Ipilimumab and nivolumab plus radioembolization as salvage therapy for atezolizumab and bevacizumab refractory hepatocellular carcinoma resulting in complete pathologic response.

Unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma unresponsive to first-line immunotherapy has a poor prognosis with modest response to tyrosine kinase inhibitors in the second line. In these patients, the benefit of local therapy with immunotherapy rechallenge is unknown. Radioembolization is a guideline-supported locoregional therapy for HCC that has shown the potential for synergy in combination with immunotherapy. This report describes a patient with veno-invasive HCC and extrahepatic invasion of the right kidney which progressed on atezolizumab and bevacizumab and was subsequently downstaged to resection with ipilimumab and nivolumab plus radioembolization yielding a complete pathologic response. The patient is currently more than 2 years since diagnosis without evidence of disease recurrence.

Machine learning to attribute the source of Campylobacter infections in the United States: A retrospective analysis of national surveillance data.

OBJECTIVES: Integrating pathogen genomic surveillance with bioinformatics can enhance public health responses by identifying risk and guiding interventions. This study focusses on the two predominant Campylobacter species, which are commonly found in the gut of birds and mammals and often infect humans via contaminated food. Rising incidence and antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are a global concern, and there is an urgent need to quantify the main routes to human infection. METHODS: During routine US national surveillance (2009-2019), 8856 Campylobacter genomes from human infections and 16,703 from possible sources were sequenced. Using machine learning and probabilistic models, we target genetic variation associated with host adaptation to attribute the source of human infections and estimate the importance of different disease reservoirs. RESULTS: Poultry was identified as the primary source of human infections, responsible for an estimated 68% of cases, followed by cattle (28%), and only a small contribution from wild birds (3%) and pork sources (1%). There was also evidence of an increase in multidrug resistance, particularly among isolates attributed to chickens. CONCLUSIONS: National surveillance and source attribution can guide policy, and our study suggests that interventions targeting poultry will yield the greatest reductions in campylobacteriosis and spread of AMR in the US. DATA AVAILABILITY: All sequence reads were uploaded and shared on NCBI's Sequence Read Archive (SRA) associated with BioProjects; PRJNA239251 (CDC / PulseNet surveillance), PRJNA287430 (FSIS surveillance), PRJNA292668 & PRJNA292664 (NARMS) and PRJNA258022 (FDA surveillance). Publicly available genomes, including reference genomes and isolates sampled worldwide from wild birds are associated with BioProject accessions: PRJNA176480, PRJNA177352, PRJNA342755, PRJNA345429, PRJNA312235, PRJNA415188, PRJNA524300, PRJNA528879, PRJNA529798, PRJNA575343, PRJNA524315 and PRJNA689604. Contiguous assemblies of all genome sequences compared are available at Mendeley data (assembled C. coli genomes doi: 10.17632/gxswjvxyh3.1; assembled C. jejuni genomes doi: 10.17632/6ngsz3dtbd.1) and individual project and accession numbers can be found in Supplementary tables S1 and S2, which also includes pubMLST identifiers for assembled genomes. Figshare (10.6084/m9.figshare.20279928). Interactive phylogenies are hosted on microreact separately for C. jejuni (https://microreact.org/project/pascoe-us-cjejuni) and C. coli (https://microreact.org/project/pascoe-us-ccoli).

