Forecasting individual progression trajectories in Alzheimer's disease.

The anticipation of progression of Alzheimer's disease (AD) is crucial for evaluations of secondary prevention measures thought to modify the disease trajectory. However, it is difficult to forecast the natural progression of AD, notably because several functions decline at different ages and different rates in different patients. We evaluate here AD Course Map, a statistical model predicting the progression of neuropsychological assessments and imaging biomarkers for a patient from current medical and radiological data at early disease stages. We tested the method on more than 96,000 cases, with a pool of more than 4,600 patients from four continents. We measured the accuracy of the method for selecting participants displaying a progression of clinical endpoints during a hypothetical trial. We show that enriching the population with the predicted progressors decreases the required sample size by 38% to 50%, depending on trial duration, outcome, and targeted disease stage, from asymptomatic individuals at risk of AD to subjects with early and mild AD. We show that the method introduces no biases regarding sex or geographic locations and is robust to missing data. It performs best at the earliest stages of disease and is therefore highly suitable for use in prevention trials.

Artificial intelligence-based clustering and characterization of Parkinson's disease trajectories.

Parkinson's disease (PD) is a highly heterogeneous disease both with respect to arising symptoms and its progression over time. This hampers the design of disease modifying trials for PD as treatments which would potentially show efficacy in specific patient subgroups could be considered ineffective in a heterogeneous trial cohort. Establishing clusters of PD patients based on their progression patterns could help to disentangle the exhibited heterogeneity, highlight clinical differences among patient subgroups, and identify the biological pathways and molecular players which underlie the evident differences. Further, stratification of patients into clusters with distinct progression patterns could help to recruit more homogeneous trial cohorts. In the present work, we applied an artificial intelligence-based algorithm to model and cluster longitudinal PD progression trajectories from the Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative. Using a combination of six clinical outcome scores covering both motor and non-motor symptoms, we were able to identify specific clusters of PD that showed significantly different patterns of PD progression. The inclusion of genetic variants and biomarker data allowed us to associate the established progression clusters with distinct biological mechanisms, such as perturbations in vesicle transport or neuroprotection. Furthermore, we found that patients of identified progression clusters showed significant differences in their responsiveness to symptomatic treatment. Taken together, our work contributes to a better understanding of the heterogeneity encountered when examining and treating patients with PD, and points towards potential biological pathways and genes that could underlie those differences.

Pre-pregnancy check-up of maternal vascular status and associated phenotype is crucial for the health of mother and offspring.

Abstract: Cardiovascular disease remains the leading cause of disease burden globally with far-reaching consequences including enormous socio-economic burden to healthcare and society at large. Cardiovascular health is decisive for reproductive function, healthy pregnancy and postpartum. During pregnancy, maternal cardiovascular system is exposed to highly increased haemodynamic stress that significantly impacts health status of the mother and offspring. Resulting from sub-optimal maternal health conditions overlooked in pre-pregnancy time, progressive abnormalities can be expected during pregnancy and postpartum. Contextually, there are two main concepts to follow in the framework of predictive, preventive and personalised medicine, namely to develop:1. advanced screening of sub-optimal health conditions in young populations to predict and prevent individual health risks prior to planned pregnancies2. in-depth companion diagnostics during pregnancy to predict and prevent long-lasting postpartum health risks of the mother and offspring.Data collected in the current study demonstrate group-specific complications to health of the mother and offspring and clinical relevance of the related phenotyping in pre-pregnant mothers. Diagnostic approach proposed in this study revealed its great clinical utility demonstrating important synergies between cardiovascular maladaptation and connective tissue dysfunction. Co-diagnosed pre-pregnancy low BMI of the mother, connective tissue dysfunction, increased stiffness of peripheral vessels and decreased blood pressure are considered a highly specific maternal phenotype useful for innovative screening programmes in young populations to predict and prevent severe risks to health of the mother and offspring. This crucial discovery brings together systemic effects characteristic, for example, for individuals with Flammer syndrome predisposed to the phenotype-specific primary vascular dysregulation, pregnancy-associated risks, normal tension glaucoma, ischemic stroke at young age, impaired wound healing and associated disorders. Proposed maternal phenotyping is crucial to predict and effectively protect both the mother and offspring against health-to-disease transition. Pre-pregnancy check-up focused on sub-optimal health and utilising here described phenotypes is pivotal for advanced health policy. Plain English abstract: Cardiovascular health is decisive for reproductive function and healthy pregnancy. During pregnancy, maternal cardiovascular system may demonstrate health-to-disease transition relevant for the affected mother and offspring. Overlooked in pre-pregnancy time, progressive abnormalities can be expected during pregnancy and lifelong. Here we co-diagnosed maternal pre-pregnancy low bodyweight with systemic effects which may increase risks of pregnancy, eye and heart disorders and ischemic stroke at young age, amongst others. Innovative screening  programmes focused on sub-optimal health in young populations to predict and to mitigate individual health risks prior to pregnancy is an essential innovation for health policy proposed.

