The Need to Appear Healthy: Concealment of Chronic Illness, Privacy, and Self-Sufficiency Among Chronically Ill Older Nigerians.

Background and Objectives: Prior research has highlighted the beneficial impact of social networks and social support on older adults' physical and psychosocial well-being. However, the impact of the relationship between chronic illness and social networks on the psychosocial well-being of older Nigerians remains understudied. This study explored how older Nigerians with chronic illnesses navigate the physical, mental, and emotional changes due to their chronic disease diagnosis within their social contexts. Research Design and Methods: The current qualitative study used semistructured in-depth interviews with 19 purposively sampled older adults, aged 50 years and over, chronically ill, and receiving clinical care to examine the role of social networks in how chronically ill older Nigerians cope with their diagnosis. Results: Three main themes reflecting participants' experiences emerged from the findings: (1) closely knit circles, (2) privacy and self-sufficiency, and (3) body image. Results show that chronically ill older Nigerians prefer to keep the knowledge of their conditions strictly within their close family circles. It was considered horrific to inform friends, community members, and religious groups about one's chronic illness. Findings further reveal that the need to appear healthy to one's social network stems from the fear of being discriminated against and attempts to maintain some level of normalcy when interacting with others. Additionally, feelings of inferiority and shame limited their participation in social activities and social network maintenance. Discussion and Implications: We discuss the implications of the results for the mental well-being and quality of life of chronically ill older Nigerians and make recommendations for policies and resources that can improve the well-being of chronically ill Nigerians.

Prevalence and correlates of the use of complementary and alternative medicines among older adults with joint pain.

BACKGROUND: There is increasing use of complementary and alternative medicines (CAMs) alone or as an adjuvant therapy to conventional medicines in osteoarthritis (OA) patients. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to describe the prevalence and correlates of the use of CAMs among community-dwelling older adults. METHODS: Data from the Tasmania Older Adult Cohort Study (TASOAC, n = 1099) were used to describe the prevalence of CAM use. Correlates of CAM use were assessed by comparing CAM users and non-users. To further assess correlates of CAM use, participants with at least one joint with pain were classified into four categories: CAM-only, analgesics-only, co-therapy, and "neither CAMs nor analgesics" (NCNA). RESULTS: In all, 385 (35.0%) of our participants reported use of CAMs, among which vitamins/minerals were used most (22.6%, n = 232). Compared with CAM non-users, CAM users were more likely to be female, were less likely to be overweight, were better educated, had more joints with OA, had fewer WOMAC scores, and did more steps per day. Among participants with any joint pain, the CAM-only group were less likely to be overweight, consumed more alcohol, had higher quality of life, had more steps per day, and had fewer pain-related symptoms compared with the analgesic-only group. CONCLUSION: Complementary and alternative medicines were commonly used among Tasmanian older adults, with 35% of the population using CAMs either alone or in combination with conventional analgesics. CAM users were more likely to be female, be better educated, have more joints with OA, and had healthier lifestyles, including lower body mass index and higher number of steps per day.

COPD in Africa: risk factors, hospitalisation, readmission and associated outcomes-a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: This review aims to synthesise available evidence on the prevalence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), associated risk factors, hospitalisations and COPD readmissions in Africa. METHOD: Using the Met-Analyses and Systematic Reviews of Observational Studies guideline, electronic databases were searched from inception to 1 October 2021. The quality of studies was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. Evidence from retrieved articles was synthesised, and a random-effect model meta-analysis was conducted. The protocol was registered on PROSPERO. RESULTS: Thirty-nine studies met the inclusion criteria, with 13 included in the meta-analysis. The prevalence of COPD varied between the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (2%-24%), American Thoracic Society/European Respiratory Society (1%-17%) and Medical Research Council chronic bronchitis (2%-11%) criteria, respectively. Increasing age, wheezing and asthma were consistent risk factors for COPD from studies included in the narrative synthesis. Our meta-analysis indicated that prior tuberculosis ((OR 5.98, 95% CI 4.18 to 8.56), smoking (OR 2.80, 95% CI: 2.19 to 3.59) and use of biomass fuel (OR 1.52, 95% CI: 1.39 to 1.67)) were significant risk factors for COPD. Long-term oxygen therapy (HR 4.97, 95% CI (1.04 to 23.74)) and frequent hospitalisation (≥3 per year) (HR 11.48, 95% CI (1.31 to 100.79)) were risk factors associated with 30-day COPD readmission. CONCLUSION: This study not only highlights specific risk factors for COPD risk in Africa but also demonstrates the paucity and absence of research in several countries in a continent with substantial COPD-related mortality. Our findings contribute towards the development of evidence-based clinical guidelines for COPD in Africa.PROSPERO registration numberCRD42020210581.

