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Importance: The effects of breast cancer incidence changes and advances in screening and treatment on outcomes of different screening strategies are not well known. Objective: To estimate outcomes of various mammography screening strategies. Design, Setting, and Population: Comparison of outcomes using 6 Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) models and national data on breast cancer incidence, mammography performance, treatment effects, and other-cause mortality in US women without previous cancer diagnoses. Exposures: Thirty-six screening strategies with varying start ages (40, 45, 50 years) and stop ages (74, 79 years) with digital mammography or digital breast tomosynthesis (DBT) annually, biennially, or a combination of intervals. Strategies were evaluated for all women and for Black women, assuming 100% screening adherence and "real-world" treatment. Main Outcomes and Measures: Estimated lifetime benefits (breast cancer deaths averted, percent reduction in breast cancer mortality, life-years gained), harms (false-positive recalls, benign biopsies, overdiagnosis), and number of mammograms per 1000 women. Results: Biennial screening with DBT starting at age 40, 45, or 50 years until age 74 years averted a median of 8.2, 7.5, or 6.7 breast cancer deaths per 1000 women screened, respectively, vs no screening. Biennial DBT screening at age 40 to 74 years (vs no screening) was associated with a 30.0% breast cancer mortality reduction, 1376 false-positive recalls, and 14 overdiagnosed cases per 1000 women screened. Digital mammography screening benefits were similar to those for DBT but had more false-positive recalls. Annual screening increased benefits but resulted in more false-positive recalls and overdiagnosed cases. Benefit-to-harm ratios of continuing screening until age 79 years were similar or superior to stopping at age 74. In all strategies, women with higher-than-average breast cancer risk, higher breast density, and lower comorbidity level experienced greater screening benefits than other groups. Annual screening of Black women from age 40 to 49 years with biennial screening thereafter reduced breast cancer mortality disparities while maintaining similar benefit-to-harm trade-offs as for all women. Conclusions: This modeling analysis suggests that biennial mammography screening starting at age 40 years reduces breast cancer mortality and increases life-years gained per mammogram. More intensive screening for women with greater risk of breast cancer diagnosis or death can maintain similar benefit-to-harm trade-offs and reduce mortality disparities.
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Neoplasias da Mama , Detecção Precoce de Câncer , Mamografia , Adulto , Idoso , Feminino , Humanos , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Fatores Etários , Neoplasias da Mama/diagnóstico , Neoplasias da Mama/mortalidade , Neoplasias da Mama/diagnóstico por imagem , Técnicas de Apoio para a Decisão , Reações Falso-Positivas , Incidência , Programas de Rastreamento , Uso Excessivo dos Serviços de Saúde , Guias de Prática Clínica como Assunto , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Modelos EstatísticosRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Surrogate endpoints for overall survival in patients with resectable non-small cell lung cancer receiving neoadjuvant therapy are needed to provide earlier treatment outcome indicators and accelerate drug approval. This study's main objectives were to investigate the association among pathological complete response, major pathological response, event-free survival and overall survival and to determine whether treatment effects on pathological complete response and event-free survival correlate with treatment effects on overall survival. METHODS: A comprehensive systematic literature review was conducted to identify neoadjuvant studies in resectable non-small cell lung cancer. Analysis at the patient level using frequentist and Bayesian random effects (hazard ratio [HR] for overall survival or event-free survival by pathological complete response or major pathological response status, yes vs no) and at the trial level using weighted least squares regressions (hazard ratio for overall survival or event-free survival vs pathological complete response, by treatment arm) were performed. RESULTS: In both meta-analyses, pathological complete response yielded favorable overall survival compared with no pathological complete response (frequentist, 20 studies and 6530 patients: HR = 0.49, 95% confidence interval = 0.42 to 0.57; Bayesian, 19 studies and 5988 patients: HR = 0.48, 95% probability interval = 0.43 to 0.55) and similarly for major pathological response (frequentist, 12 studies and 1193 patients: HR = 0.36, 95% confidence interval = 0.29 to 0.44; Bayesian, 11 studies and 1018 patients: HR = 0.33, 95% probability interval = 0.26 to 0.42). Across subgroups, estimates consistently showed better overall survival or event-free survival in pathological complete response or major pathological response compared with no pathological complete response or no major pathological response. Trial-level analyses showed a moderate to strong correlation between event-free survival and overall survival hazard ratios (R2 = 0.7159) but did not show a correlation between treatment effects on pathological complete response and overall survival or event-free survival. CONCLUSION: There was a strong and consistent association between pathological response and survival and a moderate to strong correlation between event-free survival and overall survival following neoadjuvant therapy for patients with resectable non-small cell lung cancer.