Generation of realistic synthetic data using Multimodal Neural Ordinary Differential Equations.

Individual organizations, such as hospitals, pharmaceutical companies, and health insurance providers, are currently limited in their ability to collect data that are fully representative of a disease population. This can, in turn, negatively impact the generalization ability of statistical models and scientific insights. However, sharing data across different organizations is highly restricted by legal regulations. While federated data access concepts exist, they are technically and organizationally difficult to realize. An alternative approach would be to exchange synthetic patient data instead. In this work, we introduce the Multimodal Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (MultiNODEs), a hybrid, multimodal AI approach, which allows for generating highly realistic synthetic patient trajectories on a continuous time scale, hence enabling smooth interpolation and extrapolation of clinical studies. Our proposed method can integrate both static and longitudinal data, and implicitly handles missing values. We demonstrate the capabilities of MultiNODEs by applying them to real patient-level data from two independent clinical studies and simulated epidemiological data of an infectious disease.

Integrative data semantics through a model-enabled data stewardship.

MOTIVATION: The importance of clinical data in understanding the pathophysiology of complex disorders has prompted the launch of multiple initiatives designed to generate patient-level data from various modalities. While these studies can reveal important findings relevant to the disease, each study captures different yet complementary aspects and modalities which, when combined, generate a more comprehensive picture of disease etiology. However, achieving this requires a global integration of data across studies, which proves to be challenging given the lack of interoperability of cohort datasets. RESULTS: Here, we present the Data Steward Tool (DST), an application that allows for semi-automatic semantic integration of clinical data into ontologies and global data models and data standards. We demonstrate the applicability of the tool in the field of dementia research by establishing a Clinical Data Model (CDM) in this domain. The CDM currently consists of 277 common variables covering demographics (e.g. age and gender), diagnostics, neuropsychological tests and biomarker measurements. The DST combined with this disease-specific data model shows how interoperability between multiple, heterogeneous dementia datasets can be achieved. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: The DST source code and Docker images are respectively available at https://github.com/SCAI-BIO/data-steward and https://hub.docker.com/r/phwegner/data-steward. Furthermore, the DST is hosted at https://data-steward.bio.scai.fraunhofer.de/data-steward. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

ADataViewer: exploring semantically harmonized Alzheimer's disease cohort datasets.

BACKGROUND: Currently, Alzheimer's disease (AD) cohort datasets are difficult to find and lack across-cohort interoperability, and the actual content of publicly available datasets often only becomes clear to third-party researchers once data access has been granted. These aspects severely hinder the advancement of AD research through emerging data-driven approaches such as machine learning and artificial intelligence and bias current data-driven findings towards the few commonly used, well-explored AD cohorts. To achieve robust and generalizable results, validation across multiple datasets is crucial. METHODS: We accessed and systematically investigated the content of 20 major AD cohort datasets at the data level. Both, a medical professional and a data specialist, manually curated and semantically harmonized the acquired datasets. Finally, we developed a platform that displays vital information about the available datasets. RESULTS: Here, we present ADataViewer, an interactive platform that facilitates the exploration of 20 cohort datasets with respect to longitudinal follow-up, demographics, ethnoracial diversity, measured modalities, and statistical properties of individual variables. It allows researchers to quickly identify AD cohorts that meet user-specified requirements for discovery and validation studies regarding available variables, sample sizes, and longitudinal follow-up. Additionally, we publish the underlying variable mapping catalog that harmonizes 1196 unique variables across the 20 cohorts and paves the way for interoperable AD datasets. CONCLUSIONS: In conclusion, ADataViewer facilitates fast, robust data-driven research by transparently displaying cohort dataset content and supporting researchers in selecting datasets that are suited for their envisioned study. The platform is available at https://adata.scai.fraunhofer.de/ .

