Contrasting effects of summer and winter warming on body mass explain population dynamics in a food-limited Arctic herbivore.

The cumulative effects of climate warming on herbivore vital rates and population dynamics are hard to predict, given that the expected effects differ between seasons. In the Arctic, warmer summers enhance plant growth which should lead to heavier and more fertile individuals in the autumn. Conversely, warm spells in winter with rainfall (rain-on-snow) can cause 'icing', restricting access to forage, resulting in starvation, lower survival and fecundity. As body condition is a 'barometer' of energy demands relative to energy intake, we explored the causes and consequences of variation in body mass of wild female Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus) from 1994 to 2015, a period of marked climate warming. Late winter (April) body mass explained 88% of the between-year variation in population growth rate, because it strongly influenced reproductive loss, and hence subsequent fecundity (92%), as well as survival (94%) and recruitment (93%). Autumn (October) body mass affected ovulation rates but did not affect fecundity. April body mass showed no long-term trend (coefficient of variation, CV = 8.8%) and was higher following warm autumn (October) weather, reflecting delays in winter onset, but most strongly, and negatively, related to 'rain-on-snow' events. October body mass (CV = 2.5%) increased over the study due to higher plant productivity in the increasingly warm summers. Density-dependent mass change suggested competition for resources in both winter and summer but was less pronounced in recent years, despite an increasing population size. While continued climate warming is expected to increase the carrying capacity of the high Arctic tundra, it is also likely to cause more frequent icing events. Our analyses suggest that these contrasting effects may cause larger seasonal fluctuations in body mass and vital rates. Overall our findings provide an important 'missing' mechanistic link in the current understanding of the population biology of a keystone species in a rapidly warming Arctic.

Density dependence in an age-structured population of great tits: identifying the critical age classes.

Classical approaches for the analyses of density dependence assume that all the individuals in a population equally respond and equally contribute to density dependence. However, in age-structured populations, individuals of different ages may differ in their responses to changes in population size and how they contribute to density dependence affecting the growth rate of the whole population. Here we apply the concept of critical age classes, i.e., a specific scalar function that describes how one or a combination of several age classes affect the demographic rates negatively, in order to examine how total density dependence acting on the population growth rate depends on the age-specific population sizes. In a 38-yr dataset of an age-structured great tit (Parus major) population, we find that the age classes, including the youngest breeding females, were the critical age classes for density regulation. These age classes correspond to new breeders that attempt to take a territory and that have the strongest competitive effect on other breeding females. They strongly affected population growth rate and reduced recruitment and survival rates of all breeding females. We also show that depending on their age class, females may differently respond to varying density. In particular, the negative effect of the number of breeding females was stronger on recruitment rate of the youngest breeding females. These findings question the classical assumptions that all the individuals of a population can be treated as having an equal contribution to density regulation and that the effect of the number of individuals is age independent. Our results improve our understanding of density regulation in natural populations.

Demographic buffering of life histories? Implications of the choice of measurement scale.

Life-history theory predicts that the vital rates that influence population growth the most should be buffered against environmental fluctuations due to selection for reduced variation. However, it remains unclear whether populations actually are influenced by such "demographic buffering," because variation in vital rates can be compared on different measurement scales, and there has been little attempt to investigate whether the choice of scale influences the chance of detecting demographic buffering. We compared two statistical approaches to examine whether demographic buffering has influenced vital rates in wild Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus). To account for statistical variance constraints on vital rates limited between 0 and 1 in analyses of demographic buffering, one approach is to scale observed variation by the maximum possible variation on the arithmetic scale. When applying this approach, the results suggested that demographic buffering was occurring. However, when we applied an alternative approach that identified statistical variance constraints on the logit scale, there was no evidence for demographic buffering. Thus, the choice of measurement scale must be carefully considered before one can fully understand whether demographic buffering influences life histories. Defining the appropriate scale may require an understanding of the mechanisms through which demographic buffering may have evolved.

Genetic variability and structure of the water vole Arvicola amphibius across four metapopulations in northern Norway.

Water vole Arvicola amphibius populations have recently experienced severe decline in several European countries as a consequence of both reduction in suitable habitat and the establishment of the alien predator American mink Neovison vison. We used DNA microsatellite markers to describe the genetic structure of 14 island populations of water vole off the coast of northern Norway. We looked at intra- and inter-population levels of genetic variation and examined the effect of distance among pairs of populations on genetic differentiation (isolation by distance). We found a high level of genetic differentiation (measured by F ST) among populations overall as well as between all pairs of populations. The genetic differentiation between populations was positively correlated with geographic distance between them. A clustering analysis grouped individuals into 7 distinct clusters and showed the presence of 3 immigrants among them. Our results suggest a small geographic scale for evolutionary and population dynamic processes in our water vole populations.

Stochastic population dynamics and life-history variation in marine fish species.

We examined whether differences in life-history characteristics can explain interspecific variation in stochastic population dynamics in nine marine fish species living in the Barents Sea system. After observation errors in population estimates were accounted for, temporal variability in natural mortality rate, annual recruitment, and population growth rate was negatively related to generation time. Mean natural mortality rate, annual recruitment, and population growth rate were lower in long-lived species than in short-lived species. Thus, important species-specific characteristics of the population dynamics were related to the species position along the slow-fast continuum of life-history variation. These relationships were further associated with interspecific differences in ecology: species at the fast end were mainly pelagic, with short generation times and high natural mortality, annual recruitment, and population growth rates, and also showed high temporal variability in those demographic traits. In contrast, species at the slow end were long-lived, deepwater species with low rates and reduced temporal variability in the same demographic traits. These interspecific relationships show that the life-history characteristics of a species can predict basic features of interspecific variation in population dynamical characteristics of marine fish, which should have implications for the choice of harvest strategy to facilitate sustainable yields.

Evidence for a trade-off between early growth and tooth wear in Svalbard reindeer.

Ruminants depend on efficient physical degradation of forage through chewing to increase the surface area of the food particles presented to the microflora. Fossil evidence suggests that increased molar height is an adaptation for wear tolerance in dry ecosystems with sparse vegetation, but no study has shown selection pressure for hypsodonty in contemporary ruminants. We explored the relationships between particle size in rumen, tooth wear (scanned molar occlusal topography), age and body mass of female Svalbard reindeer living in an arctic desert at 78 degrees latitude on Svalbard. We predicted that (H1) if the rumen particle size is determined mainly by constraints due to tooth wear, and if tooth wear is mainly a function of age, average particle size in rumen should increase with age. From allometric relations it is known that larger individuals can survive on a lower-quality diet, we therefore predicted (H2) larger particle sizes with increases in (ln) body mass, irrespective of age and wear. Lastly, if there is a trade-off between growth and tooth wear in dry ecosystems (a selection pressure for hypsodonty), we predicted (H3) that teeth of heavier animals should be more worn than those of lighter animals of the same age. The proportion of small particles (<1.0 mm) decreased rapidly with increasing age (consistent with H1). Heavier females within an age class had more worn teeth (consistent with H3) than lighter ones. A close-to-isometric relationship between particle size and body mass suggested that heavier animals partly compensated for reduced tooth efficiency by chewing more. We provide the first evidence of a trade-off between fast early growth and wear (a somatic cost) of a senescence-related trait--the structure and height of the molar--in a wild ruminant inhabiting an arctic desert where selection pressure for increased tooth height is expected. This suggests that foraging conditions are more extreme than the environment in which the species originally evolved.