Analysis of Multiple Causes of Death: A Review of Methods and Practices.

BACKGROUND: Research and reporting of mortality indicators typically focus on a single underlying cause of death selected from multiple causes recorded on a death certificate. The need to incorporate the multiple causes in mortality statistics-reflecting increasing multimorbidity and complex causation patterns-is recognized internationally. This review aims to identify and appraise relevant analytical methods and practices related to multiple causes. METHODS: We searched Medline, PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science from their incept ion to December 2020 without language restrictions, supplemented by consultation with international experts. Eligible articles analyzed multiple causes of death from death certificates. The process identified 4,080 items of which we reviewed 434 full-text articles. RESULTS: Most articles we reviewed (76%, n = 332) were published since 2001. The majority of articles examined mortality by "any- mention" of the cause of death (87%, n = 377) and assessed pairwise combinations of causes (57%, n = 245). Since 2001, applications of methods emerged to group deaths based on common cause patterns using, for example, cluster analysis (2%, n = 9), and application of multiple-cause weights to re-evaluate mortality burden (1%, n = 5). We describe multiple-cause methods applied to specific research objectives for approaches emerging recently. CONCLUSION: This review confirms rapidly increasing international interest in the analysis of multiple causes of death and provides the most comprehensive overview, to our knowledge, of methods and practices to date. Available multiple-cause methods are diverse but suit a range of research objectives. With greater availability of data and technology, these could be further developed and applied across a range of settings.

Consensus guidelines for sarcopenia prevention, diagnosis and management in Australia and New Zealand.

BACKGROUND: Sarcopenia is an age-associated skeletal muscle condition characterized by low muscle mass, strength, and physical performance. There is no international consensus on a sarcopenia definition and no contemporaneous clinical and research guidelines specific to Australia and New Zealand. The Australian and New Zealand Society for Sarcopenia and Frailty Research (ANZSSFR) Sarcopenia Diagnosis and Management Task Force aimed to develop consensus guidelines for sarcopenia prevention, assessment, management and research, informed by evidence, consumer opinion, and expert consensus, for use by health professionals and researchers in Australia and New Zealand. METHODS: A four-phase modified Delphi process involving topic experts and informed by consumers, was undertaken between July 2020 and August 2021. Phase 1 involved a structured meeting of 29 Task Force members and a systematic literature search from which the Phase 2 online survey was developed (Qualtrics). Topic experts responded to 18 statements, using 11-point Likert scales with agreement threshold set a priori at >80%, and five multiple-choice questions. Statements with moderate agreement (70%-80%) were revised and re-introduced in Phase 3, and statements with low agreement (<70%) were rejected. In Phase 3, topic experts responded to six revised statements and three additional questions, incorporating results from a parallel Consumer Expert Delphi study. Phase 4 involved finalization of consensus statements. RESULTS: Topic experts from Australia (n = 62, 92.5%) and New Zealand (n = 5, 7.5%) with a mean ± SD age of 45.7 ± 11.8 years participated in Phase 2; 38 (56.7%) were women, 38 (56.7%) were health professionals and 27 (40.3%) were researchers/academics. In Phase 2, 15 of 18 (83.3%) statements on sarcopenia prevention, screening, assessment, management and future research were accepted with strong agreement. The strongest agreement related to encouraging a healthy lifestyle (100%) and offering tailored resistance training to people with sarcopenia (92.5%). Forty-seven experts participated in Phase 3; 5/6 (83.3%) revised statements on prevention, assessment and management were accepted with strong agreement. A majority of experts (87.9%) preferred the revised European Working Group for Sarcopenia in Older Persons (EWGSOP2) definition. Seventeen statements with strong agreement (>80%) were confirmed by the Task Force in Phase 4. CONCLUSIONS: The ANZSSFR Task Force present 17 sarcopenia management and research recommendations for use by health professionals and researchers which includes the recommendation to adopt the EWGSOP2 sarcopenia definition in Australia and New Zealand. This rigorous Delphi process that combined evidence, consumer expert opinion and topic expert consensus can inform similar initiatives in countries/regions lacking consensus on sarcopenia.

