Optimizing therapy in primary biliary cholangitis: Alkaline phosphatase at six months identifies one-year non-responders and predicts survival.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) and insufficient response to ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA), currently assessed after 1 year, are candidates for second-line therapy. The aims of this study are to assess biochemical response pattern and determine the utility of alkaline phosphatase (ALP) at six months as a predictor of insufficient response. METHODS: UDCA-treated patients in the GLOBAL PBC database with available liver biochemistries at one year were included. POISE criteria were used to assess response to treatment, defined as ALP <1.67 × upper limit of normal (ULN) and normal total bilirubin at one year. Various thresholds of ALP at six months were evaluated to predict insufficient response based on negative predictive value (NPV) and that with nearest to 90% NPV was selected. RESULTS: For the study, 1362 patients were included, 1232 (90.5%) female, mean age of 54 years. The POISE criteria were met by 56.4% (n = 768) of patients at one year. The median ALP (IQR) of those who met POISE criteria compared to those who did not was 1.05 × ULN (0.82-1.33) vs. 2.37 × ULN (1.72-3.69) at six months (p < .001). Of 235 patients with serum ALP >1.9 × ULN at six months, 89% did not achieve POISE criteria (NPV) after one year of UDCA. Of those with insufficient response by POISE criteria at one year, 210 (67%) had an ALP >1.9 × ULN at six months and thus would have been identified early. CONCLUSIONS: We can identify patients for second-line therapy at six months using an ALP threshold of 1.9 × ULN, given that approximately 90% of these patients are non-responders according to POISE criteria.

Severe azathioprine-induced liver injury 22 months after initiation of treatment.

Drug-induced liver injury (DILI) is the leading cause of acute liver failure in high-income countries. Acute cholestasis is one of the most common forms of hepatotoxicity induced by azathioprine. It usually begins during the first year of treatment, with most cases reported during the first month. We describe an uncommon case of DILI that occurred after 22 months of drug administration. A woman in her 50s was hospitalised because of jaundice and asthenia. She had been treated with azathioprine for myasthenia gravis during the last 2 years. Acute cholestatic injury was diagnosed. After ruling out most common causes of cholestasis, azathioprine was withdrawn and subsequent histological findings in liver biopsy were consistent with drug-induced cholestatic liver damage. After discontinuation of azathioprine, biochemical parameters progressively normalised and remarkable clinical improvement was achieved. With this report, we suggest that azathioprine should be considered among the causes of liver injury, despite long treatment duration.

Greater Transplant-Free Survival in Patients Receiving Obeticholic Acid for Primary Biliary Cholangitis in a Clinical Trial Setting Compared to Real-World External Controls.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The Primary Biliary Cholangitis (PBC) Obeticholic Acid (OCA) International Study of Efficacy (POISE) randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial demonstrated that OCA reduced biomarkers associated with adverse clinical outcomes (ie, alkaline phosphatase, bilirubin, aspartate aminotransferase, and alanine aminotransferase) in patients with PBC. The objective of this study was to evaluate time to first occurrence of liver transplantation or death in patients with OCA in the POISE trial and open-label extension vs comparable non-OCA-treated external controls. METHODS: Propensity scores were generated for external control patients meeting POISE eligibility criteria from 2 registry studies (Global PBC and UK-PBC) using an index date selected randomly between the first and last date (inclusive) on which eligibility criteria were met. Cox proportional hazards models weighted by inverse probability of treatment assessed time to death or liver transplantation. Additional analyses (Global PBC only) added hepatic decompensation to the composite end point and assessed efficacy in patients with or without cirrhosis. RESULTS: During the 6-year follow-up, there were 5 deaths or liver transplantations in 209 subjects in the POISE cohort (2.4%), 135 of 1381 patients in the Global PBC control (10.0%), and 281 of 2135 patients in the UK-PBC control (13.2%). The hazard ratios (HRs) for the primary outcome were 0.29 (95% CI, 0.10-0.83) for POISE vs Global PBC and 0.30 (95% CI, 0.12-0.75) for POISE vs UK-PBC. In the Global PBC study, HR was 0.20 (95% CI, 0.03-1.22) for patients with cirrhosis and 0.31 (95% CI, 0.09-1.04) for those without cirrhosis; HR was 0.42 (95% CI, 0.21-0.85) including hepatic decompensation. CONCLUSIONS: Patients treated with OCA in a trial setting had significantly greater transplant-free survival than comparable external control patients.

