Emergency Department Referral of Patients With Chest Pain for Noninvasive Cardiac Testing and 2-Year Clinical Outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Noninvasive cardiac testing (NICT) has been associated with decreased long-term risks of major adverse cardiac events (MACEs) among emergency department patients at high coronary risk. It is unclear whether this association extends to patients without evidence of myocardial injury on initial ECG and cardiac troponin testing. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted of patients presenting with chest pain between 2013 and 2019 to 21 emergency departments within an integrated health care system in Northern California, excluding patients with ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction or myocardial injury by serum troponin testing. To account for confounding by indication, we grouped patient encounters by the NICT referral rate of the initially assigned emergency physician relative to local peers within discrete time periods. The primary outcome was MACE within 2 years. Secondary outcomes were coronary revascularization and MACE, inclusive of all-cause mortality. Associations between the NICT referral group (low, intermediate, or high) and outcomes were assessed using risk-adjusted proportional hazards methods with censoring for competing events. RESULTS: Among 144 577 eligible patient encounters, the median age was 58 years (interquartile range, 48-68) and 57% were female. Thirty-day NICT referral was 13.0%, 19.9%, and 27.8% in low, intermediate, and high NICT referral groups, respectively, with a good balance of baseline covariates between groups. Compared with the low NICT referral group, there was no significant decrease in the adjusted hazard ratio of MACE within the intermediate (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.08 [95% CI, 1.02-1.14]) or high (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.05 [95% CI, 0.99-1.11]) NICT referral groups. Results were similar for MACE, inclusive of all-cause mortality, and coronary revascularization, as well as subgroup analyses stratified by estimated risk (history, electrocardiogram, age, risk factors, troponin [HEART] score: percent classified as low risk, 48.2%; moderate risk, 49.2%; and high risk, 2.7%). CONCLUSIONS: Increases in NICT referrals were not associated with changes in the hazard of MACE within 2 years following emergency department visits for chest pain without evidence of acute myocardial injury. These findings further highlight the need for evidence-based guidance regarding the appropriate use of NICT in this population.

An all-inclusive model for predicting invasive bacterial infection in febrile infants age 7-60 days.

BACKGROUND: Invasive bacterial infections (IBIs) in febrile infants are rare but potentially devastating. We aimed to derive and validate a predictive model for IBI among febrile infants age 7-60 days. METHODS: Data were abstracted retrospectively from electronic records of 37 emergency departments (EDs) for infants with a measured temperature >=100.4 F who underwent an ED evaluation with blood and urine cultures. Models to predict IBI were developed and validated respectively using a random 80/20 dataset split, including 10-fold cross-validation. We used precision recall curves as the classification metric. RESULTS: Of 4411 eligible infants with a mean age of 37 days, 29% had characteristics that would likely have excluded them from existing risk stratification protocols. There were 196 patients with IBI (4.4%), including 43 (1.0%) with bacterial meningitis. Analytic approaches varied in performance characteristics (precision recall range 0.04-0.29, area under the curve range 0.5-0.84), with the XGBoost model demonstrating the best performance (0.29, 0.84). The five most important variables were serum white blood count, maximum temperature, absolute neutrophil count, absolute band count, and age in days. CONCLUSION: A machine learning model (XGBoost) demonstrated the best performance in predicting a rare outcome among febrile infants, including those excluded from existing algorithms. IMPACT: Several models for the risk stratification of febrile infants have been developed. There is a need for a preferred comprehensive model free from limitations and algorithm exclusions that accurately predicts IBIs. This is the first study to derive an all-inclusive predictive model for febrile infants aged 7-60 days in a community ED sample with IBI as a primary outcome. This machine learning model demonstrates potential for clinical utility in predicting IBI.

CA FIRST (California Febrile Infant Risk Stratification Tool) Algorithm Development in a Learning Health System.

