Longitudinal Trends in Insurer Participation in Multisector Population Health Activities.

Healthcare organizations increasingly engage in activities to identify and address social determinants of health (SDOH) among their patients to improve health outcomes and reduce costs. While several studies to date have focused on the evolving role of hospitals and physicians in these types of population health activities, much less is known about the role health insurers may play. We used data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Public Health Systems for the period 2006 to 2018 to examine trends in health insurer participation in population health activities and in the multi-sector collaborative networks that support these activities. We also used a difference-in-differences approach to examine the impact of Medicaid expansion on insurer participation in population health networks. Insurer participation increased in our study period both in the delivery of population health activities and in the integration into collaborative networks that support these activities. Insurers were most likely to participate in activities focusing on community health assessment and policy development. Results from our adjusted difference-in-differences models showed variation in association between insurer participation in population health networks and Medicaid expansion (Table 2). Population health networks in expansion states experienced significant increases insurer participation in assessment (4.48 percentage points, P < .05) and policy and planning (7.66 percentage points, P < .05) activities. Encouraging insurance coverage gains through policy mechanisms like Medicaid expansion may not only improve access to healthcare services but can also act as a driver of insurer integration into population health networks.

Joint effects of Medicaid eligibility and fees on recession-linked declines in healthcare access and health status.

Whether Medicaid can function as a safety net to offset health risks created by health insurance coverage losses due to job loss is conditional on (1) the eligibility guidelines shaping the pathway for households to access the program for temporary relief, and (2) Medicaid reimbursement policies affecting the value of the program for both the newly and previously enrolled. We find states with more expansive eligibility guidelines lowered the healthcare access and health risk of coverage loss associated with rising unemployment during the 2007-2009 Great Recession. Rises in cost-related barriers to care associated with unemployment were smallest in states with expansive eligibility guidelines and higher Medicaid-to-Medicare fee ratios. Similarly, states whose Medicaid programs had expansive eligibility guidelines and higher fees saw the smallest recession-linked declines in self-reported good health. Medicaid can work to stabilize access to health care during periods of joblessness. Our findings yield important insights into the alignment of at least two Medicaid policies (i.e., eligibility and payment) shaping Medicaid's viability as a safety net.

Did Medicaid Reimbursements Shape the Effects of Medicaid Expansion on Access to Health Care Among the Low-Income Population?

BACKGROUND: Whether variation in Medicaid reimbursement fees influenced the impacts of the Medicaid expansions is not well understood. OBJECTIVE: We examine whether changes in health care access associated with Medicaid expansion are different in states with comparatively high Medicaid reimbursement rates compared against expanding in states with lower Medicaid reimbursement rates. DESIGN: Using a difference-in-difference-in-difference (DDD or triple-difference) regression approach, we compare relative differences in Medicaid expansion effects between lower and higher reimbursement states. PARTICIPANTS: 512,744 low-income adults aged 20-64 in the 2011-2019 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. MAIN MEASURES: Health insurance coverage status, unmet medical needs due to cost, regular source for health care, and a regular/scheduled checkup within the past year. KEY RESULTS: Medicaid expansion has significant and positive impacts on health coverage and access in both high- and low-fee states. In states with fee levels above the median Medicare-to-Medicaid ratios, expanding Medicaid eligibility reduced uninsurance rate by 15.2 percentage point (ppt, p < 0.01), shrank the cost-associated unmet medical need by 10.3 ppt (p < 0.01), improved access to usual source of care by 1.9 ppt (p < 0.1), and increased regular checkup by 14.4 ppt (p < 0.01), while such effects in low-fee states were 11.7 ppt (p < 0.01), 8.3 ppt (p < 0.01), 3.1 ppt (p < 0.1), and 12.3 ppt (p < 0.01), respectively. Our results suggest that Medicaid expansion effect on unmet medical need due to cost in higher-reimbursing states was 2.98 ppt (p < 0.05) larger than in lower-reimbursing states. Evidence suggests modest increases in health care access were more strongly associated with expansions in higher-fee states. CONCLUSIONS: Medicaid's fee structure should be considered as a factor influencing large-scale coverage expansions.