Comparison and aggregation of event sequences across ten cohorts to describe the consensus biomarker evolution in Alzheimer's disease.

BACKGROUND: Previous models of Alzheimer's disease (AD) progression were primarily hypothetical or based on data originating from single cohort studies. However, cohort datasets are subject to specific inclusion and exclusion criteria that influence the signals observed in their collected data. Furthermore, each study measures only a subset of AD-relevant variables. To gain a comprehensive understanding of AD progression, the heterogeneity and robustness of estimated progression patterns must be understood, and complementary information contained in cohort datasets be leveraged. METHODS: We compared ten event-based models that we fit to ten independent AD cohort datasets. Additionally, we designed and applied a novel rank aggregation algorithm that combines partially overlapping, individual event sequences into a meta-sequence containing the complementary information from each cohort. RESULTS: We observed overall consistency across the ten event-based model sequences (average pairwise Kendall's tau correlation coefficient of 0.69 ± 0.28), despite variance in the positioning of mainly imaging variables. The changes described in the aggregated meta-sequence are broadly consistent with the current understanding of AD progression, starting with cerebrospinal fluid amyloid beta, followed by tauopathy, memory impairment, FDG-PET, and ultimately brain deterioration and impairment of visual memory. CONCLUSION: Overall, the event-based models demonstrated similar and robust disease cascades across independent AD cohorts. Aggregation of data-driven results can combine complementary strengths and information of patient-level datasets. Accordingly, the derived meta-sequence draws a more complete picture of AD pathology compared to models relying on single cohorts.

STonKGs: a sophisticated transformer trained on biomedical text and knowledge graphs.

MOTIVATION: The majority of biomedical knowledge is stored in structured databases or as unstructured text in scientific publications. This vast amount of information has led to numerous machine learning-based biological applications using either text through natural language processing (NLP) or structured data through knowledge graph embedding models. However, representations based on a single modality are inherently limited. RESULTS: To generate better representations of biological knowledge, we propose STonKGs, a Sophisticated Transformer trained on biomedical text and Knowledge Graphs (KGs). This multimodal Transformer uses combined input sequences of structured information from KGs and unstructured text data from biomedical literature to learn joint representations in a shared embedding space. First, we pre-trained STonKGs on a knowledge base assembled by the Integrated Network and Dynamical Reasoning Assembler consisting of millions of text-triple pairs extracted from biomedical literature by multiple NLP systems. Then, we benchmarked STonKGs against three baseline models trained on either one of the modalities (i.e. text or KG) across eight different classification tasks, each corresponding to a different biological application. Our results demonstrate that STonKGs outperforms both baselines, especially on the more challenging tasks with respect to the number of classes, improving upon the F1-score of the best baseline by up to 0.084 (i.e. from 0.881 to 0.965). Finally, our pre-trained model as well as the model architecture can be adapted to various other transfer learning applications. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: We make the source code and the Python package of STonKGs available at GitHub (https://github.com/stonkgs/stonkgs) and PyPI (https://pypi.org/project/stonkgs/). The pre-trained STonKGs models and the task-specific classification models are respectively available at https://huggingface.co/stonkgs/stonkgs-150k and https://zenodo.org/communities/stonkgs. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Unraveling the heterogeneity in Alzheimer's disease progression across multiple cohorts and the implications for data-driven disease modeling.

INTRODUCTION: Given study-specific inclusion and exclusion criteria, Alzheimer's disease (AD) cohort studies effectively sample from different statistical distributions. This heterogeneity can propagate into cohort-specific signals and subsequently bias data-driven investigations of disease progression patterns. METHODS: We built multi-state models for six independent AD cohort datasets to statistically compare disease progression patterns across them. Additionally, we propose a novel method for clustering cohorts with regard to their progression signals. RESULTS: We identified significant differences in progression patterns across cohorts. Models trained on cohort data learned cohort-specific effects that bias their estimations. We demonstrated how six cohorts relate to each other regarding their disease progression. DISCUSSION: Heterogeneity in cohort datasets impedes the reproducibility of data-driven results and validation of progression models generated on single cohorts. To ensure robust scientific insights, it is advisable to externally validate results in independent cohort datasets. The proposed clustering assesses the comparability of cohorts in an unbiased, data-driven manner.