Introduction There is considerable variation in the approach to infants presenting to the emergency department (ED) with fever. The authors' primary aim was to develop a robust set of algorithms using community ED data to inform modifications of broader clinical guidance. Methods The authors report the development of California Febrile Infant Risk Stratification Tool (CA FIRST) using key components of the Roseville Protocol (ROS) and American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) Clinical Practice Guideline (CPG). Expanded guidance was derived using a retrospective analysis of a cohort of 3527 febrile infants aged 7-90 days presenting to any Kaiser Permanente Northern California ED between 2010 and 2019 who underwent a core febrile infant evaluation. Results Melding ROS and AAP CPG algorithms in infants 7-60 days old, CA FIRST Algorithms had comparable performance characteristics to ROS and AAP CPG. CA FIRST enhancements included guidance on febrile infants 61-90 days old, high-risk infants, infants with bronchiolitis, and infants who received immunizations within the prior 48 hours. This retrospective analysis revealed that of 235 febrile infants 22-90 days old with respiratory syncytial virus and 221 who had fever in the 48 hours following vaccination, there were no cases of invasive bacterial infection. Discussion CA FIRST is a set of 13 algorithms providing a thoughtful and flexible approach to the febrile infant while minimizing unnecessary interventions. Conclusions CA FIRST Algorithms empower clinicians to manage most febrile infants. Algorithms are being modified as new data become available, imparting useful and ever-current educational information within a learning health care system.

Automated analysis of unstructured clinical assessments improves emergency department triage performance: A retrospective deep learning analysis.

Objectives: Efficient and accurate emergency department (ED) triage is critical to prioritize the sickest patients and manage department flow. We explored the use of electronic health record data and advanced predictive analytics to improve triage performance. Methods: Using a data set of over 5 million ED encounters of patients 18 years and older across 21 EDs from 2016 to 2020, we derived triage models using deep learning to predict 2 outcomes: hospitalization (primary outcome) and fast-track eligibility (exploratory outcome), defined as ED discharge with <2 resource types used (eg, laboratory or imaging studies) and no critical events (eg, resuscitative medications use or intensive care unit [ICU] admission). We report area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for models using (1) triage variables alone (demographics and vital signs), (2) triage nurse clinical assessment alone (unstructured notes), and (3) triage variables plus clinical assessment for each prediction target. Results: We found 12.7% of patients were hospitalized (n = 673,659) and 37.0% were fast-track eligible (n = 1,966,615). The AUC was lowest for models using triage variables alone: AUC 0.77 (95% CI 0.77-0.78) and 0.70 (95% CI 0.70-0.71) for hospitalization and fast-track eligibility, respectively, and highest for models incorporating clinical assessment with triage variables for both hospitalization and fast-track eligibility: AUC 0.87 (95% CI 0.87-0.87) for both prediction targets. Conclusion: Our findings highlight the potential to use advanced predictive analytics to accurately predict key ED triage outcomes. Predictive accuracy was optimized when clinical assessments were added to models using simple structured variables alone.

Clinical decision support to Optimize Care of patients with Atrial Fibrillation or flutter in the Emergency department: protocol of a stepped-wedge cluster randomized pragmatic trial (O'CAFÉ trial).

BACKGROUND: Management of adults with atrial fibrillation (AF) or atrial flutter in the emergency department (ED) includes rate reduction, cardioversion, and stroke prevention. Different approaches to these components of care may lead to variation in frequency of hospitalization and stroke prevention actions, with significant implications for patient experience, cost of care, and risk of complications. Standardization using evidence-based recommendations could reduce variation in management, preventable hospitalizations, and stroke risk. METHODS: We describe the rationale for our ED-based AF treatment recommendations. We also describe the development of an electronic clinical decision support system (CDSS) to deliver these recommendations to emergency physicians at the point of care. We implemented the CDSS at three pilot sites to assess feasibility and solicit user feedback. We will evaluate the impact of the CDSS on hospitalization and stroke prevention actions using a stepped-wedge cluster randomized pragmatic clinical trial across 13 community EDs in Northern California. DISCUSSION: We hypothesize that the CDSS intervention will reduce hospitalization of adults with isolated AF or atrial flutter presenting to the ED and increase anticoagulation prescription in eligible patients at the time of ED discharge and within 30 days. If our hypotheses are confirmed, the treatment protocol and CDSS could be recommended to other EDs to improve management of adults with AF or atrial flutter. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT05009225 .  Registered on 17 August 2021.

