UK food and nutrition security during and after the COVID-19 pandemic.

The COVID-19 pandemic is a major shock to society in terms of health and economy that is affecting both UK and global food and nutrition security. It is adding to the 'perfect storm' of threats to society from climate change, biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation, at a time of considerable change, rising nationalism and breakdown in international collaboration. In the UK, the situation is further complicated due to Brexit. The UK COVID-19 F ood and N utrition S ecurity project, lasting one year, is funded by the Economic and Social Research Council and is assessing the ongoing impact of COVID-19 on the four pillars of food and nutrition security: access, availability, utilisation and stability. It examines the food system, how it is responding, and potential knock on effects on the UK's food and nutrition security, both in terms of the cascading risks from the pandemic and other threats. The study provides an opportunity to place the initial lessons being learnt from the on-going responses to the pandemic in respect of food and nutrition security in the context of other long-term challenges such as climate change and biodiversity loss.

Individual variation and population dynamics: lessons from a simple system.

The mapping of environment, through variation in individuals' life histories, to dynamics can be complex and often poorly known. Consequently, it is not clear how important it is dynamically. To explore this, I incorporated lessons from an empirical system, a soil mite, into an individual-based model. Individuals compete for resource and allocate this according to eight 'genetic' rules that specify investment in growth or reserves (which influences survival or fecundity), size at maturation and reproductive allocation. Density dependence, therefore, emerges from competition for food, limiting individual's growth and fecundity. We use this model to examine the role that genetic and phenotypically plastic variation plays in dynamics, by fixing phenotypes, by allowing phenotypes to vary plastically and by creating genetic variation between individuals. Variation, and how it arises, influences short- and long-run dynamics in a way comparable in magnitude with halving food supply. In particular, by switching variation on and off, it is possible to identify a range of processes necessary to capture the dynamics of the 'full model'. Exercises like this can help identify key processes and parameters, but a concerted effort is needed across many different systems to search for shared understanding of both process and modelling.

Indirect population dynamic benefits of altered life-history trade-offs in response to egg harvesting.

Variations in demographic rates due to differential resource allocation between individuals are important considerations in the development of accurate population dynamic models. Systematic harvesting can alter age structure and/or reduce population density, conferring indirect positive benefits on the source population as a result of a consequent redistribution of resources between the remaining individuals. Independently of effects mediated through changes in density and competition, demographic rates can also be influenced by within-individual competition for resources. Harvesting dependent life stages can reduce an individual's current reproductive costs, allowing increased investment in its future fecundity and survival. Although such changes in demographic rates are well known, there has been little exploration of the potential impact on population dynamics. We use empirical data collected from a successfully reintroduced population of the Mauritius kestrel Falco punctatus to explore the population consequences of manipulating reproductive effort through harvesting. Consequent increases in an individual's future fecundity and survival allow source populations to withstand longer and more intensive harvesting regimes without being exposed to an increase in extinction risk, increasing maximum sustainable yields. These effects may also buffer populations against the impacts of stochastic events, but directional shifts in environmental conditions that increase reproductive costs may have detrimental population-level effects.

The influence of context-dependent maternal effects on population dynamics: an experimental test.

Parental effects arise when either the maternal or paternal phenotype influences the phenotypes of subsequent generations. Simple analytical models assume maternal effects are a mechanism creating delayed density dependence. Such models predict that maternal effects can very easily lead to population cycles. Despite this, unambiguous maternal-effect mediated cycles have not been demonstrated in any system. Additionally, much evidence has arisen to invalidate the underlying assumption that there is a simple positive correlation between maternal performance and offspring performance. A key issue in understanding how maternal effects may affect population dynamics is determining how the expression of parental effects changes in different environments. In this study, we tested the hypothesis that maternal effects influence population dynamics in a context-dependent way. Populations of the soil mite, Sancassania berlesei, were set up at high density (500 eggs) or low density (50 eggs), with eggs that were either laid by young mothers or old mothers (a previously documented maternal effect in this system). The influence of maternal age on both population and egg and body-size dynamics was only observed in the populations initiated under low density rather than high density. This difference was attributable to the context-dependence of maternal effects at the individual level. In low-density (high food) conditions, maternal effects have an impact on offspring reproductive performance, creating an impact on the population growth rate. In high density (low food), maternal effects impact more on juvenile survival (not adult size or reproduction), creating a smaller impact on the population growth rate. This context dependence of effects at the population level means that, in fluctuating populations, maternal effects cause intermittent delayed density dependence that does not lead to persistent cycles.