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Teorema de Bayes , Carcinoma Pulmonar de Células não Pequenas , Neoplasias Pulmonares , Terapia Neoadjuvante , Intervalo Livre de Progressão , Carcinoma Pulmonar de Células não Pequenas/mortalidade , Carcinoma Pulmonar de Células não Pequenas/patologia , Carcinoma Pulmonar de Células não Pequenas/cirurgia , Carcinoma Pulmonar de Células não Pequenas/terapia , Humanos , Neoplasias Pulmonares/mortalidade , Neoplasias Pulmonares/patologia , Neoplasias Pulmonares/cirurgia , Neoplasias Pulmonares/tratamento farmacológico , Neoplasias Pulmonares/terapia , Resultado do Tratamento , Análise dos Mínimos Quadrados , Intervalo Livre de Doença , Modelos de Riscos ProporcionaisRESUMO
Importance: Breast cancer mortality in the US declined between 1975 and 2019. The association of changes in metastatic breast cancer treatment with improved breast cancer mortality is unclear. Objective: To simulate the relative associations of breast cancer screening, treatment of stage I to III breast cancer, and treatment of metastatic breast cancer with improved breast cancer mortality. Design, Setting, and Participants: Using aggregated observational and clinical trial data on the dissemination and effects of screening and treatment, 4 Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) models simulated US breast cancer mortality rates. Death due to breast cancer, overall and by estrogen receptor and ERBB2 (formerly HER2) status, among women aged 30 to 79 years in the US from 1975 to 2019 was simulated. Exposures: Screening mammography, treatment of stage I to III breast cancer, and treatment of metastatic breast cancer. Main Outcomes and Measures: Model-estimated age-adjusted breast cancer mortality rate associated with screening, stage I to III treatment, and metastatic treatment relative to the absence of these exposures was assessed, as was model-estimated median survival after breast cancer metastatic recurrence. Results: The breast cancer mortality rate in the US (age adjusted) was 48/100â¯000 women in 1975 and 27/100â¯000 women in 2019. In 2019, the combination of screening, stage I to III treatment, and metastatic treatment was associated with a 58% reduction (model range, 55%-61%) in breast cancer mortality. Of this reduction, 29% (model range, 19%-33%) was associated with treatment of metastatic breast cancer, 47% (model range, 35%-60%) with treatment of stage I to III breast cancer, and 25% (model range, 21%-33%) with mammography screening. Based on simulations, the greatest change in survival after metastatic recurrence occurred between 2000 and 2019, from 1.9 years (model range, 1.0-2.7 years) to 3.2 years (model range, 2.0-4.9 years). Median survival for estrogen receptor (ER)-positive/ERBB2-positive breast cancer improved by 2.5 years (model range, 2.0-3.4 years), whereas median survival for ER-/ERBB2- breast cancer improved by 0.5 years (model range, 0.3-0.8 years). Conclusions and Relevance: According to 4 simulation models, breast cancer screening and treatment in 2019 were associated with a 58% reduction in US breast cancer mortality compared with interventions in 1975. Simulations suggested that treatment for stage I to III breast cancer was associated with approximately 47% of the mortality reduction, whereas treatment for metastatic breast cancer was associated with 29% of the reduction and screening with 25% of the reduction.
