The Persian plateau served as hub for Homo sapiens after the main out of Africa dispersal.

A combination of evidence, based on genetic, fossil and archaeological findings, indicates that Homo sapiens spread out of Africa between ~70-60 thousand years ago (kya). However, it appears that once outside of Africa, human populations did not expand across all of Eurasia until ~45 kya. The geographic whereabouts of these early settlers in the timeframe between ~70-60 to 45 kya has been difficult to reconcile. Here we combine genetic evidence and palaeoecological models to infer the geographic location that acted as the Hub for our species during the early phases of colonisation of Eurasia. Leveraging on available genomic evidence we show that populations from the Persian Plateau carry an ancestry component that closely matches the population that settled the Hub outside Africa. With the paleoclimatic data available to date, we built ecological models showing that the Persian Plateau was suitable for human occupation and that it could sustain a larger population compared to other West Asian regions, strengthening this claim.

Stable landings mask irreversible community reorganizations in an overexploited Mediterranean ecosystem.

Cumulative human pressures and climate change can induce nonlinear discontinuous dynamics in ecosystems, known as regime shifts. Regime shifts typically imply hysteresis, a lacking or delayed system response when pressures are reverted, which can frustrate restoration efforts. Here, we investigate whether the northern Adriatic Sea fish and macroinvertebrate community, as depicted by commercial fishery landings, has undergone regime shifts over the last 40 years, and the reversibility of such changes. We use a stochastic cusp model to show that, under the interactive effect of fishing pressure and water warming, the community reorganized through discontinuous changes. We found that part of the community has now reached a new stable state, implying that a recovery towards previous baselines might be impossible. Interestingly, total landings remained constant across decades, masking the low resilience of the community. Our study reveals the importance of carefully assessing regime shifts and resilience in marine ecosystems under cumulative pressures and advocates for their inclusion into management.

Uptake and translocation of perfluoroalkyl acids (PFAAs) in hydroponically grown red chicory (Cichorium intybus L.): Growth and developmental toxicity, comparison with growth in soil and bioavailability implications.

Short-chain perfluoroalkyl acids (PFAAs) have shown a high potential for plant (crop) uptake, making them possibly significant contributors to the total dietary exposure to PFAAs. The plant uptake of PFAAs is a complex process that needs better characterization, as it does not only depend on perfluoroalkyl chain length, but also on their polar terminal group, on the plant species and the exposure media. Here, a plant uptake study with nine perfluoroalkyl acids (PFAAs) was carried out under the hydroponic (soilless) exposure conditions. Red chicory was grown in a nutrient solution, spiked with PFAAs mixture at three different concentrations (i.e. 62.5, 125 and 250 µg/L), in order to extend the range of levels tested and reported in the literature so far. Bioaccumulation metrics and transpiration stream concentration factors (TSCFs) were employed for the plant uptake characterization and consequent comparison with the results of soil uptake experiment we previously performed with the same crop. The results showed that calculated root concentration factors (RCFs) increase with PFAA chain length, while the opposite chain length dependence was present for shoots. Plants from two treatments with the highest PFAAs concentrations manifested physiological changes (discoloration, inhibited roots and leaves growth), despite of the used exposure concentrations being much lower than previously published phytotoxicity thresholds. A comparison among RCFs and TSCFs derived from hydroponic and from the soil experiment has emphasized their different magnitudes and PFAAs chain length dependence patterns. They could not be ascribed only to soil sorption as a process decreasing PFAAs bioavailability for plants, but also to developmental differences between the root systems formed in soil and in nutrient solution and to the potential competitive PFAAs sorption to roots in hydroponics. The interchangeable use of bioaccumulation and translocation parameters derived in hydroponic and soil systems would lead to erroneous conclusions and plant uptake predictions.

Uptake and translocation of perfluoroalkyl acids (PFAA) in red chicory (Cichorium intybus L.) under various treatments with pre-contaminated soil and irrigation water.

Perfluoroalkyl acids (PFAAs), particularly short-chained ones, have high potential for crop uptake, posing a threat to human health in contaminated areas. There is a scarcity of studies using contaminated water as the medium for PFAAs delivery to crops, and a lack of data on the partitioning of PFAA mixtures in growing media. In this context, a controlled experimental study was carried out in a greenhouse to investigate the uptake of a PFAA mixture into red chicory, a typical crop from a major PFAA contamination hot-spot in northern Italy, under treatments with environmentally relevant concentrations in spiked irrigation water and soil, separately and simultaneously. To our knowledge, this is the first study involving multiple exposure media and laboratory adsorption/desorption batch tests as a way of assessing the decrease in the bioavailability of PFAAs from soil. Exposure concentrations for each of the 9 utilized PFAAs were 0, 1, 10 and 80 µg/L in irrigation water and 0, 100 and 200 ng/gdw in soil, combined into 12 treatments. The highest bioaccumulation was measured for PFBA in roots (maximum of 43 µg/gdw), followed by leaves and heads of the chicory plants in all treatments, with the concentrations exponentially decreasing with an increasing PFAA chain length in all plant compartments. The use of irrigation water as the delivery medium increased the transport of PFAAs to the aerial chicory parts, long-chain substances in particular. Additionally, the distribution of PFAAs in the soil was assessed by depth and compared with laboratory measured soil-water equilibrium partition coefficients, revealing only partial dependency of PFAAs bioavailability on the adsorption in soil.