Caution, "normal" BMI: health risks associated with potentially masked individual underweight-EPMA Position Paper 2021.

An increasing interest in a healthy lifestyle raises questions about optimal body weight. Evidently, it should be clearly discriminated between the standardised "normal" body weight and individually optimal weight. To this end, the basic principle of personalised medicine "one size does not fit all" has to be applied. Contextually, "normal" but e.g. borderline body mass index might be optimal for one person but apparently suboptimal for another one strongly depending on the individual genetic predisposition, geographic origin, cultural and nutritional habits and relevant lifestyle parameters-all included into comprehensive individual patient profile. Even if only slightly deviant, both overweight and underweight are acknowledged risk factors for a shifted metabolism which, if being not optimised, may strongly contribute to the development and progression of severe pathologies. Development of innovative screening programmes is essential to promote population health by application of health risks assessment, individualised patient profiling and multi-parametric analysis, further used for cost-effective targeted prevention and treatments tailored to the person. The following healthcare areas are considered to be potentially strongly benefiting from the above proposed measures: suboptimal health conditions, sports medicine, stress overload and associated complications, planned pregnancies, periodontal health and dentistry, sleep medicine, eye health and disorders, inflammatory disorders, healing and pain management, metabolic disorders, cardiovascular disease, cancers, psychiatric and neurologic disorders, stroke of known and unknown aetiology, improved individual and population outcomes under pandemic conditions such as COVID-19. In a long-term way, a significantly improved healthcare economy is one of benefits of the proposed paradigm shift from reactive to Predictive, Preventive and Personalised Medicine (PPPM/3PM). A tight collaboration between all stakeholders including scientific community, healthcare givers, patient organisations, policy-makers and educators is essential for the smooth implementation of 3PM concepts in daily practice.

CLEP: a hybrid data- and knowledge-driven framework for generating patient representations.

SUMMARY: As machine learning and artificial intelligence increasingly attain a larger number of applications in the biomedical domain, at their core, their utility depends on the data used to train them. Due to the complexity and high dimensionality of biomedical data, there is a need for approaches that combine prior knowledge around known biological interactions with patient data. Here, we present CLinical Embedding of Patients (CLEP), a novel approach that generates new patient representations by leveraging both prior knowledge and patient-level data. First, given a patient-level dataset and a knowledge graph containing relations across features that can be mapped to the dataset, CLEP incorporates patients into the knowledge graph as new nodes connected to their most characteristic features. Next, CLEP employs knowledge graph embedding models to generate new patient representations that can ultimately be used for a variety of downstream tasks, ranging from clustering to classification. We demonstrate how using new patient representations generated by CLEP significantly improves performance in classifying between patients and healthy controls for a variety of machine learning models, as compared to the use of the original transcriptomics data. Furthermore, we also show how incorporating patients into a knowledge graph can foster the interpretation and identification of biological features characteristic of a specific disease or patient subgroup. Finally, we released CLEP as an open source Python package together with examples and documentation. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: CLEP is available to the bioinformatics community as an open source Python package at https://github.com/hybrid-kg/clep under the Apache 2.0 License. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

ANMerge: A Comprehensive and Accessible Alzheimer's Disease Patient-Level Dataset.

BACKGROUND: Accessible datasets are of fundamental importance to the advancement of Alzheimer's disease (AD) research. The AddNeuroMed consortium conducted a longitudinal observational cohort study with the aim to discover AD biomarkers. During this study, a broad selection of data modalities was measured including clinical assessments, magnetic resonance imaging, genotyping, transcriptomic profiling, and blood plasma proteomics. Some of the collected data were shared with third-party researchers. However, this data was incomplete, erroneous, and lacking in interoperability. OBJECTIVE: To provide the research community with an accessible, multimodal, patient-level AD cohort dataset. METHODS: We systematically addressed several limitations of the originally shared resources and provided additional unreleased data to enhance the dataset. RESULTS: In this work, we publish and describe ANMerge, a new version of the AddNeuroMed dataset. ANMerge includes multimodal data from 1,702 study participants and is accessible to the research community via a centralized portal. CONCLUSION: ANMerge is an information rich patient-level data resource that can serve as a discovery and validation cohort for data-driven AD research, such as, for example, machine learning and artificial intelligence approaches.