Evaluation of the Emergency Severity Index in US Emergency Departments for the Rate of Mistriage.

Importance: Accurate emergency department (ED) triage is essential to prioritize the most critically ill patients and distribute resources appropriately. The most used triage system in the US is the Emergency Severity Index (ESI). Objectives: To derive and validate an algorithm to assess the rate of mistriage and to identify characteristics associated with mistriage. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study created operational definitions for each ESI level that use ED visit electronic health record data to classify encounters as undertriaged, overtriaged, or correctly triaged. These definitions were applied to a retrospective cohort to assess variation in triage accuracy by facility and patient characteristics in 21 EDs within the Kaiser Permanente Northern California (KPNC) health care system. All ED encounters by patients 18 years and older between January 1, 2016, and December 31, 2020, were assessed for eligibility. Encounters with missing ESI or incomplete ED time variables and patients who left against medical advice or without being seen were excluded. Data were analyzed between January 1, 2021, and November 30, 2022. Exposures: Assigned ESI level. Main Outcomes and Measures: Rate of undertriage and overtriage by assigned ESI level based on a mistriage algorithm and patient and visit characteristics associated with undertriage and overtriage. Results: A total of 5 315 176 ED encounters were included. The mean (SD) patient age was 52 (21) years; 44.3% of patients were men and 55.7% were women. In terms of race and ethnicity, 11.1% of participants were Asian, 15.1% were Black, 21.4% were Hispanic, 44.0% were non-Hispanic White, and 8.5% were of other (includes American Indian or Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian or other Pacific Islander, and multiple races or ethnicities), unknown, or missing race or ethnicity. Mistriage occurred in 1 713 260 encounters (32.2%), of which 176 131 (3.3%) were undertriaged and 1 537 129 (28.9%) were overtriaged. The sensitivity of ESI to identify a patient with high-acuity illness (correctly assigning ESI I or II among patients who had a life-stabilizing intervention) was 65.9%. In adjusted analyses, Black patients had a 4.6% (95% CI, 4.3%-4.9%) greater relative risk of overtriage and an 18.5% (95% CI, 16.9%-20.0%) greater relative risk of undertriage compared with White patients, while Black male patients had a 9.9% (95% CI, 9.8%-10.0%) greater relative risk of overtriage and a 41.0% (95% CI, 40.0%-41.9%) greater relative risk of undertriage compared with White female patients. High relative risk of undertriage was found among patients taking high-risk medications (30.3% [95% CI, 28.3%-32.4%]) and those with a greater comorbidity burden (22.4% [95% CI, 20.1%-24.4%]) and recent intensive care unit utilization (36.7% [95% CI, 30.5%-41.4%]). Conclusions and Relevance: In this retrospective cohort study of over 5 million ED encounters, mistriage with ESI was common. Quality improvement should focus on limiting critical undertriage, optimizing resource allocation by patient need, and promoting equity.

Developing Consensus on Clinical Outcomes for Children with Mild Pneumonia: A Delphi Study.

BACKGROUND: The absence of consensus for outcomes in pediatric antibiotic trials is a major barrier to research harmonization and clinical translation. We sought to develop expert consensus on study outcomes for clinical trials of children with mild community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). METHODS: Applying the Delphi method, a multispecialty expert panel ranked the importance of various components of clinical response and treatment failure outcomes in children with mild CAP for use in research. During Round 1, panelists suggested additional outcomes in open-ended responses that were added to subsequent rounds of consensus building. For Rounds 2 and 3, panelists were provided their own prior responses and summary statistics for each item in the previous round. The consensus was defined by >70% agreement. RESULTS: The expert panel determined that response to and failure of treatment should be addressed at a median of 3 days after initiation. Complete or substantial improvement in fever, work of breathing, dyspnea, tachypnea when afebrile, oral intake, and activity should be included as components of adequate clinical response outcomes. Clinical signs and symptoms including persistent or worsening fever, work of breathing, and reduced oral intake should be included in treatment failure outcomes. Interventions including receipt of parenteral fluids, supplemental oxygen, need for high-flow nasal cannula oxygen therapy, and change in prescription of antibiotics should also be considered in treatment failure outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Clinical response and treatment failure outcomes determined by the consensus of this multidisciplinary expert panel can be used for pediatric CAP studies to provide objective data translatable to clinical practice.

