Statistical detection of synergy: New methods and a comparative study.

Combination therapies are increasingly adopted as the standard of care for various diseases to improve treatment response, minimise the development of resistance and/or minimise adverse events. Therefore, synergistic combinations are screened early in the drug discovery process, in which their potential is evaluated by comparing the observed combination effect to that expected under a null model. Such methodology is implemented in the BIGL R-package which allows for a quick screening of drug combinations. We extend the meanR and maxR tests from this package by allowing non-constant variance of the responses and by extending the list of null models (Loewe, Loewe2, HSA, Bliss). These new tests are evaluated in a comprehensive simulation study under various models for additivity and synergy, various monotherapeutic dose-response models (complete, partial and incomplete responders) and various types of deviation from the constant variance assumption. In addition, the BIGL package is extended with bootstrap confidence intervals for the individual off-axis points and for the overall synergy strength, which were demonstrated to have reliable coverage and can complement the existing tests. We conclude that the differences in performance between the different null models are small and depend on the simulation scenario. As a result, the choice of null model should be driven by expert knowledge on the particular problem. Finally, we demonstrate the new features of the BIGL package and the difference between the synergy models on a real dataset from drug discovery. The BIGL package is available at CRAN (https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=BIGL) and as a Shiny app (https://synergy.openanalytics.eu/app).

Sequence count data are poorly fit by the negative binomial distribution.

Sequence count data are commonly modelled using the negative binomial (NB) distribution. Several empirical studies, however, have demonstrated that methods based on the NB-assumption do not always succeed in controlling the false discovery rate (FDR) at its nominal level. In this paper, we propose a dedicated statistical goodness of fit test for the NB distribution in regression models and demonstrate that the NB-assumption is violated in many publicly available RNA-Seq and 16S rRNA microbiome datasets. The zero-inflated NB distribution was not found to give a substantially better fit. We also show that the NB-based tests perform worse on the features for which the NB-assumption was violated than on the features for which no significant deviation was detected. This gives an explanation for the poor behaviour of NB-based tests in many published evaluation studies. We conclude that nonparametric tests should be preferred over parametric methods.

Model-based joint visualization of multiple compositional omics datasets.

The integration of multiple omics datasets measured on the same samples is a challenging task: data come from heterogeneous sources and vary in signal quality. In addition, some omics data are inherently compositional, e.g. sequence count data. Most integrative methods are limited in their ability to handle covariates, missing values, compositional structure and heteroscedasticity. In this article we introduce a flexible model-based approach to data integration to address these current limitations: COMBI. We combine concepts, such as compositional biplots and log-ratio link functions with latent variable models, and propose an attractive visualization through multiplots to improve interpretation. Using real data examples and simulations, we illustrate and compare our method with other data integration techniques. Our algorithm is available in the R-package combi.

High dimensional surrogacy: computational aspects of an upscaled analysis.

Identification of genomic biomarkers is an important area of research in the context of drug discovery experiments. These experiments typically consist of several high dimensional datasets that contain information about a set of drugs (compounds) under development. This type of data structure introduces the challenge of multi-source data integration. High-Performance Computing (HPC) has become an important tool for everyday research tasks. In the context of drug discovery, high dimensional multi-source data needs to be analyzed to identify the biological pathways related to the new set of drugs under development. In order to process all information contained in the datasets, HPC techniques are required. Even though R packages for parallel computing are available, they are not optimized for a specific setting and data structure. In this article, we propose a new framework, for data analysis, to use R in a computer cluster. The proposed data analysis workflow is applied to a multi-source high dimensional drug discovery dataset and compared with a few existing R packages for parallel computing.

A unified framework for unconstrained and constrained ordination of microbiome read count data.