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Neoplasias da Mama , Adulto , Idoso , Feminino , Humanos , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Mama/diagnóstico por imagem , Mama/metabolismo , Neoplasias da Mama/diagnóstico , Neoplasias da Mama/epidemiologia , Neoplasias da Mama/mortalidade , Neoplasias da Mama/terapia , Detecção Precoce de Câncer , História do Século XX , História do Século XXI , Mamografia/métodos , Mortalidade/tendências , Receptores de Estrogênio/metabolismo , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Receptor ErbB-2/metabolismoRESUMO
PURPOSE: The neutralizing peptibody trebananib prevents angiopoietin-1 and angiopoietin-2 from binding with Tie2 receptors, inhibiting angiogenesis and proliferation. Trebananib was combined with paclitaxel±trastuzumab in the I-SPY2 breast cancer trial. PATIENTS AND METHODS: I-SPY2, a phase II neoadjuvant trial, adaptively randomizes patients with high-risk, early-stage breast cancer to one of several experimental therapies or control based on receptor subtypes as defined by hormone receptor (HR) and HER2 status and MammaPrint risk (MP1, MP2). The primary endpoint is pathologic complete response (pCR). A therapy "graduates" if/when it achieves 85% Bayesian probability of success in a phase III trial within a given subtype. Patients received weekly paclitaxel (plus trastuzumab if HER2-positive) without (control) or with weekly intravenous trebananib, followed by doxorubicin/cyclophosphamide and surgery. Pathway-specific biomarkers were assessed for response prediction. RESULTS: There were 134 participants randomized to trebananib and 133 to control. Although trebananib did not graduate in any signature [phase III probabilities: Hazard ratio (HR)-negative (78%), HR-negative/HER2-positive (74%), HR-negative/HER2-negative (77%), and MP2 (79%)], it demonstrated high probability of superior pCR rates over control (92%-99%) among these subtypes. Trebananib improved 3-year event-free survival (HR 0.67), with no significant increase in adverse events. Activation levels of the Tie2 receptor and downstream signaling partners predicted trebananib response in HER2-positive disease; high expression of a CD8 T-cell gene signature predicted response in HR-negative/HER2-negative disease. CONCLUSIONS: The angiopoietin (Ang)/Tie2 axis inhibitor trebananib combined with standard neoadjuvant therapy increased estimated pCR rates across HR-negative and MP2 subtypes, with probabilities of superiority >90%. Further study of Ang/Tie2 receptor axis inhibitors in validated, biomarker-predicted sensitive subtypes is warranted.
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Neoplasias da Mama , Proteínas Recombinantes de Fusão , Feminino , Humanos , Protocolos de Quimioterapia Combinada Antineoplásica/efeitos adversos , Teorema de Bayes , Neoplasias da Mama/tratamento farmacológico , Neoplasias da Mama/genética , Neoplasias da Mama/patologia , Terapia Neoadjuvante , Paclitaxel/efeitos adversos , Receptor ErbB-2/metabolismo , Receptor TIE-2 , Trastuzumab/efeitos adversosRESUMO
Importance: Bayesian clinical trial designs are increasingly common; given their promotion by the US Food and Drug Administration, the future use of the bayesian approach will only continue to increase. Innovations possible when using the bayesian approach improve the efficiency of drug development and the accuracy of clinical trials, especially in the context of substantial data missingness. Objective: To explain the foundations, interpretations, and scientific justification of the bayesian approach in the setting of lecanemab trial 201, a bayesian-designed phase 2 dose-finding trial; to demonstrate the efficiency of using a bayesian design; and to show how it accommodates innovations in the prospective design and also treatment-dependent types of missing data. Design, Setting, and Participants: This study was a bayesian analysis of a clinical trial comparing the efficacy of 5 lecanemab 201 dosages for treatment of early Alzheimer disease. The goal of the lecanemab 201 trial was to identify the effective dose 90 (ED90), the dose achieving at least 90% of the maximum effectiveness of doses considered in the trial. This study assessed the bayesian adaptive randomization used, in which patients were preferentially assigned to doses that would give more information about the ED90 and its efficacy. Interventions: Patients in the lecanemab 201 trial were adaptively randomized to 1 of 5 dose regimens or placebo. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary end point of lecanemab 201 was the Alzheimer Disease Composite Clinical Score (ADCOMS) at 12 months with continued treatment and follow-up out to 18 months. Results: A total 854 patients were included in trial treatment: 238 were in the placebo group (median age, 72 years [range, 50-89 years]; 137 female [58%]) and 587 were assigned to a lecanemab 201 treatment group (median age, 72 years [range, 50-90 years]; 272 female [46%]). The bayesian approach improved the efficiency of a clinical trial by prospectively adapting to the trial's interim results. By the trial's end more patients had been assigned to the better-performing doses: 253 (30%) and 161 (19%) patients to 10 mg/kg monthly and 10 mg/kg biweekly vs 51 (6%), 52 (6%), and 92 (11%) patients to 5 mg/kg monthly, 2.5 mg/kg biweekly, and 5 mg/kg biweekly, respectively. The trial identified 10 mg/kg biweekly as the ED90. The change in ADCOMS of the ED90 vs placebo was -0.037 at 12 months and -0.047 at 18 months. The bayesian posterior probability that the ED90 was superior to placebo was 97.5% at 12 months and 97.7% at 18 months. The respective probabilities of super-superiority were 63.8% and 76.0%. The primary analysis of the randomized bayesian lecanemab 201 trial found in the context of missing data that the most effective dose of lecanemab nearly doubles its estimated efficacy at 18 months of follow-up in comparison with restricting analysis to patients who completed the full 18 months of the trial. Conclusions and Relevance: Innovations associated with the bayesian approach can improve the efficiency of drug development and the accuracy of clinical trials, even in the context of substantial data missingness. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01767311.
