RESUMO
The cyanobacterial species Raphidiopsis raciborskii (Woloszynska) Aguilera et al. has a high invasiveness potential, which in less than a century leads to its cosmopolitan spread. In the temperate climate of Europe, R. raciborskii has been reported in many countries, but there is still a lack of detailed information about the current status of its distribution in lakes of Bulgaria, as a part of the southeastern range of its spread in Europe. We investigated the distribution of the species using data on the phytoplankton of 122 lakes surveyed during 13-years period (2009-2022). The species was found in 33 lakes (up to 324 m asl), and 14 new localities were registered during the studied period. The results reveal that the number of lakes with the presence of R. raciborskii (27 % of all research lakes) and its contribution to the total phytoplankton biomass, has increased significantly over the last decade. The species has successfully adapted and dominated the phytoplankton in 9 lakes, forming a bloom in 8 of them. The dominant position of R. raciborskii causes loss of species and functional diversity of phytoplankton and displaces the native bloom-forming cyanobacteria. Lakes with and without the species were compared based on the available data on bioclimatic and local environmental variables. Statistically significant differences were established with respect to water transparency, conductivity, maximum depth and maximum air temperature in the warmest month. Species distribution models (SDMs) were used to identify lakes in high risk of future invasion by R. raciborskii. The results of the SDMs implementation confirmed the high maximum air temperature and low water transparency to be important predictors of the occurrence of R. raciborskii in freshwater lakes in Bulgaria. In the areas with high summer temperatures the most suitable for R. raciborskii development were found to be shallow polymictic or medium deep lakes with small surface area and low water transparency. In areas with a suitable climate, the large, deep reservoirs with high transparency as well as macrophyte dominated lakes have a low probability of occurrence of R. raciborskii. Future colonization of lakes above 500 m asl (but most likely below 700 m asl) is also possible, especially in the conditions of global warming. SDMs account for climatic and biogeographic differences of lakes and could help in elucidating the underlying factors that control the occurrence and adaptation of R. raciborskii in a given area.