Evaluating the Alzheimer's disease data landscape.

INTRODUCTION: Numerous studies have collected Alzheimer's disease (AD) cohort data sets. To achieve reproducible, robust results in data-driven approaches, an evaluation of the present data landscape is vital. METHODS: Previous efforts relied exclusively on metadata and literature. Here, we evaluate the data landscape by directly investigating nine patient-level data sets generated in major clinical cohort studies. RESULTS: The investigated cohorts differ in key characteristics, such as demographics and distributions of AD biomarkers. Analyzing the ethnoracial diversity revealed a strong bias toward White/Caucasian individuals. We described and compared the measured data modalities. Finally, the available longitudinal data for important AD biomarkers was evaluated. All results are explorable through our web application ADataViewer (https://adata.scai.fraunhofer.de). DISCUSSION: Our evaluation exposed critical limitations in the AD data landscape that impede comparative approaches across multiple data sets. Comparison of our results to those gained by metadata-based approaches highlights that thorough investigation of real patient-level data is imperative to assess a data landscape.

Differences in cohort study data affect external validation of artificial intelligence models for predictive diagnostics of dementia - lessons for translation into clinical practice.

Artificial intelligence (AI) approaches pose a great opportunity for individualized, pre-symptomatic disease diagnosis which plays a key role in the context of personalized, predictive, and finally preventive medicine (PPPM). However, to translate PPPM into clinical practice, it is of utmost importance that AI-based models are carefully validated. The validation process comprises several steps, one of which is testing the model on patient-level data from an independent clinical cohort study. However, recruitment criteria can bias statistical analysis of cohort study data and impede model application beyond the training data. To evaluate whether and how data from independent clinical cohort studies differ from each other, this study systematically compares the datasets collected from two major dementia cohorts, namely, the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) and AddNeuroMed. The presented comparison was conducted on individual feature level and revealed significant differences among both cohorts. Such systematic deviations can potentially hamper the generalizability of results which were based on a single cohort dataset. Despite identified differences, validation of a previously published, ADNI trained model for prediction of personalized dementia risk scores on 244 AddNeuroMed subjects was successful: External validation resulted in a high prediction performance of above 80% area under receiver operator characteristic curve up to 6 years before dementia diagnosis. Propensity score matching identified a subset of patients from AddNeuroMed, which showed significantly smaller demographic differences to ADNI. For these patients, an even higher prediction performance was achieved, which demonstrates the influence systematic differences between cohorts can have on validation results. In conclusion, this study exposes challenges in external validation of AI models on cohort study data and is one of the rare cases in the neurology field in which such external validation was performed. The presented model represents a proof of concept that reliable models for personalized predictive diagnostics are feasible, which, in turn, could lead to adequate disease prevention and hereby enable the PPPM paradigm in the dementia field.

Challenges of Integrative Disease Modeling in Alzheimer's Disease.

Dementia-related diseases like Alzheimer's Disease (AD) have a tremendous social and economic cost. A deeper understanding of its underlying pathophysiologies may provide an opportunity for earlier detection and therapeutic intervention. Previous approaches for characterizing AD were targeted at single aspects of the disease. Yet, due to the complex nature of AD, the success of these approaches was limited. However, in recent years, advancements in integrative disease modeling, built on a wide range of AD biomarkers, have taken a global view on the disease, facilitating more comprehensive analysis and interpretation. Integrative AD models can be sorted in two primary types, namely hypothetical models and data-driven models. The latter group split into two subgroups: (i) Models that use traditional statistical methods such as linear models, (ii) Models that take advantage of more advanced artificial intelligence approaches such as machine learning. While many integrative AD models have been published over the last decade, their impact on clinical practice is limited. There exist major challenges in the course of integrative AD modeling, namely data missingness and censoring, imprecise human-involved priori knowledge, model reproducibility, dataset interoperability, dataset integration, and model interpretability. In this review, we highlight recent advancements and future possibilities of integrative modeling in the field of AD research, showcase and discuss the limitations and challenges involved, and finally, propose avenues to address several of these challenges.