How range shifts induced by climate change affect neutral evolution.

We investigate neutral evolution during range shifts in a strategic model of a metapopulation occupying a climate gradient. Using heritable, neutral markers, we track the spatio-temporal fate of lineages. Owing to iterated founder effects ('mutation surfing'), survival of lineages derived from the leading range limit is enhanced. At trailing limits, where habitat suitability decreases, survival is reduced (mutations 'wipe out'). These processes alter (i) the spatial spread of mutations, (ii) origins of persisting mutations and (iii) the generation of diversity. We show that large changes in neutral evolution can be a direct consequence of range shifting.

Maternal effects mediated by maternal age: from life histories to population dynamics.

1. Maternal effects describe how mothers influence offspring life histories. In many taxa, maternal effects arise by differential resource allocation to young, often identified by variation in propagule size, and which affects individual traits and population dynamics. 2. Using a laboratory model system, the soil mite Sancassania berlesei, we show that, controlling for egg size, older mothers lay eggs that hatch later, develop more slowly, and mature at larger body sizes. 3. Such differences in life histories lead to marked population dynamical effects lasting for multiple generations, as evidenced by an experiment initiated with similarly sized eggs that came from young or old mothers. Differences in maturation from the initial cohort led to differences in population structure and life history that propagated the initial differences over time. 4. Maternal-age effects, which are not related to gross provisioning of the egg and are therefore phenotypically cryptic, can have profound implications for population dynamics, especially if environmental variation can affect the age structure of the adult population.

Estimating individual contributions to population growth: evolutionary fitness in ecological time.

Ecological and evolutionary change is generated by variation in individual performance. Biologists have consequently long been interested in decomposing change measured at the population level into contributions from individuals, the traits they express and the alleles they carry. We present a novel method of estimating individual contributions to population growth and changes in distributions of quantitative traits and alleles. An individual's contribution to population growth is an individual's realized annual fitness. We demonstrate how the quantities we develop can be used to address a range of empirical questions, and provide an application to a detailed dataset of Soay sheep. The approach provides results that are consistent with those obtained using lifetime estimates of individual performance, yet is substantially more powerful as it allows lifetime performance to be decomposed into annual survival and fecundity contributions.

The impact of environmental fluctuations on structured discrete time population models: resonance, synchrony and threshold behaviour.

External forcing of a discrete time ecological system does not just add variation to existing dynamics but can change the dynamics. We study the mechanisms that can bring this about, focusing on the key concepts of excitation and suppression which emerge when analysing the power spectra of the system in linear approximation. Excitation, through resonance between the system dynamics and the external forcing, is the greater the closer the system is to the boundary of the stability region. This amplification means that the extinction of populations becomes possible sooner than expected and, conversely, invasion can be significantly delayed. Suppression and the consequent redistribution of power within the spectrum proves to be a function both of the connectivity of the network graph of the system and the way that external forcing is applied to the system. It is also established that colour in stochastic forcing can have a major impact, by enhancing resonance and by greater redistribution of power. This can mean a higher risk of extinction through larger fluctuations in population numbers and a higher degree of synchrony between populations. The implications of external forcing for stage-structured species, for populations in competition and for trophic web systems are studied using the tools and concepts developed in the paper.

Changes in maternal investment in eggs can affect population dynamics.

