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1.
Health Econ ; 32(6): 1284-1304, 2023 06.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36880352

RESUMO

Labeled discrete choice experiments (DCEs) commonly present all alternatives using a full choice set design (FCSD), which could impose a high cognitive burden on respondents. In the setting of employment preferences, this study explored if a partial choice set design (PCSD) reduced cognitive burden whilst maintaining convergent validity compared with a FCSD. Respondents' preferences between the two designs were investigated. In the experimental design, labeled utility functions were rewritten into a single generic utility function using label dummy variables to generate an efficient PCSD with 3 alternatives shown in each choice task (out of 6). The DCE was embedded in a nationwide survey of 790 Australian pharmacy degree holders where respondents were presented with both a block of FCSD and PCSD tasks in random order. The PCSD's impact on error variances was investigated using a heteroscedastic conditional logit model. The convergent validity of PCSD was based on the equality of willingness-to-forgo-expected-salary estimates from Willingness-to-pay-space mixed logit models. A nested logit model was used combined with respondents' qualitative responses to understand respondents' design preferences. We show a promising future use of PCSD by providing evidence that PCSD can reduce cognitive burden while satisfying convergent validity compared to FCSD.


Assuntos
Comportamento de Escolha , Projetos de Pesquisa , Humanos , Austrália , Preferência do Paciente , Inquéritos e Questionários
2.
J Ment Health ; 32(2): 373-385, 2023 Apr.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34632936

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The decision to initiate medication is complex and is influenced by a variety of factors. There is limited information on the relative importance of factors that influence the initiation of ADHD medication. AIMS: To investigate the factors, and their relative importance, that influence the decision to initiate medication in adults, and parents of children, with ADHD. METHODS: A discrete choice experiment was conducted using eight choice tasks made up of five attributes that described the outcomes of initiating medication. A mixed multinomial logit model was used to estimate preferences for medication. RESULTS: Respondents' overall preferences for initiating medication were negative (Mean (ß)= -0.72705, p < 0.1), however, significant heterogeneity was noted in preferences (SD: 0.93604, p < 0.001). Side-effects were the most important factor for both adults (Relative importance (RI) = 40.39%) and parents (RI = 41.99%). Improvement in education had a greater weighting in adults' decision-making compared to parents (RI = 36.93% vs 30.47%) while improvement in aggressive (RI = 14.38% vs 11.84%) and social behaviour (RI = 12.59% vs 10.37%) was more important to parents. CONCLUSIONS: Important differences in preferences of patients and parents were identified, highlighting that the decision to initiate medication is influenced differently in different individuals and groups.


Assuntos
Transtorno do Deficit de Atenção com Hiperatividade , Comportamento de Escolha , Criança , Adulto , Humanos , Transtorno do Deficit de Atenção com Hiperatividade/tratamento farmacológico , Preferência do Paciente , Adesão à Medicação , Pais , Inquéritos e Questionários
3.
J Choice Model ; 44: 100371, 2022 Sep.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35880141

RESUMO

Published choice experiments linked to various aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic are analysed in a rapid review. The aim is to (i) document the diversity of topics as well as their temporal and geographical patterns of emergence, (ii) compare various elements of design quality across different sectors of applied economics, and (iii) identify potential signs of convergent validity across findings of comparable experiments. Of the N = 43 published choice experiments during the first two years of the pandemic, the majority identifies with health applications (n = 30), followed by transport-related applications (n = 10). Nearly 100,000 people across the world responded to pandemic-related discrete choice surveys. Within health applications, while the dominant theme, up until June 2020, was lockdown relaxation and tracing measures, the focus shifted abruptly to vaccine preference since then. Geographical origins of the health surveys were not diverse. Nearly 50% of all health surveys were conducted in only three countries, namely US, China and The Netherlands. Health applications exhibited stronger pre-testing and larger sample sizes compared to transport applications. Limited signs of convergent validity were identifiable. Within some applications, issues of temporal instability as well as hypothetical bias attributable to social desirability, protest response or policy consequentiality seemed likely to have affected the findings. Nevertheless, very few of the experiments implemented measures of hypothetical bias mitigation and those were limited to health studies. Our main conclusion is that swift administration of pandemic-related choice experiments has overall resulted in certain degrees of compromise in study quality, but this has been more so the case in relation to transport topics than health topics.

