Hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance based on the Australian Consensus Guidelines: a health economic modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the fastest increasing cause of cancer death in Australia. A recent Australian consensus guidelines recommended HCC surveillance for cirrhotic patients and non-cirrhotic chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients at gender and age specific cut-offs. A cost-effectiveness model was then developed to assess surveillance strategies in Australia. METHODS: A microsimulation model was used to evaluate three strategies: biannual ultrasound, biannual ultrasound with alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and no formal surveillance for patients having one of the conditions: non-cirrhotic CHB, compensated cirrhosis or decompensated cirrhosis. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses as well as scenario and threshold analyses were conducted to account for uncertainties: including exclusive surveillance of CHB, compensated cirrhosis or decompensated cirrhosis populations; impact of obesity on ultrasound sensitivity; real-world adherence rate; and different cohort's ranges of ages. RESULTS: Sixty HCC surveillance scenarios were considered for the baseline population. The ultrasound + AFP strategy was the most cost-effective with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) compared to no surveillance falling below the willingness-to-pay threshold of A$50,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) at all age ranges. Ultrasound alone was also cost-effective, but the strategy was dominated by ultrasound + AFP. Surveillance was cost-effective in the compensated and decompensated cirrhosis populations alone (ICERs < $30,000), but not cost-effective in the CHB population (ICERs > $100,000). Obesity could decrease the diagnostic performance of ultrasound, which in turn, reduce the cost-effectiveness of ultrasound ± AFP, but the strategies remained cost-effective. CONCLUSIONS: HCC surveillance based on Australian recommendations using biannual ultrasound ± AFP was cost-effective.

COVID-19 in Vietnam and Its Impact on Road Trauma: Retrospective Study Based on National Data.

BACKGROUND: Despite significant improvement in the last decade, road trauma remains a substantial contributor to deaths in Vietnam. The COVID-19 pandemic necessitated public health measures that had an unforeseen benefit on road trauma in high-income countries. We investigate if this reduction was also seen in a low- to middle-income country like Vietnam. OBJECTIVE: Our aim was to investigate how the COVID-19 pandemic and the government policies implemented in response to it impacted road trauma fatalities in Vietnam. We also compared this impact to other government policies related to road trauma implemented in the preceding 14 years (2007-2020). METHODS: COVID-19 data were extracted from the Vietnamese Ministry of Health database. Road traffic deaths from 2007 to 2021 were derived from the Vietnamese General Statistical Office. We used Stata software (version 17; StataCorp) for statistical analysis. Poisson regression modeling was used to estimate trends in road fatality rates based on annual national mortality data for the 2007-2021 period. The actual change in road traffic mortality in 2021 was compared with calculated figures to demonstrate the effect of COVID-19 on road trauma fatalities. We also compared this impact to other government policies that aimed to reduce traffic-related fatalities from 2007 to 2020. RESULTS: Between 2007 and 2020, the number of annual road traffic deaths decreased by more than 50%, from 15.3 to 7 per 100,000 population, resulting in an average reduction of 5.4% per annum. We estimated that the road traffic mortality rate declined by 12.1% (95% CI 8.9-15.3%) in 2021 relative to this trend. The actual number of road trauma deaths fell by 16.4%. This reduction was largely seen from August to October 2021 when lockdown and social distancing measures were in force. CONCLUSIONS: In 2021, the road traffic-related death reduction in Vietnam was 3 times greater than the trend seen in the preceding 14 years. The public health response to the COVID-19 pandemic in Vietnam was associated with a third of this reduction. It can thus be concluded that government policies implemented to address the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a 4.3% decrease in road traffic deaths in 2021. This has been observed in high-income countries, but we have demonstrated this for the first time in a low- and middle-income country.

Survival of primary liver cancer for people from culturally and linguistically diverse backgrounds in Australia.

