RESUMO
The potential for oilfield activities to trigger earthquakes in seismogenic areas has been hotly debated. Our model compares the stress changes from remote water injection and a natural earthquake, both of which occurred in northern Italy in recent years, and their potential effects on a nearby Mw 5.9 earthquake that occurred in 2012. First, we calculate the Coulomb stress from 20 years of fluid injection in a nearby oilfield by using a poroelastic model. Then, we compute the stress changes for a 2011 Mw 4.5 earthquake that occurred close to the area of the 2012 mainshock. We found that anthropogenic activities produced an effect that was less than 10% of that generated by the Mw 4.5 earthquake. Therefore, the 2012 earthquake was likely associated with a natural stress increase. The probability of triggering depends on the magnitude of recent earthquakes, the amount of injected water, the distance from an event, and the proximity to the failure of the activated fault. Determining changes that are associated with seismic hazards requires poroelastic area-specific models that include both tectonic and anthropogenic activities. This comprehensive approach is particularly important when assessing the risk of triggered seismicity near densely populated areas.
RESUMO
The present work focuses on the postseismic deformation observed in the region of L'Aquila (central Italy) following the Mw 6.3 earthquake that occurred on April 6, 2009. A new, 16-month-long dataset of COSMO-SkyMed SAR images was analysed using the Persistent Scatterer Pairs interferometric technique. The analysis revealed the existence of postseismic ground subsidence in the mountainous rocky area of Mt Ocre ridge, contiguous to the sedimentary plain that experienced coseismic subsidence. The postseismic subsidence was characterized by displacements of 10 to 35 mm along the SAR line of sight. In the Mt Ocre ridge, widespread morphological elements associated with gravitational spreading have been previously mapped. We tested the hypothesis that the postseismic subsidence of the Mt Ocre ridge compensates the loss of equilibrium induced by the nearby coseismic subsidence. Therefore, we simulated the coseismic and postseismic displacement fields via the finite element method. We included the gravitational load and fault slip and accounted for the geometrical and rheological characteristics of the area. We found that the elastoplastic behaviour of the material under gravitational loading best explains the observed postseismic displacement. These findings emphasize the role of gravity in the postseismic processes at the fault scale.