Association Between Community Social Vulnerability and Preventable Hospitalizations.

Preventable hospitalizations are common and costly events that burden patients and our health care system. While research suggests that these events are strongly linked to ambulatory care access, emerging evidence suggests they may also be sensitive to a patient's social, environmental, and economic conditions. This study examines the association between variations in social vulnerability and preventable hospitalization rates. We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of county-level preventable hospitalization rates for 33 states linked with data from the 2020 Social Vulnerability Index (SVI). Preventable hospitalizations were 40% higher in the most vulnerable counties compared with the least vulnerable. Adjusted regression results confirm the strong relationship between social vulnerability and preventable hospitalizations. Our results suggest wide variation in community-level preventable hospitalization rates, with robust evidence that variation is strongly related to a community's social vulnerability. The human toll, societal cost, and preventability of these hospitalizations make understanding and mitigating these inequities a national priority.

The Relationship Between Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Pandemic-linked Job Losses and Health Care Access and Household Financial Health in Medicaid Expansion and Nonexpansion States.

BACKGROUND: Unemployment associated with the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic was linked to financial insecurity and disruptions in access to health care. OBJECTIVE: To explore whether expanded access to Medicaid mitigated the likelihood of health and non-health financial hardship associated with pandemic-linked job loss. DESIGN: We estimate linear regression models comparing differences in the levels of outcomes attributable to pandemic-linked joblessness in Medicaid expansion and nonexpansion states. OBSERVATIONS: A total of 20,281 adults aged 19-64 were in the 2021 National Financial Capability Study. MEASURES: Our key exposure was job loss, layoffs, and furloughs, attributable to the COVID-19 pandemic. Outcomes under evaluation include indicators of health care access and household financial health. RESULTS: Relative to persons reporting pandemic-linked unemployment in nonexpansion states, adults experiencing pandemic-linked job loss in expansion states were less likely to report as uninsured [-6.2 percentage points (PPs); 95% CI: -10.8, -1.6; P < 0.01], having unpaid medical bills (-4.3 PP; 95% CI: -8, -0.6; P < 0.05), having unmet medical needs due to cost (-5.3 PP; 95% CI: -10.1, -0.5; P < 0.05), and having calls from debt collection agencies (-6.9 PP; 95% CI: -10.6, -3.1; P < 0.01). Patterns consistent with Medicaid acting as a safety net for the adverse financial effects of job loss were more pronounced for middle-income households. CONCLUSIONS: In economic downturns, such as the COVID-19 crisis, Medicaid can help insulate households from diminished health care access and financial distress associated with job loss.

Balancing Data Provision and Data Protection: A Natural Experiment With HIV and Syphilis Surveillance Data in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Public release of health data typically requires statistical disclosure limitation (SDL), but scant research demonstrates how real-world SDL affects data usability. Recent changes of federal data re-release policy allow a pseudo-counterfactual comparison of HIV and syphilis data suppression rules. METHODS: Incident counts (2019) of HIV and syphilis infections by county for Black and White populations were downloaded from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. We quantified and compared suppression status by disease and county between Black and White populations and calculated incident rate ratios for counties with statistically reliable counts. RESULTS: Approximately 50% of US counties have incident HIV counts suppressed for Black and White populations compared with only 5% for syphilis, which has an alternative suppression strategy. The county population sizes protected by a numerator disclosure rule (<4) spans several orders of magnitude. Calculations of incident rate ratios, used as a measure of health disparity, were impossible in the 220 counties most susceptible to an HIV outbreak. CONCLUSIONS: Balancing tradeoffs between providing and protecting data are key to health initiatives worldwide. We encourage an increase in empirical research on the impact of SDL, especially in the context of health disparities, and recommend new approaches to avoid the "oppression of data suppression."