The Australian and New Zealand Society for Sarcopenia and Frailty Research (ANZSSFR) sarcopenia diagnosis and management task force: Findings from the consumer expert Delphi process.

OBJECTIVES: To develop guidelines, informed by health-care consumer values and preferences, for sarcopenia prevention, assessment and management for use by clinicians and researchers in Australia and New Zealand. METHODS: A three-phase Consumer Expert Delphi process was undertaken between July 2020 and August 2021. Consumer experts included adults with lived experience of sarcopenia or health-care utilisation. Phase 1 involved a structured meeting of the Australian and New Zealand Society for Sarcopenia and Frailty Research (ANZSSFR) Sarcopenia Diagnosis and Management Task Force and consumer representatives from which the Phase 2 survey was developed. In Phase 2, consumers from Australia and New Zealand were surveyed online with opinions sought on sarcopenia outcome priorities, consultation preferences and interventions. Findings were confirmed and disseminated in Phase 3. Descriptive statistical analyses were performed. RESULTS: Twenty-four consumers (mean ± standard deviation age 67.5 ± 12.8 years, 18 women) participated in Phase 2. Ten (42%) identified as being interested in sarcopenia, 7 (29%) were health-care consumers and 6 (25%) self-reported having/believing they have sarcopenia. Consumers identified physical performance, living circumstances, morale, quality of life and social connectedness as the most important outcomes related to sarcopenia. Consumers either had no preference (46%) or preferred their doctor (40%) to diagnose sarcopenia and preferred to undergo assessments at least yearly (54%). For prevention and treatment, 46% of consumers preferred resistance exercise, 2-3 times per week (54%). CONCLUSIONS: Consumer preferences reported in this study can inform the implementation of sarcopenia guidelines into clinical practice at local, state and national levels across Australia and New Zealand.

Prospective associations between pain at multiple sites and falls among community-dwelling older Australians.

BACKGROUND: Pain at multiple sites is prevalent among older people. However, studies investigating the relationship between pain and falls focus largely on single-site pain. AIM: To examine the association between pain at multiple sites and falls among community-dwelling older Australians. METHODS: Participants aged >60 years were randomly selected from the electoral roll. Falls were recorded prospectively over 12 months. Pain at multiple sites was assessed using a questionnaire. The total number of painful sites was calculated. Widespread pain was defined as pain in the upper limb, lower limb and in the axial skeletal region, with moderate to severe pain in at least one region. Log multinomial regression, with adjustment for confounders, was used to estimate whether widespread pain or number of painful sites increased the risk of a single (one fall) and multiple falls (≥2 falls). RESULTS: There were 299 participants (43% women; mean age 72 ± 7.0 years). The mean (standard deviation) of falls was 0.8 ± 1.5. The frequencies of single and multiple falls were 23% (n = 68) and 16% (n = 49) respectively. A higher number of painful sites was associated with an elevated risk of a single fall (relative risk (RR) = 1.08; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.96-1.27) and multiple falls (RR = 1.20; 95% CI: 1.02-1.41). However, the risk of multiple, but not single fall was substantial and statistically significant. Furthermore, compared with those without pain, individuals with widespread pain had an elevated risk of single (RR = 1.87; 95% CI: 0.80-5.09) and multiple falls (RR = 3.94; 95% CI: 1.15-13.51). However, the magnitude of effects of single fall was smaller and not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: Falls risk should be ascertained for older people with pain, irrespective of whether they present with a single or multiple sites pain. Nevertheless, older adults with multisite pain may require additional attention as they appear to have a significantly elevated risk of multiple falls.

Navigating the maze of osteoarthritis treatment: A qualitative study exploring the experience of individuals with osteoarthritis in Tasmania, Australia.

