Understanding paediatric COVID-19 vaccination during the pandemic: a prospective cohort and a population-based registry study.

Background: Despite the early demonstrated safety and effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines in children, uptake was slow throughout the pandemic and remains low globally. Understanding vaccine refusal could provide insights to improving vaccine uptake in future pandemics. Methods: In a population-wide registry of all COVID-19 paediatric vaccination appointments, we used interrupted time series analysis to evaluate the impact of public policies. In a population-based cohort of adults, we used population attributable fractions to assess the individual and joint contributions of potential determinants to paediatric COVID-19 vaccination, and used mediation analysis to identify modifiable mediators between political views and paediatric vaccination. Findings: School vaccination requirements were associated with an increase in vaccination appointments by 278.7% (95% CI 85.3-673.9) in adolescents aged 12-17 and 112.8% (27.6-255.0) in children aged 5-11. Government-mandated vaccine pass, required for entry into restaurants, shopping malls and supermarkets, was associated with increased vaccination appointments by 108.7% (26.6-244.0) in adolescents. The following four determinants may explain 82.5% (63.5-100.0) of the reasons why children were unvaccinated: familial political views, vaccine hesitancy for children, mistrust in doctors and academics, and vaccine misconceptions. The influence of political views may be mitigated since 95.9% (76.4-100.0) of its association with vaccine reluctance for adolescents was mediated by modifiable factors such as mistrust in health authorities and low vaccine confidence. Interpretation: School vaccination requirements and vaccine passes were associated with increased vaccine uptake. Clinicians should recognise that factors beyond health, such as political views, can influence paediatric vaccine uptake to a significant extent. Nonetheless, such influences could be mitigated by targeted interventions and public policies. Funding: Hong Kong Jockey Club Charities Trust, Research Grants Council, University Grants Committee, and Health Bureau.

Estimated impact of the 2020 economic downturn on under-5 mortality for 129 countries.

In low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), economic downturns can lead to increased child mortality by affecting dietary, environmental, and care-seeking factors. This study estimates the potential loss of life in children under five years old attributable to economic downturns in 2020. We used a multi-level, mixed effects model to estimate the relationship between gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and under-5 mortality rates (U5MRs) specific to each of 129 LMICs. Public data were retrieved from the World Bank World Development Indicators database and the United Nations World Populations Prospects estimates for the years 1990-2020. Country-specific regression coefficients on the relationship between child mortality and GDP were used to estimate the impact on U5MR of reductions in GDP per capita of 5%, 10%, and 15%. A 5% reduction in GDP per capita in 2020 was estimated to cause an additional 282,996 deaths in children under 5 in 2020. At 10% and 15%, recessions led to higher losses of under-5 lives, increasing to 585,802 and 911,026 additional deaths, respectively. Nearly half of all the potential under-5 lives lost in LMICs were estimated to occur in Sub-Saharan Africa. Because most of these deaths will likely be due to nutrition and environmental factors amenable to intervention, countries should ensure continued investments in food supplementation, growth monitoring, and comprehensive primary health care to mitigate potential burdens.

Public health spending, primary care, and perceived risk promoted vaccination against H1N1.

The purpose of this study is to examine factors affecting the intent to vaccinate during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic and to leverage the results to inform public health policy decisions aimed at increasing vaccine uptake during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using the National 2009 H1N1 Flu Survey data and state-level administrative data, we employ logistic regression and mediation models to estimate the association between vaccine uptake and state level public health spending, political ideology, and H1N1 case and death rates as well as a set of individual and household characteristics. We find that higher public health spending can significantly increase the intent to vaccinate, mainly through raising concerns about the pandemic and promoting vaccine relevant doctor patient interactions. We conclude that physicians, especially primary care physicians, should play more important roles in the ongoing vaccination efforts against the COVID-19 virus.

Does social capital increase healthcare financing's projection? Results from the rural household of Uttar Pradesh, India.