Impact of state Medicaid expansion on cross-sector health and social service networks: Evidence from a longitudinal cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the impact of state Medicaid expansion on the delivery of population health activities in cross-sector health and social services networks. Community networks are multisector, interorganizational networks that provide services ranging from the direct provision of individual social services to the implementation of population-level initiatives addressing community outcomes. DATA SOURCES: We used data measuring the composition of cross-sector population health networks 2006-2018 National Longitudinal Survey of Public Health Systems (NALSYS) linked with the Area Health Resource File. STUDY DESIGN: A difference-in-differences approach was used to examine the impact of expansion on organization engagement in population health activities and network structure. DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS: Stratified random sampling of local public health jurisdictions in the United States. We restricted our data to jurisdictions serving populations of 100,000 or more and states that had NALSYS observations across all time periods, resulting in a final sample size of 667. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Results from our adjusted difference-in-differences estimates indicated that Medicaid expansion was associated with a 2.3 percentage point increase in the density of population health networks (p < 0.10). Communities in states that expanded Medicaid experienced significant increases in the participation of local public health, local government, hospital, nonprofit, insurer, and K-12 schools. Of the organizations with significant increases in expansion communities, nonprofits (7.7 percentage points, p < 0.01), local public health agencies (6.5 percentage points, p < 0.01), hospitals (5.8 percentage points, p < 0.01), and local government agencies (6.0 percentage points, p < 0.05) had the largest gains. CONCLUSIONS: Our study found increases in cross-sector participation in population health networks in states that expanded Medicaid compared with nonexpansion states, suggesting that additional coverage gains are associated with positive changes in population health network structure.

Comparison of Unemployment-Related Health Insurance Coverage Changes in Medicaid Expansion vs Nonexpansion States During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Importance: The COVID-19 pandemic has been associated with increased unemployment rates and long periods when individuals were without health insurance. Little is known about how Medicaid expansion facilitates Medicaid enrollment as a buffer to coverage loss owing to unemployment. Objective: To compare changes in health insurance coverage status associated with pandemic-related unemployment among previously employed adults in states that have vs have not expanded Medicaid eligibility. Design Setting and Participants: This cohort study included US adults aged 27 to 64 years who were employed at baseline in the 2020 to 2021 Current Population Survey's Annual Social and Economic Supplement, which included calendar years 2019 to 2020 (32 462 person-years). Data analyses were conducted between November 2021 and April 2022. Exposures: Job loss (ie, new unemployment) experienced during 2020. Main Outcomes and Measures: Primary outcomes were coverage status (ie, uninsured status) and source of coverage (ie, employer sponsored, marketplace, and Medicaid). Using 2-way person-by-year fixed-effects regression models, changes in coverage status associated with unemployment in states that expanded Medicaid were compared with states that did not expand Medicaid. Additional analyses were performed based on prepandemic coverage status. Results: The cohort included 16 231 adults (mean age, 46.8 [95% CI, 46.6-47.0] years; 51.6% women). New unemployment was associated with an increase of 2.9 (95% CI, 1.1-4.6) percentage points (P = .002) in the proportion of uninsured adults in Medicaid expansion states and an increase of 10.7 (95% CI, 2.4-18.9) percentage points (P = .01) in nonexpansion states. Workers were 5.4 (95% CI, 1.9-8.9) percentage points (P = .003) more likely to enroll in Medicaid after a job loss if they lived in a Medicaid expansion state compared with workers experiencing job loss in nonexpansion states. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study of US adults, unemployment-related Medicaid enrollment was more frequent in Medicaid expansion states during the COVID-19 pandemic. Medicaid expansion led to a smaller increase in uninsured adults because those who lost private insurance coverage (eg, employer sponsored) appeared more able to transition to Medicaid after job loss.

Combined impact of Medicare's hospital pay for performance programs on quality and safety outcomes is mixed.