OBJECTIVE: Using a qualitative design this study aimed to (1) explore the experience of people living with osteoarthritis (OA), (2) gain an understanding of their navigation of the health system and, (3) explore their opinions on the role of exercise and joint replacement surgery for the management of OA. METHODS: Purposive sampling was used to recruit 26 participants with knee OA, aged 45 years and over, from Tasmania, Australia. Semi-structured interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed, coded, and thematically analysed to document participant understanding and experience of OA and their opinions on the role of exercise and surgery in managing OA. RESULTS: Of the 26 participants, 80% (n = 21) were female with a mean age of 66 years. The main theme identified was that individuals with knee OA were navigating a maze of OA treatments. Three related subthemes were that participants: (i) perceived their general practitioner did not have an ongoing role in their OA care, (ii) self-directed their management and, (iii) sampled from a 'smorgasbord' of treatment options, including low-value care options. Two other major themes were: the role of exercise for OA management, and surgery as a last resort. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that OA patients may not be choosing consistent, high-value care for their OA. This highlights the importance of an evidence-based multi-disciplinary approach to guide patients to self-manage their OA and support their navigation of the health system. Reducing emphasis on the pathway to surgery and streamlining access to conservative management strategies may assist people to receive high-value care.

Quantifying cause-related mortality in Australia, incorporating multiple causes: observed patterns, trends and practical considerations.

BACKGROUND: Mortality statistics using a single underlying cause of death (UC) are key health indicators. Rising multimorbidity and chronic disease mean that deaths increasingly involve multiple conditions. However, additional causes reported on death certificates are rarely integrated into mortality indicators, partly due to complexities in data and methods. This study aimed to assess trends and patterns in cause-related mortality in Australia, integrating multiple causes (MC) of death. METHODS: Deaths (n = 1 773 399) in Australia (2006-17) were mapped to 136 ICD-10-based groups and MC indicators applied. Age-standardized cause-related rates (deaths/100 000) based on the UC (ASRUC) were compared with rates based on any mention of the cause (ASRAM) using rate ratios (RR = ASRAM/ASRUC) and to rates based on weighting multiple contributing causes (ASRW). RESULTS: Deaths involved on average 3.4 causes in 2017; the percentage with >4 causes increased from 20.9 (2006) to 24.4 (2017). Ischaemic heart disease (ASRUC = 73.3, ASRAM = 135.8, ASRW = 63.5), dementia (ASRUC = 51.1, ASRAM = 98.1, ASRW = 52.1) and cerebrovascular diseases (ASRUC = 39.9, ASRAM = 76.7, ASRW = 33.5) ranked as leading causes by all methods. Causes with high RR included hypertension (ASRUC = 2.2, RR = 35.5), atrial fibrillation (ASRUC = 8.0, RR = 6.5) and diabetes (ASRUC = 18.5, RR = 3.5); the corresponding ASRW were 12.5, 12.6 and 24.0, respectively. Renal failure, atrial fibrillation and hypertension ranked among the 10 leading causes by ASRAM and ASRW but not by ASRUC. Practical considerations in working with MC data are discussed. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the similarities in leading causes under the three methods, with integration of MC several preventable diseases emerged as leading causes. MC analyses offer a richer additional perspective for population health monitoring and policy development.

Clinical relevance of MRI knee abnormalities in Australian rules football players: a longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND/AIM: The clinical relevance of MRI knee abnormalities in athletes is unclear. This study aimed to determine the prevalence of MRI knee abnormalities in Australian Rules Football (ARF) players and describe their associations with pain, function, past and incident injury and surgery history. METHODS: 75 male players (mean age 21, range 16-30) from the Tasmanian State Football League were examined early in the playing season (baseline). History of knee injury/surgery and knee pain and function were assessed. Players underwent MRI scans of both knees at baseline. Clinical measurements and MRI scans were repeated at the end of the season, and incident knee injuries during the season were recorded. RESULTS: MRI knee abnormalities were common at baseline (67% bone marrow lesions, 16% meniscal tear/extrusion, 43% cartilage defects, 67% effusion synovitis). Meniscal tears/extrusion and synovial fluid volume were positively associated with knee symptoms, but these associations were small in magnitude and did not persist after further accounting for injury history. Players with a history of injury were at a greater risk of having meniscal tears/extrusion, effusion synovitis and greater synovial fluid volume. In contrast, players with a history of surgery were at a greater risk of having cartilage defects and meniscal tears/extrusion. Incident injuries were significantly associated with worsening symptoms, BML development and incident meniscal damage. CONCLUSIONS: MRI abnormalities are common in ARF players, are linked to a previous knee injury and surgery history, as well as incident injury but do not dictate clinical symptomatology.