Directly acting antivirals are safe and effective in HCV positive patients aged 80 years and older: a multicenter real-life study.

Background: Treatment of chronic Hepatitis C with directly acting antivirals (DAAs) can bring to sustained virologic response (SVR) in approximately 95% of patients. Efficacy and safety of DAAs in aging patients has not been widely analyzed. We aimed to determine safety and efficacy of DAA-based regimens in a cohort of elderly patients in a real-life setting.Research Design and Methods: We retrospectively investigated safety and efficacy of DAAs in HCV patients of 80 years or older treated in three Hepatology Units.Results and Expert opinion: During the study period, 170 patients older than 80 years received DAAs. Their mean age was 82,3 years. The predominant HCV genotype was 1 (100 patients, 59%). Among the 93 cirrhotic patients (54,7%), 18 had CPT score > A5. Different DAAs regimens were used. Concomitant drugs were common: 163 patients (95,8%) taking at least one drug. In 11 patients, usual therapy had to be changed to start antiviral treatment. Two serious adverse events occurred. Four patients terminated treatment prematurely. In total, 45 patients (26,5%) testified mild side effects. HCV-RNA undetectability at week 12 of treatment follow-up was achieved in 168/170 patients. DAA treatment in HCV patients of 80 years or older is efficacious and safe. Drug-drug interaction should be judiciously evaluated before starting therapy.

CA.ME.LI.A. An epidemiological study on the prevalence of CArdiovascular, MEtabolic, LIver and Autoimmune diseases in Northern Italy.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: CA.ME.LI.A (CArdiovascular risks, MEtabolic syndrome, LIver and Autoimmune disease) is a cross-sectional, epidemiological study performed between 2009-2011 in Abbiategrasso (Milan, Italy) to estimate the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors, metabolic syndrome, liver and autoimmune diseases in the general adult population. This report focuses on the description and presentation of baseline characteristics of the population. METHODS AND RESULTS: Citizens were randomly selected from the city electoral registers (n = 30903), yielding a sample of 2554 subjects (M = 1257, F = 1297; age, 47 ± 15 yrs; range 18-77 yrs). Men had higher prevalence of overweight or obesity (60.8% vs 41.6%; p < 0.0001) and greater thickness of visceral adipose tissue (40 ± 19 vs 27 ± 17 mm; p < 0.0001); no gender difference was found in subcutaneous adipose tissue thickness. Men also showed higher levels of serum triglycerides, γ-GT, fasting blood glucose, insulin and Homa-IR Index, while HDL, CRP, and prevalence of elevated (>5.0 mg/L) CRP were lower. Compared to normal weight men, risk-ratio (RR) of CRP elevation was 1.32 (ns) in overweight and 2.68 (p < 0.0001) in obese subjects. The corresponding figures in females were 2.68 (p < 0.0001) and 5.18 (p < 0.0001). Metabolic syndrome was more frequent in men (32.7% vs 14.5%; RR: 2.24, p < 0.0001). Interadventitia common carotid artery diameter was higher in men and increased with age and BMI. CONCLUSIONS: The present study reports on the overall characteristics of a large population from Northern Italy. It aims to identify the associations among cardiovascular risk factors to prevent their development and progression, improve healthy lifestyle and identify subjects liable to pharmacological interventions.