5.
Health Expect ; 25(3): 1094-1107, 2022 06.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35266628

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Adherence to medication for attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is less than optimal. Previous studies have primarily focused on qualitative assessment of factors that influence medication adherence. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to quantify the factors that influence patient and parent preferences for continuing ADHD medication. METHOD: A discrete-choice experiment was conducted to investigate preferences. Adults, and parents of children, with ADHD were presented with eight hypothetical choice tasks of three options (Medication A, Medication B, No Medication) described by six attributes related to medication outcomes. Preferences were estimated using a mixed multinomial logit model. RESULTS: Overall, respondents' preferences (n = 216) for continuing medication were negative (mean [ß] = -1.426, p < .001); however, a significant heterogeneity in preferences was observed amongst respondents (standard deviation = 0.805, p < .001). Improvements in education, aggressive behaviour, social behaviour and family functioning, and side effects and stigma, influenced respondents' decision to continue taking medication. The respondents were willing to continue medication if they experienced positive effects, but side effects (even moderate) were the strongest concern for not continuing medication. While side effects were the most important factor for both adult patients and parents of children with ADHD, improvement in education was relatively more important for adults and improvement in aggressive behaviour, social behaviour and family functioning was relatively more important for parents of children with ADHD. Parents were more likely to not continue a medication with severe side effects even at the highest level of improvement in education. CONCLUSIONS: Side effects are the most important factor that influenced preferences for continuing medication for both adults with ADHD, as well as parents of children with ADHD. While overall the respondents preferred not to take/give medication, discrete-choice experiment showed that the relative importance of factors that influenced continuation of medications was different for the two groups. PATIENT AND PUBLIC INVOLVEMENT: Adults, and parents of children, with ADHD participated in this study by completing the online questionnaire. The questionnaire was based on findings of research in the literature, as well as earlier focus groups conducted with adults, and parents of children, with ADHD. The face validity of the questionnaire was determined by asking parents of children, and adults, with ADHD (n = 3) to complete the survey and participate in a short discussion on their understanding of the questions and their recommendations on improving the clarity of the survey.


Assuntos
Transtorno do Deficit de Atenção com Hiperatividade , Adulto , Transtorno do Deficit de Atenção com Hiperatividade/tratamento farmacológico , Criança , Comportamento de Escolha , Grupos Focais , Humanos , Pais/educação , Inquéritos e Questionários
6.
J Safety Res ; 79: 173-198, 2021 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34848001

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION: Scholarly research on road accidents over the past 50 years has generated substantial literature. We propose a robust search strategy to retrieve and analyze this literature. METHOD: Analyses was focused on estimating the size of this literature and examining its intellectual anatomy and temporal trends using bibliometric indicators of its articles. RESULTS: The size of the literature is estimated to have exceeded N = 25,000 items as of 2020. At the highest level of aggregation, patterns of term co-occurrence in road accident articles point to the presence of six major divisions: (i) law, legislation & road trauma statistics; (ii) vehicular safety technology; (iii) statistical modelling; (iv) driving simulator experiments of driving behavior; (v) driver style and personality (social psychology); and (vi) vehicle crashworthiness and occupant protection division. Analyses identify the emergence of various research clusters and their progress over time along with their respective influential entities. For example, driver injury severity " and crash frequency show distinct characteristics of trending topics, with research activities in those areas notably intensified since 2015 Also, two developing clusters labelled autonomous vehicle and automated vehicle show distinct signs of becoming emerging streams of road accident literature. CONCLUSIONS: By objectively documenting temporal patterns in the development of the field, these analyses could offer new levels of insight into the intellectual composition of this field, its future directions, and knowledge gaps. Practical Applications: The proposed search strategy can be modified to generate specific subsets of this literature and assist future conventional reviews. The findings of temporal analyses could also be instrumental in informing and enriching literature review sections of original research articles. Analyses of authorships can facilitate collaborations, particularly across various divisions of accident research field.


