Development of a prognostic model of COVID-19 severity: a population-based cohort study in Iceland.

BACKGROUND: The severity of SARS-CoV-2 infection varies from asymptomatic state to severe respiratory failure and the clinical course is difficult to predict. The aim of the study was to develop a prognostic model to predict the severity of COVID-19 in unvaccinated adults at the time of diagnosis. METHODS: All SARS-CoV-2-positive adults in Iceland were prospectively enrolled into a telehealth service at diagnosis. A multivariable proportional-odds logistic regression model was derived from information obtained during the enrollment interview of those diagnosed between February 27 and December 31, 2020 who met the inclusion criteria. Outcomes were defined on an ordinal scale: (1) no need for escalation of care during follow-up; (2) need for urgent care visit; (3) hospitalization; and (4) admission to intensive care unit (ICU) or death. Missing data were multiply imputed using chained equations and the model was internally validated using bootstrapping techniques. Decision curve analysis was performed. RESULTS: The prognostic model was derived from 4756 SARS-CoV-2-positive persons. In total, 375 (7.9%) only required urgent care visits, 188 (4.0%) were hospitalized and 50 (1.1%) were either admitted to ICU or died due to complications of COVID-19. The model included age, sex, body mass index (BMI), current smoking, underlying conditions, and symptoms and clinical severity score at enrollment. On internal validation, the optimism-corrected Nagelkerke's R2 was 23.4% (95%CI, 22.7-24.2), the C-statistic was 0.793 (95%CI, 0.789-0.797) and the calibration slope was 0.97 (95%CI, 0.96-0.98). Outcome-specific indices were for urgent care visit or worse (calibration intercept -0.04 [95%CI, -0.06 to -0.02], Emax 0.014 [95%CI, 0.008-0.020]), hospitalization or worse (calibration intercept -0.06 [95%CI, -0.12 to -0.03], Emax 0.018 [95%CI, 0.010-0.027]), and ICU admission or death (calibration intercept -0.10 [95%CI, -0.15 to -0.04] and Emax 0.027 [95%CI, 0.013-0.041]). CONCLUSION: Our prognostic model can accurately predict the later need for urgent outpatient evaluation, hospitalization, and ICU admission and death among unvaccinated SARS-CoV-2-positive adults in the general population at the time of diagnosis, using information obtained by telephone interview.

Prevalence, clinical characteristics and outcomes of hypoxic hepatitis in critically ill patients.

BACKGROUND: Hypoxic hepatitis (HH) is an important clinical entity in patients in the intensive care unit (ICU). The aims of the study were to assess the etiology, clinical characteristics and outcomes of HH in the ICU of a tertiary hospital. Secondary aim was to analyze the effects of concomitant ischemia in other organs than the liver. METHODS: All patients with HH, 2011-2018, in a university hospital ICU were included. Data were collected on etiology, relevant clinical data and outcome. HH was defined by an increase in aminotransferases ≥10 times the upper limit of normal within 48 h from a clinical event of cardiac, circulatory or respiratory failure. Other causes of liver cell necrosis were excluded. RESULTS: Of 9,931 patients hospitalized in the ICU, 159 (1.6%) fulfilled criteria for HH. In-hospital mortality occurred in 85 (53%) and 60 (38%) survived one year. Median ICU stay was five days (interquartile range (IQR) 3-10) and median hospital stay 16 days (IQR 7-32). Shock (48%), cardiac arrest (25%) and hypoxia (13%) were the most common causes of HH. Acute kidney injury (81%), rhabdomyolysis (50%), intestinal ischemia (6%) and ischemic pancreatitis (3%) occurred concomitantly. Age (odds ratio (OR) 1.05 (95% CI 1.02-1.09)), serum lactate (OR 2.61 (95% CI 1.23-5.50)) and lactate dehydrogenase (OR 1.14 (95% CI 1.02-1.27)) were predictors of mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Hypoxic hepatitis was related to shock in approximately 50% of cases and associated with high in-hospital mortality. HH was commonly associated with ischemia in other organs. In-hospital mortality was associated with age, lactate and LD.

