Real world effectiveness of tixagevimab/cilgavimab (Evusheld) in the Omicron era.

BACKGROUND: Pre-exposure prophylaxis for COVID-19 with tixagevimab/cilgavimab (T/C) received Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) based on results of a clinical trial conducted prior to the emergence of the Omicron variant. The clinical effectiveness of T/C has not been well described in the Omicron era. We examined the incidence of symptomatic illness and hospitalizations among T/C recipients when Omicron accounted for virtually all local cases. METHODS: Through retrospective electronic medical record chart review, we identified patients who received T/C between January 1 -July 31, 2022 within our quaternary referral health system. We determined the incidence of symptomatic COVID-19 infections and hospitalizations due to or presumed to be caused by early Omicron variants before and after receiving T/C (pre-T/C and post-T/C). Chi square and Mann-Whitney Wilcoxon two-sample tests were used to examine differences between the characteristics of those who got COVID-19 before or after T/C prophylaxis, and rate ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated to assess differences in hospitalization rates for the two groups. RESULTS: Of 1295 T/C recipients, 105 (8.1%) developed symptomatic COVID-19 infection before receiving T/C, and 102 (7.9%) developed symptomatic disease after receiving it. Of the 105 patients who developed symptomatic infection pre-T/C, 26 (24.8%) were hospitalized, compared with six of the 102 patients (5.9%) who were diagnosed with COVID-19 post-T/C (RR = 0.24; 95% CI = 0.10-0.55; p = 0.0002). Seven of the 105 (6.7%) patients infected pre-T/C, but none of the 102 infected post-T/C required ICU care. No COVID-related deaths occurred in either group. The majority of COVID-19 cases among those infected pre-T/C treatment occurred during the Omicron BA.1 surge, while the majority of post-T/C cases occurred when Omicron BA.5 was predominant. In both groups, having at least one dose of vaccine strongly protected against hospitalization (pre-T/C group RR = 0.31, 95% CI = 0.17-0.57, p = 0.02; post-T/C group RR = 0.15; 95% CI = 0.03-0.94; p = 0.04). CONCLUSION: We identified COVID-19 infections after T/C prophylaxis. Among patients who received T/C at our institution, COVID-19 Omicron cases occurring after T/C were one-fourth as likely to require hospitalization compared to those with Omicron prior to T/C. However, due to the presence of changing vaccine coverage, multiple therapies, and changing variants, the effectiveness of T/C in the Omicron era remains difficult to assess.

What Is the Willingness to Receive Vaccination Against COVID-19 Among the Elderly in Italy? Data From the PASSI d'Argento Surveillance System.

Introduction: Italy was one of the earliest countries to experience a severe COVID-19 epidemic and vaccinating the elderly, who constitute 23% of the population and have experienced the highest mortality rates, is a top priority. Estimating prevalences and understanding risk factors for COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy or refusal are important for development of targeted interventions. Methods: We used data from a specially developed COVID-19 module of PASSI D'Argento, an ongoing surveillance system of residents 65+ years of age to measure the prevalence and identify risk factors for hesitancy and refusal to receive the COVID-19 vaccine. We calculated multinomial regression relative risk ratios to examine the association between demographic characteristics, health status, COVID-19 attitudes and experiences and likely vaccine hesitancy and refusal. Results: Of the 1876 respondents, 55% reported they would accept vaccination and 16% would likely refuse; the remaining 29% were categorized as hesitant. Compared with the acceptance group, we identified several risk factors in common between the hesitancy group and the refusal group, including not having received vaccination against influenza during the previous flu season (hesitancy: RRR = 2.0; 95% CI 1.4-2.9; refusal: RRR = 12.1; 95%CI 7.6-19.4) and lower risk of having had a death from COVID-19 among family or friends (hesitancy: RRR = 4.8; 95%CI 2.0-11.4; refusal: RRR = 15.4; 95%CI 3.7-64.5). The hesitancy group was significantly more likely being worried and they did not know if consequences of the disease would be serious for them. Conclusion: Our findings show the importance of establishing and maintaining active contact between the preventive services, primary care providers and the population because trust is difficult to establish during an emergency like the COVID-19 pandemic. Italian public health is based on a capillary network of general practitioners and having them reach out to their patients who have not previously received influenza vaccine may be a useful strategy for targeting efforts to further encourage uptake of COVID-19 vaccination.

Epidemiology Workforce Capacity in 27 Large Urban Health Departments in the United States, 2017.