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Doença de Alzheimer , Humanos , Feminino , Idoso , Teorema de BayesRESUMO
HSP90 inhibitors destabilize oncoproteins associated with cell cycle, angiogenesis, RAS-MAPK activity, histone modification, kinases and growth factors. We evaluated the HSP90-inhibitor ganetespib in combination with standard chemotherapy in patients with high-risk early-stage breast cancer. I-SPY2 is a multicenter, phase II adaptively randomized neoadjuvant (NAC) clinical trial enrolling patients with stage II-III breast cancer with tumors 2.5 cm or larger on the basis of hormone receptors (HR), HER2 and Mammaprint status. Multiple novel investigational agents plus standard chemotherapy are evaluated in parallel for the primary endpoint of pathologic complete response (pCR). Patients with HER2-negative breast cancer were eligible for randomization to ganetespib from October 2014 to October 2015. Of 233 women included in the final analysis, 140 were randomized to the standard NAC control; 93 were randomized to receive 150 mg/m2 ganetespib every 3 weeks with weekly paclitaxel over 12 weeks, followed by AC. Arms were balanced for hormone receptor status (51-52% HR-positive). Ganetespib did not graduate in any of the biomarker signatures studied before reaching maximum enrollment. Final estimated pCR rates were 26% vs. 18% HER2-negative, 38% vs. 22% HR-negative/HER2-negative, and 15% vs. 14% HR-positive/HER2-negative for ganetespib vs control, respectively. The predicted probability of success in phase 3 testing was 47% HER2-negative, 72% HR-negative/HER2-negative, and 19% HR-positive/HER2-negative. Ganetespib added to standard therapy is unlikely to yield substantially higher pCR rates in HER2-negative breast cancer compared to standard NAC, and neither HSP90 pathway nor replicative stress expression markers predicted response. HSP90 inhibitors remain of limited clinical interest in breast cancer, potentially in other clinical settings such as HER2-positive disease or in combination with anti-PD1 neoadjuvant chemotherapy in triple negative breast cancer.Trial registration: www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01042379.
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BACKGROUND: Lecanemab (BAN2401) is a humanized IgG1 monoclonal antibody that preferentially targets soluble aggregated Aß species (protofibrils) with activity at insoluble fibrils and slowed clinical decline in an 18-month phase 2 proof-of-concept study (Study 201; ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01767311) in 856 subjects with early Alzheimer's disease (AD). In this trial, subjects were randomized to five lecanemab dose regimens or placebo. The primary efficacy endpoint was change from baseline in the Alzheimer's Disease Composite Score (ADCOMS) at 12 months with Bayesian analyses. The key secondary endpoints were ADCOMS at 18 months and Clinical Dementia Rating-Sum-of-Boxes (CDR-SB) and Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive Subscale (ADAS-Cog14) at 18 months. The results have been published previously. Herein, we describe the results of sensitivity analyses evaluating the consistency of the lecanemab efficacy results in Study 201 at the identified dose, the ED90, across multiple statistical methods and multiple endpoints over the duration of the study. METHODS: The protocol-specified analysis model was a mixed model for repeated measures (MMRM). Sensitivity analyses address the consistency of the conclusions using multiple statistical methods. These include a disease progression model (DPM), a natural cubic spline (NCS) model, a quadratic mixed model (QMM), and 2 MMRMs with additional covariates. RESULTS: The sensitivity analyses showed positive lecanemab treatment effects for all endpoints and all statistical models considered. The protocol-specified ADCOMS analysis showed a 29.7% slower decline than placebo for ADCOMS at 18 months. The various other analyses of 3 key endpoints showed declines ranging from 26.5 to 55.9%. The results at 12 months are also consistent with those at 18 months. CONCLUSIONS: The conclusion of the primary analysis of the lecanemab Study 201 is strengthened by the consistently positive conclusions across multiple statistical models, across efficacy endpoints, and over time, despite missing data. The 18-month data from this trial was utilized in the design of the confirmatory phase 3 trial (Clarity AD) and allowed for proper powering for multiple, robust outcomes.