Qualitative study of emergency clinicians to inform a national guideline on the management of children with mild-to-moderate head injuries.

BACKGROUND: Head injury is a common reason children present to EDs. Guideline development to improve care for paediatric head injuries should target the information needs of ED clinicians and factors influencing its uptake. METHODS: We conducted semi-structured qualitative interviews (November 2017-November 2018) with a stratified purposive sample of ED clinicians from across Australia and New Zealand. We identified clinician information needs, used the Theoretical Domains Framework (TDF) to explore factors influencing the use of head CT and clinical decision rules/guidelines in CT decision-making, and explored ways to improve guideline uptake. Two researchers coded the interview transcripts using thematic content analysis. RESULTS: A total of 43 clinicians (28 doctors, 15 nurses), from 19 hospitals (5 tertiary, 8 suburban, 6 regional/rural) were interviewed. Clinicians sought guidance for scenarios including ED management of infants, children with underlying medical issues, delayed or representations and potential non-accidental injuries. Improvements to the quality and content of discharge communication and parental discussion materials were suggested. Known risks of radiation from head CTs has led to a culture of observation over use of CT in Australasia (TDF domain: beliefs about consequences). Formal and informal policies have resulted in senior clinicians making most head CT decisions in children (TDF domain: behavioural regulation). Senior clinicians consider their gestalt to be more accurate and outperform existing guidance (TDF domain: beliefs about capabilities), although they perceive guidelines as useful for training and supporting junior staff. Summaries, flow charts, publication in ED-specific journals and scripted training materials were suggestions to improve uptake. CONCLUSION: Information needs of ED clinicians, factors influencing use of head CT in children with head injuries and the role of guidelines were identified. These findings informed the scope and implementation strategies for an Australasian guideline for mild-to-moderate head injuries in children.

Using AAP Guidelines for Managing Febrile Infants Without C-Reactive Protein and Procalcitonin.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: In 2021, the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) published the Clinical Practice Guideline (CPG) for management of well-appearing, febrile infants 8 to 60 days old. For older infants, the guideline relies on several inflammatory markers, including tests not rapidly available in many settings like C-reactive protein (CRP) and procalcitonin (PCT). This study describes the performance of the AAP CPG for detecting invasive bacterial infections (IBI) without using CRP and PCT. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study included infants aged 8 to 60 days old presenting to Kaiser Permanente Northern California emergency departments between 2010 and 2019 with temperatures ≥38°C who met AAP CPG inclusion criteria and underwent complete blood counts, blood cultures, and urinalyses. Performance characteristics for detecting IBI were calculated for each age group. RESULTS: Among 1433 eligible infants, there were 57 (4.0%) bacteremia and 9 (0.6%) bacterial meningitis cases. Using absolute neutrophil count >5200/mm3 and temperature >38.5°C as inflammatory markers, 3 (5%) infants with IBI were misidentified. Sensitivities and specificities for detecting infants with IBIs in each age group were: 8 to 21 days: 100% (95% confidence interval [CI] 83.9%-100%) and 0% (95% CI 0%-1.4%); 22 to 28 days: 88.9% (95% CI 51.8%-99.7%) and 40.4% (95% CI 33.2%- 48.1%); and 29 to 60 days: 93.3% (95% CI 77.9%-99.2%) and 32.1% (95% CI 29.1%- 35.3%). Invasive interventions were recommended for 100% of infants aged 8 to 21 days; 58% to 100% of infants aged 22 to 28 days; and 0% to 69% of infants aged 29 to 60 days. CONCLUSIONS: When CRP and PCT are not available, the AAP CPG detected IBI in young, febrile infants with high sensitivity but low specificity.

Clinical management and outcomes for febrile infants 29-60 days evaluated in community emergency departments.

