Estimation of Aboveground Biomass in Agroforestry Systems over Three Climatic Regions in West Africa Using Sentinel-1, Sentinel-2, ALOS, and GEDI Data.

Agroforestry systems (AFS) offer viable solutions for climate change because of the aboveground biomass (AGB) that is maintained by the tree component. Therefore, spatially explicit estimation of their AGB is crucial for reporting emission reduction efforts, which can be enabled using remote sensing (RS) data and methods. However, multiple factors including the spatial distributions within the AFS, their structure, their composition, and their variable extents hinder an accurate RS-assisted estimation of the AGB across AFS. The aim of this study is to (i) evaluate the potential of spaceborne optical, SAR and LiDAR data for AGB estimations in AFS and (ii) estimate the AGB of different AFS in various climatic regions. The study was carried out in three climatic regions covering Côte d'Ivoire and Burkina Faso. Two AGB reference data sources were assessed: (i) AGB estimations derived from field measurements using allometric equations and (ii) AGB predictions from the GEDI level 4A (L4A) product. Vegetation indices and texture parameters were generated from optical (Sentinel-2) and SAR data (Sentinel-1 and ALOS-2) respectively and were used as predictors. Machine learning regression models were trained and evaluated by means of the coefficient of determination (R2) and the RMSE. It was found that the prediction error was reduced by 31.2% after the stratification based on the climatic conditions. For the AGB prediction, the combination of random forest algorithm and Sentinel-1 and -2 data returned the best score. The GEDI L4A product was applicable only in the Guineo-Congolian region, but the prediction error was approx. nine times higher than the ground truth. Moreover, the AGB level varied across AFS including cocoa (7.51 ± 0.6 Mg ha-1) and rubber (7.33 ± 0.33 Mg ha-1) in the Guineo-Congolian region, cashew (13.78 ± 0.98 Mg ha-1) and mango (12.82 ± 0.65 Mg ha-1) in the Guinean region. The AFS farms in the Sudanian region showed the highest AGB level (6.59 to 82.11 Mg ha-1). AGB in an AFS was mainly determined by the diameter (R2 = 0.45), the height (R2 = 0.13) and the tree density (R2 = 0.10). Nevertheless, RS-based estimation of AGB remain challenging because of the spectral similarities between AFS. Therefore, spatial assessment of the prediction uncertainties should complement AGB maps in AFS.

Farmers' preferred tree species and their potential carbon stocks in southern Burkina Faso: Implications for biocarbon initiatives.

The success of terrestrial carbon sequestration projects for rural development in sub-Saharan Africa lies in the (i) involvement of local populations in the selection of woody species, which represent the biological assets they use to meet their daily needs, and (ii) information about the potential of these species to store carbon. Although the latter is a key prerequisite, there is very little information available. To help fill this gap, the present study was undertaken in four pilot villages (Kou, Dao, Vrassan and Cassou) in Ziro Province, south-central Burkina Faso. The objective was to determine carbon storage potential for top-priority woody species preferred by local smallholders. We used (i) participatory rural appraisal consisting of group discussions and key informant interviews to identify priority species and functions, and (ii) landscape assessment of carbon stocks in the preferred woody species. Results revealed 79 priority tree and shrub species grouped into six functions, of which medicine, food and income emerge as the most important ones for the communities. For these functions, smallholders overwhelmingly listed Vitellaria paradoxa, Parkia biglobosa, Afzelia africana, Adansonia digitata, Detarium microcarpum, and Lannea microcarpa among the most important tree species. Among the preferred woody species in Cassou and Kou, the highest quantity of carbon was stored by V. paradoxa (1180 ±209 kg C ha-1 to 2089±522 kg C ha-1) and the lowest by Grewia bicolor (5±1.2 kg C ha-1). The potential carbon stored by the preferred tree communities was estimated at 587.9 Mg C ha-1 (95% CI: 456.7; 719.1 Mg C ha-1) in Kou and256.8 Mg C ha-1 (95% CI: 67.6; 324.4 Mg C ha-1) in Cassou. The study showed that the species that farmers preferred most stored more carbon than species that were less preferred.

Linking regional stakeholder scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways: Quantified West African food and climate futures in a global context.

The climate change research community's shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are a set of alternative global development scenarios focused on mitigation of and adaptation to climate change. To use these scenarios as a global context that is relevant for policy guidance at regional and national levels, they have to be connected to an exploration of drivers and challenges informed by regional expertise. In this paper, we present scenarios for West Africa developed by regional stakeholders and quantified using two global economic models, GLOBIOM and IMPACT, in interaction with stakeholder-generated narratives and scenario trends and SSP assumptions. We present this process as an example of linking comparable scenarios across levels to increase coherence with global contexts, while presenting insights about the future of agriculture and food security under a range of future drivers including climate change. In these scenarios, strong economic development increases food security and agricultural development. The latter increases crop and livestock productivity leading to an expansion of agricultural area within the region while reducing the land expansion burden elsewhere. In the context of a global economy, West Africa remains a large consumer and producer of a selection of commodities. However, the growth in population coupled with rising incomes leads to increases in the region's imports. For West Africa, climate change is projected to have negative effects on both crop yields and grassland productivity, and a lack of investment may exacerbate these effects. Linking multi-stakeholder regional scenarios to the global SSPs ensures scenarios that are regionally appropriate and useful for policy development as evidenced in the case study, while allowing for a critical link to global contexts.