OBJECTIVES: The Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists (CSTE) has periodically assessed the epidemiological capacity of states since 2001, but the data do not reflect the total US epidemiology capacity. CSTE partnered with the Big Cities Health Coalition (BCHC) in 2017 to assess epidemiology capacity in large urban health departments. We described the epidemiology workforce capacity of large urban health departments in the United States and determined gaps in capacity among BCHC health departments. METHODS: BCHC, in partnership with CSTE, modified the 2017 State Epidemiology Capacity Assessment for its 30 member departments. Topics in the assessment included epidemiology leadership, staffing, funding, capacity to perform 4 epidemiology-related Essential Public Health Services, salary ranges, hiring requirements, use of competencies, training needs, and job vacancies. RESULTS: The 27 (90%) BCHC-member health departments that completed the assessment employed 1091 full-time equivalent epidemiologists. All or nearly all health departments provided epidemiology services for programs in infectious disease (n = 27), maternal and child health (n = 27), preparedness (n = 27), chronic diseases (n = 25), vital statistics (n = 25), and environmental health (n = 23). On average, funding for epidemiology activities came from local (47%), state (24%), and federal (27%) sources. Health departments reported needing a 40% increase from the current number of epidemiologists to achieve ideal epidemiology capacity. Twenty-five health departments reported substantial-to-full capacity to monitor health problems, 21 to diagnose health problems, 11 to conduct evaluations, and 9 to perform applied research. CONCLUSIONS: Strategies to meet 21st century challenges and increase substantial-to-full epidemiological capacity include seeking funds from nongovernmental sources, partnering with schools and programs of public health, and identifying creative solutions to hiring and retaining epidemiologists.

Applied Epidemiology Workforce Growth and Capacity Challenges: The Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists 2017 Epidemiology Capacity Assessment.

OBJECTIVES: To better understand the current status and challenges of the state public health department workforce, the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists (CSTE) assessed the number and functions of applied public health epidemiologists at state health departments in the United States. METHODS: In 2017, CSTE emailed unique online assessment links to state epidemiologists in the 50 states and the District of Columbia (N = 51). The response rate was 100%. CSTE analyzed quantitative data (27 questions) on funding, the number of current and needed epidemiologists, recruitment, retention, perceived capacity, and training. CSTE coded qualitative data in response to an open-ended question that asked about the most important problems state epidemiologists face. RESULTS: Most funding for epidemiologic activities came from the federal government (mean, 77%). State epidemiologists reported needing 1199 additional epidemiologists to achieve ideal capacity but noted challenges in recruiting qualified staff members. Respondents cited opportunities for promotion (n = 45, 88%), salary (n = 41, 80%), restrictions on merit raises (n = 36, 70%), and losses to the private or government sector (n = 33, 65%) as problems for retention. Of 4 Essential Public Health Services measured, most state epidemiologists reported substantial-to-full capacity to monitor health status (n = 43, 84%) and diagnose and investigate community health problems (n = 47, 92%); fewer respondents reported substantial-to-full capacity to conduct evaluations (n = 20, 39%) and research (n = 11, 22%). CONCLUSIONS: Reliance on federal funding negatively affects employee retention, core capacity, and readiness at state health departments. Creative solutions for providing stable funding, developing greater flexibility to respond to emerging threats, and enhancing capacity in evaluation and applied research are needed.

Energy drinks consumption in Italian adolescents: preliminary data of social, psychological and behavioral features.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to investigate the prevalence of energy drink (ED) consumption and the associations with social, psychological and behavioral features among an Italian adolescent sample. METHODS: A cross-sectional prevalence study of 450 Italian adolescents attending middle school was conducted. The Italian versions of the European Food Safety Authority's adolescent Energy Drinks Questionnaire and of the Depression and Anxiety in Youth Scale (DAYS) were administered to evaluate ED use and its psychological correlates. Odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated using a logistic model to estimate the associations between ED consumption and socio-demographic characteristics, psychological factors and risky behaviors. RESULTS: The prevalence of ED consumers was 57%, of whom 49% used alcohol mixed with ED. A total of 9% exhibited high chronic consumption, 31% average chronic consumption and 8% high acute consumption. Males were significantly more likely to use ED (OR=2.7, 95% CI: 1.8-4.0, P=0.00) and to engage in high acute consumption (OR=4.0, 95% CI: 1.1-13.8, P=0.03). Regular smoking was associated with ED use (OR=3.4, 95% CI: 1.2-9.1, P=0.02). No relationship was observed between ED use and depression (OR=1.6, 95% CI: 0.9-3.0, P=0.10) and anxiety (OR=0.8, 95% CI: 0.5-1.4, P=0.44), although those who were depressed with a suggestive but not statistically significant increased risk of acute ED use (OR=2.7, 95% CI: 1.0-7.4, P=0.06). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of ED consumption among middle school Italian students was high and it was associated with another risky behavior, smoking, but not with anxiety or depression. About half of ED consumers used alcohol mixed with ED.