Measurement of Gamma Glutamyl Transferase to Determine Risk of Liver Transplantation or Death in Patients With Primary Biliary Cholangitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT) is a serum marker of cholestasis. We investigated whether serum level of GGT is a prognostic marker for patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). METHODS: We analyzed data from patients with PBC from the Global PBC Study Group, comprising 14 centers in Europe and North America. We obtained measurements of serum GGT at baseline and time points after treatment. We used Cox model hazard ratios to evaluate the association between GGT and clinical outcomes, including liver transplantation and liver-related death. RESULTS: Of the 2129 patients included in our analysis, 281 (13%) had a liver-related clinical endpoint. Mean age at diagnosis was 53 years and 91% of patients were female patients. We found a correlation between serum levels of GGT and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) (r = 0.71). Based on data collected at baseline and yearly for up to 5 years, higher serum levels of GGT were associated with lower hazard for transplant-free survival. Serum level of GGT at 12 months after treatment higher than 3.2-fold the upper limit of normal (ULN) identified patients who required liver transplantation or with liver-related death at 10 years with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.70. The risk of liver transplantation or liver-related death in patients with serum level of GGT above 3.2-fold the ULN, despite level of ALP lower than 1.5-fold the ULN, was higher compared to patients with level of GGT lower than 3.2-fold the ULN and level of ALP lower than 1.5-fold the ULN (P < .05). Including information on level of GGT increased the prognostic value of the Globe score. CONCLUSIONS: Serum level of GGT can be used to identify patients with PBC at risk for liver transplantation or death, and increase the prognostic value of ALP measurement. Our findings support the use of GGT as primary clinical endpoint in clinical trials. In patients with low serum level of ALP, a high level of GGT identifies those who might require treatment of metabolic disorders or PBC treatment escalation.

Simplified care-pathway selection for nonspecialist practice: the GLOBAL Primary Biliary Cholangitis Study Group Age, Bilirubin, Alkaline phosphatase risk assessment tool.

BACKGROUND: Opportunity to redefine the care journeys for those living with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) includes facilitating access to enhanced (PBC-dedicated) programmes by nonspecialist risk 'flagging' of patients. OBJECTIVE: To develop a nonexpert PBC stratification tool to help care pathway choices (standard vs. enhanced) choices in PBC. METHODS: We included ursodeoxycholic acid-treated patients with PBC from the Global PBC Study Group. The performance of baseline and 1-year clinical markers with transplant-free survival was assessed to develop the 'ABA' tool using Age (A), Bilirubin (B), and Alkaline phosphatase (A). Added value of fibrosis estimation was assessed. RESULTS: 'ABA' classification mapped three risk groups (n = 2226): low [Age > 50 years, bilirubin ≤ 1 × ULN, alkaline phosphatase (ALP) ≤ 3 × ULN], high (Age ≤ 50 years, bilirubin > 1 × ULN, ALP > 3 × ULN), and intermediate (other). Transplant-free survival at 10 years in the low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups were 89, 77, and 59% at baseline and 86, 76, and 40% at 1 year, respectively. We propose that high-risk patients at baseline be directly triaged to enhanced (PBC-dedicated) care and the remaining be reassessed at 1 year. Modelling showed after 1 year 46% patients were proposed to enhanced care and 54% to standard care. The 'ABA' mapped pathways facilitated identification of patients at risk based on a young age, as compared to traditional liver biochemical stratification. In patients proposed to standard care, estimated fibrosis stage had ongoing prognostic value. CONCLUSION: Nonspecialist use of the 'ABA' risk tool could prioritize care journey choices for patients with PBC.

Goals of Treatment for Improved Survival in Primary Biliary Cholangitis: Treatment Target Should Be Bilirubin Within the Normal Range and Normalization of Alkaline Phosphatase.

INTRODUCTION: In primary biliary cholangitis (PBC), bilirubin and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) are widely established as independent predictors of prognosis. Current treatment goals do not aim for normalization of surrogate markers because their association with survival has not been defined. METHODS: The patient cohort from the GLOBAL PBC Study Group was used, comprising of long-term follow-up data from European and North American centers. Ursodeoxycholic acid-treated and untreated patients with bilirubin levels ≤1 × upper limit of normal (ULN) at baseline or 1 year were included. The association of normal ALP with transplant-free survival was assessed in a subgroup with ALP ≤1.67 × ULN at 1 year. Optimal thresholds of bilirubin and ALP to predict liver transplantation (LT) or death were evaluated. RESULTS: There were 2,281 patients included in the time zero cohort and 2,555 patients in the 1-year cohort. The bilirubin threshold with the highest ability to predict LT or death at 1 year was 0.6 × ULN (hazard ratio 2.12, 95% CI 1.69-2.66, P < 0.001). The 10-year survival rates of patients with bilirubin ≤0.6 × ULN and >0.6 × ULN were 91.3% and 79.2%, respectively (P < 0.001). The risk for LT or death was stable below the bilirubin levels of 0.6 × ULN, yet increased beyond this threshold. Ursodeoxycholic acid-induced reduction in bilirubin below this threshold was associated with an 11% improvement in 10-year survival. Furthermore, ALP normalization was optimal, with 10-year survival rates of 93.2% in patients with ALP ≤ 1 × ULN and 86.1% in those with ALP 1.0-1.67 × ULN. DISCUSSION: Attaining bilirubin levels ≤0.6 × ULN or normal ALP are associated with the lowest risk for LT or death in patients with PBC. This has important implications for treatment targets.