Impact of pre-transplant immune checkpoint inhibitor use on post-transplant outcomes in HCC: A systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Treatment with immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) prior to liver transplantation (LT) has been reported; however, ICIs may elevate the risk of allograft rejection and impact other clinical outcomes. This study aims to summarize the impact of ICI use on post-LT outcomes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In this individual patient data meta-analysis, we searched databases to identify HCC cases treated with ICIs before LT, detailing allograft rejection, HCC recurrence, and overall survival. We performed Cox regression analysis to identify risk factors for allograft rejection. RESULTS: Among 91 eligible patients, with a median (interquartile range [IQR]) follow-up of 690.0 (654.5) days, there were 24 (26.4%) allograft rejections, 9 (9.9%) HCC recurrences, and 9 (9.9%) deaths. Age (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] per 10 years=0.72, 95% confidence interval [CI]=0.53, 0.99, P=0.044) and ICI washout time (aHR per 1 week=0.92, 95% CI=0.86, 0.99, P=0.022) were associated with allograft rejection. The median (IQR) washout period for patients with ≤20% probability of allograft rejection was 94 (196) days. Overall survival did not differ between cases with and without allograft rejection (log-rank test, p=0.2). Individuals with HCC recurrence had fewer median (IQR) ICI cycles than those without recurrence (4.0 [1.8]) vs. 8.0 [9.0]); p=0.025). The proportion of patients within Milan post-ICI was lower for those with recurrence vs. without (16.7% vs. 65.3%, p=0.032) CONCLUSION: Patients have acceptable post-LT outcomes after ICI therapy. Age and ICI washout length relate to the allograft rejection risk, and a 3-month washout may reduce it to that of patients without ICI exposure. Number of ICI cycles and tumor burden may affect recurrence risk. Large prospective studies are necessary to confirm these associations. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: This systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis of 91 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma and immune checkpoint inhibitors use prior to liver transplantation suggests acceptable overall post-transplant outcomes. Older age and longer immune checkpoint inhibitor washout period have a significant inverse association with the risk of allograft rejection. A 3-month washout may reduce it to that of patients without ICI exposure. Additionally, a higher number of immune checkpoint inhibitor cycles and tumor burden within Milan criteria at the completion of immunotherapy may predict a decreased risk of hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence, but this observation requires further validation in larger prospective studies. CODE FOR INTERNATIONAL PROSPECTIVE REGISTER OF SYSTEMATIC REVIEWS (PROSPERO): CRD42023494951.

An Approach to Describe Salmonella Serotypes of Concern for Outbreaks: Using Burden and Trajectory of Outbreak-related Illnesses Associated with Meat and Poultry.

Over 40% of all U.S. Salmonella illnesses are attributed to consumption of contaminated meat and poultry products each year. Determining which serotypes cause the most outbreak illnesses associated with specific meat and poultry types can inform prevention measures. We developed an approach to categorize serotypes using outbreak illness burden (high, moderate, low) and trajectory (increased, stable, decreased). We used data from 192 foodborne Salmonella outbreaks resulting in 7,077 illnesses, 1,330 hospitalizations, and 9 deaths associated with chicken, turkey, beef, or pork during 2012-2021. We linked each meat and poultry type to 1-3 serotypes that we categorized as high outbreak illness burden and increased trajectory during 2021. Calculation and public display of outbreak illness burden and trajectory annually could facilitate the prioritization of serotypes for prevention by federal and state health and regulatory agencies and by the meat and poultry industry.

Syndromic Gastrointestinal Panel Diagnostic Tests Have Changed our Understanding of the Epidemiology of Yersiniosis-Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network, 2010-2021.

Background: In the US, yersinosis was understood to predominantly occur in winter and among Black or African American infants and Asian children. Increased use of culture-independent diagnostic tests (CIDTs) has led to marked increases in yersinosis diagnoses. Methods: We describe differences in the epidemiology of yersiniosis diagnosed by CIDT versus culture in 10 US sites, and identify determinants of health associated with diagnostic method. Results: Annual reported incidence increased from 0.3/100 000 in 2010 to 1.3/100 000 in 2021, particularly among adults ≥18 years, regardless of race and ethnicity, and during summer months. The proportion of CIDT-diagnosed infections increased from 3% in 2012 to 89% in 2021. An ill person's demographic characteristics and location of residence had a significant impact on their odds of being diagnosed by CIDT. Conclusions: Improved detection due to increased CIDT use has altered our understanding of yersinosis epidemiology, however differential access to CIDTs may still affect our understanding of yersinosis.