Assuntos
Acidentes de Trânsito , Condução de Veículo , Humanos , Conhecimento , Modelos Estatísticos , Segurança
7.
Accid Anal Prev ; 154: 106093, 2021 May.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33770719

RESUMO

Applications of neuroimaging methods have substantially contributed to the scientific understanding of human factors during driving by providing a deeper insight into the neuro-cognitive aspects of driver brain. This has been achieved by conducting simulated (and occasionally, field) driving experiments while collecting driver brain signals of various types. Here, this sector of studies is comprehensively reviewed at both macro and micro scales. At the macro scale, bibliometric aspects of these studies are analysed. At the micro scale, different themes of neuroimaging driving behaviour research are identified and the findings within each theme are synthesised. The surveyed literature has reported on applications of four major brain imaging methods. These include Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI), Electroencephalography (EEG), Functional Near-Infrared Spectroscopy (fNIRS) and Magnetoencephalography (MEG), with the first two being the most common methods in this domain. While collecting driver fMRI signal has been particularly instrumental in studying neural correlates of intoxicated driving (e.g. alcohol or cannabis) or distracted driving, the EEG method has been predominantly utilised in relation to the efforts aiming at development of automatic fatigue/drowsiness detection systems, a topic to which the literature on neuro-ergonomics of driving particularly has shown a spike of interest within the last few years. The survey also reveals that topics such as driver brain activity in semi-automated settings or neural activity of drivers with brain injuries or chronic neurological conditions have by contrast been investigated to a very limited extent. Potential topics in driving behaviour research are identified that could benefit from the adoption of neuroimaging methods in future studies. In terms of practicality, while fMRI and MEG experiments have proven rather invasive and technologically challenging for adoption in driving behaviour research, EEG and fNIRS applications have been more diverse. They have even been tested beyond simulated driving settings, in field driving experiments. Advantages and limitations of each of these four neuroimaging methods in the context of driving behaviour experiments are outlined in the paper.


Assuntos
Acidentes de Trânsito , Encéfalo , Eletroencefalografia , Humanos , Magnetoencefalografia , Neuroimagem
8.
Scientometrics ; 125(3): 2695-2726, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32981988

RESUMO

During the current century, each major coronavirus outbreak has triggered a quick and immediate surge of academic publications on its respective topic. The spike in research publications following the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19) outbreak, however, has been like no other. The global crisis caused by the Covid-19 pandemic has mobilised scientific efforts at an unprecedented scale. In less than 5 months, more than 12,000 research items and in less than seven months, more than 30,000 items were indexed, while it is projected that the number could exceed 80,000 by the end of 2020, should the current trend continues. With the health crisis affecting all aspects of life, research on Covid-19 seems to have become a focal point of interest across many academic disciplines. Here, scientometric aspects of the Covid-19 literature are analysed and contrasted with those of the two previous major coronavirus diseases, i.e., Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS). The focus is on the co-occurrence of key-terms, bibliographic coupling and citation relations of journals and collaborations between countries. Interesting recurring patterns across all three literatures were discovered. All three outbreaks have commonly generated three distinct cohorts of studies: (i) studies linked to public health response and epidemic control, (ii) studies on chemical constitution of the virus; and (iii) studies related to treatment, vaccine and clinical care. While studies affiliated with category (i) seem to have been relatively earliest to emerge, they have overall received relatively smaller number of citations compared to publications the two other categories. Covid-19 studies seem to have been disseminated across a broader variety of journals and across a more diverse range of subject areas. Clear links are observed between the geographical origins of each outbreak as well as the local geographical severity of each outbreak and the magnitude of research originated from regions. Covid-19 studies also display the involvement of authors from a broader variety of countries compared to SARS and MERS. Considering the speed at which the Covid-19-related literature is accumulating, an interesting dimension that warrants further exploration could be to assess if the quality and rigour of these publications have been affected.