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Doença de Alzheimer , Humanos , Teorema de Bayes , Doença de Alzheimer/tratamento farmacológico , Estudo de Prova de Conceito , Projetos de PesquisaRESUMO
In the Circulating Cell-free Genome Atlas (NCT02889978) substudy 1, we evaluate several approaches for a circulating cell-free DNA (cfDNA)-based multi-cancer early detection (MCED) test by defining clinical limit of detection (LOD) based on circulating tumor allele fraction (cTAF), enabling performance comparisons. Among 10 machine-learning classifiers trained on the same samples and independently validated, when evaluated at 98% specificity, those using whole-genome (WG) methylation, single nucleotide variants with paired white blood cell background removal, and combined scores from classifiers evaluated in this study show the highest cancer signal detection sensitivities. Compared with clinical stage and tumor type, cTAF is a more significant predictor of classifier performance and may more closely reflect tumor biology. Clinical LODs mirror relative sensitivities for all approaches. The WG methylation feature best predicts cancer signal origin. WG methylation is the most promising technology for MCED and informs development of a targeted methylation MCED test.
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Ácidos Nucleicos Livres , Neoplasias , Humanos , Ácidos Nucleicos Livres/genética , Detecção Precoce de Câncer , Neoplasias/diagnóstico , Neoplasias/genética , Biomarcadores Tumorais/genética , Metilação de DNARESUMO
Measurable residual disease (MRD) is associated with relapse and survival in acute myeloid leukemia (AML). We aimed to quantify the impact of MRD on outcomes across clinical contexts, including its association with hematologic response and MRD assay sensitivity. We performed systematic literature review and meta-analysis of 48 studies that reported the association between MRD and overall survival (OS) or disease-free survival (DFS) in AML and provided information on the MRD threshold used and the hematologic response of the study population. Among studies limited to patients in complete remission (CR), the estimated 5-year OS for the MRD-negative and MRD-positive groups was 67% (95% Bayesian credible interval [CrI], 53-77%) and 31% (95% CrI, 18-44%), respectively. Achievement of an MRD-negative response was associated with superior DFS and OS, regardless of MRD threshold or analytic sensitivity. Among patients in CR, the benefit of MRD negativity was highest in studies using an MRD cutoff less than 0.1%. The beneficial impact of MRD negativity was observed across MRD assays and timing of MRD assessment. In patients with AML in morphological remission, achievement of MRD negativity is associated with superior DFS and OS, irrespective of hematologic response or the MRD threshold used.
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Transplante de Células-Tronco Hematopoéticas , Leucemia Mieloide Aguda , Humanos , Prognóstico , Teorema de Bayes , Neoplasia Residual/diagnóstico , Leucemia Mieloide Aguda/diagnóstico , Leucemia Mieloide Aguda/terapia , Indução de RemissãoRESUMO
Although specific temperature targets are debated, targeted temperature management (TTM) is a common treatment for postcardiac arrest patients. However, consistently implementing a TTM protocol is challenging, especially in a community hospital. Often, the protocols described in the literature include labor- and cost-intensive methods that are not feasible or sustainable in many health care settings. Esophageal temperature management (ETM) is a TTM method that can be easily utilized alone or combined with surface methods. We sought to evaluate ETM in a cohort of patients treated with TTM after cardiac arrest. Chart reviews were conducted of all patients treated with ETM after cardiac arrest at our community medical center. Initial patient temperature, time to target, supplemental methods (water blankets, chest wraps, or head wraps), and patient survival were extracted for analysis. A total of 54 patients were treated from August 2016 to November 2018; 30 received ETM only, 22 received supplemental cooling, and 2 had treatment discontinued before reaching target due to recovery. Target temperatures ranged from 32°C to 36°C, depending on provider preference. The median time to target temperature for the entire cohort was 219 minutes (interquartile range [IQR] 81-415). For the cohorts without, and with, supplemental cooling modalities, the median time to attain target temperature was 128 minutes (IQR 71-334), and 285 minutes (IQR 204-660), respectively. Survival to intensive care unit discharge was 51.9% for the entire cohort. Survivors exhibited longer times to achieve goal temperature (median 180 minutes in nonsurvivors vs. 255 minutes in survivors). ETM attains target temperature at a rate consistent with current guidelines and with similar performance to alternative modalities. As in other studies, surviving patients required longer times to reach target temperature.