Factors Associated With Progression and Outcomes of Early Stage Primary Biliary Cholangitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Patients usually receive a diagnosis of primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) at an early stage, based on biochemical analyses. We investigated the proportion of patients who progress to moderate or advanced PBC and factors associated with progression and patient survival. METHODS: We obtained data from 1615 patients (mean age, 55.4 y) with early stage PBC (based on their normal levels of albumin and bilirubin), collected at the time of initial evaluation or treatment, from the Global PBC Study Group database (comprising patients at 19 liver centers in North American and European countries). We collected data from health care evaluations on progression to moderate PBC (abnormal level of bilirubin or albumin) or advanced-stage PBC (abnormal level of both). The median follow-up time was 7.9 years. The composite end point was decompensation, hepatocellular carcinoma, liver transplantation, or death. RESULTS: Of the 1615 patients identified with early stage PBC, 904 developed moderate PBC and 201 developed advanced disease over the study period. The proportions of patients who transitioned to moderate PBC at 1, 3, and 5 years were 12.9%, 30.2%, and 45.8%. The proportions of these patients who then transitioned to advanced PBC at 1, 3, and 5 years later were 3.4%, 12.5%, and 16.0%, respectively. During the follow-up period, 236 patients had a clinical event. The proportions of patients with moderate PBC and event-free survival were 97.9%, 95.1%, and 91.5% at 1, 3, and 5 years, respectively, and the proportions of patients with advanced PBC and event-free survival were 90.6%, 71.2%, and 58.3% at 1, 3, and 5 years later, respectively. Variables associated with transition from early to moderate PBC included baseline levels of bilirubin, albumin, and alkaline phosphatase; aspartate to alanine aminotransferase ratio; platelet count; and treatment with ursodeoxycholic acid. Transitions from early to moderate PBC and from moderate to advanced PBC were associated with higher probabilities of a clinical event (time-dependent hazard ratios, 3.0; 95% CI, 2.0-4.5; and 4.6; 95% CI, 3.5-6.2). CONCLUSIONS: Approximately half of patients with early stage PBC progress to a more severe stage within 5 years. Progression is associated with an increased risk of a clinical event, so surveillance is important for patients with early stage PBC.

Number needed to treat with ursodeoxycholic acid therapy to prevent liver transplantation or death in primary biliary cholangitis.

OBJECTIVE: The clinical benefit of ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) has never been reported in absolute measures. The aim of this study was to assess the number needed to treat (NNT) with UDCA to prevent liver transplantation (LT) or death among patients with PBC. METHODS: The NNT was calculated based on the untreated LT-free survival and HR of UDCA with respect to LT or death as derived from inverse probability of treatment weighting-adjusted Cox proportional hazard analyses within the Global PBC Study Group database. RESULTS: We included 3902 patients with a median follow-up of 7.8 (4.1-12.1) years. The overall HR of UDCA was 0.46 (95% CI 0.40 to 0.52) and the 5-year LT-free survival without UDCA was 81% (95% CI 79 to 82). The NNT to prevent one LT or death within 5 years (NNT5y) was 11 (95% CI 9 to 13). Although the HR of UDCA was similar for patients with and without cirrhosis (0.33 vs 0.31), the NNT5y was 4 (95% CI 3 to 5) and 20 (95% CI 14 to 34), respectively. Among patients with low alkaline phosphatase (ALP) (≤2× the upper limit of normal (ULN)), intermediate ALP (2-4× ULN) and high ALP (>4× ULN), the NNT5y to prevent one LT or death was 26 (95% CI 15 to 70), 11 (95% CI 8 to 17) and 5 (95% CI 4 to 8), respectively. CONCLUSION: The absolute clinical efficacy of UDCA with respect to LT or death varied with baseline prognostic characteristics, but was high throughout. These findings strongly emphasise the incentive to promptly initiate UDCA treatment in all patients with PBC and may improve patient compliance.