9.
Saf Sci ; 129: 104806, 2020 Sep.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32382213

RESUMO

The COVID-19 global pandemic has generated an abundance of research quickly following the outbreak. Within only a few months, more than a thousand studies on this topic have already appeared in the scientific literature. In this short review, we analyse the bibliometric aspects of these studies on a macro level, as well as those addressing Coronaviruses in general. Furthermore, through a scoping analysis of the literature on COVID-19, we identify the main safety-related dimensions that these studies have thus far addressed. Our findings show that across various research domains, and apart from the medical and clinical aspects such as the safety of vaccines and treatments, issues related to patient transport safety, occupational safety of healthcare professionals, biosafety of laboratories and facilities, social safety, food safety, and particularly mental/psychological health and domestic safety have thus far attracted most attention of the scientific community in relation to the COVID-19 pandemic. Our analysis also uncovers various potentially significant safety problems caused by this global health emergency which currently have attracted only limited scientific focus but may warrant more attention. These include matters such as cyber safety, economic safety, and supply-chain safety. These findings highlight why, from an academic research perspective, a holistic interdisciplinary approach and a collective scientific effort is required to help understand and mitigate the various safety impacts of this crisis whose implications reach far beyond the bio-medical risks. Such holistic safety-scientific understanding of the COVID-19 crisis can furthermore be instrumental to be better prepared for a future pandemic.

10.
Value Health ; 22(9): 1050-1062, 2019 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31511182

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Lack of evidence about the external validity of discrete choice experiments (DCEs) is one of the barriers that inhibit greater use of DCEs in healthcare decision making. OBJECTIVES: To determine whether the number of alternatives in a DCE choice task should reflect the actual decision context, and how complex the choice model needs to be to be able to predict real-world healthcare choices. METHODS: Six DCEs were used, which varied in (1) medical condition (involving choices for influenza vaccination or colorectal cancer screening) and (2) the number of alternatives per choice task. For each medical condition, 1200 respondents were randomized to one of the DCE formats. The data were analyzed in a systematic way using random-utility-maximization choice processes. RESULTS: Irrespective of the number of alternatives per choice task, the choice for influenza vaccination and colorectal cancer screening was correctly predicted by DCE at an aggregate level, if scale and preference heterogeneity were taken into account. At an individual level, 3 alternatives per choice task and the use of a heteroskedastic error component model plus observed preference heterogeneity seemed to be most promising (correctly predicting >93% of choices). CONCLUSIONS: Our study shows that DCEs are able to predict choices-mimicking real-world decisions-if at least scale and preference heterogeneity are taken into account. Patient characteristics (eg, numeracy, decision-making style, and general attitude for and experience with the health intervention) seem to play a crucial role. Further research is needed to determine whether this result remains in other contexts.


Assuntos
Tomada de Decisões , Técnicas de Apoio para a Decisão , Preferência do Paciente , Idoso , Comportamento de Escolha , Feminino , Serviços de Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Países Baixos , Aceitação pelo Paciente de Cuidados de Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Reprodutibilidade dos Testes
11.
Value Health ; 22(10): 1162-1169, 2019 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31563259

