Modeling the factors that influence exposure to SARS-CoV-2 on a subway train carriage.

We propose the Transmission of Virus in Carriages (TVC) model, a computational model which simulates the potential exposure to SARS-CoV-2 for passengers traveling in a subway rail system train. This model considers exposure through three different routes: fomites via contact with contaminated surfaces; close-range exposure, which accounts for aerosol and droplet transmission within 2 m of the infectious source; and airborne exposure via small aerosols which does not rely on being within 2 m distance from the infectious source. Simulations are based on typical subway parameters and the aim of the study is to consider the relative effect of environmental and behavioral factors including prevalence of the virus in the population, number of people traveling, ventilation rate, and mask wearing as well as the effect of model assumptions such as emission rates. Results simulate generally low exposures in most of the scenarios considered, especially under low virus prevalence. Social distancing through reduced loading and high mask-wearing adherence is predicted to have a noticeable effect on reducing exposure through all routes. The highest predicted doses happen through close-range exposure, while the fomite route cannot be neglected; exposure through both routes relies on infrequent events involving relatively few individuals. Simulated exposure through the airborne route is more homogeneous across passengers, but is generally lower due to the typically short duration of the trips, mask wearing, and the high ventilation rate within the carriage. The infection risk resulting from exposure is challenging to estimate as it will be influenced by factors such as virus variant and vaccination rates.

Preytaxis and Travelling Waves in an Eco-epidemiological Model.

Preytaxis is the attraction (or repulsion) of predators along prey density gradients and a potentially important mechanism for predator movement. However, the impact preytaxis has on the spatial spread of a predator invasion or of an epidemic within the prey has not been investigated. We investigate the effects preytaxis has on the wavespeed of several different invasion scenarios in an eco-epidemiological system. In general, preytaxis cannot slow down predator or disease invasions and there are scenarios where preytaxis speeds up predator or disease invasions. For example, in the absence of disease, attractive preytaxis results in an increased wavespeed of predators invading prey, whereas repulsive preytaxis has no effect on the wavespeed, but the wavefront is shallower. On top of this, repulsive preytaxis can induce spatiotemporal oscillations and/or chaos behind the invasion front, phenomena normally only seen when the (non-spatial) coexistence steady state is unstable. In the presence of disease, the predator wave can have a different response to attractive susceptible and attractive infected prey. In particular, we found a case where attractive infected prey increases the predators' wavespeed by a disproportionately large amount compared to attractive susceptible prey since a predator invasion has a larger impact on the infected population. When we consider a disease invading a predator-prey steady state, we found some counter-intuitive results. For example, the epidemic has an increased wavespeed when infected prey attract predators. Likewise, repulsive susceptible prey can also increase the infection wave's wavespeed. These results suggest that preytaxis can have a major effect on the interactions of predators, prey and diseases.

Livestock Disease Management for Trading Across Different Regulatory Regimes.

The maintenance of livestock health depends on the combined actions of many different actors, both within and across different regulatory frameworks. Prior work recognised that private risk management choices have the ability to reduce the spread of infection to trading partners. We evaluate the efficiency of farmers' alternative biosecurity choices in terms of their own-benefits from unilateral strategies and quantify the impact they may have in filtering the disease externality of trade. We use bovine viral diarrhoea (BVD) in England and Scotland as a case study, since this provides an example of a situation where contrasting strategies for BVD management occur between selling and purchasing farms. We use an agent-based bioeconomic model to assess the payoff dependence of farmers connected by trade but using different BVD management strategies. We compare three disease management actions: test-cull, test-cull with vaccination and vaccination alone. For a two-farm trading situation, all actions carried out by the selling farm provide substantial benefits to the purchasing farm in terms of disease avoided, with the greatest benefit resulting from test-culling with vaccination on the selling farm. Likewise, unilateral disease strategies by purchasers can be effective in reducing disease risks created through trade. We conclude that regulation needs to balance the trade-off between private gains from those bearing the disease management costs and the positive spillover effects on others.