Anti-phospholipid antibody prevalence and association with subclinical atherosclerosis and atherothrombosis in the general population.

BACKGROUND: There is no agreement on the prevalence of anti-phospholipid antibodies (aPLs) and the correlation with atherosclerosis and cardiovascular (CV) events in the general population. METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional study on 1712 randomly enrolled subjects from a Northern Italian city to investigate the presence of aPLs and the association with subclinical atherosclerosis (using the carotid artery intima media thickness measured as inter-adventitia common carotid artery diameters - ICCAD) and retrospectively collected CV factors and events (i.e. acute myocardial infarction, stroke, and peripheral obliterans arterial vasculopathy) using physician-assisted questionnaires. We tested serum IgG, IgM, and IgA anti-cardiolipin, anti-beta2glycoprotein I (aGPI), and anti-phosphatidylserine-prothrombin antibodies. RESULTS: Positive aPLs were found in 15.1% of the subjects, with no differences between sex but with higher rates in older subjects. Carotid subclinical atherosclerosis was more frequent in aPL positive subjects; more specifically, aGPI IgA were associated with higher ICCAD average (adjusted beta 0.51, 95% confidence interval (CI)0.17-0.84; p = 0.003). A positive history of CV events was also more frequent in aPL positive subjects (odds ratio (OR) 1.67, 95%CI 1.08-2.54; p = 0.012), particularly peripheral obliterans arterial vasculopathy (OR 2.02; 95%CI 1.14-3.57; p = 0.015). Among subjects with a Framingham risk score >20, and/or diabetes, and/or body mass index >35 kg/m2, aPL positivity was associated to the highest risk of CV events (OR 2.52, 95%CI 1.24-5.11; p = 0.011). CONCLUSIONS: APL prevalence in the general population is higher than previously reported. CV events and subclinical atherosclerosis are more frequent in the presence of aPL, particularly when a high CV risk coexists.

Ursodeoxycholic acid therapy and liver transplant-free survival in patients with primary biliary cholangitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The clinical efficacy of ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) remains subject to debate as definitive randomized controlled trials are lacking. We aimed to determine whether UDCA prolongs liver transplant (LT)-free survival in patients with PBC. METHODS: This international cohort study included patients from the Global PBC Study Group database, originating from 8 countries in Europe and North America. Both UDCA-treated and untreated patients were included. LT and death were assessed as a combined endpoint through Cox regression analyses, with inverse probability treatment weighting (IPTW). RESULTS: In the 3,902 patients included, the mean (SD) age was 54.3 (11.9) years, 3,552 patients (94.0%) were female, 3,529 patients (90.4%) were treated with UDCA and 373 patients (9.6%) were not treated. The median (interquartile range) follow-up was 7.8 (4.1-12.1) years. In total, 721 UDCA-treated patients and 145 untreated patients died or underwent LT. After IPTW, the 10-year cumulative LT-free survival was 79.7% (95% CI 78.1-81.2) among UDCA-treated patients and 60.7% (95% CI 58.2-63.4) among untreated patients (p <0.001). UDCA was associated with a statistically significant reduced risk of LT or death (hazard ratio 0.46, 95% CI 0.40-0.52; p <0.001). The hazard ratio remained statistically significant in all stages of disease. Patients classified as inadequate biochemical responders after 1 year of UDCA had a lower risk of LT or death than patients who were not treated (adjusted hazard ratio 0.56; 95% CI 0.45-0.69; p <0.001). CONCLUSION: The use of UDCA improves LT-free survival among patients with PBC, regardless of the disease stage and the observed biochemical response. These findings support UDCA as the current universal standard of care in PBC. LAY SUMMARY: In this international multicenter study of 3,902 patients with primary biliary cholangitis, we found that treatment with ursodeoxycholic acid is associated with prolonged liver transplant-free survival. This association was significant, irrespective of sex, age, or disease stage. The survival benefit remained statistically significant in patients with an incomplete biochemical response to ursodeoxycholic acid therapy.

