Hagfish genome elucidates vertebrate whole-genome duplication events and their evolutionary consequences.

Polyploidy or whole-genome duplication (WGD) is a major event that drastically reshapes genome architecture and is often assumed to be causally associated with organismal innovations and radiations. The 2R hypothesis suggests that two WGD events (1R and 2R) occurred during early vertebrate evolution. However, the timing of the 2R event relative to the divergence of gnathostomes (jawed vertebrates) and cyclostomes (jawless hagfishes and lampreys) is unresolved and whether these WGD events underlie vertebrate phenotypic diversification remains elusive. Here we present the genome of the inshore hagfish, Eptatretus burgeri. Through comparative analysis with lamprey and gnathostome genomes, we reconstruct the early events in cyclostome genome evolution, leveraging insights into the ancestral vertebrate genome. Genome-wide synteny and phylogenetic analyses support a scenario in which 1R occurred in the vertebrate stem-lineage during the early Cambrian, and 2R occurred in the gnathostome stem-lineage, maximally in the late Cambrian-earliest Ordovician, after its divergence from cyclostomes. We find that the genome of stem-cyclostomes experienced an additional independent genome triplication. Functional genomic and morphospace analyses demonstrate that WGD events generally contribute to developmental evolution with similar changes in the regulatory genome of both vertebrate groups. However, appreciable morphological diversification occurred only in the gnathostome but not in the cyclostome lineage, calling into question the general expectation that WGDs lead to leaps of bodyplan complexity.

Contingency, repeatability, and predictability in the evolution of a prokaryotic pangenome.

Pangenomes exhibit remarkable variability in many prokaryotic species, much of which is maintained through the processes of horizontal gene transfer and gene loss. Repeated acquisitions of near-identical homologs can easily be observed across pangenomes, leading to the question of whether these parallel events potentiate similar evolutionary trajectories, or whether the remarkably different genetic backgrounds of the recipients mean that postacquisition evolutionary trajectories end up being quite different. In this study, we present a machine learning method that predicts the presence or absence of genes in the Escherichia coli pangenome based on complex patterns of the presence or absence of other accessory genes within a genome. Our analysis leverages the repeated transfer of genes through the E. coli pangenome to observe patterns of repeated evolution following similar events. We find that the presence or absence of a substantial set of genes is highly predictable from other genes alone, indicating that selection potentiates and maintains gene-gene co-occurrence and avoidance relationships deterministically over long-term bacterial evolution and is robust to differences in host evolutionary history. We propose that at least part of the pangenome can be understood as a set of genes with relationships that govern their likely cohabitants, analogous to an ecosystem's set of interacting organisms. Our findings indicate that intragenomic gene fitness effects may be key drivers of prokaryotic evolution, influencing the repeated emergence of complex gene-gene relationships across the pangenome.

Diversification dynamics of total-, stem-, and crown-groups are compatible with molecular clock estimates of divergence times.

Molecular evolutionary time scales are expected to predate the fossil evidence, but, particularly for major evolutionary radiations, they can imply extremely protracted stem lineages predating the origin of living clades, leading to claims of systematic overestimation of divergence times. We use macroevolutionary birth-death models to describe the range of total-group and crown-group ages expected under constant rates of speciation and extinction. We extend current predictions on origination times for crown- and total-groups, and extinction of stem-groups, demonstrating that there is broad variance in these predictions. Under constant rates of speciation and extinction, we show that the distribution of expected arthropod total-group ages is consistent with molecular clock estimates. The fossil record cannot be read literally, and our results preclude attempts to interpret the antiquity of clades based on the co-occurrence of stem- and crown-representatives.

Performance of A Priori and A Posteriori Calibration Strategies in Divergence Time Estimation.

Relaxed molecular clock methods allow the use of genomic data to estimate divergence times across the tree of life. This is most commonly achieved in Bayesian analyses where the molecular clock is calibrated a priori through the integration of fossil information. Alternatively, fossil calibrations can be used a posteriori, to transform previously estimated relative divergence times that were inferred without considering fossil information, into absolute divergence times. However, as branch length is the product of the rate of evolution and the duration in time of the considered branch, the extent to which a posteriori calibrated, relative divergence time methods can disambiguate time and rate, is unclear. Here, we use forward evolutionary simulations and compare a priori and a posteriori calibration strategies using different molecular clock methods and models. Specifically, we compare three Bayesian methods, the strict clock, uncorrelated clock and autocorrelated clock, and the non-Bayesian algorithm implemented in RelTime. We simulate phylogenies with multiple, independent substitution rate changes and show that correct timescales cannot be inferred without the use of calibrations. Under our simulation conditions, a posteriori calibration strategies almost invariably inferred incorrect rate changes and divergence times. The a priori integration of fossil calibrations is fundamental in these cases to improve the accuracy of the estimated divergence times. Relative divergence times and absolute timescales derived by calibrating relative timescales to geological time a posteriori appear to be less reliable than a priori calibrated, timescales.