Population Vitamin D Stores Are Increasing in Tasmania, and This Is Associated With Less BMD Loss Over 10 Years.

CONTEXT: Vitamin D deficiency is a common, modifiable determinant of musculoskeletal health. OBJECTIVE: There are limited data that examine the longitudinal change in population 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D) and none that evaluate the long-term skeletal outcomes of longitudinal vitamin D status. METHODS: A prospective cohort analysis was conducted of community-dwelling adults aged 50 to 80 years who had 25(OH)D assessed by radioimmunoassay and bone mineral density (BMD) by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry at baseline (n = 1096), 2.5 (n = 870), and 10 (n = 565) years. Sun exposure was quantified by questionnaire and supplement use at clinic review. 25(OH)D less than 50 nmol/L was considered deficient. Participants were provided with their 25(OH)D results. RESULTS: Over 10 years 25(OH)D increased (52.2 ±â€…17.0 to 63.5 ±â€…23.6 nmol/L, P < .001). Participants with baseline deficiency had larger 25(OH)D increases than baseline sufficient participants (19.2 ±â€…25.3 vs 1.6 ±â€…23.3 nmol/L, P < .001). Longitudinal change in 25(OH)D was associated with baseline summer (ß = 1.46, P < .001) and winter (ß = 1.29, P = .003) sun exposure, change in summer (ß = 1.27, P = .002) and winter (ß = 1.47, P < .001) sun exposure, and vitamin D supplement use (ß = 25.0-33.0, P < .001). Persistent vitamin D sufficiency was associated with less BMD loss at the femoral neck (ß = 0.020, P = .027), lumbar spine (ß = 0.033, P = .003), and total hip (ß = 0.023, P = .021) compared to persistent vitamin D deficiency. Achieving vitamin D sufficiency was associated with less BMD loss at the lumbar spine (ß = 0.045, P < .001) compared to persistent vitamin D deficiency. CONCLUSIONS: Population 25(OH)D concentration increased because of a combination of increased sun exposure and supplement use. Maintaining or achieving vitamin D sufficiency was associated with less BMD loss over 10 years.

Linear and Nonlinear Associations Between Physical Activity, Body Composition, and Multimorbidity Over 10 Years Among Community-Dwelling Older Adults.

BACKGROUND: This study aims to describe the relationships between physical activity (PA), body composition, and multimorbidity over 10 years. METHOD: Participants (N = 373; 49% women; average age 61.3 ± 6.7 years) were followed for 10 years. Multimorbidity was defined by self-report as the presence of 2 or more of 12 listed chronic conditions. PA (steps per day) at baseline was assessed by pedometer, handgrip strength (HGS) by dynamometer, and appendicular lean mass (ALM) and total body fat mass by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry. Relative HGS and ALM were calculated by dividing each body mass index (BMI). Regression cubic splines were used to assess evidence for a nonlinear relationship. RESULTS: After 10 years, 45% participants had multimorbidity. There was a nonlinear relationship between PA and multimorbidity-PA was associated with lower multimorbidity risk among individuals who engaged in <10 000 steps/d (relative risk [RR] = 0.91, 95% CI: 0.85, 0.97, per 1 000 steps/d), but not among those who participated in ≥10 000 steps/d (RR = 1.04, 95% CI: 0.93, 1.09, per 1 000 steps/d). Higher BMI (RR = 1.05, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.08, per kg/m2) and fat mass (RR = 1.03, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.04, per kg), and lower relative HGS (RR = 0.85, 95% CI: 0.77, 0.94, per 0.1 psi/kg/m2) and ALM (RR = 0.93, 95% CI: 0.88, 0.98, per 0.1 kg/kg/m2) were linearly associated with a higher risk of multimorbidity. Absolute HGS and ALM were not significantly associated with multimorbidity. DISCUSSION: These findings highlight the potential clinical importance of maintaining adequate levels of PA and of reducing adiposity and maintaining muscle function for minimizing the risk of multimorbidity in older adults.