Effects of Age and Sex of Response to Ursodeoxycholic Acid and Transplant-free Survival in Patients With Primary Biliary Cholangitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) predominantly affects middle-aged women; there are few data on disease phenotypes and outcomes of PBC in men and younger patients. We investigated whether differences in sex and/or age at the start of ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) treatment are associated with response to therapy, based on biochemical markers, or differences in transplant-free survival. METHODS: We performed a longitudinal retrospective study of 4355 adults in the Global PBC Study cohort, collected from 17 centers across Europe and North America. Patients received a diagnosis of PBC from 1961 through 2014. We evaluated the effects of sex and age on response to UDCA treatment (based on GLOBE score) and transplant-free survival using logistic regression and Cox regression analyses, respectively. RESULTS: Male patients were older at the start of treatment (58.3±12.1 years vs 54.3±11.6 years for women; P<.0001) and had higher levels of bilirubin and lower circulating platelet counts (P<.0001). Younger patients (45 years or younger) had increased serum levels of transaminases than older patients (older than 45 years). Patients older than 45 years at time of treatment initiation had increased odds of a biochemical response to UDCA therapy, based on GLOBE score, compared to younger patients. The greatest odds of response to UDCA were observed in patients older than 65 years (odds ratio compared to younger patients 45 years or younger, 5.48; 95% CI, 3.92-7.67; P<.0001). Risk of liver transplant or death (compared to a general population matched for age, sex, and birth year) decreased significantly with advancing age: hazard ratio for patients 35 years or younger, 14.59 (95% CI, 9.66-22.02) vs hazard ratio for patients older than 65 years, 1.39 (95% CI, 1.23-1.57) (P<.0001). On multivariable analysis, sex was not independently associated with response or transplant-free survival. CONCLUSION: In longitudinal analysis of 4355 adults in the Global PBC Study, we associated patient age, but not sex, with response to UDCA treatment and transplant-free survival. Younger age at time of treatment initiation is associated with increased risk of treatment failure, liver transplant, and death.

Pretreatment prediction of response to ursodeoxycholic acid in primary biliary cholangitis: development and validation of the UDCA Response Score.

BACKGROUND: Treatment guidelines recommend a stepwise approach to primary biliary cholangitis: all patients begin treatment with ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) monotherapy and those with an inadequate biochemical response after 12 months are subsequently considered for second-line therapies. However, as a result, patients at the highest risk can wait the longest for effective treatment. We determined whether UDCA response can be accurately predicted using pretreatment clinical parameters. METHODS: We did logistic regression analysis of pretreatment variables in a discovery cohort of patients in the UK with primary biliary cholangitis to derive the best-fitting model of UDCA response, defined as alkaline phosphatase less than 1·67 times the upper limit of normal (ULN), measured after 12 months of treatment with UDCA. We validated the model in an external cohort of patients with primary biliary cholangitis and treated with UDCA in Italy. Additionally, we assessed correlations between model predictions and key histological features, such as biliary injury and fibrosis, on liver biopsy samples. FINDINGS: 2703 participants diagnosed with primary biliary cholangitis between Jan 1, 1998, and May 31, 2015, were included in the UK-PBC cohort for derivation of the model. The following pretreatment parameters were associated with lower probability of UDCA response: higher alkaline phosphatase concentration (p<0·0001), higher total bilirubin concentration (p=0·0003), lower aminotransferase concentration (p=0·0012), younger age (p<0·0001), longer interval from diagnosis to the start of UDCA treatment (treatment time lag, p<0·0001), and worsening of alkaline phosphatase concentration from diagnosis (p<0·0001). Based on these variables, we derived a predictive score of UDCA response. In the external validation cohort, 460 patients diagnosed with primary biliary cholangitis were treated with UDCA, with follow-up data until May 31, 2016. In this validation cohort, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the score was 0·83 (95% CI 0·79-0·87). In 20 liver biopsy samples from patients with primary biliary cholangitis, the UDCA response score was associated with ductular reaction (r=-0·556, p=0·0130) and intermediate hepatocytes (probability of response was 0·90 if intermediate hepatocytes were absent vs 0·51 if present). INTERPRETATION: We have derived and externally validated a model based on pretreatment variables that accurately predicts UDCA response. Association with histological features provides face validity. This model provides a basis to explore alternative approaches to treatment stratification in patients with primary biliary cholangitis. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council and University of Milan-Bicocca.