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Reanimação Cardiopulmonar , Parada Cardíaca , Hipotermia Induzida , Parada Cardíaca Extra-Hospitalar , Humanos , Hipotermia Induzida/métodos , Temperatura Corporal , Parada Cardíaca/terapia , Parada Cardíaca/etiologia , Esôfago , Temperatura , Parada Cardíaca Extra-Hospitalar/terapia , Reanimação Cardiopulmonar/métodosRESUMO
We investigated the challenges of conducting IMPACT2, an ongoing randomized study that evaluates molecular testing and targeted therapy (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT02152254). Patients with metastatic cancer underwent tumor profiling and were randomized between the two arms when eligibility criteria were met (Part A). In Part B, patients who declined randomization could choose the study arm. In Part A, 69 (21.8%) of 317 patients were randomized; 78.2% were not randomized because of non-targetable alterations (39.8%), unavailability of clinical trial (21.8%), other reasons (12.6%), or availability of US Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-approved drugs for the indication (4.1%). In Part B, 32 (20.4%) of 157 patients were offered randomization; 16 accepted and 16 selected their treatment arm; 79.0% were not randomized (patient's/physician's choice, 29.3%; treatment selection prior to genomic reports, 16.6%; worsening performance status/death, 12.7%; unavailability of clinical trials, 6.4%; other, 6.4%; non-targetable alterations, 5.7%; or availability of FDA-approved drugs for the indication, 1.9%). In conclusion, although randomized controlled trials have been considered the gold standard for drug development, the execution of randomized trials in precision oncology in the advanced metastatic setting is complicated. We encountered various challenges conducting the IMPACT2 study, a large precision oncology trial in patients with diverse solid tumor types. The adaptive design of IMPACT2 enables patient randomization despite the continual FDA approval of targeted therapies, the evolving tumor biomarker landscape, and the plethora of investigational drugs. Outcomes for randomized patients are awaited.
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BACKGROUND: Multi-arm platform trials investigate multiple agents simultaneously, typically with staggered entry and exit of experimental treatment arms versus a shared control arm. In such settings, there is considerable debate whether to limit analyses for a treatment arm to concurrent randomized control subjects or to allow comparisons to both concurrent and non-concurrent (pooled) control subjects. The potential bias from temporal drift over time is at the core of this debate. METHODS: We propose time-adjusted analyses, including a "Bayesian Time Machine," to model potential temporal drift in the entire study population, such that primary analyses can incorporate all randomized control subjects from the platform trial. We conduct a simulation study to assess performance relative to utilizing concurrent or pooled controls. RESULTS: In multi-arm platform trials with staggered entry, analyses adjusting for temporal drift (either Bayesian or frequentist) have superior estimation of treatment effects and favorable testing properties compared to analyses using either concurrent or pooled controls. The Bayesian Time Machine generally provides estimates with greater precision and smaller mean square error than alternative approaches, at the risk of small bias and small Type I error inflation. CONCLUSIONS: The Bayesian Time Machine provides a compromise between bias and precision by smoothing estimates across time and leveraging all available data for the estimation of treatment effects. Prior distributions controlling the behavior of dynamic smoothing across time must be pre-specified and carefully calibrated to the unique context of each trial, appropriately accounting for the population, disease, and endpoints.
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Projetos de Pesquisa , Teorema de Bayes , Viés , Protocolos Clínicos , Simulação por Computador , HumanosRESUMO
This study's focus is the association of end-of-therapy (EOT) PET results with progression-free (PFS) and overall survival (OS) in patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma receiving first-line chemoimmunotherapy. We develop a Bayesian hierarchical model for predicting PFS and OS from EOT PET-complete response (PET-CR) using a literature-based meta-analysis of 20 treatment arms and a substudy of 4 treatment arms in 3 clinical trials for which we have patient-level data. The PET-CR rate in our substudy was 72%. The modeled estimates for hazard ratio (PET-CR/non-PET-CR) were 0.13 for PFS (95% CI 0.10, 0.16) and 0.10 for OS (CI 0.07, 0.12). Hazard ratios varied little by patient subtype and were confirmed by the overall meta-analysis. We link these findings to designing future clinical trials and show how our model can be used in adapting the sample size of a trial to accumulating results regarding treatment benefits on PET-CR and a survival endpoint.
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Linfoma Difuso de Grandes Células B , Humanos , Intervalo Livre de Doença , Teorema de Bayes , Ensaios Clínicos como Assunto , Linfoma Difuso de Grandes Células B/diagnóstico por imagem , Linfoma Difuso de Grandes Células B/tratamento farmacológico , Biomarcadores/análiseRESUMO
The oxidative addition of a silicon-chloride (Si-Cl) bond to a metal center can be a key reaction step in coordinative silicon chemistry, but this reaction is seldom observed. Herein, we report direct oxidative addition of the Si-Cl bonds of dimethyldichlorosilane (Me2SiCl2) and cyclotrimethylenedichlorosilane [(CH2)3SiCl2] to low-valent ruthenium complexes, yielding the 16e- chloro(organosilyl)ruthenium complexes [N3]Ru(Cl)(SiMe2Cl) (4a) and [N3]Ru(Cl)(SiCl(CH2)3) (4b) ([N3] = 2,6-(MesNâCMe)2C5H3N; Mes = 1,3,5-trimethylphenyl; Me = methyl). The reversible reaction of 4a with ethylene yields an 18e- ethylene adduct, in which an ethylene is subsequently inserted into a ruthenium-silicon (Ru-Si) bond to produce the 16e- complex [N3]Ru(Cl)(CH2CH2SiMe2Cl) (7). This study provides a good example of the direct generation of an ethylene insertion product, which is an important intermediate in the catalytic reduction of unsaturated molecules.