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: This article explains how to optimize Bayesian D-efficient discrete choice experiment (DCE) designs for the estimation of quality-adjusted life year (QALY) tariffs that are unconfounded by respondents' time preferences. METHODS: The calculation of Bayesian D-errors is explained for DCE designs that allow for the disentanglement of respondents' time and health-state preferences. Time preferences are modelled via an exponential, hyperbolic, or power discount function and the performance of the proposed DCE designs is compared with that of several conventional DCE designs that do not take nonlinear time preferences into account. RESULTS: Based on the achieved D-error, asymptotic standard error, and estimated sample size to obtain statistically significant estimates of the discount rate parameters, the proposed designs outperform the conventional DCE designs. CONCLUSIONS: We recommend that applied researchers use appropriately optimized DCE designs for the estimation of QALY tariffs that are corrected for time preferences. The TPC-QALY software package that accompanies this article makes the recommended designs easily accessible for health-state valuation researchers.


Assuntos
Teorema de Bayes , Comportamento de Escolha , Análise Custo-Benefício , Anos de Vida Ajustados por Qualidade de Vida , Algoritmos , Humanos , Inquéritos e Questionários , Fatores de Tempo
12.
Heart ; 105(10): 761-767, 2019 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30636219

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: Transition towards value-based healthcare requires insight into what makes value to the individual. The aim was to elicit individual preferences for cardiovascular disease screening with respect to the difficult balancing of good and harm as well as mode of delivery. METHODS: A discrete choice experiment was conducted as a cross-sectional survey among 1231 male screening participants at three Danish hospitals between June and December 2017. Participants chose between hypothetical screening programmes characterised by varying levels of mortality risk reduction, avoidance of overtreatment, avoidance of regretting participation, screening duration and location. A multinomial mixed logit model was used to model the preferences and the willingness to trade mortality risk reduction for improvements on other characteristics. RESULTS: Respondents expressed preferences for improvements on all programme characteristics. They were willing to give up 0.09 (95% CI 0.08 to 0.09) lives saved per 1000 screened to avoid one individual being over treated. Similarly, respondents were willing to give up 1.22 (95% CI 0.90 to 1.55) or 5.21 (95% CI 4.78 to 5.67) lives saved per 1000 screened to upgrade the location from general practice to a hospital or to a high-tech hospital, respectively. Subgroup analysis revealed important preference heterogeneity with respect to smoking status, level of health literacy and self-perceived risk of cardiovascular disease. CONCLUSIONS: Individuals are able to express clear preferences about what makes value to them. Not only health benefit but also time with health professionals and access to specialised facilities were important. This information could guide the optimal programme design in search of value-based healthcare.


Assuntos
Doenças Cardiovasculares/diagnóstico , Comportamento de Escolha , Técnicas de Diagnóstico Cardiovascular , Preferência do Paciente , Seguro de Saúde Baseado em Valor , Idoso , Doenças Cardiovasculares/economia , Doenças Cardiovasculares/mortalidade , Doenças Cardiovasculares/terapia , Estudos Transversais , Dinamarca , Técnicas de Diagnóstico Cardiovascular/efeitos adversos , Pesquisas sobre Atenção à Saúde , Conhecimentos, Atitudes e Prática em Saúde , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Valor Preditivo dos Testes , Medição de Risco , Fatores de Risco , Seguro de Saúde Baseado em Valor/economia
13.
Sci Rep ; 7: 42431, 2017 02 13.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28205599

RESUMO

Several growth models have been proposed in the literature for scale-free complex networks, with a range of fitness-based attachment models gaining prominence recently. However, the processes by which such fitness-based attachment behaviour can arise are less well understood, making it difficult to compare the relative merits of such models. This paper analyses an evolutionary mechanism that would give rise to a fitness-based attachment process. In particular, it is proven by analytical and numerical methods that in homogeneous networks, the minimisation of maximum exposure to node unfitness leads to attachment probabilities that are proportional to node fitness. This result is then extended to heterogeneous networks, with supply chain networks being used as an example.