Explorative visualization techniques provide a first summary of microbiome read count datasets through dimension reduction. A plethora of dimension reduction methods exists, but many of them focus primarily on sample ordination, failing to elucidate the role of the bacterial species. Moreover, implicit but often unrealistic assumptions underlying these methods fail to account for overdispersion and differences in sequencing depth, which are two typical characteristics of sequencing data. We combine log-linear models with a dispersion estimation algorithm and flexible response function modelling into a framework for unconstrained and constrained ordination. The method is able to cope with differences in dispersion between taxa and varying sequencing depths, to yield meaningful biological patterns. Moreover, it can correct for observed technical confounders, whereas other methods are adversely affected by these artefacts. Unlike distance-based ordination methods, the assumptions underlying our method are stated explicitly and can be verified using simple diagnostics. The combination of unconstrained and constrained ordination in the same framework is unique in the field and facilitates microbiome data exploration. We illustrate the advantages of our method on simulated and real datasets, while pointing out flaws in existing methods. The algorithms for fitting and plotting are available in the R-package RCM.

A broken promise: microbiome differential abundance methods do not control the false discovery rate.

High-throughput sequencing technologies allow easy characterization of the human microbiome, but the statistical methods to analyze microbiome data are still in their infancy. Differential abundance methods aim at detecting associations between the abundances of bacterial species and subject grouping factors. The results of such methods are important to identify the microbiome as a prognostic or diagnostic biomarker or to demonstrate efficacy of prodrug or antibiotic drugs. Because of a lack of benchmarking studies in the microbiome field, no consensus exists on the performance of the statistical methods. We have compared a large number of popular methods through extensive parametric and nonparametric simulation as well as real data shuffling algorithms. The results are consistent over the different approaches and all point to an alarming excess of false discoveries. This raises great doubts about the reliability of discoveries in past studies and imperils reproducibility of microbiome experiments. To further improve method benchmarking, we introduce a new simulation tool that allows to generate correlated count data following any univariate count distribution; the correlation structure may be inferred from real data. Most simulation studies discard the correlation between species, but our results indicate that this correlation can negatively affect the performance of statistical methods.

Diffusion kurtosis imaging allows the early detection and longitudinal follow-up of amyloid-ß-induced pathology.

BACKGROUND: Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a progressive neurodegenerative disorder and the most common cause of dementia in the elderly population. In this study, we used the APP/PS1 transgenic mouse model to explore the feasibility of using diffusion kurtosis imaging (DKI) as a tool for the early detection of microstructural changes in the brain due to amyloid-ß (Aß) plaque deposition. METHODS: We longitudinally acquired DKI data of wild-type (WT) and APP/PS1 mice at 2, 4, 6 and 8 months of age, after which these mice were sacrificed for histological examination. Three additional cohorts of mice were also included at 2, 4 and 6 months of age to allow voxel-based co-registration between diffusion tensor and diffusion kurtosis  metrics and immunohistochemistry. RESULTS: Changes were observed in diffusion tensor (DT) and diffusion kurtosis (DK) metrics in many of the 23 regions of interest that were analysed. Mean and axial kurtosis were greatly increased owing to Aß-induced pathological changes in the motor cortex of APP/PS1 mice at 4, 6 and 8 months of age. Additionally, fractional anisotropy (FA) was decreased in APP/PS1 mice at these respective ages. Linear discriminant analysis of the motor cortex data indicated that combining diffusion tensor and diffusion kurtosis metrics permits improved separation of WT from APP/PS1 mice compared with either diffusion tensor or diffusion kurtosis metrics alone. We observed that mean kurtosis and FA are the critical metrics for a correct genotype classification. Furthermore, using a newly developed platform to co-register the in vivo diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging with multiple 3D histological stacks, we found high correlations between DK metrics and anti-Aß (clone 4G8) antibody, glial fibrillary acidic protein, ionised calcium-binding adapter molecule 1 and myelin basic protein immunohistochemistry. Finally, we observed reduced FA in the septal nuclei of APP/PS1 mice at all ages investigated. The latter was at least partially also observed by voxel-based statistical parametric mapping, which showed significantly reduced FA in the septal nuclei, as well as in the corpus callosum, of 8-month-old APP/PS1 mice compared with WT mice. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that DKI metrics hold tremendous potential for the early detection and longitudinal follow-up of Aß-induced pathology.

Intergenerational transfer of antibiotic-perturbed microbiota enhances colitis in susceptible mice.