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Using pre-treatment gene expression, protein/phosphoprotein, and clinical data from the I-SPY2 neoadjuvant platform trial (NCT01042379), we create alternative breast cancer subtypes incorporating tumor biology beyond clinical hormone receptor (HR) and human epidermal growth factor receptor-2 (HER2) status to better predict drug responses. We assess the predictive performance of mechanism-of-action biomarkers from â¼990 patients treated with 10 regimens targeting diverse biology. We explore >11 subtyping schemas and identify treatment-subtype pairs maximizing the pathologic complete response (pCR) rate over the population. The best performing schemas incorporate Immune, DNA repair, and HER2/Luminal phenotypes. Subsequent treatment allocation increases the overall pCR rate to 63% from 51% using HR/HER2-based treatment selection. pCR gains from reclassification and improved patient selection are highest in HR+ subsets (>15%). As new treatments are introduced, the subtyping schema determines the minimum response needed to show efficacy. This data platform provides an unprecedented resource and supports the usage of response-based subtypes to guide future treatment prioritization.
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Neoplasias da Mama , Protocolos de Quimioterapia Combinada Antineoplásica/uso terapêutico , Biomarcadores Tumorais/metabolismo , Neoplasias da Mama/tratamento farmacológico , Neoplasias da Mama/genética , Feminino , Humanos , Terapia Neoadjuvante , Receptor ErbB-2/genética , Receptores de Estrogênio/metabolismo , Receptores de Progesterona/metabolismoRESUMO
Importance: Bayesian adaptive trial design has the potential to create more efficient clinical trials. However, a barrier to the uptake of bayesian adaptive designs for confirmatory trials is limited experience with how they may perform compared with a frequentist design. Objective: To compare the performance of a bayesian and a frequentist adaptive clinical trial design. Design, Setting, and Participants: This prospective cohort study compared 2 trial designs for a completed multicenter acute stroke trial conducted within a National Institutes of Health neurologic emergencies clinical trials network, with individual patient-level data, including the timing and order of enrollments and outcome ascertainment, from 1151 patients with acute stroke and hyperglycemia randomized to receive intensive or standard insulin therapy. The implemented frequentist design had group sequential boundaries for efficacy and futility interim analyses at 90 days after randomization for 500, 700, 900, and 1100 patients. The bayesian alternative used predictive probability of trial success to govern early termination for efficacy and futility with a first interim analysis at 500 randomized patients and subsequent interims after every 100 randomizations. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome was the sample size at end of study, which was defined as the sample size at which each of the studies stopped accrual of patients. Results: Data were collected from 1151 patients. As conducted, the frequentist design passed the futility boundary after 936 participants were randomized. Using the same sequence and timing of randomization and outcome data, the bayesian alternative crossed the futility boundary approximately 3 months earlier after 800 participants were randomized. Conclusions and Relevance: Both trial designs stopped for futility before reaching the planned maximum sample size. In both cases, the clinical community and patients would benefit from learning the answer to the trial's primary question earlier. The common feature across the 2 designs was frequent interim analyses to stop early for efficacy or for futility. Differences between how these analyses were implemented between the 2 trials resulted in the differences in early stopping.