In the absence of adequate social security, out-of-pocket health expenditure compels households to adopt coping strategies, such as utilizing savings, selling assets, or acquiring external financial support (EFS) by borrowing with interest. Households' probability of acquiring EFS and its amount (intensity) depends on its social capital - the nature of social relationships and resources embedded within social networks. This study examines the effect of social capital on the probability and intensity of EFS during health events in Uttar Pradesh (UP), India. The analysis used data from a cross-sectional survey of 6218 households, reporting 3066 healthcare events, from two districts of UP. Household heads (HH) reported demographic, socioeconomic, and health-related information, including EFS, for each household member. Self-reported data from Shortened and Adapted Social Capital Assessment Tool in India (SASCAT-I) was used to generate four unique social capital measures (organizational participation, social support, trust, and social cohesion) at HH and community-level, using multilevel confirmatory factor analysis. After descriptive analysis, two-part mixed-effect models were implemented to estimate the probability and intensity of EFS as a function of social capital measures, where multilevel mixed-effects probit regression was used as the first-part and multilevel mixed-effects linear model with log link and gamma distribution as the second-part. Controlling for all covariates, the probability of acquiring EFS significantly increased (p = 0.04) with higher social support of the HH and significantly decreased (p = 0.02) with higher community social cohesion. Conditional to receiving any EFS, higher social trust of the HH resulted in higher intensity of EFS (p = 0.09). Social support and trust may enable households to cope up with financial stress. However, controlling for the other dimensions of social capital, high cohesiveness with the community might restrict a household's access to external resources demonstrating the unintended effect of social capital exerted by formal or informal social control.

Impact of Neighborhood Social and Environmental Resources on Medicaid Spending.

INTRODUCTION: In an era of COVID-19, Black Lives Matter, and unsustainable healthcare spending, efforts to address the root causes of health are urgently needed. Research linking medical spending to variation in neighborhood resources is critical to building the case for increased funding for social conditions. However, few studies link neighborhood factors to medical spending. This study assesses the relationship between neighborhood social and environmental resources and medical spending across the spending distribution. METHODS: Individual-level health outcomes were drawn from a sample of Medicaid enrollees living in Baltimore, Maryland during 2016. A multidimensional index of neighborhood social and environmental resources was created and stratified by tertile (high, medium, and low). Differences were examined in individual-level medical spending associated with living in high-, medium-, or low-resource neighborhoods in unadjusted and adjusted 2-part models and quantile regression models. Analyses were conducted in 2019. RESULTS: Enrollees who live in neighborhoods with low social and environmental resources incur significantly higher spending at the mean and across the distribution of medical spending even after controlling for age, race, sex, and morbidity than those who live in neighborhoods with high social and environmental resources. On average, this spending difference between individuals in low- and those in high-resource neighborhoods is estimated to be $523.60 per person per year. CONCLUSIONS: Living in neighborhoods with low (versus those with high) resources is associated with higher individual-level medical spending across the distribution of medical spending. Findings suggest potential benefits from efforts to address the social and environmental context of neighborhoods in addition to the traditional orientation to addressing individual behavior and risk.

Systematic assessment of South Korea's capabilities to control COVID-19.

South Korea's COVID-19 control strategy has been widely emulated. Korea's ability to rapidly achieve disease control in early 2020 without a "Great Lockdown" despite its proximity to China and high population density make its achievement particularly intriguing. This paper helps explain Korea's pre-existing capabilities which enabled the rapid and effective implementation of its COVID-19 control strategies. A systematic assessment across multiple domains demonstrates that South Korea's advantages in controlling its epidemic are owed tremendously to legal and organizational reforms enacted after the MERS outbreak in 2015. Successful implementation of the Korean strategy required more than just a set of actions, measures and policies. It relied on a pre-existing legal framework, financing arrangements, governance and a workforce experienced in outbreak management.