Milder disease stage in patients with primary biliary cholangitis over a 44-year period: A changing natural history.

Changes over time in the presenting features and clinical course of patients with primary biliary cholangitis are poorly described. We sought to describe temporal trends in patient and disease characteristics over a 44-year period across a large international primary biliary cholangitis cohort of 4,805 patients diagnosed between 1970 and 2014, from 17 centers across Europe and North America. Patients were divided into five cohorts according to their year of diagnosis: 1970-1979 (n = 143), 1980-1989 (n = 858), 1990-1999 (n = 1,754), 2000-2009 (n = 1,815), and ≥2010 (n = 235). Age at diagnosis, disease stage, response to ursodeoxycholic acid, and clinical outcomes were compared. Mean age at diagnosis increased incrementally by 2-3 years per decade from 46.9 ± 10.1 years in the 1970s to 57.0 ± 12.1 years from 2010 onward (P < 0.001). The female to male ratio (9:1) and antimitochondrial antibody positivity (90%) were not significantly variable. The proportion of patients presenting with mild biochemical disease (according to Rotterdam staging) increased from 41.3% in the 1970s to 72.2% in the 1990s (P < 0.001) and remained relatively stable thereafter. Patients with a mild histological stage at diagnosis increased from 60.4% (1970-1989) to 76.5% (1990-2014) (P < 0.001). Correspondingly, response to ursodeoxycholic acid according to Paris-I criteria increased; 51.7% in the 1970s and 70.5% in the 1990s (P < 0.001). Recent decades were also characterized by lower decompensation rates (18.5% in the 1970s to 5.8% in the 2000s, P < 0.001) and higher 10-year transplant-free survival (48.4%, 68.7%, 79.7%, and 80.1% for each respective cohort; P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: In recent decades, a pattern of primary biliary cholangitis presentation consistent with an older age at diagnosis alongside reduced disease severity has been noted; the observed trends may be explained by an increase in routine testing of liver function and/or a changing environmental trigger. (Hepatology 2018;67:1920-1930).

Evolving Trends in Female to Male Incidence and Male Mortality of Primary Biliary Cholangitis.

Primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) has been regarded as female-predominant without evidence of gender difference in survival. We aimed to compare the overall survival, incidence and prevalence of PBC in two well defined population-based studies over a recent decade, considering also sex ratios and mortality. We have taken advantage of population-wide records, during 2000-2009, in Lombardia, Northern Italy, and Denmark. We focused on the incident cases of PBC, including gender and outcome, among 9.7 million inhabitants of Lombardia and 5.5 million of Denmark. In Lombardia there were 2,970 PBC cases with a female:male ratio of 2.3:1. The age/sex-adjusted annual incidence of PBC was 16.7 per million. Point prevalence was 160 per million on January 1(st) 2009. In Denmark there were 722 cases of incident PBC, female:male ratio was 4.2:1, and the annual incidence was 11.4 per million, a point prevalence of 115 per million in 2009. Cox regression multivariate analysis identified male sex as an independent predictor of all-cause mortality in both Italian (HR 2.36) and Danish population (HR 3.04). Our data indicate for PBC a sex ratio significantly lower than previously cited, a reversal of the usual latitudinal difference in prevalence and a surprisingly higher overall mortality for male patients.

Stratification of hepatocellular carcinoma risk in primary biliary cirrhosis: a multicentre international study.