Clinical spectrum of coronavirus disease 2019 in Iceland: population based cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To characterise the symptoms of coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19). DESIGN: Population based cohort study. SETTING: Iceland. PARTICIPANTS: All individuals who tested positive for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) between 17 March and 30 April 2020. Cases were identified by three testing strategies: targeted testing guided by clinical suspicion, open invitation population screening based on self referral, and random population screening. All identified cases were enrolled in a telehealth monitoring service, and symptoms were systematically monitored from diagnosis to recovery. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Occurrence of one or more of 19 predefined symptoms during follow-up. RESULTS: Among 1564 people positive for SARS-CoV-2, the most common presenting symptoms were myalgia (55%), headache (51%), and non-productive cough (49%). At the time of diagnosis, 83 (5.3%) individuals reported no symptoms, of whom 49 (59%) remained asymptomatic during follow-up. At diagnosis, 216 (14%) and 349 (22%) people did not meet the case definition of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the World Health Organization, respectively. Most (67%) of the SARS-CoV-2-positive patients had mild symptoms throughout the course of their disease. CONCLUSION: In the setting of broad access to RT-PCR testing, most SARS-CoV-2-positive people were found to have mild symptoms. Fever and dyspnoea were less common than previously reported. A substantial proportion of SARS-CoV-2-positive people did not meet recommended case definitions at the time of diagnosis.

Liver injury caused by oral anticoagulants: A population-based retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Idiosyncratic drug-induced liver injury (DILI) is a rare adverse event. DILI caused by direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) has been reported, however, data on the risk of DILI are limited. The aim of the study was to evaluate the frequency of DILI caused by oral anticoagulants (OACs) in a population-based setting. METHODS: A computerized database search in The National Prescription Database was performed identifying all patients in Iceland who were prescribed OACs (rivaroxaban, apixaban, dabigatran, edoxaban or warfarin) in 2008-2017. Personal identification numbers of these patients were linked with a database containing laboratory results for all hospitals and most outpatient clinics in Iceland. A medical chart review was performed in all cases where onset of liver injury followed intake of OACs. Patients with other specific causes of liver injury were excluded. Causality assessment with the RUCAM method was undertaken in cases with suspected DILI. RESULTS: Three cases of suspected DILI were identified. In all cases, rivaroxaban was the implicated agent among patients prescribed this product (n = 3446). All were women with a hepatocellular type of liver injury. One patient developed a suspected drug-induced autoimmune hepatitis and was treated with corticosteroids. No cases of DILI in patients on warfarin (n = 9101), apixaban (n = 1903), dabigatran (n = 1335) and edoxaban (n = 34) were identified. CONCLUSIONS: Rivaroxaban was the only OAC associated with DILI during the 10-year study period. Approximately 1 in 1100 patients treated with rivaroxaban developed DILI. Other OACs were not associated with liver injury in this population-based study.

Ashwagandha-induced liver injury: A case series from Iceland and the US Drug-Induced Liver Injury Network.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Ashwagandha (Withania somnifera) is widely used in Indian Ayurvedic medicine. Several dietary supplements containing ashwagandha are marketed in the US and Europe, but only one case of drug-induced liver injury (DILI) due to ashwagandha has been published. The aim of this case series was to describe the clinical phenotype of suspected ashwagandha-induced liver injury. METHODS: Five cases of liver injury attributed to ashwagandha-containing supplements were identified; three were collected in Iceland during 2017-2018 and two from the Drug-Induced Liver Injury Network (DILIN) in 2016. Other causes for liver injury were excluded. Causality was assessed using the DILIN structured expert opinion causality approach. RESULTS: Among the five patients, three were males; mean age was 43 years (range 21-62). All patients developed jaundice and symptoms such as nausea, lethargy, pruritus and abdominal discomfort after a latency of 2-12 weeks. Liver injury was cholestatic or mixed (R ratios 1.4-3.3). Pruritus and hyperbilirubinaemia were prolonged (5-20 weeks). No patient developed hepatic failure. Liver tests normalized within 1-5 months in four patients. One patient was lost to follow-up. One biopsy was performed, showing acute cholestatic hepatitis. Chemical analysis confirmed ashwagandha in available supplements; no other toxic compounds were identified. No patient was taking potentially hepatotoxic prescription medications, although four were consuming additional supplements, and in one case, rhodiola was a possible causative agent along with ashwagandha. CONCLUSIONS: These cases illustrate the hepatotoxic potential of ashwagandha. Liver injury is typically cholestatic or mixed with severe jaundice and pruritus, but self-limited with liver tests normalizing in 1-5 months.

A significant proportion of patients with choledocholithiasis have markedly elevated alanine aminotransferase.