BACKGROUND: Survival for Primary Liver Cancer (PLC) has been investigated in Australia, but limited work has been conducted on the burden for people with different socioeconomic status, region of residence, causes of PLC, and culturally and linguistically diverse (CALD) backgrounds. This study aimed to cover this gap in the literature by investigating PLC survival with the aforementioned factors. METHODS: This study linked four administrative datasets: Victorian Cancer Registry, Admitted Episodes Dataset, Emergency Minimum Dataset, and Death Index. The cohort was all cases with a PLC notification within the Victorian Cancer Registry between 01/01/2008 and 01/01/2016. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate survival probabilities and the log-rank test was used to compare the difference in survival between subgroups. The Cox proportional hazard model was used to explore factors associated with PLC survival. RESULTS: The 1-, 3- and 5-year survival rates were 50.0%, 28.1% and 20.6%, respectively, with a median survival of 12.0 months (95% confidence interval (CI): 11.0 - 12.9 months). Higher survival was associated with younger age, hepatocellular carcinoma, and higher socio-economic status. People born in Asian, African, and American regions had higher survival than those born in Australia and New Zealand. Cases with viral hepatitis as an identified aetiology had higher survival than those whose PLC was related to alcohol consumption (hazard ratio=1.52, 95% CI: 1.19 - 1.96), diabetes and fatty liver disease (hazard ratio=1.35, 95% CI: 1.08 - 1.68). CONCLUSION: Survival outcomes for people diagnosed with PLC were still poor and affected by many factors. Asian and African cases had better survival than Australian and New Zealand patients as PLC in Asian and African cases was mostly caused by viral hepatitis. Metropolitan areas were associated with a higher survival than rural areas, not only due to accessibility to surveillance and healthcare services but also because the majority of overseas-born patients reside in metropolitan areas.

Hospitalisation costs of primary liver cancer in Australia: evidence from a data-linkage study.

Objective This study aimed to estimate the public hospital costs associated with primary liver cancer (PLC) in the first and second years following the cancer diagnosis. Methods This study linked administrative datasets of patients diagnosed with PLC in Victoria, Australia, from January 2008 to December 2015. The health system perspective was adopted to estimate the direct healthcare costs associated with PLC, based on inpatient and emergency costs. Costs were estimated for the first 12 months and 12-24 months after the PLC diagnosis and expressed in 2017 Australian dollars (A$). The cost estimated was then extrapolated nationally. The linear mixed model with a Box-Cox transformation of the costs was used to explore the relationship between costs and patients' sociodemographic and clinical characteristics. Results For the first 12 months, the total and annual per-patient cost was A$211.4 million and A$63 664, respectively. Costs for the subsequent year were A$49.7 million and A$46 751, respectively. Regarding the cost extrapolation to Australia, the total cost was A$137 million for the first 12 months after notification and A$42.6 million for the period from 12 to 24 months. Higher costs per episode of care were mostly associated with older age, hepatocellular carcinoma type of PLC, metropolitan hospitals, and Asian birth region. Conclusion This study showed the public hospital admission and emergency costs associated with PLC and the substantial economic burden this cancer has placed on the Australian health system.

Trauma Care Training in Vietnam: Narrative Scoping Review.

BACKGROUND: The model of trauma in Vietnam has changed significantly over the last decade and requires reforming medical education to deal with new circumstances. Our aim is to evaluate this transition regarding the new target by analyzing trauma and the medical training system as a whole. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to establish if medical training in the developing country of Vietnam has adapted to the new disease pattern of road trauma emerging in its economy. METHODS: A review was performed of Vietnamese medical school, Ministry of Health, and Ministry of Education and Training literature on trauma education. The review process and final review paper were prepared following the guidelines on scoping reviews and using the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) flowchart. RESULTS: The current trauma training at the undergraduate level is minimal and involves less than 5% of the total credit. At the postgraduate level, only the specialties of surgery and anesthesia have a significant and increasing trauma training component ranging from 8% to 22% in the content. Trauma training, which focuses on practical skills, accounts for 31% and 32% of the training time of orientation courses for young doctors in "basic surgery" and "basic anesthesia," respectively. Other relevant short course trainings, such as continuing medical education, in trauma are available, but they vary in topics, facilitators, participants, and formats. CONCLUSIONS: Medical training in Vietnam has not adapted to the new emerging disease pattern of road trauma. In the interim, the implementation of short courses, such as basic trauma life support and primary trauma care, can be considered as an appropriate method to compensate for the insufficient competency-related trauma care among health care workers while waiting for the effectiveness of medical training reformation.

Sex differences in total cholesterol of Vietnamese adults.