OBJECTIVE: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is an infrequent yet critical event in primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC); however, predictive tools remain ill-defined. Our objective was to identify candidate risk factors for HCC development in patients with PBC. DESIGN: Risk factor analysis was performed in over 15 centres from North America and Europe spanning >40 years observation period using Cox proportional hazards assumptions, logistic regression, and Kaplan-Meier estimates. RESULTS: Of 4565 patients with PBC 123 developed HCC, yielding an incidence rate (IR) of 3.4 cases/1000 patient-years. HCC was significantly more common in men (p<0.0001), and on univariate analysis factors at PBC diagnosis associated with future HCC development were male sex (unadjusted HR 2.91, p<0.0001), elevated serum aspartate transaminase (HR 1.24, p<0.0001), advanced disease (HR 2.72, p=0.022), thrombocytopenia (HR 1.65, p<0.0001), and hepatic decompensation (HR 9.89, p<0.0001). As such, non-treatment with ursodeoxycholic acid itself was not associated with cancer development; however, 12-month stratification by biochemical non-response (Paris-I criteria) associated significantly with future risk of HCC (HR 4.52, p<0.0001; IR 6.6 vs 1.4, p<0.0001). Non-response predicted future risk in patients with early stage disease (IR 4.7 vs 1.2, p=0.005), advanced disease (HR 2.79, p=0.02; IR 11.2 vs 4.4, p=0.033), and when restricting the analysis to only male patients (HR 4.44, p<0.001; IR 18.2 vs 5.4, p<0.001). On multivariable analysis biochemical non-response remained the most significant factor predictive of future HCC risk (adjusted HR 3.44, p<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: This uniquely powered, internationally representative cohort robustly demonstrates that 12-month biochemical non-response is associated with increased future risk of developing HCC in PBC. Such risk stratification is relevant to patient care and development of new therapies.

ABCB4 mutations in adult patients with cholestatic liver disease: impact and phenotypic expression.

BACKGROUND: The ABCB4 gene encodes the MDR3 protein. Mutations of this gene cause progressive familial intrahepatic cholestasis type 3 (PFIC3) in children, but their clinical relevance in adults remains ill defined. The study of a well-characterized adult patient series may contribute to refining the genetic data regarding cholangiopathies of unknown origin. Our aim was to evaluate the impact of ABCB4 mutations on clinical expression of cholestasis in adult patients. METHODS: We consecutively evaluated 2602 subjects with hepatobiliary disease. Biochemical evidence of a chronic cholestatic profile (CCP) with elevated serum gamma-glutamyltransferase activity or diagnosis of intrahepatic cholestasis of pregnancy (ICP) and juvenile cholelithiasis (JC) were inclusion criteria. The personal/family history of additional cholestatic liver disease (PFH-CLD), which includes ICP, JC, or hormone-induced cholestasis, was investigated. Mutation screening of ABCB4 was carried out in 90 patients with idiopathic chronic cholestasis (ICC), primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC), primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC), ICP, and JC. RESULTS: Eighty patients had CCP. PSC and ICC patients with PFH-CLD had earlier onset of disease than those without it (p = 0.003 and p = 0.023, respectively). The mutation frequency ranged from 50% (ICP, JC) to 17.6% (PBC). Among CCP patients, presence or absence of PFH-CLD was associated with ABCB4 mutations in 26.8 vs 5.1% (p = 0.013), respectively; in the subset of ICC and PSC patients, the corresponding figures were 44.4 vs 0% (p = 0.012) and 28.6 vs 8.7% (p = 0.173). CONCLUSIONS: Cholangiopathies attributable to highly penetrant ABCB4 mutant alleles are identifiable in a substantial proportion of adults that generally have PFH-CLD. In PSC and ICC phenotypes, patients with MDR3 deficiency have early onset of disease.

Role of Lipoylation of the Immunodominant Epitope of Pyruvate Dehydrogenase Complex: Toward a Peptide-Based Diagnostic Assay for Primary Biliary Cirrhosis.

Primary biliary cirrhosis is an immune-mediated chronic liver disease whose diagnosis relies on the detection of serum antimitochondrial antibodies directed against a complex set of proteins, among which pyruvate dehydrogenase complex is considered the main autoantigen. We studied the immunological role of the lipoyl domain of this protein using synthetic lipoylated peptides, showing that the lipoyl chain chirality does not affect autoantibody recognition and, most importantly, confirming that both lipoylated and unlipoylated peptides are able to recognize specific autoantibodies in patients sera. In fact, 74% of patients sera recognize at least one of the tested peptides but very few positive sera recognized exclusively the lipoylated peptide, suggesting that the lipoamide moiety plays a marginal role within the autoreactive epitope. These results are supported by a conformational analysis showing that the lipoyl moiety of pyruvate dehydrogenase complex appears to be involved in hydrophobic interactions, which may limit its exposition and thus its contribution to the complex antigenic epitope. A preliminary analysis of the specificity of the two most active peptides indicates that they could be part of a panel of synthetic antigens collectively able to mimic in a simple immunoenzymatic assay the complex positivity pattern detected in immunofluorescence.