Can altmetrics predict future citation counts in critical care medicine publications?

INTRODUCTION: Social media is increasingly used in the dissemination of medical research. Traditional measures of the impact of a paper do not account for this. Altmetrics are a measure of the dissemination of a publication via social media websites. The purpose of this study is to ascertain if the altmetric attention score of an article is a reliable measure of the impact it has in the field of critical care medicine. To this end, we investigated if a correlation exists between future citation count and altmetric attention score. METHODS: The top nine journals by impact factor in the field of critical care medicine were identified for 2014 and 2015. The 100 most cited articles from these journals were recorded to form the Scientific Impact Group, i.e. those with the greatest impact on the scientific community. The altmetric attention score was recorded for each article. The top 100 articles by altmetric attention score were also identified to form the Media Impact Group, i.e. those that generated the most online attention. Their citation counts' were recorded. Statistical analysis was performed on each group to identify a correlation between altmetric attention score and citation count. RESULTS: There was a moderately positive correlation in the Scientific Impact Group, with a Spearman r score of 0.4336 (P = 0.0001). A weakly positive correlation was found in the Media Impact Group, with a Spearman r score of 0.3033 (P = 0.002). CONCLUSIONS: There is a positive correlation between traditional bibliographic metrics and altmetrics in the field of critical care medicine. Highly cited papers are more likely to generate online attention. However, papers that generate a lot of online attention are less likely to have a high citation count. Therefore, altmetric attention score is not a reliable predictor of future citation count in critical care medicine.

An examination of the effect of open versus paywalled access publication on the disseminative impact and citation count of publications in intensive care medicine and anesthesia.

PURPOSE: We aimed to assess the impact of open access (OA) versus paywalled access (PA) publication on Altmetric Attention Scores (AAS) and whether AAS correlates with future citation count access in the context of intensive care medicine (ICM) and anesthesia. METHODS: 1854 and 2935 publications, in the year 2015, were identified in ICM and anesthesia respectively, using a Pubmed search. The mean AAS was measured for each article. RESULTS: More ICM articles were OA, compared to of anesthesia articles (38.9% v 35.0% p = 0.02). The mean AAS for OA ICM publications was significantly higher than that of PA ICM publications (17.34 vs 8.45, p < 0.01), however, this was not observed when examined in a fixed follow up time frame. AAS appear to correlate with future citation counts. CONCLUSIONS: ICM publications that are available as OA in the medium term result in higher AAS when compared to PA publications, this phenomenon was not observed in anesthesia. AAS correlate with future citation counts, however, a larger study is required to confirm this.