Oxygen supersaturation protects coastal marine fauna from ocean warming.

Ocean warming affects the life history and fitness of marine organisms by, among others, increasing animal metabolism and reducing oxygen availability. In coastal habitats, animals live in close association with photosynthetic organisms whose oxygen supply supports metabolic demands and may compensate for acute warming. Using a unique high-frequency monitoring dataset, we show that oxygen supersaturation resulting from photosynthesis closely parallels sea temperature rise during diel cycles in Red Sea coastal habitats. We experimentally demonstrate that oxygen supersaturation extends the survival to more extreme temperatures of six species from four phyla. We clarify the mechanistic basis of the extended thermal tolerance by showing that hyperoxia fulfills the increased metabolic demand at high temperatures. By modeling 1 year of water temperatures and oxygen concentrations, we predict that oxygen supersaturation from photosynthetic activity invariably fuels peak animal metabolic demand, representing an underestimated factor of resistance and resilience to ocean warming in ectotherms.

Deriving predicted no-effect concentrations (PNECs) for emerging contaminants in the river Po, Italy, using three approaches: Assessment factor, species sensitivity distribution and AQUATOX ecosystem modelling.

Over the past decades, per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) found in environmental matrices worldwide have raised concerns due to their toxicity, ubiquity and persistence. A widespread pollution of groundwater and surface waters caused by PFASs in Northern Italy has been recently discovered, becoming a major environmental issue, also because the exact risk for humans and nature posed by this contamination is unclear. Here, the Po River in Northern Italy was selected as a study area to assess the ecological risk posed by perfluoroalkyl acids (PFAAs), a class of PFASs, considering the noticeable concentration of various PFAAs detected in the Po waters over the past years. Moreover, the Po has a large environmental and socio-economic importance: it is the largest Italian river and drains a densely inhabited, intensely cultivated and heavily industrialized watershed. Predicted no-effect concentrations (PNECs) were derived using two regulated methodologies, assessment factors (AFs) and species sensitivity distribution (SSD), which rely on published ecotoxicological laboratory tests. Results were compared to those of a novel methodology using the mechanistic ecosystem model AQUATOX to compute PNECs in an ecologically-sound manner, i.e. considering physical, chemical, biological and ecological processes in the river. The model was used to quantify how the biomasses of the modelled taxa in the river food web deviated from natural conditions due to varying inputs of the chemicals. PNEC for each chemical was defined as the lowest chemical concentration causing a non-negligible yearly biomass loss for a simulated taxon with respect to a control simulation. The investigated PFAAs were Perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and Perfluorooctanesulfonic acid (PFOS) as long-chained compounds, and Perfluorobutanoic acid (PFBA) and Perfluorobutanesulfonic acid (PFBS) as short-chained homologues. Two emerging contaminants, Linear Alkylbenzene Sulfonate (LAS) and triclosan, were also studied to assess the performance of the three methodologies for chemicals whose ecotoxicology and environmental fate are well-studied. The most precautionary approach was the use of AFs generally followed by SSD and then AQUATOX, except for PFOS, for which AQUATOX yielded a much lower PNEC compared to the other approaches since, unlike the other two methodologies, it explicitly simulates sublethal toxicity and indirect ecological effects. Our findings highlight that neglecting the role of ecological processes when extrapolating from laboratory tests to ecosystems can result in under-protective threshold concentrations for chemicals. Ecosystem models can complement existing laboratory-based methodologies, and the use of multiple methods for deriving PNECs can help to clarify uncertainty in ecological risk estimates.

Use of digestate from a decentralized on-farm biogas plant as fertilizer in soils: An ecotoxicological study for future indicators in risk and life cycle assessment.