BACKGROUND: Three major hospital pay for performance (P4P) programs were introduced by the Affordable Care Act and intended to improve the quality, safety and efficiency of care provided to Medicare beneficiaries. The financial risk to hospitals associated with Medicare's P4P programs is substantial. Evidence on the positive impact of these programs, however, has been mixed, and no study has assessed their combined impact. In this study, we examined the combined impact of Medicare's P4P programs on clinical areas and populations targeted by the programs, as well as those outside their focus. METHODS: We used 2007-2016 Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project State Inpatient Databases for 14 states to identify hospital-level inpatient quality indicators (IQIs) and patient safety indicators (PSIs), by quarter and payer (Medicare vs. non-Medicare). IQIs and PSIs are standardized, evidence-based measures that can be used to track hospital quality of care and patient safety over time using hospital administrative data. The study period of 2007-2016 was selected to capture multiple years before and after introduction of program metrics. Interrupted time series was used to analyze the impact of the P4P programs on study outcomes targeted and not targeted by the programs. In sensitivity analyses, we examined the impact of these programs on care for non-Medicare patients. RESULTS: Medicare P4P programs were not associated with consistent improvements in targeted or non-targeted quality and safety measures. Moreover, mortality rates across targeted and untargeted conditions were generally getting worse after the introduction of Medicare's P4P programs. Trends in PSIs were extremely mixed, with five outcomes trending in an expected (improving) direction, five trending in an unexpected (deteriorating) direction, and three with insignificant changes over time. Sensitivity analyses did not substantially alter these results. CONCLUSIONS: Consistent with previous studies for individual programs, we detect minimal, if any, effect of Medicare's hospital P4P programs on quality and safety. Given the growing evidence of limited impact, the administrative cost of monitoring and enforcing penalties, and potential increase in mortality, CMS should consider redesigning their P4P programs before continuing to expand them.

COVID-19-related Medicaid enrollment in Medicaid expansion and non-expansion states.

RESEARCH OBJECTIVE: To explore whether expanded Medicaid helps mitigate the relationship between unemployment due to COVID and being uninsured. Unanticipated unemployment spells are generally associated with disruptions in health insurance coverage, which could also be the case for job losses during the COVID-19 pandemic. Expanded access to Medicaid may insulate some households from long uninsurance gaps due to job loss. DATA SOURCE: Phase 1 of the Census Bureau's Experimental Household Pulse Survey covering April 23, 2020-July 21, 2020. STUDY DESIGN: We compare differences in health insurance coverage source and status linked to recent lob losses attributable to the COVID-19 pandemic in states that expanded Medicaid against states that did not expand Medicaid. DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS: Our analytical dataset was limited to 733,181 non-elderly adults aged 20-64. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Twenty-six percent of our study sample experienced an income loss between March 13, 2020, and the time leading up to the survey-16% experienced job losses (e.g., layoff, furlough) due to the COVID-19 crisis, and 11% had other reasons they were not working. COVID-linked job losses were associated with a 20 (p < 0.01) percentage-point (PPT) lower likelihood of having employer-sponsored health insurance (ESI). Relative to persons in states that did not expand Medicaid, persons in Medicaid expansion states experiencing COVID-linked job losses were 9 PPT (p < 0.01) more likely to report having Medicaid and 7 PPT (p < 0.01) less likely to be uninsured. The largest increases in Medicaid enrollment were among people who, based on their 2019 incomes, would not have qualified for Medicaid previously. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that expanded Medicaid eligibility may allow households to stabilize health care needs and they should become detached from private health coverage due to job loss during the pandemic. Households negatively affected by the pandemic are using Medicaid to insure themselves against the potential health risks they would incur while being unemployed.

The Relationship Between Unemployment and Health Insurance Coverage: Before and After the Affordable Care Act's Coverage Expansions.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to determine whether the Affordable Care Act's (ACA) major coverage expansions mitigated the impact of unemployment on health insurance coverage status. DATA SOURCE: A 2011-2019 versions of the American Community Survey developed by the University of Minnesota Integrated Public Use Microdata Series program. RESEARCH DESIGN: We use difference-in-difference-in-differences (ie, triple difference) regressions to compare changes in the short-run impacts of local unemployment rates before and after the ACA. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Before the ACA, rises in local unemployment were associated with uninsurance due to losses in private coverage (ie, both nongroup and employer sponsored).Following the ACA's full implementation, the link between employment and coverage was attenuated by access to publicly subsidized qualified health plans on the ACA's nongroup market, and enhanced access to Medicaid in states that expanded. Our findings suggest protections from unemployment-linked uninsured spells are largest in states that expanded Medicaid. CONCLUSIONS: Expanded access to coverage under the ACA could mitigate the adverse effects on insurance status and access to care historically linked to job loss. However, should the ACA be repealed, many households stand to lose their ability to turn to Medicaid or subsidized nongroup coverage as safety-net resources to offset the burdens of job loss.