Antibiotic exposure in children has been associated with the risk of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Antibiotic use in children or in their pregnant mother can affect how the intestinal microbiome develops, so we asked whether the transfer of an antibiotic-perturbed microbiota from mothers to their children could affect their risk of developing IBD. Here we demonstrate that germ-free adult pregnant mice inoculated with a gut microbial community shaped by antibiotic exposure transmitted their perturbed microbiota to their offspring with high fidelity. Without any direct or continued exposure to antibiotics, this dysbiotic microbiota in the offspring remained distinct from controls for at least 21 weeks. By using both IL-10-deficient and wild-type mothers, we showed that both inoculum and genotype shape microbiota populations in the offspring. Because IL10-/- mice are genetically susceptible to colitis, we could assess the risk due to maternal transmission of an antibiotic-perturbed microbiota. We found that the IL10-/- offspring that had received the perturbed gut microbiota developed markedly increased colitis. Taken together, our findings indicate that antibiotic exposure shaping the maternal gut microbiota has effects that extend to the offspring, with both ecological and long-term disease consequences.

A single early-in-life macrolide course has lasting effects on murine microbial network topology and immunity.

Broad-spectrum antibiotics are frequently prescribed to children. Early childhood represents a dynamic period for the intestinal microbial ecosystem, which is readily shaped by environmental cues; antibiotic-induced disruption of this sensitive community may have long-lasting host consequences. Here we demonstrate that a single pulsed macrolide antibiotic treatment (PAT) course early in life is sufficient to lead to durable alterations to the murine intestinal microbiota, ileal gene expression, specific intestinal T-cell populations, and secretory IgA expression. A PAT-perturbed microbial community is necessary for host effects and sufficient to transfer delayed secretory IgA expression. Additionally, early-life antibiotic exposure has lasting and transferable effects on microbial community network topology. Our results indicate that a single early-life macrolide course can alter the microbiota and modulate host immune phenotypes that persist long after exposure has ceased.High or multiple doses of macrolide antibiotics, when given early in life, can perturb the metabolic and immunological development of lab mice. Here, Ruiz et al. show that even a single macrolide course, given early in life, leads to long-lasting changes in the gut microbiota and immune system of mice.

A web application for sample size and power calculation in case-control microbiome studies.

UNLABELLED: : When designing a case-control study to investigate differences in microbial composition, it is fundamental to assess the sample sizes needed to detect an hypothesized difference with sufficient statistical power. Our application includes power calculation for (i) a recoded version of the two-sample generalized Wald test of the 'HMP' R-package for comparing community composition, and (ii) the Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney test for comparing operational taxonomic unit-specific abundances between two samples (optional). The simulation-based power calculations make use of the Dirichlet-Multinomial model to describe and generate abundances. The web interface allows for easy specification of sample and effect sizes. As an illustration of our application, we compared the statistical power of the two tests, with and without stratification of samples. We observed that statistical power increases considerably when stratification is employed, meaning that less samples are needed to detect the same effect size with the same power. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: The web interface is written in R code using Shiny (RStudio Inc., 2016) and it is available at https://fedematt.shinyapps.io/shinyMB The R code for the recoded generalized Wald test can be found at https://github.com/mafed/msWaldHMP CONTACT: Federico.Mattiello@UGent.be.

Translation of disease associated gene signatures across tissues.

It has recently been shown that disease associated gene signatures can be identified by profiling tissue other than the disease related tissue. In this paper, we investigate gene signatures for Irritable Bowel Syndrome (IBS) using gene expression profiling of both disease related tissue (colon) and surrogate tissue (rectum). Gene specific joint ANOVA models were used to investigate differentially expressed genes between the IBS patients and the healthy controls taken into account both intra and inter tissue dependencies among expression levels of the same gene. Classification algorithms in combination with feature selection methods were used to investigate the predictive power of gene expression levels from the surrogate and the target tissues. We conclude based on the analyses that expression profiles of the colon and the rectum tissue could result in better predictive accuracy if the disease associated genes are known.