The Tasmanian electronic falls ascertainment tool-A pilot study.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to develop and test the feasibility of using an electronic tool to ascertain falls and their circumstances (TASeFALL) in people aged over 60 years. METHODS: Forty participants (mean age: 69.3 ± 5.4 years, 55% women) were randomised to receive a monthly paper-based questionnaire (control group n = 19), compared with the same questionnaire sent via email with LimeSurvey software (TASeFALL n = 21). Falls and their circumstances were recorded prospectively over 12 months in all participants. The main outcomes were feasibility of enrolment, number of falls, adherence to completion of questionnaires and cost. RESULTS: The incidence, number of falls and adherence to the completion of the questionnaire over the 12-month follow-up were similar in both the TASeFALL and control groups. However, the monthly paper-based questionnaire approach was 45% more expensive. CONCLUSIONS: The TASeFALL is a feasible and cost-effective method of falls ascertainment for older people with email access that could have a wide research uptake.

Understanding the management of osteoarthritis: A qualitative study of GPs and orthopaedic surgeons in Tasmania, Australia.

Objective: Using a qualitative design this study aimed to 1) explore the attitudes towards and understanding of osteoarthritis (OA) held by Tasmanian general practitioners (GPs) and orthopaedic surgeons, 2) gain a deeper understanding of conservative and surgical management and 3) identify key barriers and challenges. Design: Purposive sampling was used to recruit 17 â€‹GPs and 10 surgeons from Tasmania, Australia. Semi-structured interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed, coded, and thematically analysed to document understanding of OA, management and treatment decision making. Results: GPs and surgeons had a shared understanding of the cause and management of OA which aligned well with evidence-based best practice. Most GPs acknowledged that severity of disease on an X-Ray does not correlate well with symptoms, although some GPs reported always using imaging to support their diagnosis. Conservative management was highly supported by all interviewees, focussing on exercise and/or physiotherapy. Key treatment barriers included managing poor patient understanding of OA, unrealistic expectations for treatment, lack of patient motivation and scepticism towards exercise, and cost and accessibility of conservative treatment options. Surgery was considered a suitable option when conservative management options had been exhausted. Conclusion: This study uniquely interviewed GPs and surgeons from the same population, capturing two crucial areas of OA management. Some key barriers to treatment were identified and options for improving treatment include creating opportunities for increased patient education about OA, enhanced accessibility to OA conservative management programs along with improved reimbursement models supporting conservative management as first-line OA treatment.

Education, occupation and operational measures of sarcopenia: Six years of Australian data.

OBJECTIVES: To examine associations of education and occupation with handgrip strength (HGS), lower limb strength (LLS) and appendicular lean mass (ALM). METHODS: Measures of HGS, LLS and ALM (dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry) were ascertained at baseline in 1090 adults (50-80 years, 51% women), ~3 and 5 years. Education and occupation were self-reported, the latter categorised as high-skilled white collar (HSWC), low-skilled white collar (LSWC) or blue collar. Separate general estimating equations were performed. RESULTS: The highest education group had greater HGS than the middle (0.33 psi) and lowest (0.48 psi) education groups, and 0.34 kg greater ALM than the lowest education group. HGS was 0.46 psi greater for HSWC than LSWC groups. Compared to LSWC groups, LLS was 5.38 and 7.08 kg greater in HSWC and blue-collar groups. Blue-collar and HSWC groups each had ~ 0.60-0.80kg greater ALM than LSWC. CONCLUSION: Progressive muscle loss can be prevented by targeted intervention; thus, we suggest clinical attention be directed towards specific social groups.

Incidence and predictors of fractures in older adults with and without obesity defined by body mass index versus body fat percentage.