Assessment of Epidemiology Capacity in State Health Departments - United States, 2017.

In 2017, the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists performed its sixth periodic Epidemiology Capacity Assessment, a national assessment that evaluates trends in workforce size, funding, and epidemiology capacity among state health departments. A standardized web-based questionnaire was sent to the state epidemiologist in the 50 states, the District of Columbia (DC), and the U.S. territories and the Federated States of Micronesia inquiring about the number of current and optimal epidemiologist positions; sources of epidemiology activity and personnel funding; and each department's self-perceived capacity to lead activities, provide subject matter expertise, and obtain and manage resources for the four Essential Public Health Services (EPHS)* most closely linked to epidemiology. From 2013 to 2017, the number of state health department epidemiologists† increased 22%, from 2,752 to 3,369, the greatest number of workers since the first full Epidemiology Capacity Assessment enumeration in 2004. The federal government provided most (77%) of the funding for epidemiologic activities and personnel. Substantial to full capacity (50%-100%) was highest for investigating health problems (92% of health departments) and monitoring health status (84%), whereas capacity for evaluating effectiveness (39%) and applied research (29%) was considerably lower. An estimated additional 1,200 epidemiologists are needed to reach full capacity to conduct the four EPHS. Additional resources might be needed to ensure that state health department epidemiologists possess the specialized skills to deliver EPHS, particularly in evaluation and applied epidemiologic research.

Factors influencing deliveries at health facilities in a rural Maasai Community in Magadi sub-County, Kenya.

BACKGROUND: In response to poor maternal, newborn, and child health indicators in Magadi sub-county, the "Boma" model was launched to promote health facility delivery by establishing community health units and training community health volunteers (CHVs) and traditional birth attendants (TBAs) as safe motherhood promoters. As a result, health facility delivery increased from 14% to 24%, still considerably below the national average (61%). We therefore conducted this study to determine factors influencing health facility delivery and describe barriers and motivators to the same. METHODS: A mixed methods cross-sectional study involving a survey with 200 women who had delivered in the last 24 months, 3 focus group discussions with health providers, chiefs and CHVs and 26 in-depth interviews with mothers, key decision influencers and TBAs. Adjusted odds ratios (aOR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) using logistic regression were calculated to identify predictive factors for health facility delivery. Thematic analysis was done to describe barriers and motivators to the same. RESULTS: Of the women interviewed, 39% delivered at the health facility. Factors positively associated with health facility deliveries included belonging to the highest wealth quintiles [aOR 4.9 (95%CI 1.5-16.5)], currently not married [aOR 2.4 (95%CI 1.1-5.4)] and living near the health facility [aOR 2.2 (95%CI 1.1 = 4.4)]. High parity [aOR 0.7 (95%CI 0.5-0.9)] was negatively associated with health facility delivery. Barriers to health facility delivery included women not being final decision makers on place of birth, lack of a birth plan, gender of health provider, unfamiliar birthing position, disrespect and/or abuse, distance, attitude of health providers and lack of essential drugs and supplies. Motivators included proximity to health facility, mother's health condition, integration of TBAs into the health system, and health education/advice received. CONCLUSION: Belonging to the highest wealth quintile, currently not married and living near a health facility were positively associated with health facility delivery. Gender inequity and cultural practices such as lack of birth preparedness should be addressed. Transport mechanisms need to be established to avoid delay in reaching a health facility. The health systems also need to be functional with adequate supplies and motivated staff.

The effectiveness of non-pyrethroid insecticide-treated durable wall lining to control malaria in rural Tanzania: study protocol for a two-armed cluster randomized trial.