Objective: Describe emergency department (ED) management and patient outcomes for febrile infants 29-60 days of age who received a lumbar puncture (LP), with focus on timing of antibiotics and type of physician performing LP. Methods: Retrospective observational study of 35 California EDs from January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2019. Primary analysis was among patients with successful LP and primary outcome was hospital length of stay (LOS). Logistic regression analysis included variables associated with LOS of at least 2 days. Secondary outcomes were bacterial meningitis, hospital admission, length of antibiotics, and readmission. Results: Among 2569 febrile infants (median age 39 days), 667 underwent successful LP and 633 received intravenous antibiotics. Most infants (n = 559, 88.3%) had their LP before intravenous antibiotic administration. Pediatricians performed 54% of LPs and emergency physicians 34%. Sixteen infants (0.6% of 2569) were diagnosed with bacterial meningitis, and none died. Five hundred and fifty-eight (88%) infants receiving an LP were hospitalized. Among patients receiving an LP and antibiotics (n = 633), 6.5% were readmitted within 30 days. Patients receiving antibiotics before LP had a longer length of antibiotics (+ 7.9 hours, 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.8-13.4). Primary analysis found no association between timing of antibiotics and LOS (odds ratio [OR] 0.67, 95% CI 0.34-1.30), but shorter LOS when emergency physicians performed the LP (OR 0.66, 95% CI 0.45-0.97). Conclusions: Febrile infants in the ED had no deaths and few cases of bacterial meningitis. In community EDs, where a pediatrician is often not available, successful LP by emergency physician was associated with reduced inpatient LOS.

Sustainability of a Clinical Decision Support Intervention for Outpatient Care for Emergency Department Patients With Acute Pulmonary Embolism.

Importance: Physicians commonly hospitalize patients presenting to the emergency department (ED) with acute pulmonary embolism (PE), despite eligibility for safe outpatient management. Risk stratification using electronic health record-embedded clinical decision support systems can aid physician site-of-care decision-making and increase safe outpatient management. The long-term sustainability of early improvements after the cessation of trial-based, champion-led promotion is uncertain. Objective: To evaluate the sustainability of recommended site-of-care decision-making support 4 years after initial physician champion-led interventions to increase outpatient management for patients with acute PE. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study was conducted in 21 US community hospitals in an integrated health system. Participants included adult patients presenting to the ED with acute PE. Study sites had participated in an original decision-support intervention trial 4 years prior to the current study period: 10 sites were intervention sites, 11 sites were controls. In that trial, decision support with champion promotion resulted in significantly higher outpatient management at intervention sites compared with controls. After trial completion, all study sites were given continued access to a modified decision-support tool without further champion-led outreach. Data were analyzed from January 2019 to February 2020. Exposures: ED treatment with a modified clinical decision support tool. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome was frequency of outpatient management, defined as discharge home directly from the ED, stratified by the PE Severity Index. The safety measure of outpatient care was 7-day PE-related hospitalization. Results: This study included 1039 patients, including 533 (51.3%) women, with a median (IQR) age of 65 (52-74) years. Nearly half (474 patients [45.6%]) were rated lower risk on the PE Severity Index. Overall, 278 patients (26.8%) were treated as outpatients, with only four 7-day PE-related hospitalizations (1.4%; 95% CI, 0.4%-3.6%). The practice gap in outpatient management created by the earlier trial persisted in the outpatient management for patients with lower risk: 109 of 236 patients (46.2%) at former intervention sites vs 81 of 238 patients (34.0%) at former control sites (difference, 12.2; [95% CI, 3.4-20.9] percentage points; P = .007), with wide interfacility variation (range, 7.1%-47.1%). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, a champion-led, decision-support intervention to increase outpatient management for patients presenting to the ED with acute pulmonary embolism was associated with sustained higher rates of outpatient management 4 years later. The application of our findings to improving sustainability of practice change for other clinical conditions warrants further study.

Higher intensity of 72-h noninvasive cardiac test referral does not improve short-term outcomes among emergency department patients with chest pain.