The way that mothers provision their offspring can have important consequences for their offspring's performance throughout life. Models suggest that maternally induced variation in life histories may have large population dynamical effects, even perhaps driving cycles such as those seen in forest Lepidoptera. The evidence for large maternal influences on population dynamics is unconvincing, principally because of the difficulty of conducting experiments at both the individual and population level. In the soil mite, Sancassania berlesei, we show that there is a trade-off between a female's fecundity and the per-egg provisioning of protein. The mother's position on this trade-off depends on her current food availability and her age. Populations initiated with 250 eggs of different mean sizes showed significant differences in the population dynamics, converging only after three generations. Differences in the growth, maturation and fecundity of the initial cohort caused differences in the competitive environment for the next generation, which, in turn, created differences in their growth and reproduction. Maternal effects in one generation can therefore lead to population dynamical consequences over many generations. Where animals live in environments that are temporally variable, we conjecture that maternal effects could result in long-term dynamical effects.

The evolution of oscillatory behavior in age-structured species.

A major challenge in ecology is to explain why so many species show oscillatory population dynamics and why the oscillations commonly occur with particular periods. The background environment, through noise or seasonality, is one possible driver of these oscillations, as are the components of the trophic web with which the species interacts. However, the oscillation may also be intrinsic, generated by density-dependent effects on the life history. Models of structured single-species systems indicate that a much broader range of oscillatory behavior than that seen in nature is theoretically possible. We test the hypothesis that it is selection that acts to constrain the range of periods. We analyze a nonlinear single-species matrix model with density dependence affecting reproduction and with trade-offs between reproduction and survival. We show that the evolutionarily stable state is oscillatory and has a period roughly twice the time to maturation, in line with observed patterns of periodicity. The robustness of this result to variations in trade-off function and density dependence is tested.

Large amplification in stage-structured models: Arnol'd tongues revisited.

The coexistence of periodic and point attractors has been confirmed for a range of stage-structured discrete time models. The periodic attractor cycles have large amplitude, with the populations cycling between extremely low and surprisingly high values when compared to the equilibrium level. In this situation a stable state can be shocked by noise of sufficient strength into a state of high volatility. We found that the source of these large amplitude cycles are Arnol'd tongues, special regions of parameter space where the system exhibits periodic behaviour. Most of these tongues lie entirely in that part of parameter space where the system is unstable, but there are exceptions and these exceptions are the tongues that lead to attractor coexistence. Similarity in the geometry of Arnol'd tongues over the range of models considered might suggest that this is a common feature of stage-structured models but in the absence of proof this can only be a useful working hypothesis. The analysis shows that although large amplitude cycles might exist mathematically they might not be accessible biologically if biological constraints, such as non-negativity of population densities and vital rates, are imposed. Accessibility is found to be highly sensitive to model structure even though the mathematical structure is not. This highlights the danger of drawing biological conclusions from particular models. Having a comprehensive view of the different mechanisms by which periodic states can arise in families of discrete time models is important in the debate on whether the causes of periodicity in particular ecological systems are intrinsic, environmental or trophic. This paper is a contribution to that continuing debate.

Rising burden of immature sheep ticks (Ixodes ricinus) on red grouse (Lagopus lagopus scoticus) chicks in the Scottish uplands.

The sheep tick Ixodes ricinus (L.) (Acari: Ixodidae) is an ectoparasite of major economic and pathogenic importance in Scotland. Its distribution in the Scottish uplands is assumed to be governed by the abundance and distribution of its definitive hosts (deer and sheep) and climatic variables such as temperature and rainfall. As the numbers of its major host in Scotland, red deer, have increased dramatically and climatic conditions have become more favourable, the level of parasitism could have been expected to rise. We use data gathered from tick counts on over 4000 red grouse chicks Lagopus lagopus scoticus Latham (Galliformes: Tetraonidae) in various experiments over the past 19 years to ascertain whether the intensity and prevalence of parasitism has been increasing. From 1985 to 2003 the average tick burden of a parasitized red grouse chick has grown from 2.60 +/- 1.12 ticks per chick to 12.71 +/- 1.44. Over this period the percentage of chicks of a given brood parasitized has also increased from 4 +/- 2% to 92 +/- 3%. The possible implications of this increase in parasitism for red grouse production are discussed.