Histologic Findings of Sinusoidal Dilatation and Congestion in Liver Grafts Do Not Correlate with Hepatic Venous Anastomotic Gradients.

PURPOSE: Hepatic venous transplant anastomotic pressure gradient measurement and transjugular liver biopsy are commonly used in clinical decision-making in patients with suspected anastomotic hepatic venous outflow obstruction. This investigation aimed to determine if sinusoidal dilatation and congestion on histology are predictive of hepatic venous anastomotic outflow obstruction, and if it can help select patients for hepatic vein anastomosis stenting. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This is a single-center retrospective study of 166 transjugular liver biopsies in 139 patients obtained concurrently with transplant venous anastomotic pressure gradient measurement. Demographic characteristics, laboratory parameters, procedure and clinical data, and histology of time-zero allograft biopsies were analyzed. RESULTS: No relationship was found between transplant venous anastomotic pressure gradient and sinusoidal dilatation and congestion (P = 0.92). Logistic regression analysis for sinusoidal dilatation and congestion confirmed a significant relationship with reperfusion/preservation injury and/or necrosis of the allograft at time-zero biopsy (OR 6.6 [1.3-33.1], P = 0.02). CONCLUSION: There is no relationship between histologic sinusoidal dilatation and congestion and liver transplant hepatic vein anastomotic gradient. In this study group, sinusoidal dilatation and congestion is a nonspecific histopathologic finding that is not a reliable criterion to select patients for venous anastomosis stenting.

Estimates of SARS-CoV-2 Hospitalization and Fatality Rates in the Prevaccination Period, United States.

Few precise estimates of hospitalization and fatality rates from COVID-19 exist for naive populations, especially within demographic subgroups. We estimated rates among persons with SARS-CoV-2 infection in the United States during May 1-December 1, 2020, before vaccines became available. Both rates generally increased with age; fatality rates were highest for persons >85 years of age (24%) and lowest for children 1-14 years of age (0.01%). Age-adjusted case hospitalization rates were highest for African American or Black, not Hispanic persons (14%), and case-fatality rates were highest for Asian or Pacific Islander, not Hispanic persons (4.4%). Eighteen percent of hospitalized patients and 44.2% of those admitted to an intensive care unit died. Male patients had higher hospitalization (6.2% vs. 5.2%) and fatality rates (1.9% vs. 1.5%) than female patients. These findings highlight the importance of collecting surveillance data to devise appropriate control measures for persons in underserved racial/ethnic groups and older adults.

Real-Time Use of a Dynamic Model To Measure the Impact of Public Health Interventions on Measles Outbreak Size and Duration - Chicago, Illinois, 2024.

Measles is a highly infectious, vaccine-preventable disease that can cause severe illness, hospitalization, and death. A measles outbreak associated with a migrant shelter in Chicago occurred during February-April 2024, in which a total of 57 confirmed cases were identified, including 52 among shelter residents, three among staff members, and two among community members with a known link to the shelter. CDC simulated a measles outbreak among shelter residents using a dynamic disease model, updated in real time as additional cases were identified, to produce outbreak forecasts and assess the impact of public health interventions. As of April 8, the model forecasted a median final outbreak size of 58 cases (IQR = 56-60 cases); model fit and prediction range improved as more case data became available. Counterfactual analysis of different intervention scenarios demonstrated the importance of early deployment of public health interventions in Chicago, with a 69% chance of an outbreak of 100 or more cases had there been no mass vaccination or active case-finding compared with only a 1% chance when those interventions were deployed. This analysis highlights the value of using real-time, dynamic models to aid public health response, set expectations about outbreak size and duration, and quantify the impact of interventions. The model shows that prompt mass vaccination and active case-finding likely substantially reduced the chance of a large (100 or more cases) outbreak in Chicago.

The Increasing Burden of Emergency Department and Inpatient Consultations for "Papilledema".