Assuntos
Algoritmos , Modelos Teóricos
14.
Appl Netw Sci ; 2(1): 33, 2017.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30443587

RESUMO

Due to the increasingly complex and interconnected nature of global supply chain networks (SCNs), a recent strand of research has applied network science methods to model SCN growth and subsequently analyse various topological features, such as robustness. This paper provides: (1) a comprehensive review of the methodologies adopted in literature for modelling the topology and robustness of SCNs; (2) a summary of topological features of the real world SCNs, as reported in various data driven studies; and (3) a discussion on the limitations of existing network growth models to realistically represent the observed topological characteristics of SCNs. Finally, a novel perspective is proposed to mimic the SCN topologies reported in empirical studies, through fitness based generative network models.

15.
Euro Surveill ; 21(22)2016 Jun 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27277581

RESUMO

This study aims to quantify and compare preferences of citizens from different European countries for vaccination programme characteristics during pandemics, caused by pathogens which are transmitted through respiratory droplets. Internet panel members, nationally representative based on age, sex, educational level and region, of four European Union Member States (Netherlands, Poland, Spain, and Sweden, n = 2,068) completed an online discrete choice experiment. These countries, from different geographical areas of Europe, were chosen because of the availability of high-quality Internet panels and because of the cooperation between members of the project entitled Effective Communication in Outbreak Management: development of an evidence-based tool for Europe (ECOM). Data were analysed using panel latent class regression models. In the case of a severe pandemic scenario, vaccine effectiveness was the most important characteristic determining vaccination preference in all countries, followed by the body that advises on vaccination. In Sweden, the advice of family and/or friends and the advice of physicians strongly affected vaccine preferences, in contrast to Poland and Spain, where the advice of (international) health authorities was more decisive. Irrespective of pandemic scenario or vaccination programme characteristics, the predicted vaccination uptakes were lowest in Sweden, and highest in Poland. To increase vaccination uptake during future pandemics, the responsible authorities should align with other important stakeholders in the country and communicate in a coordinated manner.


Assuntos
Comportamento de Escolha , Doenças Transmissíveis/psicologia , Programas de Imunização/estatística & dados numéricos , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Aceitação pelo Paciente de Cuidados de Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Vacinação/psicologia , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Doenças Transmissíveis/imunologia , Europa (Continente)/epidemiologia , Inquéritos Epidemiológicos , Humanos , Vacinas contra Influenza/uso terapêutico , Influenza Humana/prevenção & controle , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Países Baixos/epidemiologia , Polônia/epidemiologia , Valor Preditivo dos Testes , Espanha/epidemiologia , Suécia/epidemiologia , Vacinação/estatística & dados numéricos , Adulto Jovem
16.
PLoS One ; 10(11): e0142507, 2015.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26571374

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: To improve the information for and preparation of citizens at risk to hazardous material transport accidents, a first important step is to determine how different characteristics of hazardous material transport accidents will influence citizens' protective behaviour. However, quantitative studies investigating citizens' protective behaviour in case of hazardous material transport accidents are scarce. METHODS: A discrete choice experiment was conducted among subjects (19-64 years) living in the direct vicinity of a large waterway. Scenarios were described by three transport accident characteristics: odour perception, smoke/vapour perception, and the proportion of people in the environment that were leaving at their own discretion. Subjects were asked to consider each scenario as realistic and to choose the alternative that was most appealing to them: staying, seeking shelter, or escaping. A panel error component model was used to quantify how different transport accident characteristics influenced subjects' protective behaviour. RESULTS: The response was 44% (881/1,994). The predicted probability that a subject would stay ranged from 1% in case of a severe looking accident till 62% in case of a mild looking accident. All three transport accident characteristics proved to influence protective behaviour. Particularly a perception of strong ammonia or mercaptan odours and visible smoke/vapour close to citizens had the strongest positive influence on escaping. In general, 'escaping' was more preferred than 'seeking shelter', although stated preference heterogeneity among subjects for these protective behaviour options was substantial. Males were less willing to seek shelter than females, whereas elderly people were more willing to escape than younger people. CONCLUSION: Various characteristics of transport accident involving hazardous materials influence subjects' protective behaviour. The preference heterogeneity shows that information needs to be targeted differently depending on gender and age to prepare citizens properly.