Road safety risk factors for non-motorised vehicle users in a Chinese city: an observational study.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to describe and analyse the prevalence of speeding, helmet use and red-light running among riders of non-motorised vehicles (NMVs) in Shanghai, China, with a focus on electric bikes (ebikes). METHODS: Observational studies were conducted in eight randomly selected locations in Shanghai. Descriptive statistics and a Cox proportional hazard (PH) model were used in the analyses. FINDINGS: A total of 14 828 NMVs were observed in November 2017. At the free flow sites, the average speed was 22.5 km/hour for ebikes and 13.4 km/hour for bicycles. 95.5% of ebikes run above 15 km/hour, the legal speed limit for NMVs in China and 83.8% above 20 km/hour, the maximum design speed for ebikes. Helmet wearing rate was 13.5% for ebike drivers and 9.4% for passengers. Riders of commercial ebikes were nearly three times more likely to wear a helmet than personal ebikes. 22.4% of ebikes were observed to run a red light. The Cox PH model showed that ebikes (vs bicycles), males (vs females), clear weather (vs cloudy, rainy and snowy), helmet users (vs nonusers) are associated with a higher hazard for running a red light. CONCLUSION: To our knowledge, this study is among the first comprehensive evaluation of road user behaviours for NMVs in China. An effective intervention package including regulating ebike production to national standards, strengthening speed enforcement and passing legislation on mandatory helmet use for ebike users may be able to help.

Child Housing Assessment for a Safe Environment (CHASE): a new tool for injury prevention inside the home.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a tool to assess the safety of the home environment that could produce valid measures of a child's risk of suffering an injury. METHODS: Tool development: A four-step process was used to develop the CHASE (Child Housing Assessment for a Safe Environment) tool, including (1) a literature scan, (2) reviewing of existing housing inspection tools, (3) key informants interviews, and (4) reviewing the National Electronic Injury Surveillance System to determine the leading housing elements associated with paediatric injury. Retrospective case-control study to validate the CHASE tool: Recruitment included case (injured) and control (sick but not injured) children and their families from a large, urban paediatric emergency department in Baltimore, Maryland in 2012. Trained inspectors applied both the well-known Home Quality Standard (HQS) and the CHASE tool to each enrollee's home, and we compared scores on individual and summary items between cases and controls. RESULTS: Twenty-five items organised around 12 subdomains were included on the CHASE tool. 71 matched pairs were enrolled and included in the analytic sample. Comparisons between cases and controls revealed statistically significant differences in scores on individual items of the CHASE tool as well as on the overall score, with the cases systematically having worse scores. No differences were found between groups on the HQS measures. CONCLUSION: Programmes conducting housing inspections in the homes of children should consider including the CHASE tool as part of their inspection measures. Future study of the CHASE inspection tool in a prospective trial would help assess its efficacy in preventing injuries and reducing medical costs.

Punching above their weight: a network to understand broader determinants of increasing life expectancy.

BACKGROUND: Life expectancy initially improves rapidly with economic development but then tails off. Yet, at any level of economic development, some countries do better, and some worse, than expected - they either punch above or below their weight. Why this is the case has been previously researched but no full explanation of the complexity of this phenomenon is available. NEW RESEARCH NETWORK: In order to advance understanding, the newly formed Punching Above Their Weight Research Network has developed a model to frame future research. It provides for consideration of the following influences within a country: political and institutional context and history; economic and social policies; scope for democratic participation; extent of health promoting policies affecting socio-economic inequities; gender roles and power dynamics; the extent of civil society activity and disease burdens. CONCLUSION: Further research using this framework has considerable potential to advance effective policies to advance health and equity.

Can task-shifting work at scale?: Comparing clinical knowledge of non-physician clinicians to physicians in Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: In contexts with severe physician shortages, the World Health Organization advocates task shifting to cadres with shorter training. To investigate the effects of task shifting at scale in primary health care, we assessed the clinical knowledge of non-physician clinicians versus physicians working in public primary care facilities in Nigeria. METHODS: We assessed 4138 health workers using clinical vignettes of hypothetical patients suffering from illnesses commonly seen in primary care. Facility-level fixed effects models were used to compare health worker knowledge of (i) consultation guidelines, (ii) diagnostic accuracy and (iii) treatment guidelines. RESULTS: Unadjusted averages of overall health worker knowledge were low across all types of worker except medical officers. After adjustment for potential confounding, the differences across all three measures between cadres became small or statistically insignificant. CONCLUSION: Non-physician clinicians can provide the same quality of primary care, for a set of common illnesses, as Medical Officers with similar personal characteristics, but clinical skills across cadres need strengthening.