BACKGROUND: Increasing incidence of idiopathic intracranial hypertension (IIH), overreported radiologic signs of intracranial hypertension, difficult access to outpatient neuro-ophthalmology services, poor insurance coverage, and medicolegal concerns have lowered the threshold for emergency department (ED) visits for "papilledema." Our objective was to examine referral patterns and outcomes of neuro-ophthalmology ED and inpatient consultations for concern for papilledema. METHODS: At one university-based quaternary care center, all adults referred for "papilledema" over one year underwent a standardized ED "papilledema protocol." We collected patient demographics, final diagnoses, and referral patterns. RESULTS: Over 1 year, 153 consecutive patients were referred for concern for papilledema. After papilledema protocol, 89 of 153 patients (58%) had bilateral optic disc edema, among whom 89% (79/89) had papilledema (intracranial hypertension). Of the 38 of 153 (25%) consultations for suspected disorder of intracranial pressure without previous fundus examination (Group 1), 74% (28/38) did not have optic disc edema, 21% (8/38) had papilledema, and 5% (2/38) had other causes of bilateral disc edema. Of the 89 of 153 (58%) consultations for presumed papilledema seen on fundus examination (Group 2), 58% (66/89) had confirmed papilledema, 17% (15/89) had pseudopapilledema, and 9% (8/89) had other causes of bilateral optic disc edema. Of the 26 of 153 (17%) patients with known IIH (Group 3), 5 had papilledema and 4 required urgent intervention. The most common diagnosis was IIH (58/79). Compared with IIH, patients with secondary causes of intracranial hypertension were older (P = 0.002), men (P < 0.001), not obese (P < 0.001), and more likely to have neurologic symptoms (P = 0.002). CONCLUSION: Inpatient and ED consultations for "papilledema" are increasing. Of the 153 ED and inpatient neuro-ophthalmology consultations seen for "papilledema" over 1 year, one-third of patients with optic disc edema of unknown cause before presentation to our ED had new vision- or life-threatening disease, supporting the need for prompt identification and evaluation of optic disc edema in the ED. In the face of limited access to neuro-ophthalmologists, this study supports the need for emergency department access to expert eye-care evaluation or ocular fundus camera for prompt identification of optic disc edema and standardized evaluation for neurologic emergencies.

A Possible Newly Defined and Treatable Secondary Cause of Early Morning Wake-Up Headaches in an Older Hypermobile Woman: Nutcracker Physiology with Spinal Epidural Venous Congestion.

Introduction: Left renal vein compression (nutcracker physiology) with secondary spinal epidural venous congestion is a newly recognized cause of daily persistent headache. Presently, only women with underlying symptomatic hypermobility issues appear to develop headache from this anatomic issue. The hypothesized etiology is an abnormal reset of the patient's cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) pressure to an elevated state. Headaches that occur during sleep can have a varied differential diagnosis, one of which is elevated CSF pressure. We present the case of an older woman who began to develop severe wake-up headaches at midnight. She was found to have left renal vein compression and spinal epidural venous congestion on imaging. After treatment with lumbar vein coil embolization, which alleviated the spinal cord venous congestion, her headaches alleviated. Case Report: A 61-year-old woman with a history of hypermobile Ehlers-Danlos syndrome began to be awakened with severe head pain at midnight at least several times per week. The headache was a holocranial, pressure sensation, which worsened in the supine position. The headaches were mostly eliminated with acetazolamide. Because of her hypermobility issues and pressure-like headache, she was investigated for underlying nutcracker physiology and spinal epidural venous congestion. This was confirmed using magnetic resonance (MR) angiography and conventional venography, and after lumbar vein coil embolization her wake-up headaches ceased. Conclusion: The case report suggests a possible new underlying and treatable cause for early morning, wake-up headaches: nutcracker physiology with secondary spinal epidural venous congestion. The case expands on the clinical headache presentation of nutcracker physiology.