BACKGROUND: It is unclear whether referral for cardiac noninvasive testing (NIT) following emergency department (ED) chest pain encounters improves short-term outcomes. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study of patients presenting with chest pain, without ST-elevation myocardial infarction or myocardial injury by serum troponin testing, between 2013 and 2019 to 21 EDs within an integrated health care system. We examined the association between NIT referral (within 72 h of the ED encounter) and a primary outcome of 60-day major adverse cardiac events (MACE). Secondary outcomes were 60-day MACE without coronary revascularization (MACE-CR) and 60-day all-cause mortality. To account for confounding by indication for NIT, we grouped patient encounters into ranked tertiles of NIT referral intensity based on the likelihood of 72-h NIT referral associated with the initially assigned emergency physician, relative to local peers and within discrete time periods. Associations between NIT referral-intensity tertile and outcomes were assessed using risk-adjusted multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: Among 210,948 eligible patient encounters, 72-h NIT referral frequency was 11.9%, 18.3%, and 25.9% in low, intermediate, and high NIT referral-intensity encounters, respectively. Compared with the low referral-intensity tertile, there was a higher risk of 60-day MACE within the high referral-intensity tertile (odds ratio [OR] = 1.11, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.04 to 1.17) due to more coronary revascularizations without corresponding differences in MACE-CR or all-cause mortality. In analyses stratified by patients' estimated risk (HEART score; 50.5% lower risk, 38.7% moderate risk, 10.8% higher risk), the difference in 60-day MACE was primarily attributable to moderate-risk encounters (OR = 1.15, 95% CI = 1.08 to 1.24), with no differences among either lower- (OR = 1.10, 95% CI = 0.92 to 1.31) or higher- (OR = 1.01, 95% CI = 0.90 to 1.14) risk encounters. CONCLUSION: Higher referral intensity for 72-h NIT was associated with higher risk of coronary revascularization but no difference in adverse events within 60 days. These findings further call into question the urgency of NIT among ED patients without objective evidence of myocardial injury.

Emergency Medical Service Utilization and Response Following COVID-19 Emergency and Stay-at-Home Policies: An Interrupted Time-Series Analysis.

Objective Examine changing emergency medical services (EMS) utilization and response patterns associated with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) emergency declaration and stay-at-home orders during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods We conducted an uncontrolled interrupted time series analysis of EMS calls (January 1, 2019 - March 1, 2021) in Marin County, California analyzing call volume (All calls, n=46,055); patient refusal of EMS care or transport and patient care resolved on scene (Calls with opportunity for transport; n=37,401); and call severity (Transported calls; n=27,887). Results Pre-COVID-19 (1/1/2019-3/2/2020), EMS transported patients were predominately female (50.6%), 80+ years old (31.6%), and Marin County residents (68.0%). During COVID-19 (3/3/2020-3/1/2021), EMS transported patients were predominately male (52.7%), 35-64 years old (29.8%), and Marin County residents (70.4%). After the first stay-at-home order on 3/17/2020, call volume immediately decreased by 48% (adjusted incidence rate ratio [aIRR]=0.52; 95% CI=0.35,0.79) for children (0-15 years) and 34% for adults 80+ years (aIRR=0.66;95% CI=0.46,0.95). The odds of a transported call being prioritized as severe doubled (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]=2.26; 95% CI=1.11,4.59). Though transport refusals increased by 69% for children after the first order (aOR, 1.69 [95% CI, 1.13-2.52]), immediately following the second order on 12/8/2020, transport refusals decreased by 30% for children but increased 38-40% for adults 35-79 years (aOR=1.40 [95% CI=1.04-1.89] for 35-64 years; 1.38 [95% CI=1.02-1.87] for 65-79 years). Calls resolved on scene by EMS increased after the first order among all ages and after the second order for adults 16-79 years.  Conclusions Call volume reduced for children and older adults after the first COVID-19 stay-at-home order. Changes in call severity, patient care refusals, and on-scene care provided by EMS indicated a changing role for EMS during the outbreak.

Predictors of Acute Atrial Fibrillation and Flutter Hospitalization across 7 U.S. Emergency Departments: A Prospective Study.