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to determine and compare risk factors associated with incident fractures in older adults with and without obesity, defined by both body mass index (BMI) and body fat percentage. METHODS: 1,099 older adults (mean ± standard deviation age = 63.0 ± 7.5) years, participated in this prospective cohort study. Obesity status at baseline was defined by BMI (≥30 kg/m2) obtained by anthropometry and body fat percentage (≥30% for men and ≥40% for women) assessed by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA). Total hip and lumbar spine areal bone mineral density (aBMD) were assessed by DXA up to five years. Incident fractures were self-reported up to 10 years. RESULTS: Prevalence of obesity was 28% according to BMI and 43% according to body fat percentage. Obese older adults by BMI, but not body fat percentage, had significantly higher aBMD at the total hip and spine compared with non-obese (both p-value<0.05). Obese older adults by body fat percentage had significantly higher likelihood of all incident fractures (OR: 1.71; CI:1.08, 2.71) and non-vertebral fractures (OR: 1.88; CI:1.16, 3.04) compared with non-obese after adjusting for confounders. Conversely, obese older adults by BMI had a significantly lower likelihood (OR: 0.54; CI:0.31, 0.94) of non-vertebral fractures although this was no longer significant after adjustment for total hip aBMD (all p-value > 0.05). Mediation analysis confirmed that aBMD meditated the effects of BMI, but not body fat percentage, on all incident fractures. Higher baseline falls risk score was the only consistent predictor of increased likelihood of incident fracture in obese individuals only, according to both BMI and body fat percentage (both p-value<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Obesity defined by body fat percentage is associated with increased likelihood of incident fractures in community-dwelling older adults, whereas those who are obese according to BMI have reduced likelihood of incident fracture which appears to be explained by higher aBMD. Falls risk assessment may improve identification of obese older adults at increased risk of incident fractures.

Longitudinal study of the relationship between physical activity and knee pain and functional limitation in community-dwelling older adults.

AIMS: To describe the associations between interindividual (between-person) and intraindividual (within-person) variability in physical activity (PA) and knee pain and functional limitation among older adults. We also investigated the potential bidirectional association of between-person and within-person variability in knee pain and functional limitation with PA. METHOD: Participants (N = 1064; 51% women; mean age 63 ± 7.4 years) were measured at baseline, 2.5, and 5 years. PA was measured using pedometers. Knee pain and functional limitation were assessed using the WOMAC scale. A two-part hurdle model, with adjustment for confounders, estimated the association of between-person and within-person variability in PA with knee pain/functional limitation (as the outcome). Linear mixed effect regression models described the association of between-person and within-person variability in knee pain and functional limitation with PA (as the outcome). RESULTS: Between-person effects showed that participants with a higher 5-year average PA had lower average WOMAC scores (ß= -1.17, 95% CI: -1.82, -0.51). Within-person effects showed that at time-points when participants had a higher PA level than average, they also had lower WOMAC scores (ß= -0.85, 95% CI: -1.36, -0.35). Conversely, both between-person (ß= -15.6, 95% CI: -22.5, -8.8) and within-person increase (ß= -7.4, 95% CI: -13.5, -1.4) in WOMAC scores were associated with lower PA. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that PA and knee pain/dysfunctional contribute to the development of one another. Pain can lead to changes in inter- and intraindividual PA levels, but the reverse is also possible - changes in PA results in changes in inter- and intraindividual pain/dysfunctional levels.

Do Older Adults with Low Muscle Mass or Strength, in the Presence of Obesity, Have an Increased Risk of Joint Replacement Over 13 Years?

This study aims to assess whether older adults with low muscle mass or strength, in the presence of obesity, have an increased risk of knee (TKR) and hip replacement (THR) over 13 years. 1082 community-dwelling older adults (51% women; mean age 62.9 ± 7.5 years) were studied at baseline and multiple time points over 13 years. The incidence of TKR and THR was determined by data linkage to National Joint Replacement Registry. Appendicular lean and fat mass were measured using DXA. Lower-limb muscle strength (LMS) was assessed by dynamometer. Low muscle mass and strength were defined as the lowest sex-specific tertiles for appendicular lean mass (adjusted for height and total body fat mass) and lower-limb strength, respectively. Obesity was defined as the highest sex-specific tertile for total body fat mass. Competing risk regression models were used to estimate the sub-distribution hazard ratio (SHR) for TKR and THR. Over 13 years of follow-up, 6.8% (n = 74/1082) of the participants had a TKR and 4.7% (n = 50/1066) had THR. Participants with the combination of obesity and low muscle strength (SHR 3.36, 95% CI 1.50, 7.53) but low muscle mass (SHR 1.11, 95% CI 0.52, 2.40) had a significantly increased risk of TKR, compared to individuals with neither obesity nor low muscle mass/strength. However, obesity with low muscle strength did not lead to a significantly greater risk of TKR compared to having low muscle strength or obesity alone. There was no evidence for an association between obesity with low muscle mass or strength and THR (all p > 0.05). This finding suggests that combining muscle and fat assessments to predict the future risk of TKR is no better than each condition on its own.