Glaucoma as a cause of optic nerve abnormalities on magnetic resonance imaging.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: To report a series of patients with glaucoma and optic nerve abnormalities on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in at least one-eye, and to determine whether these findings correlate with the severity of glaucoma. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Retrospective study of all patients who underwent a brain/orbits MRI without and with contrast at our institution between 07/1/2019-6/30/2022. Patients with optic nerve T2-hyperintensity and/or MRI optic nerve atrophy in at least one-eye and a diagnosis of isolated glaucoma in at least one-eye were included. Demographic information, glaucoma clinical characteristics, glaucoma severity parameters, and MRI indication were collected. RESULTS: Fifty-six patients (112 eyes) (age 65 years-old [range 26-88]; 70% male) had isolated bilateral glaucoma with at least one-eye MRI optic nerve abnormality. The indication for MRI was atypical/asymmetric glaucoma in 91% of patients. Of the 112 eyes, 23 had optic nerve T2-hyperintensity alone; 33 had both optic nerve T2-hyperintensity and MRI optic nerve atrophy; 34 had MRI optic nerve atrophy alone; and 22 did not have abnormal optic nerve MRI-findings. None had optic nerve enhancement. A statistically significant association between optic nerve T2-hyperintensity or MRI optic nerve atrophy and glaucoma severity parameters was found. CONCLUSIONS: Glaucoma is a clinical diagnosis and MRI brain is usually not required, except in atypical or asymmetric cases. Optic nerve T2-hyperintensity and MRI optic nerve atrophy are nonspecific MRI-findings that can be found in severe glaucomatous optic nerves and should not systematically prompt investigations for another cause of optic neuropathy.

Radiation Segmentectomy for the Treatment of Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Practical Review of Evidence.

Radiation segmentectomy is a versatile, safe, and effective ablative therapy for early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma. Advances in radiation segmentectomy patient selection, procedural technique, and dosimetry have positioned this modality as a curative-intent and guideline-supported treatment for patients with solitary HCC. This review describes key radiation segmentectomy concepts and summarizes the existing literary knowledgebase.

Optic Nerve MRI T2-Hyperintensity: A Nonspecific Marker of Optic Nerve Damage.

BACKGROUND: MRI abnormalities are common in optic neuropathies, especially on dedicated orbital imaging. In acute optic neuritis, optic nerve T2-hyperintensity associated with optic nerve contrast enhancement is the typical imaging finding. In chronic optic neuropathies, optic nerve T2-hyperintensity and atrophy are regularly seen. Isolated optic nerve T2-hyperintensity is often erroneously presumed to reflect optic neuritis, frequently prompting unnecessary investigations and neuro-ophthalmology consultations. Our goal was to determine the significance of optic nerve/chiasm T2-hyperintensity and/or atrophy on MRI. METHODS: Retrospective study of consecutive patients who underwent brain/orbital MRI with/without contrast at our institution between July 1, 2019, and June 6, 2022. Patients with optic nerve/chiasm T2-hyperintensity and/or atrophy were included. Medical records were reviewed to determine the etiology of the T2-hyperintensity and/or atrophy. RESULTS: Four hundred seventy-seven patients (698 eyes) were included [mean age 52 years (SD ±18 years); 57% women]. Of the 364 of 698 eyes with optic nerve/chiasm T2-hyperintensity without atrophy, the causes were compressive (104), inflammatory (103), multifactorial (49), glaucoma (21), normal (19), and other (68); of the 219 of 698 eyes with optic nerve/chiasm T2-hyperintensity and atrophy, the causes were compressive (57), multifactorial (40), inflammatory (38), glaucoma (33), normal (7), and other (44); of the 115 of 698 eyes with optic nerve/chiasm atrophy without T2-hyperintensity, the causes were glaucoma (34), multifactorial (21), inflammatory (13), compressive (11), normal (10), and other (26). Thirty-six eyes with optic nerve/chiasm T2-hyperintensity or atrophy did not have evidence of optic neuropathy or retinopathy on ophthalmologic examination, and 17 eyes had clinical evidence of severe retinopathy without primary optic neuropathy. CONCLUSIONS: Optic nerve T2-hyperintensity or atrophy can be found with any cause of optic neuropathy and with severe chronic retinopathy. These MRI findings should not automatically prompt optic neuritis diagnosis, workup, and treatment, and caution is advised regarding their use in the diagnostic criteria for multiple sclerosis. Cases of incidentally found MRI optic nerve T2-hyperintensity and/or atrophy without a known underlying optic neuropathy or severe retinopathy are rare. Such patients should receive an ophthalmologic examination before further investigations.