Over the last decade, the number of decentralized farm biogas plants has increased significantly in the EU. This development leads not only to an increasing amount of biogas produced, but also to a higher amount of digestate obtained. One of the most attractive options to manage the digestate is to apply it as biofertiliser to the soil, because this gives the opportunity of recovering the nutrients, primarily nitrogen and phosphorus, and of attenuating the loss of organic matter suffered by soils under agricultural exploitation. Studies have claimed that digestates can present a residual biodegradability, and contain complex organic elements, salts or pathogenic bacteria that can damage terrestrial organisms. However few ecotoxicological studies have been performed to evaluate the ecological impact of digestate application on soil. In this study, the use of digestate as biofertiliser in agriculture was assessed by a battery of ecotoxicological tests considering the potential pollutants present in the digestate as a whole by using the "matrix-based" approach (also known as "whole effluent toxicity" for eluates or wastewater effluents). The direct and indirect tests included plant bioassays with Lepidium sativum, earthworm bioassays with Eisenia fetida, aquatic organisms (Artemia sp. and Daphnia magna) and luminescent bacteria bioassays (Vibrio fischeri). Direct tests occurred to be more sensitive than indirect tests. The earthworm bioassays did not show serious negative effects for concentrations up to 15% (dry weight/dry weight percent, w/w dm) and the plant bioassays showed no negative effect, but rather a positive one for concentrations lower than 20% (w/w dm), which encourages the use of digestate as a biofertiliser in agriculture provided that proper concentrations are used. The indirect tests, on the eluate, with the using aquatic organisms and luminescent bacteria showed an LC50 value of 13.61% volume/volume percent, v/v) for D. magna and no toxicity for Artemia sp. and V. fischeri. The ecotoxicological parameters obtained from the experimental activity have been analyzed so that they could serve in both ecological risk assessment (ERA) and life cycle assessment (LCA) to assess the risks and impacts of using digestate as a biofertiliser in agriculture. An interim effect factor of 1.17E-3m(3)/kg-in-soil is advocated and can be used in life cycle impact assessment modelling of terrestrial ecotoxicity. A predicted non effect concentration for soil organisms was defined at 341 mg-digestate/kg-soil and can be used for the dose-response assessment step in ERA. Although these values are recommended for use in ERA and LCA applications, it should be stressed that they underlie important uncertainties, which should be reduced by increasing the number of toxicological tests, in particular of chronic studies conducted at different trophic levels.

Food web modeling of a river ecosystem for risk assessment of down-the-drain chemicals: a case study with AQUATOX.

Conventional approaches to estimating protective ecotoxicological thresholds of chemicals, i.e. predicted no-effect concentrations (PNEC), for an entire ecosystem are based on the use of assessment factors to extrapolate from single-species toxicity data derived in the laboratory to community-level effects on ecosystems. Aquatic food web models may be a useful tool to improve the ecological realism of chemical risk assessment because they enable a more insightful evaluation of the fate and effects of chemicals in dynamic trophic networks. A case study was developed in AQUATOX to simulate the effects of the anionic surfactant linear alkylbenzene sulfonate and the antimicrobial triclosan on a lowland riverine ecosystem. The model was built for a section of the River Thames (UK), for which detailed ecological surveys were available, allowing for a quantification of energy flows through the whole ecosystem. A control scenario was successfully calibrated for a simulation period of one year, and tested for stability over six years. Then, the model ecosystem was perturbed with varying inputs of the two chemicals. Simulations showed that both chemicals rapidly approach steady-state, with internal concentrations in line with the input bioconcentration factors throughout the year. At realistic environmental concentrations, both chemicals have insignificant effects on biomass trends. At hypothetical higher concentrations, direct and indirect effects of chemicals on the ecosystem dynamics emerged from the simulations. Indirect effects due to competition for food sources and predation can lead to responses in biomass density of the same magnitude as those caused by direct toxicity. Indirect effects can both exacerbate or compensate for direct toxicity. Uncertainties in key model assumptions are high as the validation of perturbed simulations remains extremely challenging. Nevertheless, the study is a step towards the development of realistic ecological scenarios and their potential use in prospective risk assessment of down-the-drain chemicals.

Phytoplankton dynamics in the Gulf of Aqaba (Eilat, Red Sea): a simulation study of mariculture effects.

The northern Gulf of Aqaba is an oligotrophic water body hosting valuable coral reefs. In the Gulf, phytoplankton dynamics are driven by an annual cycle of stratification and mixing. Superimposed on that fairly regular pattern was the establishment of a shallow-water fish-farm initiative that increased gradually until its activity was terminated in June 2008. Nutrient, water temperature, irradiation, phytoplankton data gathered in the area during the years 2007-2009, covering the peak of the fish-farm activity and its cessation, were analyzed by means of statistical analyses and ecological models of phytoplankton dynamics. Two datasets, one from an open water station and one next to the fish farms, were used. Results show that nutrient concentrations and, consequently, phytoplankton abundance and seasonal succession were radically altered by the pollution originating from the fish-farm in the sampling station closer to it, and also that the fish-farm might even have influenced the open water station.