The amplification of environmental noise in population models: causes and consequences.

Environmental variability is a ubiquitous feature of every organism's habitat. However, the interaction between density dependence and those density-independent factors that are manifested as environmental noise is poorly understood. We are interested in the conditions under which noise interacts with the density dependence to cause amplification of that noise when filtered by the system. For a broad family of structured population models, we show that amplification occurs near the threshold from stable to unstable dynamics by deriving an analytic formula for the amplification under weak noise. We confirm that the effect of noise is to sustain oscillations that would otherwise decay, and we show that it is the amplitude and not the phase that is affected. This is a feature noted in several recent studies. We study this phenomenon in detail for the lurchin and LPA models of population dynamics. We find that the degree of amplification is sensitive to both the noise input and life-history stage through which it acts, that the results hold for surprisingly high levels of noise, and that stochastic chaos (as measured by local Lyapunov exponents) is a concomitant feature of amplification. Further, it is shown that the temporal autocorrelation, or "color," of the noise has a major impact on the system response. We discuss the conditions under which color increases population variance and hence the risk of extinction, and we show that periodicity is sharpened when the color of the noise and dynamics coincide. Otherwise, there is interference, which shows how difficult it is in practice to separate the effects of nonlinearity and noise in short time series. The sensitivity of the population dynamics to noise when close to a bifurcation has wide-ranging consequences for the evolution and ecology of population dynamics.

The effects of grades on course enjoyment: did you get the grade you wanted?

BACKGROUND: Students tend to rate university courses more positively if they do well. Greenwald and Gillmore (1997a) suggested that it is not students' absolute grades that are important but rather how these grades compare to their expectations. However, this hypothesis is difficult to evaluate because few studies have measured grade expectations at the beginning of courses. AIM: By measuring students' grade expectations and enjoyment at several stages during a course, we hoped to evaluate the extent to which expectations modulate the impact of grades on course enjoyment. SAMPLE: Participants were 242 students in a university course in psychology. METHOD: Students were asked what grades they expected, and how much they were enjoying the course, at four stages. The effect of grades and grade expectations on enjoyment were analysed using restricted maximum likelihood (REML) and regression analyses. RESULTS: The best predictor of course enjoyment varied somewhat at different stages, but in general it was the extent to which students' grades surpassed their expectations. Students' expectations at the beginning of the course proved particularly influential. CONCLUSIONS: Grade expectations do influence how students react to course grades, but the prominent role of pre-course expectations suggests that it may be important to distinguish between grade aspirations and grade expectations. It appears to be students' aspirations--the grades they hope to achieve--that most strongly shape their emotional reactions, rather than the more realistic expectations they may form later in a course.

OPTIMAL REPRODUCTIVE EFFORT IN STOCHASTIC, DENSITY-DEPENDENT ENVIRONMENTS.

The amount of effort organisms should put into reproducing at any given time has been a matter of debate for many years. Early models suggested a simple rule of thumb: iteroparity should be favored when juvenile survival is relatively variable and semelparity when adult survival is relatively variable. When more mathematically complex models were developed, these simple conclusions were found to be special cases. Variability can select toward iteroparity or semelparity depending on a number of factors irrespective of relative adult/juvenile survival (e.g, the density-independent models of Orzack and Tuljapurkar). Using new techniques, we estimate the ESS reproductive effort for stage-structured models in density-dependent and stochastic conditions. We find that variability causes significant changes in reproductive effort, these changes are often small (± 10% of determinstic ESS effort, but up to 50% change in some instances), and the amount that effort increases or decreases depends on many factors (e.g., the deterministic population dynamics, the vital rates affected by density, the amount of variation, the correlations between the vital rates, the distribution from which the variation is drawn, and the deterministic ESS effort). In a variable environment, semelparity is the ESS in only 3.5% of cases; iteroparity is the rule.