BACKGROUND: The mid-life emergence of higher levels of total cholesterol (TC) for women than for men has been observed in different Western and Asian populations. The aim of this study was to investigate whether there is evidence of this in Vietnam and, if so, whether it can be explained by ageing, by body size and fatness, or by socio-demographic characteristics and behavioural factors. METHODS: Participants (n = 14706, 50.9% females) aged 25-64 years were selected by multi-stage stratified cluster sampling from eight provinces each representing one of the eight geographical regions of Vietnam. Measurements were made using the World Health Organization STEPS protocols. Linear regression was used to assess the independent contributions of potential explanatory factors to mean levels of TC. Data were analysed using complex survey methods. RESULTS: Men and women had similar mean levels of body mass index (BMI), and men had modestly higher mean levels of waist circumference (WC), in each 5-year age category. The mean TC of women increased more or less continuously across the age range but with a step-up at age 50 years to reach higher concentrations on average than those of their male counterparts. The estimated step-up was not eliminated by adjustment for anthropometric indices including BMI or WC, or by adjustment for socio-demographic characteristics or behavioural factors. The estimated step-up was least for women with the greatest weight. CONCLUSION: There is a marked step-up in TC at age 50 years for Vietnamese women that cannot be explained by their age, or by their body fatness or its distribution, or by their socio-demographic characteristics or behavioural factors, and which results in greater mean levels of TC for middle-aged women than for their male counterparts in Vietnam.

A Systematic Review and Narrative Synthesis of Health Economic Evaluations of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Screening Strategies.

OBJECTIVES: Many economic evaluations of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) screenings have been conducted; however, these vary substantially with regards to screening strategies, patient group, and setting. This review aims to report the current knowledge of the cost-effectiveness of screening and describe the published data. METHODS: We conducted a search of biomedical and health economic databases up to July 2020. We included full and partial health economic studies if they evaluated the costs or outcomes of HCC screening strategies. RESULTS: The review included 43 studies. Due to significant heterogeneity in key aspects across the studies, a narrative synthesis was conducted. Most studies reported using ultrasound or alpha fetoprotein as screening strategies. Screening intervals were mostly annual or biannual. Incidence, diagnostic performance, and health state utility values were the most critical parameters affecting the cost-effectiveness of screening. The majority of studies reported HCC screening to be cost-effective, with the biannual ultrasound + alpha fetoprotein standing out as the most cost-effective strategy. However, few studies considered the utilization rate, and none considered the diagnostic performance of ultrasound in the context of central adiposity. Computed tomography and magnetic resonance imaging were also evaluated, but its cost-effectiveness was still controversial. CONCLUSIONS: Although many studies suggested HCC screening was cost-effective, substantial limitations of the quality of these studies means the results should be interpreted with caution. Future modeling studies should consider the impact of central adiposity on the precision of ultrasound, real-world utilization rates and projections of increased HCC incidence.

The Interdependence of Blood Pressure and Glucose in Vietnam.

INTRODUCTION: Modelling of associations of systolic blood pressure (BP) and blood glucose (BG) with their explanatory factors in separate regressions treats them as having independent biological mechanisms. This can lead to statistical inferences that are unreliable because the substantial overlap in their etiologic and disease mechanisms is ignored. AIM: This study aimed to examine the relationship of systolic blood pressure (BP) and blood glucose (BG) with measures of obesity and central fat distribution and other factors whilst taking account of the inter-dependence between them. METHODS: Participants (n = 14706, 53.5 % females) aged 25-64 years were selected by multi-stage stratified cluster sampling from eight provinces each representing one of the eight geographical regions of Vietnam. Measurements were made using the World Health Organization STEPS protocols. RESULTS: Structural modelling identified direct effects for BG (men P = 0.000, women P = 0.029), age (men P = 0.000, women P = 0.000) and body mass index (BMI) (men P = 0.000, women P = 0.000) in the estimation of systolic BP, and for systolic BP (men P = 0.036, women P = 0.000) and waist circumference (WC) (men P = 0.032, women P = 0.009) in the estimation of BG. There were indirect effects of age, cholesterol, physical activity and tobacco smoking via their influence on WC and BMI. The errors in estimation of systolic BP and BG were correlated (men P = 0.000, women P = 0.004), the stability indices (men 0.466, women 0.495) showed the non-recursive models were stable, and the proportion of variance explained was mid-range (men 0.553, women 0.579). CONCLUSION: This study provided statistical evidence of a feedback loop between systolic BP and BG. BMI and WC were confirmed to be their primary explanatory factors. Saturated fat intake and physical activity were identified as possible targets of intervention for overweight and obesity, and indirectly for reducing systolic BP and BG. Harmful/hazardous alcohol intake was identified as a target of intervention for systolic BP.