BACKGROUND: Despite considerable reductions in malaria achieved by scaling-up long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS), maintaining sustained community protection remains operationally challenging. Increasing insecticide resistance also threatens to jeopardize the future of both strategies. Non-pyrethroid insecticide-treated wall lining (ITWL) may represent an alternate or complementary control method and a potential tool to manage insecticide resistance. To date no study has demonstrated whether ITWL can reduce malaria transmission nor provide additional protection beyond the current best practice of universal coverage (UC) of LLINs and prompt case management. METHODS/DESIGN: A two-arm cluster randomized controlled trial will be conducted in rural Tanzania to assess whether non-pyrethroid ITWL and UC of LLINs provide added protection against malaria infection in children, compared to UC of LLINs alone. Stratified randomization based on malaria prevalence will be used to select 22 village clusters per arm. All 44 clusters will receive LLINs and half will also have ITWL installed on interior house walls. Study children, aged 6 months to 11 years old, will be enrolled from each cluster and followed monthly to estimate cumulative incidence of malaria parasitaemia (primary endpoint), time to first malaria episode and prevalence of anaemia before and after intervention. Entomological inoculation rate will be estimated using indoor CDC light traps and outdoor tent traps followed by detection of Anopheles gambiae species, sporozoite infection, insecticide resistance and blood meal source. ITWL bioefficacy and durability will be monitored using WHO cone bioassays and household surveys, respectively. Social and cultural factors influencing community and household ITWL acceptability will be explored through focus-group discussions and in-depth interviews. Cost-effectiveness, compared between study arms, will be estimated per malaria case averted. DISCUSSION: This protocol describes the large-scale evaluation of a novel vector control product, designed to overcome some of the known limitations of existing methods. If ITWL is proven to be effective and durable under field conditions, it may warrant consideration for programmatic implementation, particularly in areas with long transmission seasons and where pyrethroid-resistant vectors predominate. Trial findings will provide crucial information for policy makers in Tanzania and other malaria-endemic countries to guide resource allocations for future control efforts. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT02533336 registered on 13 July 2014.

Measurement of Health Program Equity Made Easier: Validation of a Simplified Asset Index Using Program Data From Honduras and Senegal.

Equitable access to programs and health services is essential to achieving national and international health goals, but it is rarely assessed because of perceived measurement challenges. One of these challenges concerns the complexities of collecting the data needed to construct asset or wealth indices, which can involve asking as many as 40 survey questions, many with multiple responses. To determine whether the number of variables and questions could be reduced to a level low enough for more routine inclusion in evaluations and research without compromising programmatic conclusions, we used data from a program evaluation in Honduras that compared a pro-poor intervention with government clinic performance as well as data from a results-based financing project in Senegal. In both, the full Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) asset questionnaires had been used as part of the evaluations. Using the full DHS results as the "gold standard," we examined the effect of retaining successively smaller numbers of variables on the classification of the program clients in wealth quintiles. Principal components analysis was used to identify those variables in each country that demonstrated minimal absolute factor loading values for 8 different thresholds, ranging from 0.05 to 0.70. Cohen's kappa statistic was used to assess correlation. We found that the 111 asset variables and 41 questions in the Honduras DHS could be reduced to 9 variables, captured by only 8 survey questions (kappa statistic, 0.634), without substantially altering the wealth quintile distributions for either the pro-poor program or the government clinics or changing the resulting policy conclusions. In Senegal, the 103 asset variables and 36 questions could be reduced to 32 variables and 20 questions (kappa statistic, 0.882) while maintaining a consistent mix of users in each of the 2 lowest quintiles. Less than 60% of the asset variables in the 2 countries' full DHS asset indices overlapped, and in none of the 8 simplified asset index iterations did this proportion exceed 50%. We conclude that substantially reducing the number of variables and questions used to assess equity is feasible, producing valid results and providing a less burdensome way for program implementers or researchers to evaluate whether their interventions are pro-poor. Developing a standardized, simplified asset questionnaire that could be used across countries may prove difficult, however, given that the variables that contribute the most to the asset index are largely country-specific.

