements in psychological flexibility, sleep, and mindfulness skills were also found between T0 and T2. LIMITATIONS: The sample size was small without a control condition. The pilot design did not allow for testing the hypothesized brain changes and effect of TARA on relevant systemic biomarkers. CONCLUSION: TARA is feasible in a sample of clinically depressed and/or anxious adolescents and preliminary efficacy was demonstrated by reduced depression and anxiety symptoms. The specific symptom and behavioral outcomes corresponded well with the hypothesized mechanisms of change.

Mobile App-Delivered Cognitive Behavioral Therapy for Insomnia: Feasibility and Initial Efficacy Among Veterans With Cannabis Use Disorders.

BACKGROUND: Cannabis is the most frequently used illicit substance in the United States resulting in high rates of cannabis use disorders. Current treatments for cannabis use are often met with high rates of lapse/relapse, tied to (1) behavioral health factors that impact cannabis use such as poor sleep, and (2) access, stigma, supply, and cost of receiving a substance use intervention. OBJECTIVE: This pilot study examined the feasibility, usability, and changes in cannabis use and sleep difficulties following mobile phone-delivered Cognitive Behavioral Therapy for Insomnia (CBT-I) in the context of a cannabis cessation attempt. METHODS: Four male veterans with DSM-5 cannabis use disorder and sleep problems were randomized to receive a 2-week intervention: CBT-I Coach mobile app (n=2) or a placebo control (mood-tracking app) (n=2). Cannabis and sleep measures were assessed pre- and post-treatment. Participants also reported use and helpfulness of each app. Changes in sleep and cannabis use were evaluated for each participant individually. RESULTS: Both participants receiving CBT-I used the app daily over 2 weeks and found the app user-friendly, helpful, and would use it in the future. In addition, they reported decreased cannabis use and improved sleep efficiency; one also reported increased sleep quality. In contrast, one participant in the control group dropped out of the study, and the other used the app minimally and reported increased sleep quality but also increased cannabis use. The mood app was rated as not helpful, and there was low likelihood of future participation. CONCLUSIONS: This pilot study examined the feasibility and initial patient acceptance of mobile phone delivery of CBT-I for cannabis dependence. Positive ratings of the app and preliminary reports of reductions in cannabis use and improvements in sleep are both encouraging and support additional evaluation of this intervention.

Narrative review of the safety and efficacy of marijuana for the treatment of commonly state-approved medical and psychiatric disorders.

The present investigation aimed to provide an objective narrative review of the existing literature pertaining to the benefits and harms of marijuana use for the treatment of the most common medical and psychological conditions for which it has been allowed at the state level. Common medical conditions for which marijuana is allowed (i.e., those conditions shared by at least 80 percent of medical marijuana states) were identified as: Alzheimer's disease, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, cachexia/wasting syndrome, cancer, Crohn's disease, epilepsy and seizures, glaucoma, hepatitis C virus, human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome, multiple sclerosis and muscle spasticity, severe and chronic pain, and severe nausea. Post-traumatic stress disorder was also included in the review, as it is the sole psychological disorder for which medical marijuana has been allowed. Studies for this narrative review were included based on a literature search in PsycINFO, MEDLINE, and Google Scholar. Findings indicate that, for the majority of these conditions, there is insufficient evidence to support the recommendation of medical marijuana at this time. A significant amount of rigorous research is needed to definitively ascertain the potential implications of marijuana for these conditions. It is important for such work to not only examine the effects of smoked marijuana preparations, but also to compare its safety, tolerability, and efficacy in relation to existing pharmacological treatments.