Modelling the impact and control of an infectious disease in a plant nursery with infected plant material inputs.

The ornamental plant trade has been identified as a key introduction pathway for plant pathogens. Establishing effective biosecurity measures to reduce the risk of plant pathogen outbreaks in the live plant trade is therefore important. Management of invasive pathogens has been identified as a weakest link public good, and thus is reliant on the actions of individual private agents. This paper therefore provides an analysis of the impact of the private agents' biosecurity decisions on pathogen prevention and control within the plant trade. We model the impact that an infectious disease has on a plant nursery under a constant pressure of potentially infected input plant materials, like seeds and saplings, where the spread of the disease reduces the value of mature plants. We explore six scenarios to understand the influence of three key bioeconomic parameters; the disease's basic reproductive number, the loss in value of a mature plant from acquiring an infection and the cost-effectiveness of restriction. The results characterise the disease dynamics within the nursery and explore the trade-offs and synergies between the optimal level of efforts on restriction strategies (actions to prevent buying infected inputs), and on removal of infected plants in the nursery. For diseases that can be easily controlled, restriction and removal are substitutable strategies. In contrast, for highly infectious diseases, restriction and removal are often found to be complementary, provided that restriction is cost-effective and the optimal level of removal is non-zero.

Complex dynamics in an eco-epidemiological model.

The presence of infectious diseases can dramatically change the dynamics of ecological systems. By studying an SI-type disease in the predator population of a Rosenzweig-MacArthur model, we find a wealth of complex dynamics that do not exist in the absence of the disease. Numerical solutions indicate the existence of saddle-node and subcritical Hopf bifurcations, turning points and branching in periodic solutions, and a period-doubling cascade into chaos. This means that there are regions of bistability, in which the disease can have both a stabilising and destabilising effect. We also find tristability, which involves an endemic torus (or limit cycle), an endemic equilibrium and a disease-free limit cycle. The endemic torus seems to disappear via a homoclinic orbit. Notably, some of these dynamics occur when the basic reproduction number is less than one, and endemic situations would not be expected at all. The multistable regimes render the eco-epidemic system very sensitive to perturbations and facilitate a number of regime shifts, some of which we find to be irreversible.

Predator-prey oscillations can shift when diseases become endemic.

In epidemiology, knowing when a disease is endemic is important. This is usually done by finding the basic reproductive number, R(0), using equilibrium-based calculations. However, oscillatory dynamics are common in nature. Here, we model a disease with density dependent transmission in an oscillating predator-prey system. The condition for disease persistence in predator-prey cycles is based on the time-average density of the host and not the equilibrium density. Consequently, the time-averaged basic reproductive number R(0)¯ is what determines whether a disease is endemic, and not on the equilibrium-based basic reproductive number R(0)(*). These findings undermine any R(0) analysis based solely on steady states when predator-prey oscillations exist for density dependent diseases.

Rabbits protecting birds: Hypopredation and limitations of hyperpredation.

Biological invasions often damage island ecosystems. One such damaging consequence of biological invasions is hyperpredation. Hyperpredation is the increase in predation pressure from a generalist predator following the introduction of an alternative prey, typically a consequence of apparent competition between the two prey. Models for this have been devised that demonstrate this effect. However, hyperpredation may not always occur or may not always occur at the same strength. Here, we investigate how different mechanisms affect the magnitude of hyperpredation: (i) saturation of the predator's functional response, (ii) predator interference and (iii) non-predatory competition among predators. We find that all three mechanisms generally reduce hyperpredation. Predator saturation can actually overturn hyperpredation into hypopredation, an increase in native prey, as a result of apparent predation between the two prey. This occurs when the alternative prey is 'poisoned prey', i.e. prey that have a handling time cost greater than the nutritional benefit for the predator. Consuming 'poisoned prey' can result in an increase or decrease in predator density. Conversely, we also identify scenarios in which interference and competition may increase hyperpredation. Based on these insights, we conclude that the invasion of established ecosystems by non-native prey can lead to more diverse consequences than previously thought. Potential control measures should take these effects into account.