The effect of a multi-component intervention on disrespect and abuse during childbirth in Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Disrespect and abuse (D & A) during labor and delivery are important issues correlated with human rights, equity, and public health that also affect women's decisions to deliver in facilities, which provide appropriate management of maternal and neonatal complications. Little is known about interventions aimed at lowering the frequency of disrespectful and abusive behaviors. METHODS: Between 2011 and 2014, a pre-and-post study measured D & A levels in a three-tiered intervention at 13 facilities in Kenya under the Heshima project. The intervention involved working with policymakers to encourage greater focus on D & A, training providers on respectful maternity care, and strengthening linkages between the facility and community for accountability and governance. At participating facilities, postpartum women were approached at discharge and asked to participate in the study; those who consented were administered a questionnaire on D & A in general as well as six typologies, including physical and verbal abuse, violations of confidentiality and privacy, detainment for non-payment, and abandonment. Observation of provider-patient interaction during labor was also conducted in the same facilities. In both exit interview and observational studies, multivariate analyses of risk factors for D & A controlled for differences in socio-demographic and facility characteristics between baseline and endline surveys. RESULTS: Overall D & A decreased from 20-13% (p < 0.004) and among four of the six typologies D & A decreased from 40-50%. Night shift deliveries were associated with greater verbal and physical abuse. Patient and infant detainment declined dramatically from 8.0-0.8%, though this was partially attributable to the 2013 national free delivery care policy. CONCLUSION: Although a number of contextual factors may have influenced these findings, the magnitude and consistency of the observed decreases suggest that the multi-component intervention may have the potential to reduce the frequency of D & A. Greater efforts are needed to develop stronger evaluation methods for assessing D & A in other settings.

Childhood vaccination coverage rates among military dependents in the United States.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The Military Health System provides universal coverage of all recommended childhood vaccinations. Few studies have examined the effect that being insured by the Military Health System has on childhood vaccination coverage. The purpose of this study was to compare the coverage of the universally recommended vaccines among military dependents versus other insured and uninsured children using a nationwide sample of children. METHODS: The National Immunization Survey is a multistage, random-digit dialing survey designed to measure vaccination coverage estimates of US children aged 19 to 35 months old. Data from 2007 through 2012 were combined to permit comparison of vaccination coverage among military dependent and all other children. RESULTS: Among military dependents, 28.0% of children aged 19 to 35 months were not up to date on the 4:3:1:3:3:1 vaccination series excluding Haemophilus influenzae type b vaccine compared with 21.1% of all other children (odds ratio: 1.4; 95% confidence interval: 1.2-1.6). After controlling for sociodemographic characteristics, compared with all other US children, military dependent children were more likely to be incompletely vaccinated (odds ratio: 1.3; 95% confidence interval: 1.1-1.5). CONCLUSIONS: Lower vaccination coverage rates among US military dependent children might be due to this population being highly mobile. However, the lack of a military-wide childhood immunization registry and incomplete documentation of vaccinations could contribute to the lower vaccination coverage rates seen in this study. These results suggest the need for further investigation to evaluate vaccination coverage of children with complete ascertainment of vaccination history, and if lower immunization rates are verified, assessment of reasons for lower vaccination coverage rates among military dependent children.

Community health workers providing government community case management for child survival in sub-Saharan Africa: who are they and what are they expected to do?

We describe community health workers (CHWs) in government community case management (CCM) programs for child survival across sub-Saharan Africa. In sub-Saharan Africa, 91% of 44 United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) offices responded to a cross-sectional survey in 2010. Frequencies describe CHW profiles and activities in government CCM programs (N = 29). Although a few programs paid CHWs a salary or conversely, rewarded CHWs purely on a non-financial basis, most programs combined financial and non-financial incentives and had training for 1 week. Not all programs allowed CHWs to provide zinc, use timers, dispense antibiotics, or use rapid diagnostic tests. Many CHWs undertake health promotion, but fewer CHWs provide soap, water treatment products, indoor residual spraying, or ready-to-use therapeutic foods. For newborn care, very few promote kangaroo care, and they do not provide antibiotics or resuscitation. Even if CHWs are as varied as the health systems in which they work, more work must be done in terms of the design and implementation of the CHW programs for them to realize their potential.

Strategies to improve health coverage and narrow the equity gap in child survival, health, and nutrition.

Implementation of innovative strategies to improve coverage of evidence-based interventions, especially in the most marginalised populations, is a key focus of policy makers and planners aiming to improve child survival, health, and nutrition. We present a three-step approach to improvement of the effective coverage of essential interventions. First, we identify four different intervention delivery channels--ie, clinical or curative, outreach, community-based preventive or promotional, and legislative or mass media. Second, we classify which interventions' deliveries can be improved or changed within their channel or by switching to another channel. Finally, we do a meta-review of both published and unpublished reviews to examine the evidence for a range of strategies designed to overcome supply and demand bottlenecks to effective coverage of interventions that improve child survival, health, and nutrition. Although knowledge gaps exist, several strategies show promise for improving coverage of effective interventions-and, in some cases, health outcomes in children-including expanded roles for lay health workers, task shifting, reduction of financial barriers, increases in human-resource availability and geographical access, and use of the private sector. Policy makers and planners should be informed of this evidence as they choose strategies in which to invest their scarce resources.