Abscopal downstaging of intermediate stage hepatocellular via combination cryoablation and immunotherapy with complete pathologic response.

The abscopal effect is a rare phenomenon characterized by disease regression in distant sites after tumoral locoregional therapy. Locoregional therapy, such as cryoablation, can induce an antitumor immunological response, potentially improving outcomes in cancer patients receiving immunotherapy. This report describes a patient with multifocal hepatocellular carcinoma who progressed through multiple locoregional therapies, was initially unresponsive to immunotherapy, and later achieved rapid and sustained disease regression with a combination cryoablation and immunotherapy. A 5-year sustained complete tumor response successfully bridged to liver transplantation.

Application of a Deep Learning System to Detect Papilledema on Nonmydriatic Ocular Fundus Photographs in an Emergency Department.

PURPOSE: The Fundus photography vs Ophthalmoscopy Trial Outcomes in the Emergency Department (FOTO-ED) studies showed that ED providers poorly recognized funduscopic findings in patients in the ED. We tested a modified version of the Brain and Optic Nerve Study Artificial Intelligence (BONSAI) deep learning system on nonmydriatic fundus photographs from the FOTO-ED studies to determine if the deep learning system could have improved the detection of papilledema had it been available to ED providers as a real-time diagnostic aid. DESIGN: Retrospective secondary analysis of a cohort of patients included in the FOTO-ED studies. METHODS: The testing data set included 1608 photographs obtained from 828 patients in the FOTO-ED studies. Photographs were reclassified according to the optic disc classification system used by the deep learning system ("normal optic discs," "papilledema," and "other optic disc abnormalities"). The system's performance was evaluated by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), sensitivity, and specificity using a 1-vs-rest strategy, with reference to expert neuro-ophthalmologists. RESULTS: The BONSAI deep learning system successfully distinguished normal from abnormal optic discs (AUC 0.92 [95% confidence interval {CI} 0.90-0.93]; sensitivity 75.6% [73.7%-77.5%] and specificity 89.6% [86.3%-92.8%]), and papilledema from normal and others (AUC 0.97 [0.95-0.99]; sensitivity 84.0% [75.0%-92.6%] and specificity 98.9% [98.5%-99.4%]). Six patients with missed papilledema in 1 eye were correctly identified by the deep learning system as having papilledema in the other eye. CONCLUSIONS: The BONSAI deep learning system was able to reliably identify papilledema and normal optic discs on nonmydriatic photographs obtained in the FOTO-ED studies. Our deep learning system has excellent potential as a diagnostic aid in EDs and non-ophthalmology clinics equipped with nonmydriatic fundus cameras. NOTE: Publication of this article is sponsored by the American Ophthalmological Society.

Modelling counterfactual incidence during the transition towards culture-independent diagnostic testing.

BACKGROUND: Culture-independent diagnostic testing (CIDT) provides rapid results to clinicians and is quickly displacing traditional detection methods. Increased CIDT use and sensitivity likely result in higher case detection but might also obscure infection trends. Severe illness outcomes, such as hospitalization and death, are likely less affected by changes in testing practices and can be used as indicators of the expected case incidence trend had testing methods not changed. METHODS: Using US Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network data during 1996-2019 and mixed effects quasi-Poisson regression, we estimated the expected yearly incidence for nine enteric pathogens. RESULTS: Removing the effect of CIDT use, CIDT panel testing and culture-confirmation of CIDT testing, the modelled incidence in all but three pathogens (Salmonella, Shigella, STEC O157) was significantly lower than the observed and the upward trend in Campylobacter was reversed from an observed 2.8% yearly increase to a modelled -2.8% yearly decrease (95% credible interval: -4.0, -1.4). CONCLUSIONS: Severe outcomes may be useful indicators in evaluating trends in surveillance systems that have undergone a marked change.