Results of an RCT in Two Pediatric Emergency Departments to Evaluate the Efficacy of an m-Health Educational App on Car Seat Use.

INTRODUCTION: The growing interest in incorporating prevention into emergency health care make it timely to examine the use of computer technology to efficiently deliver effective education in this setting. STUDY DESIGN: This RCT compared results from an intervention group (n=367) that received child passenger safety information, to an attention-matched control (n=375). A baseline survey and two follow-up surveys at 3 and 6 months were conducted. SETTING/PARTICIPANTS: Data were collected from June 2014 to September 2016 from a sample of parents with children aged 4-7 years recruited from a pediatric emergency department in an East Coast urban area and one in a Midwest semi-rural area. INTERVENTION: A theory-based, stage-tailored educational program, Safety in Seconds v2.0TM, delivered on a mobile app. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Four car seat behaviors: (1) having the correct restraint for the child's age and weight; (2) having the child ride in the backseat all the time; (3) buckling up the child all the time; and (4) having the child's restraint inspected by a child passenger safety technician. RESULTS: At 3 months, adjusting for baseline behaviors and attrition, the odds of reporting the correct behavior by the intervention group relative to the control group was 2.07 (p<0.01) for using the correct car seat; 2.37 (p<0.05) times for having the child ride in the back seat; 1.04 (nonsignificant) for riding buckled up all the time; and 1.99 (p<0.01) times for having the car seat inspected. At 6 months, there were statistically significant effects for reporting use of the correct car seat (OR=1.84, p<0.01) and having the car seat inspected (OR=1.73, p<0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Mobile apps hold promise for reaching large populations with individually tailored child passenger safety education. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinical Trial Registration # NCT02345941.

One Outcome, Many Trends: Understanding National Data Sources for Road Traffic Fatalities in China.

OBJECTIVES: To better understand national data sources and evaluate time trends in road traffic fatalities (RTF) in China. METHODS: We reviewed national sources on RTF data. These included population-based report from the Ministry of Public Security (MPS), sample-based estimates from the Ministry of Health (MOH) and the Disease Surveillance Points System (DSP), as well as model-based estimates from the World Health Organization (WHO), and the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD). RESULTS: All data sources have limitations in coverage, representativeness or overreliance on model specifications. Despite the discrepancies in methodologies and estimates, all sources indicated an increase in RTF before 2005. Since then, MPS and GBD indicated a decrease, DSP showed plateauing, and MOH and WHO suggested increasing fatalities. However, despite any recent decline, RTF remain high. CONCLUSIONS: The divergent trends in RTF across data sets in China implies a challenge to understanding China's experience with addressing RTF. China needs to reconcile data sources and further improve road safety.

Neurocognitive Correlates of Young Drivers' Performance in a Driving Simulator.

PURPOSE: Differences in neurocognitive functioning may contribute to driving performance among young drivers. However, few studies have examined this relation. This pilot study investigated whether common neurocognitive measures were associated with driving performance among young drivers in a driving simulator. METHODS: Young drivers (19.8 years (standard deviation [SD] = 1.9; N = 74)) participated in a battery of neurocognitive assessments measuring general intellectual capacity (Full-Scale Intelligence Quotient, FSIQ) and executive functioning, including the Stroop Color-Word Test (cognitive inhibition), Wisconsin Card Sort Test-64 (cognitive flexibility), and Attention Network Task (alerting, orienting, and executive attention). Participants then drove in a simulated vehicle under two conditions-a baseline and driving challenge. During the driving challenge, participants completed a verbal working memory task to increase demand on executive attention. Multiple regression models were used to evaluate the relations between the neurocognitive measures and driving performance under the two conditions. RESULTS: FSIQ, cognitive inhibition, and alerting were associated with better driving performance at baseline. FSIQ and cognitive inhibition were also associated with better driving performance during the verbal challenge. Measures of cognitive flexibility, orienting, and conflict executive control were not associated with driving performance under either condition. CONCLUSIONS: FSIQ and, to some extent, measures of executive function are associated with driving performance in a driving simulator. Further research is needed to determine if executive function is associated with more advanced driving performance under conditions that demand greater cognitive load.