Association of ambient particulate matter with heart failure incidence and all-cause readmissions in Tasmania: an observational study.

OBJECTIVES: We sought to investigate the relationship between air quality and heart failure (HF) incidence and rehospitalisation to elucidate whether there is a threshold in this relationship and whether this relationship differs for HF incidence and rehospitalisation. METHODS: This retrospective observational study was performed in an Australian state-wide setting, where air pollution is mainly associated with wood-burning for winter heating. Data included all 1246 patients with a first-ever HF hospitalisation and their 3011 subsequent all-cause readmissions during 2009-2012. Daily particulate matter <2.5 µm (PM2.5), temperature, relative humidity and influenza infection were recorded. Poisson regression was used, with adjustment for time trend, public and school holiday and day of week. RESULTS: Tasmania has excellent air quality (median PM2.5=2.9 µg/m3 (IQR: 1.8-6.0)). Greater HF incidences and readmissions occurred in winter than in other seasons (p<0.001). PM2.5 was detrimentally associated with HF incidence (risk ratio (RR)=1.29 (1.15-1.42)) and weakly so with readmission (RR=1.07 (1.02-1.17)), with 1 day time lag. In multivariable analyses, PM2.5 significantly predicted HF incidence (RR=1.12 (1.01-1.24)) but not readmission (RR=0.96 (0.89-1.04)). HF incidence was similarly low when PM <4 µg/m3 and only started to rise when PM2.5≥4 µg/m3. Stratified analyses showed that PM2.5 was associated with readmissions among patients not taking beta-blockers but not among those taking beta-blockers (pinteraction=0.011). CONCLUSIONS: PM2.5 predicted HF incidence, independent of other environmental factors. A possible threshold of PM2.5=4 µg/m3 is far below the daily Australian national standard of 25 µg/m3. Our data suggest that beta-blockers might play a role in preventing adverse association between air pollution and patients with HF.

The importance of waist circumference and body mass index in cross-sectional relationships with risk of cardiovascular disease in Vietnam.

BACKGROUND: Waist circumference (WC) is an indicator of intra-abdominal adipose tissue, high levels of which confer an increased risk of cardiometabolic disease. Population data on WC should be more informative than data on body mass index (BMI), which is a general indicator of body size. This study aimed to evaluate the importance of WC relative to BMI in cross-sectional relationships with blood pressure (BP), glucose, and total cholesterol (TC) in the adult population of Vietnam. METHODS: The data were collected in a population-based survey conducted during 2009-10 using the "WHO STEPwise approach to surveillance of risk factors for non-communicable disease" (STEPS) methodology. The survey participants (n = 14 706 aged 25 to 64 years) were selected by multi-stage stratified cluster sampling from eight provinces representative of the eight geographical regions of Vietnam. All measurements were performed in accordance with the STEPS protocols. All analyses were performed using complex survey methods. RESULTS: The measurements of WC and BMI were highly correlated (men r = 0.80, women r = 0.77). For men, the strongest and predominant associations with BP, glucose, and TC were for WC or an index based on WC. For women, this was true for glucose but BMI was more important for BP and TC. WC or an index based on WC provided better discrimination than BMI of hypertension and elevated glucose, and of raised TC for men. Information on four new anthropometric indices did not improve model fit or subject discrimination. CONCLUSION: For BP/hypertension, glucose/elevated glucose, and TC/raised TC, WC was more informative than BMI for Vietnamese men, but both WC and BMI were important for Vietnamese women. Both WC and BMI need to be assessed for estimation of CVD risk in Vietnam.

National survey of risk factors for non-communicable disease in Vietnam: prevalence estimates and an assessment of their validity.

