Water crisis in Iran: A system dynamics approach on water, energy, food, land and climate (WEFLC) nexus.

Water scarcity is a highly complex, multifaceted and dynamic issue, which has become a severe global challenge. Water scarcity is a hyperconnected phenomenon and thus should be studied through nexus approach, however current water-energy-food (WEF) nexus underrepresents the impacts of land use change and climate change on water scarcity. Therefore, this study was investigated to expand the WEF nexus coverage of further systems, improving the accuracy of nexus models for decision-making and narrowing science-policy gap. Current study developed a water-energy-food-land-climate (WEFLC) nexus model to analyze the water scarcity. Modeling the complex behavior of water scarcity enables the analysis of the efficiency of some adaptation policies in addressing water scarcity and will provide suggestions for improving adaptation practices. The results showed that there is a substantial water supply-demand gap in study region, with an excess consumption of 62,361 million m3. Under baseline scenario, the gap between water supply and demand will enlarge, leading to water crisis in Iran as our study region. Climate change was found to be the prime cause of exacerbating water scarcity in Iran, raising evapotranspiration from 70 % to 85 % in 50 years, and considerably increasing the water demand in various sectors. In terms of policy/adaptation measure analysis, the results showed that neither supply-side nor demand-side scenarios could solely address water crisis, and mixed supply-demand side interventions can be the most effective policy to alleviate water crisis. Overall, the study suggests that water resource management practices and policies in Iran should be reevaluated to include a system thinking management approach. The results can be used as a decision support tool that can recommend suitable mitigation and adaptation strategies for water scarcity in the country.

Should we Leave Nature Unattended or Assist through Enrichment to Foster Climate Change Mitigation? Exclosure Management in the Highlands of Ethiopia.

In order to foster the potential of exclosures to sequester carbon, it is understood that they are increasingly assisted through enrichment planting. To study the impact of the enrichment planting on carbon sequestration process, five exclosures with enrichment planting and five pure naturally regenerated exclosures were selected. Along parallel transects, 20 × 20 m plots were laid at 100 m intervals where all woody vegetations were counted and measured for their diameter and total height. For soil sampling, five subplots at the center and four at each corner of the plots were established. The samples were collected at a depth of 0-0.2 m, and this procedure was repeated for each plot. In this case, when good management practices were implemented (such as Wukro exclosures), significant differences in organic soil carbon above the ground and the total carbon between naturally regenerated and enriched exclosures (P < 0.05) were found. The mean estimates of the above ground carbon, soil carbon, and total carbon were respectively 8.08, 31.04, and 39.12 ton/ha for natural regeneration vs. 7.94, 31.00, and 38.93 ton/ha for enriched regeneration. Lower altitudes had significantly higher soil organic carbon (P < 0.05) than the higher altitudes. However, the slope had an insignificant effect on carbon distribution. Enriched exclosures performed more poorly in carbon sequestration. This was possibly due to the disturbances caused by mass plantation and poor post plantation follow up, since improved performance (P < 0.05) was seen in one enriched exclosure with better management practices.