Factors Contributing to Maternal and Child Mortality Reductions in 146 Low- and Middle-Income Countries between 1990 and 2010.

INTRODUCTION: From 1990-2010, worldwide child mortality declined by 43%, and maternal mortality declined by 40%. This paper compares two sources of progress: improvements in societal coverage of health determinants versus improvements in the impact of health determinants as a result of technical change. METHODS: This paper decomposes the progress made by 146 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) in lowering childhood and maternal mortality into one component due to better health determinants like literacy, income, and health coverage and a second component due to changes in the impact of these health determinants. Health determinants were selected from eight distinct health-impacting sectors. Health determinants were selected from eight distinct health-impacting sectors. Regression models are used to estimate impact size in 1990 and again in 2010. Changes in the levels of health determinants were measured using secondary data. FINDINGS: The model shows that respectively 100% and 89% of the reductions in maternal and child mortality since 1990 were due to improvements in nationwide coverage of health determinants. The relative share of overall improvement attributable to any single determinant varies by country and by model specification. However, in aggregate, approximately 50% of the mortality reductions were due to improvements in the health sector, and the other 50% of the mortality reductions were due to gains outside the health sector. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, countries improved maternal and child health (MCH) from 1990 to 2010 mainly through improvements in the societal coverage of a broad array of health system, social, economic and environmental determinants of child health. These findings vindicate efforts by the global community to obtain such improvements, and align with the post-2015 development agenda that builds on the lessons from the MDGs and highlights the importance of promoting health and sustainable development in a more integrated manner across sectors.

Medical expenditures associated with nonfatal occupational injuries among U.S. workers reporting persistent disabilities.

BACKGROUND: No prior study has investigated the medical expenditures associated with occupational injuries among U.S. workers with persistent disabilities, including those with physical disabilities or cognitive limitations. OBJECTIVE: Using the 2004-2011 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS) data (Panels 9-15), we estimated the 2-year incidence and the expenditures associated with occupational injuries in U.S. workers with and without persistent disabilities. METHODS: Expenditures were compared by type of service and sources of payment. We estimated the mean medical expenditures using linear regression analysis to adjust for sociodemographics. The statistical analysis accounted for the sample survey design of MEPS and the highly skewed expenditure data. RESULTS: The 2-year cumulative incidence of occupational injuries was 13.6% (95% CI: 11.6%-15.6%) in workers with persistent disabilities and 7.1% (95% CI: 6.8%-7.4%) in workers without persistent disabilities. The average medical expenditure associated with new occupational injuries in the 2-year follow-up period was $3778 in workers with disabilities, $2212 in workers without disabilities after adjusting for sociodemographics and medical insurance coverage status (in 2011 U.S. dollars, p-value = 0.0004). Of the total expenditures for occupational injuries, workers' compensation paid 54.6% in workers with disabilities and 58.9% in workers without disabilities. There was no significant difference in the proportion of injured workers with and without disabilities who reported receiving workers' compensation benefits (46.7% vs. 48.2%, p-value = 0.718). CONCLUSIONS: Workers with persistent disabilities had a significantly higher incidence of occupational injuries and higher medical costs compared with workers without persistent disabilities. Many questions with regard to occupational safety and worker's compensation benefits in workers with disabilities remain unexplored.

Reducing unintended pregnancies: a microsimulation of contraceptive switching, discontinuation, and failure patterns in france.

Although the rate of contraceptive use in France is high, more than one-third of pregnancies are unintended. We built a dynamic microsimulation model that applies data from the French COCON study on method switching, discontinuation, and failure rates to a hypothetical population of 20,000 women, followed for five years. We use the model to estimate the adjustment factor needed to make the survey data fit the demographic profile of France by adjusting for underreporting of contraceptive nonuse and abortion. We then test three behavior-change scenarios that could reduce unintended pregnancies: decreasing method failure, increasing time using effective methods, and increasing switching from less effective to more effective methods. Our model suggests that decreasing method failure is the most effective means of reducing unintended pregnancies, but we found that all of the scenarios reduced unintended pregnancies by at least 25 percent. Dynamic microsimulations may have great potential in reproductive health research and prove useful for policymakers.