ViVaMBC: estimating viral sequence variation in complex populations from illumina deep-sequencing data using model-based clustering.

BACKGROUND: Deep-sequencing allows for an in-depth characterization of sequence variation in complex populations. However, technology associated errors may impede a powerful assessment of low-frequency mutations. Fortunately, base calls are complemented with quality scores which are derived from a quadruplet of intensities, one channel for each nucleotide type for Illumina sequencing. The highest intensity of the four channels determines the base that is called. Mismatch bases can often be corrected by the second best base, i.e. the base with the second highest intensity in the quadruplet. A virus variant model-based clustering method, ViVaMBC, is presented that explores quality scores and second best base calls for identifying and quantifying viral variants. ViVaMBC is optimized to call variants at the codon level (nucleotide triplets) which enables immediate biological interpretation of the variants with respect to their antiviral drug responses. RESULTS: Using mixtures of HCV plasmids we show that our method accurately estimates frequencies down to 0.5%. The estimates are unbiased when average coverages of 25,000 are reached. A comparison with the SNP-callers V-Phaser2, ShoRAH, and LoFreq shows that ViVaMBC has a superb sensitivity and specificity for variants with frequencies above 0.4%. Unlike the competitors, ViVaMBC reports a higher number of false-positive findings with frequencies below 0.4% which might partially originate from picking up artificial variants introduced by errors in the sample and library preparation step. CONCLUSIONS: ViVaMBC is the first method to call viral variants directly at the codon level. The strength of the approach lies in modeling the error probabilities based on the quality scores. Although the use of second best base calls appeared very promising in our data exploration phase, their utility was limited. They provided a slight increase in sensitivity, which however does not warrant the additional computational cost of running the offline base caller. Apparently a lot of information is already contained in the quality scores enabling the model based clustering procedure to adjust the majority of the sequencing errors. Overall the sensitivity of ViVaMBC is such that technical constraints like PCR errors start to form the bottleneck for low frequency variant detection.

A new modeling approach for quantifying expert opinion in the drug discovery process.

Expert opinion plays an important role when choosing clusters of chemical compounds for further investigation. Often, the process by which the clusters are assigned to the experts for evaluation, the so-called selection process, and the qualitative ratings given by the experts to the clusters (chosen/not chosen) need to be jointly modeled to avoid bias. This approach is referred to as the joint modeling approach. However, misspecifying the selection model may impact the estimation and inferences on parameters in the rating model, which are of most scientific interest. We propose to incorporate the selection process into the analysis by adding a new set of random effects to the rating model and, in this way, avoid the need to model it parametrically. This approach is referred to as the combined model approach. Through simulations, the performance of the combined and joint models was compared in terms of bias and confidence interval coverage. The estimates from the combined model were nearly unbiased, and the derived confidence intervals had coverage probability around 95% in all scenarios considered. In contrast, the estimates from the joint model were severely biased under some form of misspecification of the selection model, and fitting the model was often numerically challenging. The results show that the combined model may offer a safer alternative on which to base inferences when there are doubts about the validity of the selection model. Importantly, thanks to its greater numerical stability, the combined model may outperform the joint model even when the latter is correctly specified.

Impact of selection bias on the evaluation of clusters of chemical compounds in the drug discovery process.

Expert opinion plays an important role when selecting promising clusters of chemical compounds in the drug discovery process. Indeed, experts can qualitatively assess the potential of each cluster, and with appropriate statistical methods, these qualitative assessments can be quantified into a success probability for each of them. However, one crucial element often overlooked is the procedure by which the clusters are assigned to/selected by the experts for evaluation. In the present work, the impact such a procedure may have on the statistical analysis and the entire evaluation process is studied. It has been shown that some implementations of the selection procedure may seriously compromise the validity of the evaluation even when the rating and selection processes are independent. Consequently, the fully random allocation of the clusters to the experts is strongly advocated.

Quality control of Platinum Spike dataset by probe-level mixed models.