Objective: To determine the frequency and nature of liver enzyme elevations among patients presenting with choledocholithiasis (CDL). Methods: A prospective study identified all patients with serum level of alanine aminotransferase (ALT) ≥500 U/L (normal levels: <70 U/L in men, <45 U/L in women) over 1 year. Additionally, other patients with CDL were identified during the same period retrospectively by diagnostic codes and ERCP procedures, providing data on all CDL patients. Symptoms, liver tests, history of cholecystectomy, and radiological imaging were analyzed. Patients with radiologically confirmed CDL or a clinical diagnosis of CDL were included. Results: During the study period, 110 patients had CDL, 60% women, mean age 65 years. Overall 86/110 (78%) had confirmed CDL on imaging and 24/110 (22%) clinically diagnosed. Overall 26% had undergone cholecystectomy, median bile duct diameter 10.0 mm, median maximal liver tests: ALT 436, ALP 226, bilirubin 60 µmol/L (<25). Overall 9/110 (8%) had ALT ≥1000, 43/110 (39%) ALT levels between 500 and 1000 IU/L and 58/110 (53%) had ALT <500 IU/L. Patients with ALT ≥1000 had smaller bile duct diameter of 7 versus 10 mm (p < .001) but similar proportions of cholecystectomies. In the multivariate analysis age, maximal AST and maximal bilirubin were independent predictors of ALT >500. Maximal AST and bile duct diameter were independent predictors of ALT >1000. Conclusions: Approximately 8% of patients with CDL had markedly elevated ALT. These patients had smaller bile duct diameter. Pronounced ALT elevation is a part of the clinical spectrum of CDL.

Secondary sclerosing cholangitis in patients with drug-induced liver injury.

BACKGROUND: Secondary sclerosing cholangitis has clinical features similar to primary sclerosing cholangitis but originates from a known pathological entity. Secondary sclerosing cholangitis has not been investigated in patients with drug-induced liver injury. METHODS: Overall 102 patients diagnosed with drug-induced liver injury were identified and magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography images of 25 patients were reviewed. RESULTS: Ten patients (all females) out of 102 had confirmed features of secondary sclerosing cholangitis on biliary imaging. Overall 70% of patients with sclerosing cholangitis had jaundice vs. 25% without sclerosing cholangitis (p<0.01). All sclerosing cholangitis patients had cholestatic/mixed type of liver injury and compared with patients with cholestatic/mixed liver injury without confirmed abnormal MRCP (n=52), they also had more frequently jaundice, 70% vs. 23% (p=0.0065), higher peak alkaline phosphatase 551 (352-716) vs. 329 (202-543) (p=0.055) and longer time to resolution of liver injury 152 days (123-353) vs. 62 days (36-91) than patients without confirmed sclerosing cholangitis (p<0.0009). CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that drugs can lead to bile duct injury visualized on imaging. This should be a part of the differential diagnoses of secondary sclerosing cholangitis. These patients were more likely to present with jaundice and longer recovery of liver injury than other patients with cholestatic/mixed type of drug-induced liver injury.

Incidence, presentation, and outcomes in patients with drug-induced liver injury in the general population of Iceland.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Little is known about the incidence of drug-induced liver injury (DILI) in the general population. We investigated the incidence and the quantitative risk of DILI in a population-based cohort. METHODS: We performed a prospective study and collected data from 96 individuals diagnosed with DILI in Iceland from 2010 through 2011 (54 women; median age, 55 y). Liver injury was defined based on levels of alanine aminotransferase that were more than 3-fold the upper limit of normal and/or alkaline phosphatase levels more than 2-fold the upper limit of normal. Patients with acetaminophen toxicity were excluded. Drug history and clinical outcome were analyzed. Causality was assessed using the Roussel Uclaf Causality Assessment Method. The patients were registered in prescription databases for outpatients and inpatients. RESULTS: The crude annual incidence rate of DILI was 19.1 (95% confidence interval [CI], 15.4-23.3) cases per 100,000 inhabitants. DILI was caused by a single prescription medication in 75% of cases, by dietary supplements in 16% of cases, and by multiple agents in 9% of cases. The most commonly implicated drugs were amoxicillin-clavulanate (21 of 96; 22%), diclofenac (6%), azathioprine (4%), infliximab (4%), and nitrofurantoin (4%). The median duration of therapy was 20 days (range, 8-77 days); 26 patients had jaundice (27%) and 22 patients were hospitalized (23%) for a median of 5 days (range, 2-8 days). Overall 35,252 patients received amoxicillin-clavulanate as outpatients, and DILI occurred in 1 of 2350 (43 of 100,000; 95% CI, 24-70). DILI also occurred in 1 of 9480 patients taking diclofenac (11 of 100,000; 95% CI, 4-24), 1 of 133 patients taking azathioprine (752 of 100,000; 95% CI, 205-1914), 1 of 148 patients taking infliximab (675 of 100,000; 95% CI, 184-718), and 1 of 1369 patients taking nitrofurantoin (73 of 100,000; 95% CI, 20-187). CONCLUSIONS: In a population-based study in Iceland, the incidence of DILI was the highest reported to date. Amoxicillin-clavulanate was the most commonly implicated agent. The highest risk of hepatotoxicity was associated with azathioprine and infliximab, but the actual number of cases attributed to these agents was small.