INTRODUCTION: International rates of hospitalization for atrial fibrillation and flutter (AFF) from the emergency department (ED) vary widely without clear evidence to guide the identification of high-risk patients requiring inpatient management. We sought to determine (1) variation in hospital admission and (2) modifiable factors associated with hospitalization of AFF patients within a U.S. integrated health system. METHODS: This multicenter prospective observational study of health plan members with symptomatic AFF was conducted using convenience sampling in 7 urban community EDs from 05/2011 to 08/2012. Prospective data collection included presenting symptoms, characteristics of atrial dysrhythmia, ED physician impression of hemodynamic instability, comorbid diagnoses, ED management, and ED discharge rhythm. All centers had full-time on-call cardiology consultation available. Additional variables were extracted from the electronic health record. We identified factors associated with hospitalization and included predictors in a multivariate Poisson Generalized Estimating Equations regression model to estimate adjusted relative risks while accounting for clustering by physician. RESULTS: Among 1,942 eligible AFF patients, 1,074 (55.3%) were discharged home and 868 (44.7%) were hospitalized. Hospitalization rates ranged from 37.4% to 60.4% across medical centers. After adjustment, modifiable factors associated with increased hospital admission from the ED included non-sinus rhythm at ED discharge, no attempted cardioversion, and heart rate reduction. DISCUSSION: Within an integrated health system, we found significant variation in AFF hospitalization rates and identified several modifiable factors associated with hospital admission. Standardizing treatment goals that specifically address best practices for ED rate reduction and rhythm control may reduce hospitalizations.

Graded Coronary Risk Stratification for Emergency Department Patients With Chest Pain: A Controlled Cohort Study.

Background Resource utilization among emergency department (ED) patients with possible coronary chest pain is highly variable. Methods and Results Controlled cohort study amongst 21 EDs of an integrated healthcare system examining the implementation of a graded coronary risk stratification algorithm (RISTRA-ACS [risk stratification for acute coronary syndrome]). Thirteen EDs had access to RISTRA-ACS within the electronic health record (RISTRA sites) beginning in month 24 of a 48-month study period (January 2016 to December 2019); the remaining 8 EDs served as contemporaneous controls. Study participants had a chief complaint of chest pain and serum troponin measurement in the ED. The primary outcome was index visit resource utilization (observation unit or hospital admission, or 7-day objective cardiac testing). Secondary outcomes were 30-day objective cardiac testing, 60-day major adverse cardiac events (MACE), and 60-day MACE-CR (MACE excluding coronary revascularization). Difference-in-differences analyses controlled for secular trends with stratification by estimated risk and adjustment for risk factors, ED physician and facility. A total of 154 914 encounters were included. Relative to control sites, 30-day objective cardiac testing decreased at RISTRA sites among patients with low (≤2%) estimated 60-day MACE risk (-2.5%, 95% CI -3.7 to -1.2%, P<0.001) and increased among patients with non-low (>2%) estimated risk (+2.8%, 95% CI +0.6 to +4.9%, P=0.014), without significant overall change (-1.0%, 95% CI -2.1 to 0.1%, P=0.079). There were no statistically significant differences in index visit resource utilization, 60-day MACE or 60-day MACE-CR. Conclusions Implementation of RISTRA-ACS was associated with better allocation of 30-day objective cardiac testing and no change in index visit resource utilization or 60-day MACE. Registration URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT03286179.

Clinical characteristics of COVID-19 patients evaluated in the emergency department: A retrospective cohort study of 801 cases.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), the disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has extracted devastating tolls. Despite its pervasiveness, robust information on disease characteristics in the emergency department (ED) and how that information predicts clinical course remain limited. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of the first ED visit from SARS-CoV-2-positive patients in our health system, from February 21, 2020 to April 5, 2020. We reviewed each patient's ED visit(s) and included the first visit with symptoms consistent with COVID-19. We collected demographic, clinical, and treatment variables from electronic health records and structured manual chart review. We used multivariable logistic regression to examine the association between patient characteristics and 2 primary outcomes: a critical outcome and hospitalization from index visit. Our critical outcome was defined as death or advanced respiratory support (high flow nasal cannula or greater) within 21 days. RESULTS: Of the first 1030 encounters, 801 met our inclusion criteria: 15% were over age 75 years, 47% were female, and 24% were non-Hispanic white. We found 161 (20%) had a critical outcome and 393 (49%) were hospitalized. Independent predictors of a critical outcome included a history of hypertension, abnormal chest x-ray, elevated neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio, elevated blood urea nitrogen (BUN), measured fever, and abnormal respiratory vital signs (respiratory rate, oxygen saturation). Independent predictors of hospitalization included abnormal pulmonary auscultation, elevated BUN, measured fever, and abnormal respiratory vital signs. CONCLUSIONS: In this large, diverse study of ED patients with COVID-19, we have identified numerous clinical characteristics that have independent associations with critical illness and hospitalization.