Assuntos
Vazamento de Resíduos Químicos , Substâncias Perigosas , Comportamento de Redução do Risco , Rios , Segurança , Adulto , Comportamento de Escolha , Planejamento em Desastres , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Países Baixos , Odorantes , Probabilidade , Sistema de Registros , Características de Residência , Inquéritos e Questionários , Adulto Jovem
17.
Accid Anal Prev ; 76: 118-32, 2015 Mar.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25638284

RESUMO

Driver behaviour is a contributing factor in over 90 percent of road crashes. As a consequence, there is significant benefit in identifying drivers who engage in unsafe driving practices. Driver behaviour profiles (DBPs) are introduced here as an approach for evaluating driver behaviour as a function of the risk of a casualty crash. They employ data collected using global positioning system (GPS) devices, supplemented with spatiotemporal information. These profiles are comprised of common risk scores that can be used to compare drivers between each other and across time and space. The paper details the development of these DBPs and demonstrates their use as an input into modelling the factors that influence driver behaviour. The results show that even having controlled for the influence of the road environment, these factors remain the strongest predictors of driver behaviour suggesting different spatiotemporal environments elicit a variety of psychological responses in drivers. The approach and outcomes will be of interest to insurance companies in enhancing the risk-profiling of drivers with on-road driving and government through assessing the impacts of behaviour-change interventions.


Assuntos
Acidentes de Trânsito/prevenção & controle , Acidentes de Trânsito/psicologia , Condução de Veículo/psicologia , Medição de Risco , Segurança , Aceleração , Algoritmos , Humanos , Assunção de Riscos , Comportamento Espacial , Percepção Visual
18.
Accid Anal Prev ; 75: 298-309, 2015 Feb.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25543101

RESUMO

New road safety strategies continue to be devised by researchers and policy makers with pay-as-you-drive (PAYD) schemes gaining increasing attention. However, empirically measuring the effectiveness of these strategies is challenging due to the influence of the road environment and other factors external to the driver. The analysis presented here applies Temporal and Spatial Identifiers to control for the road environment and Driver Behaviour Profiles to provide a common measure of driving behaviour based on the risk of a casualty crash for assessing the effectiveness of a PAYD scheme on reducing driving risks. The results show that in many cases personalised feedback alone is sufficient to induce significant changes, but the largest reductions in risk are observed when drivers are also awarded a financial incentive to change behaviour. Importantly, the more frequent the exposure to the speeding information, the greater the magnitude of the change. However, the changes are disproportionately associated with those that were already safer drivers in the baseline period suggesting that some drivers may be predisposed to changing their behaviour. These results suggest that it would be beneficial to provide real-time or daily feedback on speeding behaviour in conjunction with a financial reward scheme, potentially as a component of insurance premiums.


Assuntos
Condução de Veículo/psicologia , Retroalimentação , Motivação , Segurança , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Austrália , Conscientização , Estudos Controlados Antes e Depois , Feminino , Humanos , Seguro , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Risco , Comportamento de Redução do Risco , Adulto Jovem
19.
PLoS One ; 9(7): e102505, 2014.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25057914