A systematic review and meta-analysis of geographic differences in comorbidities and associated severity and mortality among individuals with COVID-19.

Several comorbidities have been shown to be associated with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) related severity and mortality. However, considerable variation in the prevalence estimates of comorbidities and their effects on COVID-19 morbidity and mortality have been observed in prior studies. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to determine geographical, age, and gender related differences in the prevalence of comorbidities and associated severity and mortality rates among COVID-19 patients. We conducted a search using PubMed, Scopus, and EMBASE to include all COVID-19 studies published between January 1st, 2020 to July 24th, 2020 reporting comorbidities with severity or mortality. We included studies reporting the confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19 on human patients that also provided information on comorbidities or disease outcomes. We used DerSimonian and Laird random effects method for calculating estimates. Of 120 studies with 125,446 patients, the most prevalent comorbidity was hypertension (32%), obesity (25%), diabetes (18%), and cardiovascular disease (16%) while chronic kidney or other renal diseases (51%, 44%), cerebrovascular accident (43%, 44%), and cardiovascular disease (44%, 40%) patients had more COVID-19 severity and mortality respectively. Considerable variation in the prevalence of comorbidities and associated disease severity and mortality in different geographic regions was observed. The highest mortality was observed in studies with Latin American and European patients with any medical condition, mostly older adults (≥ 65 years), and predominantly male patients. Although the US studies observed the highest prevalence of comorbidities in COVID-19 patients, the severity of COVID-19 among each comorbid condition was highest in Asian studies whereas the mortality was highest in the European and Latin American countries. Risk stratification and effective control strategies for the COVID-19 should be done according to comorbidities, age, and gender differences specific to geographical location.

Did Medicaid slow declines in access to health care during the great recession?

OBJECTIVE: We examine whether broadened access to Medicaid helped insulate households from declines in health coverage and health care access linked to the 2007-2009 Great Recession. DATA SOURCE: 2004-2010 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS). STUDY DESIGN: Flexible difference-in-difference regressions were used to compare the impact of county-level unemployment on health care access in states with generous Medicaid eligibility guidelines versus states with restrictive guidelines. DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS: Nonelderly adults (aged 19-64) in the BRFSS were linked to county unemployment rates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Local Area Unemployment Statistics Program. We created a Medicaid generosity index by simulating the share of a nationally representative sample of adults that would be eligible for Medicaid under each state's 2007 Medicaid guidelines using data from the 2007 Current Population Survey's Annual Social and Economic Supplement. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A percentage point (PPT) increase in the county unemployment rate was associated with a 1.3 PPT (95% CI: 0.9-1.6, P < .01) increase in the likelihood of being uninsured and a 0.86 PPT (95% CI: 0.6-1.1, P < .01) increase in unmet medical needs due to cost in states with restrictive Medicaid eligibility guidelines. Conversely, a one PPT increase in unemployment was associated with only a 0.64 PPT (P < .01) increase in uninsurance among states with the most generous eligibility guidelines. Among states in the fourth quartile of generosity (ie, most generous), rises in county-level unemployment were associated with a 0.68 PPT (P < .10) increase in unmet medical needs due to cost-a 21% smaller decrease relative to states with the most restrictive Medicaid eligibility guidelines. CONCLUSIONS: Increased access to Medicaid during the Great Recession mitigated the effects of increased unemployment on the rate of unmet medical need, particularly for adults with limited income.

Medicaid Access During Economic Distress: Lessons Learned From the Great Recession.