Assuntos
Hiperglicemia , Acidente Vascular Cerebral , Teorema de Bayes , Humanos , Hiperglicemia/tratamento farmacológico , Insulina/uso terapêutico , Insulina Regular Humana , Estudos Prospectivos , Acidente Vascular Cerebral/tratamento farmacológico , Estados UnidosRESUMO
INTRODUCTION/AIMS: Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a fatal neurodegenerative illness with great unmet patient need. We aimed to evaluate whether mesenchymal stem cells induced to secrete high levels of neurotrophic factors (MSC-NTF), a novel autologous cell-therapy capable of targeting multiple pathways, could safely slow ALS disease progression. METHODS: This randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study enrolled ALS participants meeting revised El Escorial criteria, revised ALS Functional Rating Scale (ALSFRS-R) ≥25 (screening) and ≥3 ALSFRS-R points decline prior to randomization. Participants received three treatments of MSC-NTF or placebo intrathecally. The primary endpoint evaluated efficacy of MSC-NTF through a responder analysis and safety. A change in disease progression post-treatment of ≥1.25 points/mo defines a clinical response. A pre-specified analysis leveraged baseline ALSFRS-R of 35 as a subgroup threshold. RESULTS: Overall, MSC-NTF treatment was well tolerated; there were no safety concerns. Thirty-three percent of MSC-NTF and 28% of placebo participants met clinical response criteria at 28 wk (odds ratio [OR] = 1.33, P = .45); thus, the primary endpoint was not met. A pre-specified analysis of participants with baseline ALSFRS-R ≥ 35 (n = 58) showed a clinical response rate at 28 wk of 35% MSC-NTF and 16% placebo (OR = 2.6, P = .29). Significant improvements in cerebrospinal biomarkers of neuroinflammation, neurodegeneration, and neurotrophic factor support were observed with MSC-NTF, with placebo unchanged. DISCUSSION: The study did not reach statistical significance on the primary endpoint. However, a pre-specified subgroup suggests that MSC-NTF participants with less severe disease may have retained more function compared to placebo. Given the unmet patient need, the results of this trial warrant further investigation.
Assuntos
Esclerose Lateral Amiotrófica , Células-Tronco Mesenquimais , Esclerose Lateral Amiotrófica/diagnóstico , Método Duplo-Cego , Humanos , Fatores de Crescimento Neural/metabolismo , Transplante AutólogoRESUMO
Immunotherapy has revolutionized treatment for many hard-to-treat cancers but has yet to produce significant improvement in outcomes for patients with glioblastoma. This reflects the multiple and unique mechanisms of immune evasion and escape in this highly heterogeneous tumor. Glioblastoma engenders profound local and systemic immunosuppression and is remarkably effective at inducing T-cell dysfunction, posing a challenge to any immunotherapy-based approach. To overcome these mechanisms, multiple disparate modes of immune-oriented therapy will be required. However, designing trials that can evaluate these combinatorial approaches requires careful consideration. In this review, we explore the immunotherapy resistance mechanisms that have been encountered to date and how combinatorial approaches may address these. We also describe the unique aspects of trial design in both preclinical and clinical settings and consider endpoints and markers of response best suited for an intervention involving multiple agents.
Assuntos
Neoplasias Encefálicas , Glioblastoma , Neoplasias Encefálicas/patologia , Glioblastoma/patologia , Humanos , Tolerância Imunológica , Terapia de Imunossupressão , ImunoterapiaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Hypothermia is neuroprotective in some ischemia-reperfusion injuries. Ischemia-reperfusion injury may occur with traumatic subdural hematoma (SDH). This study aimed to determine whether early induction and maintenance of hypothermia in patients with acute SDH would lead to decreased ischemia-reperfusion injury and improve global neurologic outcome. METHODS: This international, multicenter randomized controlled trial enrolled adult patients with SDH requiring evacuation of hematoma within 6 h of injury. The intervention was controlled temperature management of hypothermia to 35 °C prior to dura opening followed by 33 °C for 48 h compared with normothermia (37 °C). Investigators randomly assigned patients at a 1:1 ratio between hypothermia and normothermia. Blinded evaluators assessed outcome using a 6-month Glasgow Outcome Scale Extended score. Investigators measured circulating glial fibrillary acidic protein and ubiquitin C-terminal hydrolase L1 levels. RESULTS: Independent statisticians performed an interim analysis of 31 patients to assess the predictive probability of success and the Data and Safety Monitoring Board recommended the early termination of the study because of futility. Thirty-two patients, 16 per arm, were analyzed. Favorable 6-month Glasgow Outcome Scale Extended outcomes were not statistically significantly different between hypothermia vs. normothermia groups (6 of 16, 38% vs. 4 of 16, 25%; odds ratio 1.8 [95% confidence interval 0.39 to ∞], p = .35). Plasma levels of glial fibrillary acidic protein (p = .036), but not ubiquitin C-terminal hydrolase L1 (p = .26), were lower in the patients with favorable outcome compared with those with unfavorable outcome, but differences were not identified by temperature group. Adverse events were similar between groups. CONCLUSIONS: This trial of hypothermia after acute SDH evacuation was terminated because of a low predictive probability of meeting the study objectives. There was no statistically significant difference in functional outcome identified between temperature groups.