Improved heat tolerance in air drives the recurrent evolution of air-breathing.

The transition to air-breathing by formerly aquatic species has occurred repeatedly and independently in fish, crabs and other animal phyla, but the proximate drivers of this key innovation remain a long-standing puzzle in evolutionary biology. Most studies attribute the onset of air-breathing to the repeated occurrence of aquatic hypoxia; however, this hypothesis leaves the current geographical distribution of the 300 genera of air-breathing crabs unexplained. Here, we show that their occurrence is mainly related to high environmental temperatures in the tropics. We also demonstrate in an amphibious crab that the reduced cost of oxygen supply in air extends aerobic performance to higher temperatures and thus widens the animal's thermal niche. These findings suggest that high water temperature as a driver consistently explains the numerous times air-breathing has evolved. The data also indicate a central role for oxygen- and capacity-limited thermal tolerance not only in shaping sensitivity to current climate change but also in underpinning the climate-dependent evolution of animals, in this case the evolution of air-breathing.

Biopotentiality as an index of environmental compensation for composting plants.

The Biopotentiality Index is a landscape ecology indicator, which can be used to estimate the latent energy of a given land and to assess the environmental impacts due to the loss of naturalness on a landscape scale. This indicator has been applied to estimate the effectiveness of the measures put in place to provide an environmental compensation for the revamping of a composting plant. These compensation measures are represented by a green belt with a minimum width of 25 m all around the plant, representing both a windbreak and a buffer zone, and by two wide wooded zones acting as core natural areas. This case-study shows that the compensation index could be used as a key tool in order to negotiate the acceptance of waste treatment plant with the population.

Climate change reduces offspring fitness in littoral spawners: a study integrating organismic response and long-term time-series.

Integrating long-term ecological observations with experimental findings on species response and tolerance to environmental stress supports an understanding of climate effects on population dynamics. Here, we combine the two approaches, laboratory experiments and analysis of multi-decadal time-series, to understand the consequences of climate anomalies and ongoing change for the population dynamics of a eurythermal littoral species, Carcinus aestuarii. For the generation of cause and effect hypotheses we investigated the thermal response of crab embryos at four developmental stages. We first measured metabolic rate variations in embryos following acute warming (16-24 °C) and after incubation at 20 and 24 °C for limited periods. All experiments consistently revealed differential thermal responses depending on the developmental stage. Temperature-induced changes in metabolic activity of early embryonic stages of blastula and gastrula suggested the onset of abnormal development. In contrast, later developmental stages, characterized by tissue and organ differentiation, were marginally affected by temperature anomalies, indicating enhanced resilience to thermal stress. Then, we extended these findings to a larger, population scale, by analyzing a time-series of C. aestuarii landings in the Venice lagoon from 1945 to 2010 (ripe crabs were recorded separately) in relation to temperature. Landings and extreme climatic events showed marked long-term and short-term variations. We found negative relationships between landings and thermal stress indices on both timescales, with time lags consistent with an impact on crab early life stages. When quantitatively evaluating the influence of thermal stress on population dynamics, we found that it has a comparable effect to that of the biomass of spawners. This work provides strong evidence that physiological responses to climatic anomalies translate into population-level changes and that apparently tolerant species may be impacted before the ontogeny of eurythermy. These ontogenetic bottlenecks markedly shape population dynamics and require study to assess the effects of global change.

Making robust policy decisions using global biodiversity indicators.

In order to influence global policy effectively, conservation scientists need to be able to provide robust predictions of the impact of alternative policies on biodiversity and measure progress towards goals using reliable indicators. We present a framework for using biodiversity indicators predictively to inform policy choices at a global level. The approach is illustrated with two case studies in which we project forwards the impacts of feasible policies on trends in biodiversity and in relevant indicators. The policies are based on targets agreed at the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) meeting in Nagoya in October 2010. The first case study compares protected area policies for African mammals, assessed using the Red List Index; the second example uses the Living Planet Index to assess the impact of a complete halt, versus a reduction, in bottom trawling. In the protected areas example, we find that the indicator can aid in decision-making because it is able to differentiate between the impacts of the different policies. In the bottom trawling example, the indicator exhibits some counter-intuitive behaviour, due to over-representation of some taxonomic and functional groups in the indicator, and contrasting impacts of the policies on different groups caused by trophic interactions. Our results support the need for further research on how to use predictive models and indicators to credibly track trends and inform policy. To be useful and relevant, scientists must make testable predictions about the impact of global policy on biodiversity to ensure that targets such as those set at Nagoya catalyse effective and measurable change.