Medicaid enrollment increases during economic downturns which imply households using the public health insurance program during coverage gaps due to job loss. However, we provide new evidence demonstrating that the Medicaid program's countercyclical protections against economic downturns are largely concentrated in states with more generous Medicaid eligibility criteria for adults. We exploit the timing of the 2007-2009 Great Recession to compare trends in recession-linked Medicaid enrollment between states with more generous Medicaid eligibility guidelines and states with more restrictive guidelines. For similar effects of the recession, Medicaid enrollment grew larger states in with more generous Medicaid programs. Our work suggests for every 100 people becoming unemployed in states with a restrictive Medicaid program, about 96 would be uninsured, and about 11 would enroll in Medicaid. Conversely, about 49 would be uninsured in a state with more generous Medicaid guidelines and 57 would enroll in Medicaid.

Association Between Medicaid Expansion and Rates of Opioid-Related Hospital Use.

Importance: The rate of opioid-related emergency department (ED) visits and inpatient hospitalizations has increased rapidly in recent years. Medicaid expansions have the potential to reduce overall opioid-related hospital events by improving access to outpatient treatment for opioid use disorder. Objective: To examine the association between Medicaid expansions and rates of opioid-related ED visits and inpatient hospitalizations. Design, Setting, and Participants: A difference-in-differences observational design was used to compare changes in opioid-related hospital events in US nonfederal, nonrehabilitation hospitals in states that implemented Medicaid expansions between the first quarter of 2005 and the last quarter of 2017 with changes in nonexpansion states. All-payer ED and hospital discharges from 45 states in the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project FastStats were included. Exposures: State implementation of Medicaid expansions between 2005 and 2017. Main Outcomes and Measures: Rates of all opioid-related ED visits and inpatient hospitalizations, measured as the quarterly numbers of treat-and-release ED discharges and hospital discharges related to opioid abuse, dependence, and overdose, per 100 000 state population. Results: In the 46 states and District of Columbia included in the study, 1524 observations of emergency department data and 2219 observations of opioid-related inpatient hospitalizations were analyzed. The post-2014 Medicaid expansions were associated with a 9.74% (95% CI, -18.83% to -0.65%) reduction in the rate of opioid-related inpatient hospitalizations. There appeared to be no association between the pre-2014 or post-2014 Medicaid expansions and the rate of opioid-related ED visits (post-2014 Medicaid expansions, -3.98%; 95% CI, -14.69% to 6.72%; and pre-2014 Medicaid expansions, 1.02%; 95% CI, -5.25% to 7.28%). Conclusions and Relevance: Medicaid expansion appears to be associated with meaningful reductions in opioid-related hospital use, possibly attributable to improved care for opioid use disorder in other settings.

Trends in Uninsured Rates Before and After Medicaid Expansion in Counties Within and Outside of the Diabetes Belt.

OBJECTIVE: To examine trends in uninsured rates between 2012 and 2016 among low-income adults aged <65 years and to determine whether the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA), which expanded Medicaid, impacted insurance coverage in the Diabetes Belt, a region across 15 southern and eastern U.S. states in which residents have high rates of diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Data for 3,129 U.S. counties, obtained from the Small Area Health Insurance Estimates and Area Health Resources Files, were used to analyze trends in uninsured rates among populations with a household income ≤138% of the federal poverty level. Multivariable analysis adjusted for the percentage of county populations aged 50-64 years, the percentage of women, Distressed Communities Index value, and rurality. RESULTS: In 2012, 39% of the population in the Diabetes Belt and 34% in non-Belt counties were uninsured (P < 0.001). In 2016 in states where Medicaid was expanded, uninsured rates declined rapidly to 13% in Diabetes Belt counties and to 15% in non-Belt counties. Adjusting for county demographic and economic factors, Medicaid expansion helped reduce uninsured rates by 12.3% in Diabetes Belt counties and by 4.9% in non-Belt counties. In 2016, uninsured rates were 15% higher for both Diabetes Belt and non-Belt counties in the nonexpansion states than in the expansion states. CONCLUSIONS: ACA-driven Medicaid expansion was more significantly associated with reduced uninsured rates in Diabetes Belt than in non-Belt counties. Initial disparities in uninsured rates between Diabetes Belt and non-Belt counties have not existed since 2014 among expansion states. Future studies should examine whether and how Medicaid expansion may have contributed to an increase in the use of health services in order to prevent and treat diabetes in the Diabetes Belt.