Integrated management of childhood illness: what have we learned and how can it be improved?

Integrated management of childhood illness (IMCI) was developed by the WHO and UNICEF in the mid-1990s as a strategy to reduce under-five mortality. Aimed at countries with mortalities >40/1000 live births, it has been adopted by more than 100 countries. Repeated evaluations have demonstrated that IMCI can improve the quality of clinical care for sick children, but coverage has rarely reached high enough levels to achieve the expected reductions in mortality. In this paper, we discuss the reasons why IMCI has fallen short of its full potential, what has already been done to address some of these issues, and how it could be repositioned to achieve its original goals.

Lesotho's minimum PMTCT package: lessons learned for combating vertical HIV transmission using co-packaged medicines.

INTRODUCTION: Mother-to-child transmission of HIV can be reduced to<5% with appropriate antiretroviral medications. Such reductions depend on multiple health system encounters during antenatal care (ANC), delivery and breastfeeding; in countries with limited access to care, transmission remains high. In Lesotho, where 28% of women attending ANC are HIV positive but where geographic and other factors limit access to ANC and facility deliveries, a Minimum PMTCT Package was launched in 2007 as an alternative to the existing facility-based approach. Distributed at the first ANC visit, it packaged together all necessary pregnancy, delivery and early postnatal antiretroviral medications for mother and infant. METHODS: To examine the availability, feasibility, acceptability and possible negative consequences of the Minimum PMTCT Package, data from a 2009 qualitative and quantitative study and a 2010 facility assessment were used. To examine the effects on ANC and facility-based delivery rates, a difference-in-differences analytic approach was applied to 2009 Demographic and Health Survey data for HIV-tested women who gave birth before and after Minimum PMTCT Package implementation. RESULTS: The Minimum PMTCT Package was feasible and acceptable to providers and clients. Problems with test kit and medicine stock-outs occurred, and 46% of women did not receive the Minimum PMTCT Package until at least their second ANC visit. Providing adequate instruction on the use of multiple medications represented a challenge. The proportion of HIV-positive women delivering in facilities declined after Minimum PMTCT Package implementation, although it increased among HIV-negative women (difference-in-differences=14.5%, p=0.05). The mean number of ANC visits declined more among HIV-positive women than among HIV-negative women after implementation, though the difference was not statistically significant (p=0.09). Changes in the percentage of women receiving≥4 ANC visits did not differ between the two groups. CONCLUSIONS: If supply issues can be resolved and adequate client educational materials provided, take-away co-packages have the potential to increase access to PMTCT commodities in countries where women have limited access to health services. However, efforts must be made to carefully monitor potential changes in ANC visits and facility deliveries, and further evaluation of adherence, safety and effectiveness are needed.

Do improvements in outreach, clinical, and family and community-based services predict improvements in child survival? An analysis of serial cross-sectional national surveys.

BACKGROUND: There are three main service delivery channels: clinical services, outreach, and family and community. To determine which delivery channels are associated with the greatest reductions in under-5 mortality rates (U5MR), we used data from sequential population-based surveys to examine the correlation between changes in coverage of clinical, outreach, and family and community services and in U5MR for 27 high-burden countries. METHODS: Household survey data were abstracted from serial surveys in 27 countries. Average annual changes (AAC) between the most recent and penultimate survey were calculated for under-five mortality rates and for 22 variables in the domains of clinical, outreach, and family- and community-based services. For all 27 countries and a subset of 19 African countries, we conducted principal component analysis to reduce the variables into a few components in each domain and applied linear regression to assess the correlation between changes in the principal components and changes in under-five mortality rates after controlling for multiple potential confounding factors. RESULTS: AAC in under 5-mortality varied from 6.6% in Nepal to -0.9% in Kenya, with six of the 19 African countries all experiencing less than a 1% decline in mortality. The strongest correlation with reductions in U5MR was observed for access to clinical services (all countries: p = 0.02, r² = 0.58; 19 African countries p < 0.001, r² = 0.67). For outreach activities, AAC U5MR was significantly correlated with antenatal care and family planning services, while AAC in immunization services showed no association. In the family- and community services domain, improvements in breastfeeding were associated with significant changes in mortality in the 30 countries but not in the African subset; while in the African countries, nutritional status improvements were associated with a significant decline in mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings support the importance of increasing access to clinical services, certain outreach services and breastfeeding and, in Africa, of improving nutritional status. Integrated programs that emphasize these services may lead to substantial mortality declines.