Spatial and seasonal group size variation of wild mammalian herbivores in multiple use landscapes of the Ngorongoro Conservation Area, Tanzania.

Group sizes of wild herbivores can be indicators of ecosystem health and proxies for individual and population fitness, particularly in areas where human activities have become increasingly common. We recorded 176 single- and multi-species groups of wild herbivores in human-dominated landscapes of the Ngorongoro Conservation Area (NCA) during dry and wet seasons. We analyzed how wild herbivore group sizes were affected by: (1) season, (2) distance to fully protected area (NCA crater) and to streams, (3) distance to human settlements, and (4) numbers of livestock. Group sizes were generally larger during the wet season than during the dry season and varied seasonally with distance to NCA crater, streams, and human settlements. During the wet season, larger groups were observed further away from the NCA crater whereas the opposite pattern was apparent during the dry season. Average wild herbivore group sizes increased by about three-fold with increasing distance from the streams during the dry season but were invariant to streams during the wet season. Furthermore, during the dry season, group sizes were larger close to settlements but varied little with distance to settlements during the wet season. While livestock presence did not directly affect wild herbivore group size, distance to settlements, streams and distance to the Ngorongoro crater in interaction with rainfall seasonality did. We conclude that the NCA crater functions as a key resource area for wild herbivores such as wildebeest (Connochaetes taurinus) and zebra (Equus quagga burchelli) during the dry season, highlighting the need for its full protection status in this Man and Biosphere reserve.

Rainfall trends and variation in the Maasai Mara ecosystem and their implications for animal population and biodiversity dynamics.

Rainfall exerts a controlling influence on the availability and quality of vegetation and surface water for herbivores in African terrestrial ecosystems. We analyse temporal trends and variation in rainfall in the Maasai Mara ecosystem of East Africa and infer their implications for animal population and biodiversity dynamics. The data originated from 15 rain gauges in the Mara region (1965-2015) and one station in Narok Town (1913-2015), in Kenya's Narok County. This is the first comprehensive and most detailed analysis of changes in rainfall in the region of its kind. Our results do not support the current predictions of the International Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) of very likely increases of rainfall over parts of Eastern Africa. The dry season rainfall component increased during 1935-2015 but annual rainfall decreased during 1962-2015 in Narok Town. Monthly rainfall was more stable and higher in the Mara than in Narok Town, likely because the Mara lies closer to the high-precipitation areas along the shores of Lake Victoria. Predominantly deterministic and persistent inter-annual cycles and extremely stable seasonal rainfall oscillations characterize rainfall in the Mara and Narok regions. The frequency of severe droughts increased and floods intensified in the Mara but droughts became less frequent and less severe in Narok Town. The timings of extreme droughts and floods coincided with significant periodicity in rainfall oscillations, implicating strong influences of global atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns on regional rainfall variability. These changing rainfall patterns have implications for animal population dynamics. The increase in dry season rainfall during 1935-2015 possibly counterbalanced the impacts of resource scarcity generated by the declining annual rainfall during 1965-2015 in Narok Town. However, the increasing rainfall extremes in the Mara can be expected to create conditions conducive to outbreaks of infectious animal diseases and reduced vegetation quality for herbivores, particularly when droughts and floods persist over multiple years. The more extreme wet season rainfall may also alter herbivore space use, including migration patterns.