Prospective Validation and Comparative Analysis of Coronary Risk Stratification Strategies Among Emergency Department Patients With Chest Pain.

Background Coronary risk stratification is recommended for emergency department patients with chest pain. Many protocols are designed as "rule-out" binary classification strategies, while others use graded-risk stratification. The comparative performance of competing approaches at varying levels of risk tolerance has not been widely reported. Methods and Results This is a prospective cohort study of adult patients with chest pain presenting between January 2018 and December 2019 to 13 medical center emergency departments within an integrated healthcare delivery system. Using an electronic clinical decision support interface, we externally validated and assessed the net benefit (at varying risk thresholds) of several coronary risk scores (History, ECG, Age, Risk Factors, and Troponin [HEART] score, HEART pathway, Emergency Department Assessment of Chest Pain Score Accelerated Diagnostic Protocol), troponin-only strategies (fourth-generation assay), unstructured physician gestalt, and a novel risk algorithm (RISTRA-ACS). The primary outcome was 60-day major adverse cardiac event defined as myocardial infarction, cardiac arrest, cardiogenic shock, coronary revascularization, or all-cause mortality. There were 13 192 patient encounters included with a 60-day major adverse cardiac event incidence of 3.7%. RISTRA-ACS and HEART pathway had the lowest negative likelihood ratios (0.06, 95% CI, 0.03-0.10 and 0.07, 95% CI, 0.04-0.11, respectively) and the greatest net benefit across a range of low-risk thresholds. RISTRA-ACS demonstrated the highest discrimination for 60-day major adverse cardiac event (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.92, 95% CI, 0.91-0.94, P<0.0001). Conclusions RISTRA-ACS and HEART pathway were the optimal rule-out approaches, while RISTRA-ACS was the best-performing graded-risk approach. RISTRA-ACS offers promise as a versatile single approach to emergency department coronary risk stratification. Registration URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT03286179.

Australian and New Zealand Guideline for Mild to Moderate Head Injuries in Children.

OBJECTIVE: Children frequently present with head injuries to acute care settings. Although international paediatric clinical practice guidelines for head injuries exist, they do not address all considerations related to triage, imaging, observation versus admission, transfer, discharge and follow-up of mild to moderate head injuries relevant to the Australian and New Zealand context. The Paediatric Research in Emergency Departments International Collaborative (PREDICT) set out to develop an evidence-based, locally applicable, practical clinical guideline for the care of children with mild to moderate head injuries presenting to acute care settings. METHODS: A multidisciplinary Guideline Working Group (GWG) developed 33 questions in three key areas - triage, imaging and discharge of children with mild to moderate head injuries presenting to acute care settings. We identified existing high-quality guidelines and from these guidelines recommendations were mapped to clinical questions. Updated literature searches were undertaken, and key new evidence identified. Recommendations were created through either adoption, adaptation or development of de novo recommendations. The guideline was revised after a period of public consultation. RESULTS: The GWG developed 71 recommendations (evidence-informed = 35, consensus-based = 17, practice points = 19), relevant to the Australian and New Zealand setting. The guideline is presented as three documents: (i) a detailed Full Guideline summarising the evidence underlying each recommendation; (ii) a Guideline Summary; and (iii) a clinical Algorithm: Imaging and Observation Decision-making for Children with Head Injuries. CONCLUSIONS: The PREDICT Australian and New Zealand Guideline for Mild to Moderate Head Injuries in Children provides high-level evidence and practical guidance for front line clinicians.