Benchmark datasets are important for the validation and optimization of the analysis routes. Lately, a new benchmark dataset, 'Platinum Spike', for the Affymetrix GeneChip experiments has been introduced. We performed a quality check of the Platinum Spike dataset by using probe-level linear mixed models. The results have shown that there are 'empty' probe sets detecting transcripts, spiked in at different concentrations, and, reversely, there are probe sets that do not detect transcripts, spiked in at different concentrations, even though they were designed to do so. We proposed a formal inference procedure for testing the assumption of independence of all technical replicates in the data and concluded that for almost 10% of probe sets arrays cannot be treated independently, which has strong implications for the normalization procedures and testing for the differential expression. The proposed diagnostics procedure is used to facilitate a thorough exploration of gene expression Affymetrix data beyond the preprocessing and differential expression analysis.

Comparison of methods for the selection of genomic biomarkers.

In recent years, a lot of attention is placed on the selection and evaluation of biomarkers in microarray experiments. Two sets of biomarkers are of importance, namely therapeutic and prognostic. The therapeutic biomarkers would give us information on the response of the genes to treatment in relation to the response of the clinical outcome to the same treatments, whereas the prognostic biomarkers enable us to predict the clinical outcome irrespective of treatments and other confounding factors. In this paper, we use different methods that allow for both linear and non-linear associations to select prognostic markers for depression, the response.

Genomic biomarkers for a binary clinical outcome in early drug development microarray experiments.

In this article, we discuss methods to select three different types of genes (treatment related, response related, or both) and investigate whether they can serve as biomarkers for a binary outcome variable. We consider an extension of the joint model introduced by Lin et al. (2010) and Tilahun et al. (2010) for a continuous response. As the model has certain drawbacks in a binary setting, we also present a way to use classical selection methods to identify subgroups of genes, which are treatment and/or response related. We evaluate their potential to serve as biomarkers by applying DLDA to predict the response level.

Prediction of human oral plasma concentration-time profiles using preclinical data: comparative evaluation of prediction approaches in early pharmaceutical discovery.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Empirically based methods remain one of our tools in human pharmacokinetic predictions. The Dedrick approach and the steady-state plasma drug concentration (C(ss))-mean residence time (MRT) approach are based on the assumption that concentration-time profiles are similar among species, including man, and that curves derived from a variety of animal species can be superimposed after mathematical transformation. In the Dedrick approach the transformation is based on the slope and intercept of the allometric relationship. The C(ss)-MRT approach is based on the implementation of measured animal and predicted human MRT and dose/volume of distribution at steady state (V(ss)). The aims of the present study were to compare the predictive performance of concentration-time profiles obtained by these approaches, to evaluate the prediction of individual pharmacokinetic parameters by these approaches and to further refine these approaches incorporating the experience from our previous work. METHODS: A retrospective analysis using 35 proprietary compounds developed at Johnson & Johnson Pharmaceutical Research and Development was conducted to compare the accuracies of the Dedrick and C(ss)-MRT approaches for predicting oral concentration-time profiles and pharmacokinetic parameters in man. In the first step, input for the transformation was based on simple allometry. Then we assessed whether both methods could be fine-tuned by systematically incorporating correction factors (maximum life span potential, brain weight and plasma protein binding), depending on the interspecies relationship. In addition, for the C(ss)-MRT approach, we used formulas based on multivariate regression analysis as input for the transformation. RESULTS: Inclusion of correction factors significantly improved the profile predictability for the Dedrick and C(ss)-MRT approaches. This was mainly linked to an improved prediction of terminal elimination half-life (t(½)), MRT and the ratio between the maximum plasma concentration and the concentration at the last observed time point (C(max)/C(last)). No significant differences were observed between the Dedrick approach with correction factors, the C(ss)-MRT approach with correction factors and the C(ss)-MRT approach, based on the regression equations. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the dataset evaluated in this study, we demonstrated that human plasma concentration-time profiles and pharmacokinetic parameters could be predicted with the Dedrick and C(ss)-MRT approaches and that if correction factors were implemented, the predictions improved significantly. With the requirement of only a limited preclinical in vivo pharmacokinetic dataset, these empirical methods could offer potential in the early stages of drug discovery.