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Preventive measures are essential to limit the spread of new viruses; their uptake is key to their success. However, the vaccination uptake in pandemic outbreaks is often low. We aim to elicit how disease and vaccination characteristics determine preferences of the general public for new pandemic vaccinations. METHODS: In an internet-based discrete choice experiment (DCE) a representative sample of 536 participants (49% participation rate) from the Dutch population was asked for their preference for vaccination programs in hypothetical communicable disease outbreaks. We used scenarios based on two disease characteristics (susceptibility to and severity of the disease) and five vaccination program characteristics (effectiveness, safety, advice regarding vaccination, media attention, and out-of-pocket costs). The DCE design was based on a literature review, expert interviews and focus group discussions. A panel latent class logit model was used to estimate which trade-offs individuals were willing to make. RESULTS: All above mentioned characteristics proved to influence respondents' preferences for vaccination. Preference heterogeneity was substantial. Females who stated that they were never in favor of vaccination made different trade-offs than males who stated that they were (possibly) willing to get vaccinated. As expected, respondents preferred and were willing to pay more for more effective vaccines, especially if the outbreak was more serious (€6-€39 for a 10% more effective vaccine). Changes in effectiveness, out-of-pocket costs and in the body that advises the vaccine all substantially influenced the predicted uptake. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that various disease and vaccination program characteristics influence respondents' preferences for pandemic vaccination programs. Agencies responsible for preventive measures during pandemics can use the knowledge that out-of-pocket costs and the way advice is given affect vaccination uptake to improve their plans for future pandemic outbreaks. The preference heterogeneity shows that information regarding vaccination needs to be targeted differently depending on gender and willingness to get vaccinated.


Assuntos
Comportamento de Escolha , Doenças Transmissíveis/psicologia , Modelos Estatísticos , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Vacinação , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Doenças Transmissíveis/economia , Doenças Transmissíveis/imunologia , Suscetibilidade a Doenças , Feminino , Gastos em Saúde , Humanos , Programas de Imunização/estatística & dados numéricos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Países Baixos , Índice de Gravidade de Doença , Inquéritos e Questionários
20.
Pharmacoeconomics ; 31(12): 1169-83, 2013 Dec.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-24178372

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Most researchers in health economics cite random utility theory (RUT) when analysing discrete choice experiments (DCEs). Under RUT, the error term is associated with the analyst's inability to properly capture the true choice processes of the respondent as well as the inconsistency or mistakes arising from the respondent themselves. Under such assumptions, it stands to reason that analysts should explore more complex nonlinear indirect utility functions, than currently used in healthcare, to strive for better estimates of preferences in healthcare. OBJECTIVE: To test whether complex indirect utility functions decrease error variance for models that either implicitly (i.e. the multinomial logit (MNL) model) or explicitly (i.e. entropy multinomial logit (EMNL) model) account for error variance in health(care)-related DCEs; and to determine the impact of complex indirect utility functions on willingness-to-pay (WTP) measures. METHODS: Using data from DCEs aimed at healthcare-related decisions, we empirically compared (1) complex and simple indirect utility specifications in terms of goodness of fit, (2) their impact on WTP measures, including confidence intervals (CIs) based on the Delta method, the Krinsky and Robb-procedure, and Bootstrapping, and (3) MNL and EMNL model results. RESULTS: Complex indirect utility functions had a better model fit than simple specifications (p < 0.05). WTP estimates were quite similar across alternative specifications. The Delta method produced the most narrow CIs. The EMNL model showed that respondents apply simplifying strategies when answering DCE questions. CONCLUSION: Complex indirect utility functions reduce error arisen from researchers, which can have important implications for measures in healthcare such as the WTP, whereas EMNL provides insights into the behaviour of respondents when answering DCEs. Understanding how respondents answer DCE questions may allow researchers to construct DCEs that minimise scale differences, so that the decision error made across respondents is more homogeneous and therefore taken out as additional noise in the data. Hence, better estimates of preferences in healthcare can be provided.


Assuntos
Comportamento de Escolha , Técnicas de Apoio para a Decisão , Atenção à Saúde/economia , Financiamento Pessoal , Modelos Econômicos , Avaliação da Tecnologia Biomédica , Financiamento Pessoal/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Dinâmica não Linear , Satisfação do Paciente/economia , Inquéritos e Questionários , Avaliação da Tecnologia Biomédica/estatística & dados numéricos
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