Clinical Outcomes of Patients With Nontyphoidal Salmonella Infections by Isolate Resistance-Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network, 10 US Sites, 2004-2018.

BACKGROUND: Nontyphoidal Salmonella causes an estimated 1.35 million US infections annually. Antimicrobial-resistant strains are a serious public health threat. We examined the association between resistance and the clinical outcomes of hospitalization, length-of-stay ≥3 days, and death. METHODS: We linked epidemiologic data from the Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network with antimicrobial resistance data from the National Antimicrobial Resistance Monitoring System (NARMS) for nontyphoidal Salmonella infections from 2004 to 2018. We defined any resistance as resistance to ≥1 antimicrobial and clinical resistance as resistance to ampicillin, azithromycin, ceftriaxone, ciprofloxacin, or trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole (for the subset of isolates tested for all 5 agents). We compared outcomes before and after adjusting for age, state, race/ethnicity, international travel, outbreak association, and isolate serotype and source. RESULTS: Twenty percent of isolates (1105/5549) had any resistance, and 16% (469/2969) had clinical resistance. Persons whose isolates had any resistance were more likely to be hospitalized (31% vs 28%, P = .01) or have length-of-stay ≥3 days (20% vs 16%, P = .01). Deaths were rare but more common among those with any than no resistance (1.0% vs 0.4%, P = .01). Outcomes for patients whose isolates had clinical resistance did not differ significantly from those with no resistance. After adjustment, any resistance (adjusted odds ratio 1.23, 95% confidence interval 1.04-1.46) remained significantly associated with hospitalization. CONCLUSIONS: We observed a significant association between nontyphoidal Salmonella infections caused by resistant pathogens and likelihood of hospitalization. Clinical resistance was not associated with poorer outcomes, suggesting that factors other than treatment failure (eg, strain virulence, strain source, host factors) may be important.

A Prediction Tool to Identify the Causative Agent of Enteric Disease Outbreaks Using Outbreak Surveillance Data.

Information on the causative agent in an enteric disease outbreak can be used to generate hypotheses about the route of transmission and possible vehicles, to guide environmental assessments, and to target outbreak control measures. However, only about 40% of outbreaks reported in the United States include a confirmed etiology. The goal of this project was to identify clinical and demographic characteristics that can be used to predict the causative agent in an enteric disease outbreak and to use these data to develop an online tool for investigators to use during an outbreak when hypothesizing about the causative agent. Using data on enteric disease outbreaks from all transmission routes (animal contact, environmental contamination, foodborne, person-to-person, waterborne, unknown) reported to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, we developed random forest models to predict the etiology of an outbreak based on aggregated clinical and demographic characteristics at both the etiology category (i.e., bacteria, parasites, toxins, viruses) and individual etiology (Clostridium perfringens, Campylobacter, Cryptosporidium, norovirus, Salmonella, Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli, and Shigella) levels. The etiology category model had a kappa of 0.85 and an accuracy of 0.92, whereas the etiology-specific model had a kappa of 0.75 and an accuracy of 0.86. The highest sensitivities in the etiology category model were for bacteria and viruses; all categories had high specificities (>0.90). For the etiology-specific model, norovirus and Salmonella had the highest sensitivity and all etiologies had high specificities. When laboratory confirmation is unavailable, information on the clinical signs and symptoms reported by people associated with the outbreak, with other characteristics including case demographics and illness severity, can be used to predict the etiology or etiology category. An online publicly available tool was developed to assist investigators in their enteric disease outbreak investigations.