White Matter Hyperintensities and the Progression of Frailty-The Tasmanian Study of Cognition and Gait.

BACKGROUND: The contribution of cerebral small vessel disease (cSVD) to the pathogenesis of frailty remains uncertain. We aimed to examine the associations between cSVD with progression of frailty in a population-based study of older people. METHODS: People aged between 60 and 85 years were randomly selected form the electoral roll to participate in the Tasmanian Study of Cognition and Gait. Participants underwent self-reported questionnaires, objective gait, cognitive and sensorimotor testing over three phases ranging between 2005 and 2012. These data were used to calculate a 41-item frailty index (FI) at three time points. Baseline brain magnetic resonance imaging was performed on all participants to measure cSVD. Generalized mixed models were used to examine associations between baseline cSVD and progression of frailty, adjusted for confounders of age, sex, level of education, and total intracranial volume. RESULTS: At baseline (n = 388) mean age was 72 years (SD = 7.0), 44% were female, and the median FI score was 0.20 (interquartile range [IQR] 0.12, 0.27). In fully adjusted models higher burden of baseline white matter hyperintensity (WMH) was associated with frailty progression over 4.4 years (ß = 0.03, 95% CI: 0.01, 0.05; p = .004) independent of other SVD markers. Neither baseline infarcts (p = .23), nor microbleeds at baseline (p = .65) were associated with progression of frailty. CONCLUSIONS: We provide evidence for an association between baseline WMHs and progression of frailty. Our findings add to a growing body of literature suggesting WMH is a marker for frailty.

Longitudinal associations between dietary inflammatory index and musculoskeletal health in community-dwelling older adults.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Aging is characterized by progressive decline in physiologic reserves and functions as well as prolonged inflammation, increasing susceptibility to disease. Diet plays an important role in maintaining health, and reducing morbidity and mortality, especially in older populations. This study was designed to determine prospective associations between dietary inflammatory index (DII®) scores and bone health, sarcopenia-related outcomes, falls risk and incident fractures in community-dwelling Australian older adults. METHODS: A total of 1098 [51% male; age (mean ± SD) 63.0 ± 7.5 years] non-institutionalized older adults who participated in the Tasmanian Older Adult Cohort Study (TASOAC) at baseline, 768 at 5 years, and 566 at 10 years follow-up were included in this analysis. Baseline energy-adjusted DII (E-DII) scores were calculated using a validated Food Frequency Questionnaire. Changes in bone mineral density (BMD) and appendicular lean mass (ALM) were measured over ten years using dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry. Ten-year changes in hand grip, knee extensor and whole lower-limb muscle strength and quality were assessed by dynamometers and change in falls risk score using the Physical Profile Assessment (PPA). Incident fractures at any site and non-vertebral fractures over 10 years were self-reported. RESULTS: The E-DII range was -3.48 to +3.23 in men and -3.80 to +2.74 in women. Higher E-DII score (indicating a more pro-inflammatory diet) was associated with lower total hip (B: -0.009; 95% CI: -0.017, 0.000) and lumbar spine BMD (B: -0.013; 95% CI: -0.024, -0.002), and higher falls risk score (B: 0.040; 95% CI: 0.002, 0.078) over 10 years in men. Women with higher E-DII scores had higher whole lower-limb muscle quality over 10 years (B: 0.109; 95% CI: 0.002, 0.215). For every unit increase in E-DII score, incident fracture rates increased by 9.0% in men (IRR: 1.090; 95% CI: 1.011, 1.175) and decreased by 12.2% in women (IRR: 0.878; 95% CI: 0.800, 0.964) in a fully adjusted model. CONCLUSION: Higher E-DII scores were associated with lower bone density, higher falls risk, and increased incidence of fractures in community-dwelling older men, but decreased fracture incidence in women, over 10 years. This suggests pro-inflammatory diets may be more detrimental to musculoskeletal health in older men than in women. Additional studies are warranted to elucidate these sex differences.