BACKGROUND: To estimate the prevalence of non-communicable disease (NCD) risk factors at a provincial level in Vietnam, and to assess whether the summary estimates allow reliable inferences to be drawn regarding regional differences in risk factors and associations between them. METHODS: Participants (n = 14706, 53.5 % females) aged 25-64 years were selected by multi-stage stratified cluster sampling from eight provinces each representing one of the eight geographical regions of Vietnam. Measurements were made using the World Health Organization STEPS protocols. Data were analysed using complex survey methods. RESULTS: Differences by sex in mean years of schooling (males 8.26 ± 0.20, females 7.00 ± 0.18), proportions of current smokers (males 57.70 %, females 1.73 %), and binge-drinkers (males 25.11 %, females 0.63 %), and regional differences in diet, reflected the geographical and socio-cultural characteristics of the country. Provinces with a higher proportion of urban population had greater mean levels of BMI (r = 0.82), and lesser proportions of active people (r = -0.89). The associations between the summary estimates were generally plausible (e.g. physical activity and BMI, r = -0.80) but overstated, and with some anomalous findings due to characterisation of smoking and hypertension by STEPS protocols. CONCLUSIONS: This report provides an extensive description of the sex-specific and regional distribution of NCD risk factors in Vietnam and an account of some health-related consequences of industrialisation in its early stages. The STEPS protocols can be utilized to provide aggregate data for valid between-population comparisons, but with important caveats identified.

Physical Activity in Vietnam: Estimates and Measurement Issues.

INTRODUCTION: Our aims were to provide the first national estimates of physical activity (PA) for Vietnam, and to investigate issues affecting their accuracy. METHODS: Measurements were made using the Global Physical Activity Questionnaire (GPAQ) on a nationally-representative sample of 14706 participants (46.5% males, response 64.1%) aged 25-64 years selected by multi-stage stratified cluster sampling. RESULTS: Approximately 20% of Vietnamese people had no measureable PA during a typical week, but 72.9% (men) and 69.1% (women) met WHO recommendations for PA by adults for their age. On average, 52.0 (men) and 28.0 (women) Metabolic Equivalent Task (MET)-hours/week (largely from work activities) were reported. Work and total PA were higher in rural areas and varied by season. Less than 2% of respondents provided incomplete information, but an additional one-in-six provided unrealistically high values of PA. Those responsible for reporting errors included persons from rural areas and all those with unstable work patterns. Box-Cox transformation (with an appropriate constant added) was the most successful method of reducing the influence of large values, but energy-scaled values were most strongly associated with pathophysiological outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Around seven-in-ten Vietnamese people aged 25-64 years met WHO recommendations for total PA, which was mainly from work activities and higher in rural areas. Nearly all respondents were able to report their activity using the GPAQ, but with some exaggerated values and seasonal variation in reporting. Data transformation provided plausible summary values, but energy-scaling fared best in association analyses.

Predictors of race-day jockey falls in flat racing in Australia.

OBJECTIVES: Riding thoroughbred racehorses is a hazardous occupation. In this study, we investigated risk factors associated with falls by licensed thoroughbred racing jockeys participating in flat races conducted in Australia. METHODS: Data on race-day falls were extracted from stewards' reports. Denominator data were provided by Racing Information Services Australia on races conducted in Australia from August 2002 until July 2006. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were estimated using Poisson regression. Analyses were stratified by race grade (maiden, class, open/restricted). RESULTS: In multivariable analyses, factors associated with falls were female sex of jockey (IRR 1.11; 95% CI 1.00 to 1.23), being an apprentice jockey (IRR 1.51; 95% CI 1.39 to 1.63), being an amateur jockey (IRR 1.44; 95% CI 1.11 to 1.86), drier tracks (p<0.001), younger horse age (p<0.001), shorter race distance (p<0.001), lower field size (p=0.013) and lower race grade (p<0.001). The IRRs for five factors associated with falls differed by category of race grade: those for apprentice jockey (interaction p=0.003), higher prize money (interaction p<0.001) and shorter race distance (interaction p=0.041) were greater in lower race grades, while those for fewer previous rides this meeting (interaction p=0.027) and drier track rating (interaction p=0.035) were greater in higher race grades. Female jockeys had a significantly higher incidence of falls when riding horses under 4 years of age in open and restricted races (interaction p=0.038), and the effects of lower field size in maiden races, and of shorter races, were more pronounced for falls occurring before the race. CONCLUSIONS: We identified a range of factors associated with falls to thoroughbred racing jockeys riding in flat races that adds to the evidence base for formulating strategies to improve occupational health and safety standards in the thoroughbred racing industry.