Emergence of epizootic hemorrhagic disease in red deer (Cervus elaphus), Spain, 2022.

Epizootic hemorrhagic disease (EHD) virus serotype 8 (EHDV-8) emerged in Spain in autumn 2022. In this study, we aimed to (1) characterize the clinical and lesional presentation of EHDV infection in European red deer (Cervus elaphus), and (2) study the spatial spread of the virus in wild ruminants in Spain after its introduction, in 2022/2023. We confirmed EHDV infection in two clinically compatible sick red deer by PCR and detection of anti-EHDV specific antibodies. EHDV infection occurred in red deer with hyperacute to acute clinical signs and lesions associated to vascular changes leading to death of the animals. Partial sequences of variable segment 2 (VP2) and segment 5 (NS1) genes of the detected viruses had >99% nucleotide identity with EHDV-8 sequences from Tunisia and Italy. In a cross-sectional serological study of EHDV in 592 wild ruminants, mainly red deer (n=578), in southwestern Spain, we detected anti-EHDV antibodies in 37 of 592 samples (6.3%; 95% confidence interval: 4.3-8.2), all from red deer and from the localities where clinical cases of EHD were confirmed in red deer. We conclude that EHDV-8 infection causes severe EHD in European red deer. The serosurvey revealed a limited spread of EHDV-8 in Spanish wild ruminant populations in the first year of virus detection in Spain.

Animal Exposure Model for Mapping Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever Virus Emergence Risk.

To estimate the determinants of spatial variation in Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) transmission and to create a risk map as a preventive public health tool, we designed a survey of small domestic ruminants in Andalusia, Spain. To assess CCHFV exposure spatial distribution, we analyzed serum from 2,440 sheep and goats by using a double-antigen ELISA and modeled exposure probability with environmental predictors by using generalized linear mixed models. CCHFV antibodies detected in 84 samples confirmed low CCHFV prevalence in small domestic ruminants in the region. The best-fitted statistical model indicated that the most significant predictors of virus exposure risk were cattle/horse density and the normalized difference vegetation index. Model validation showed 99.7% specificity and 10.2% sensitivity for identifying CCHFV circulation areas. To map CCHFV exposure risk, we projected the model at a 1 × 1-km spatial resolution. Our study provides insight into CCHFV ecology that is useful for preventing virus transmission.

Testing the efficiency of capture methods for questing Hyalomma lusitanicum (Acari: Ixodidae), a vector of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus.

Available methods to census exophilic tick populations have limitations in estimating true population size due to their inability to capture a high proportion of the actual tick population. We currently ignore the efficacy of these methods to capture questing Hyalomma spp. ticks, vectors of the Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus. To address the need of accurately estimating questing densities of Hyalomma spp., we designed a field experiment to test the efficacy of blanket dragging, blanket flagging, CO2-baited traps, and an ad hoc designed method, absolute surface counts, in capturing adult Hyalomma lusitanicum ticks from known numbers of preset fluorescent-marked ticks. The experiment was designed in 2 stages to estimate the point (1-day sampling) and cumulative (3-day serial sampling) efficacy of the methods under varying sampling effort and habitat. Tick survival, host interference, and weather effects on efficacy were controlled for in multiple regression models. There was high variability in method efficacy for capturing ticks, which was also modulated by effort, habitat, tick density, hosts, and soil temperature. The most effective method was absolute surface counts for both point estimates (39%) and cumulative efficacy (83%). CO2-baited traps reached a maximum efficacy of 37%, while blanket dragging and blanket flagging captured a maximum of the 8% of the marked ticks. Our results reveal the strengths and weaknesses of the different tick capture methods applied to adult H. lusitanicum and lay the groundwork for more accurate inferences about the true size of exophilic tick populations.

Mapping the risk of exposure to Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus in the Iberian Peninsula using Eurasian wild boar (Sus scrofa) as a model.

Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF) virus (CCHFV) is a tick-borne zoonotic pathogen that can cause a lethal haemorrhagic disease in humans. Although the virus appears to be endemically established in the Iberian Peninsula, CCHF is an emerging disease in Spain. Clinical signs of CCHFV infection are mainly manifested in humans, but the virus replicates in several animal species. Understanding the determinants of CCHFV exposure risk from animal models is essential to predicting high-risk exposure hotspots for public health action. With this objective in mind, we designed a cross-sectional study of Eurasian wild boar (Sus scrofa) in Spain and Portugal. The study analysed 5,291 sera collected between 2006 and 2022 from 90 wild boar populations with a specific double-antigen ELISA to estimate CCHFV serum prevalence and identify the main determinants of exposure probability. To do so, we statistically modelled exposure risk with host- and environment-related predictors and spatially projected it at a 10 × 10 km square resolution at the scale of the Iberian Peninsula to map foci of infection risk. Fifty-seven (63.3 %) of the 90 populations had at least one seropositive animal, with seroprevalence ranging from 0.0 to 88.2 %. Anti-CCHFV antibodies were found in 1,026 of 5,291 wild boar (19.4 %; 95 % confidence interval: 18.3-20.5 %), with highest exposure rates in southwestern Iberia. The most relevant predictors of virus exposure risk were wild boar abundance, local rainfall regime, shrub cover, winter air temperature and soil temperature variation. The spatial projection of the best-fit model identified high-risk foci as occurring in most of western and southwestern Iberia and identified recently confirmed risk foci in eastern Spain. The results of the study demonstrate that serological surveys of CCHFV vector hosts are a powerful, robust and highly informative tool for public health authorities to take action to prevent human cases of CCHF in enzootic and emergency settings.