Racial and Ethnic Disparities in COVID-19: Evidence from Six Large Cities.

As of June 2020, the coronavirus pandemic has led to more than 2.3 million confirmed infections and 121 thousand fatalities in the USA, with starkly different incidence by race and ethnicity. Our study examines racial and ethnic disparities in confirmed COVID-19 cases across six diverse cities-Atlanta, Baltimore, Chicago, New York City, San Diego, and St. Louis-at the ZIP code level (covering 436 "neighborhoods" with a population of 17.7 million). Our analysis links these outcomes to six separate data sources to control for demographics; housing; socioeconomic status; occupation; transportation modes; health care access; long-run opportunity, as measured by income mobility and incarceration rates; human mobility; and underlying population health. We find that the proportions of Black and Hispanic residents in a ZIP code are both positively and statistically significantly associated with COVID-19 cases per capita. The magnitudes are sizeable for both Black and Hispanic, but even larger for Hispanic. Although some of these disparities can be explained by differences in long-run opportunity, human mobility, and demographics, most of the disparities remain unexplained even after including an extensive list of covariates related to possible mechanisms. For two cities-Chicago and New York-we also examine COVID-19 fatalities, finding that differences in confirmed COVID-19 cases explain the majority of the observed disparities in fatalities. In other words, the higher death toll of COVID-19 in predominantly Black and Hispanic communities mostly reflects higher case rates, rather than higher fatality rates for confirmed cases.

Does Primary Care Provider Supply Influence Medicaid Acceptability?

BACKGROUND: Following the Affordable Care Act's Medicaid expansions, access to care improved through elevated coverage rates among the low-income population. In Michigan, a major factor contributing to improved access among low-income patients was increased Medicaid acceptance in primary care settings. OBJECTIVES: Prior evidence shows substantial geographic variation preacceptance and postacceptance of Medicaid. In this study, we determine whether physician's willingness to accept new Medicaid patients is moderated by the availability of other providers in close proximity. METHODS: The study uses Michigan simulated patient (ie, "secret shopper") data collected during 2014 and 2015, and applies a difference-in-differences styled event-study regression approach comparing trends in Medicaid acceptability and appointment scheduling between areas in Michigan with higher densities of primary care providers against those with lower densities of providers that could arguably be classified a health professional shortage areas. RESULTS: Through one year after Michigan's Medicaid expansion, practices in low-supply areas appeared no more likely (P>0.10) to turn away a newly insured Medicaid patient than a practice in a supply-rich area. The wait times for patients in a low-supply area were about a day longer (P<0.05) than for patients in supply-rich areas through 4 months after the expansion, though this difference dissipated through 8 and 12 months after the expansion. CONCLUSIONS: These results indicate that newly insured Medicaid patients are gaining access to care in settings with limited health care supply.

Did Health Care Reform Help Kentucky Address Disparities in Coverage and Access to Care among the Poor?

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact of Kentucky's full rollout of the Affordable Care Act on disparities in access to care due to poverty. DATA SOURCE: Restricted version of the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) for Kentucky and years 2011-2015. STUDY DESIGN: We use a difference-in-differences framework to compare trends before and after implementation of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) in health insurance coverage, several access measures, and health care utilization for residents in higher versus lower poverty ZIP codes. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Much of the reduction in Kentucky's uninsured rate appears driven by large uptakes in coverage from areas with higher concentrations of poverty. Residents in high-poverty communities experienced larger reductions, 8 percentage points (pp) in uninsured status and 7.5 pp in reporting unmet needs due to costs, than residents of lower poverty areas. These effects helped remove pre-ACA disparities in uninsured rates across these areas. CONCLUSION: Because we observe positive effects on coverage and reductions in financial barriers to care among those from poorer communities, our findings suggest that expanding Medicaid helps address the health care needs of the impoverished.