Insights into the spatiotemporal dynamics of West Nile virus transmission in emerging scenarios.

The incidence of West Nile fever (WNF) is highly variable in emerging areas, making it difficult to identify risk periods. Using clinical case records has important biases in understanding the transmission dynamics of West Nile virus (WNV) because asymptomatic infections are frequent. However, estimating virus exposure in sentinel species could help achieve this goal at varying spatiotemporal scales. To identify the determinants of inter-annual variation in WNV transmission rates, we designed a 15-year longitudinal seroepidemiological study (2005-2020) in five environmentally diverse areas of southwestern Spain. We modeled individual annual area-dependent exposure risk based on potential environmental and host predictors using generalized linear mixed models. Further, we analyzed the weight of predictors on exposure probability by variance partitioning of the model components. The analysis of 2418 wild ungulate sera (1168 red deer - Cervus elaphus - and 1250 Eurasian wild boar - Sus scrofa) with a highly sensitive commercial blocking ELISA identified an average seroprevalence of 24.9% (95% confidence interval (CI): 23.2-26.7%). Antibody prevalence was slightly higher in wild boar (27.5%; CI: 25.1-30.1%) than in deer (22.2%; CI: 19.8-24.7%). We observed a spatial trend in exposure, with higher frequency in the southernmost areas and a slight, although area-dependent, increasing temporal trend. Host-related predictors were important drivers of exposure risk. The environmental predictor with the highest weight was annual cumulative precipitation, while temperature variations were also relevant but with less weight. We observed a coincidence of spatiotemporal changes in exposure with the notification of WNF outbreaks in horses and humans. That indicates the usefulness of wild ungulates as sentinels for WNV transmission and as models to understand its spatiotemporal dynamics. These results will allow the development of more accurate predictive models of spatiotemporal variations in transmission risk that can inform health authorities to take appropriate action.

Determinants of Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus exposure dynamics in Mediterranean environments.

Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is an emerging tick-borne human disease in Spain. Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics and exposure risk determinants of CCHF virus (CCHFV) in animal models is essential to predict the time and areas of highest transmission risk. With this goal, we designed a longitudinal survey of two wild ungulate species, the red deer (Cervus elaphus) and the Eurasian wild boar (Sus scrofa), in Doñana National Park, a protected Mediterranean biodiversity hotspot with high ungulate and CCHFV vector abundance, and which is also one of the main stopover sites for migratory birds between Africa and western Europe. Both ungulates are hosts to the principal CCHFV vector in Spain, Hyalomma lusitanicum. We sampled wild ungulates annually from 2005 to 2020 and analysed the frequency of exposure to CCHFV by a double-antigen ELISA. The annual exposure risk was modelled as a function of environmental traits in an approach to understanding exposure risk determinants that allow us to predict the most likely places and years for CCHFV transmission. The main findings show that H. lusitanicum abundance is a fundamental driver of the fine-scale spatial CCHFV transmission risk, while inter-annual risk variation is conditioned by virus/vector hosts, host community structure and weather variations. The most relevant conclusion of the study is that the emergence of CCHF in Spain might be associated with recent wild ungulate population changes promoting higher vector abundance. This work provides relevant insights into the transmission dynamics of CCHFV in enzootic scenarios that would allow deepening the understanding of the ecology of CCHFV and its major determinants.

Environmental factors driving fine-scale ixodid tick abundance patterns.

Tick abundance is an essential demographic parameter to infer tick-borne pathogen transmission risks. Spatiotemporal patterns of tick abundance are heterogeneous, so its determinants at small spatial scales need to be understood to reduce their negative effects on hosts. Current knowledge of these determinants is scarce, especially in Mediterranean environments, limiting the possibilities for designing efficient tick control strategies. With the goal of unravelling tick abundance determinants and informing new tick management strategies, we estimated tick burdens on 1965 wild ungulates in Doñana National Park, Spain, annually between 2010 and 2020. Under the hypothesis of a predominant host influence on tick abundance, we modelled the burdens of Rhipicephalus annulatus, Hyalomma lusitanicum, and Ixodes ricinus with relevant predictors grouped into four factors: i) environment; ii) host population; iii) host individual; and iv) land-use. Generalized linear mixed models with a zero-inflated negative binomial distribution were built. Additionally, we analysed the differential contribution to abundance of each factor by deviance partitioning. We finally estimated the similarity in the environmental space of tick species by analysing their niche overlap with the environmental principal component analysis method. Our work hypothesis was confirmed for R. annulatus and H. lusitanicum, but we found that tick abundance at a fine spatial scale is jointly driven by multiple drivers, including all four factors considered in this study. This result points out that understanding the demography of ticks is a complex multifactorial issue, even at small spatial scales. We found no niche differences between the three tick species at the study spatial scale, thus showing similar host and environmental dependencies. Overall results identify that host aggregation areas displaying environmentally favourable traits for ticks are relevant tick and vector-borne pathogen transmission hotspots. Our findings will facilitate the design of new strategies to reduce the negative effects of tick parasitism.