Environmental controls on the light use efficiency of terrestrial gross primary production.

Gross primary production (GPP) by terrestrial ecosystems is a key quantity in the global carbon cycle. The instantaneous controls of leaf-level photosynthesis are well established, but there is still no consensus on the mechanisms by which canopy-level GPP depends on spatial and temporal variation in the environment. The standard model of photosynthesis provides a robust mechanistic representation for C3 species; however, additional assumptions are required to "scale up" from leaf to canopy. As a consequence, competing models make inconsistent predictions about how GPP will respond to continuing environmental change. This problem is addressed here by means of an empirical analysis of the light use efficiency (LUE) of GPP inferred from eddy covariance carbon dioxide flux measurements, in situ measurements of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), and remotely sensed estimates of the fraction of PAR (fAPAR) absorbed by the vegetation canopy. Focusing on LUE allows potential drivers of GPP to be separated from its overriding dependence on light. GPP data from over 100 sites, collated over 20 years and located in a range of biomes and climate zones, were extracted from the FLUXNET2015 database and combined with remotely sensed fAPAR data to estimate daily LUE. Daytime air temperature, vapor pressure deficit, diffuse fraction of solar radiation, and soil moisture were shown to be salient predictors of LUE in a generalized linear mixed-effects model. The same model design was fitted to site-based LUE estimates generated by 16 terrestrial ecosystem models. The published models showed wide variation in the shape, the strength, and even the sign of the environmental effects on modeled LUE. These findings highlight important model deficiencies and suggest a need to progress beyond simple "goodness of fit" comparisons of inferred and predicted carbon fluxes toward an approach focused on the functional responses of the underlying dependencies.

Coordination of photosynthetic traits across soil and climate gradients.

"Least-cost theory" posits that C3 plants should balance rates of photosynthetic water loss and carboxylation in relation to the relative acquisition and maintenance costs of resources required for these activities. Here we investigated the dependency of photosynthetic traits on climate and soil properties using a new Australia-wide trait dataset spanning 528 species from 67 sites. We tested the hypotheses that plants on relatively cold or dry sites, or on relatively more fertile sites, would typically operate at greater CO2 drawdown (lower ratio of leaf internal to ambient CO2 , Ci :Ca ) during light-saturated photosynthesis, and at higher leaf N per area (Narea ) and higher carboxylation capacity (Vcmax 25 ) for a given rate of stomatal conductance to water vapour, gsw . These results would be indicative of plants having relatively higher water costs than nutrient costs. In general, our hypotheses were supported. Soil total phosphorus (P) concentration and (more weakly) soil pH exerted positive effects on the Narea -gsw and Vcmax 25 -gsw slopes, and negative effects on Ci :Ca . The P effect strengthened when the effect of climate was removed via partial regression. We observed similar trends with increasing soil cation exchange capacity and clay content, which affect soil nutrient availability, and found that soil properties explained similar amounts of variation in the focal traits as climate did. Although climate typically explained more trait variation than soil did, together they explained up to 52% of variation in the slope relationships and soil properties explained up to 30% of the variation in individual traits. Soils influenced photosynthetic traits as well as their coordination. In particular, the influence of soil P likely reflects the Australia's geologically ancient low-relief landscapes with highly leached soils. Least-cost theory provides a valuable framework for understanding trade-offs between resource costs and use in plants, including limiting soil nutrients.

Convergence in phosphorus constraints to photosynthesis in forests around the world.

Tropical forests take up more carbon (C) from the atmosphere per annum by photosynthesis than any other type of vegetation. Phosphorus (P) limitations to C uptake are paramount for tropical and subtropical forests around the globe. Yet the generality of photosynthesis-P relationships underlying these limitations are in question, and hence are not represented well in terrestrial biosphere models. Here we demonstrate the dependence of photosynthesis and underlying processes on both leaf N and P concentrations. The regulation of photosynthetic capacity by P was similar across four continents. Implementing P constraints in the ORCHIDEE-CNP model, gross photosynthesis was reduced by 36% across the tropics and subtropics relative to traditional N constraints and unlimiting leaf P. Our results provide a quantitative relationship for the P dependence for photosynthesis for the front-end of global terrestrial C models that is consistent with canopy leaf measurements.

Leaf nitrogen from the perspective of optimal plant function.

Leaf dry mass per unit area (LMA), carboxylation capacity (V cmax) and leaf nitrogen per unit area (Narea) and mass (Nmass) are key traits for plant functional ecology and ecosystem modelling. There is however no consensus about how these traits are regulated, or how they should be modelled. Here we confirm that observed leaf nitrogen across species and sites can be estimated well from observed LMA and V cmax at 25°C (V cmax25). We then test the hypothesis that global variations of both quantities depend on climate variables in specific ways that are predicted by leaf-level optimality theory, thus allowing both Narea to be predicted as functions of the growth environment.A new global compilation of field measurements was used to quantify the empirical relationships of leaf N to V cmax25 and LMA. Relationships of observed V cmax25 and LMA to climate variables were estimated, and compared to independent theoretical predictions of these relationships. Soil effects were assessed by analysing biases in the theoretical predictions.LMA was the most important predictor of Narea (increasing) and Nmass (decreasing). About 60% of global variation across species and sites in observed Narea, and 31% in Nmass, could be explained by observed LMA and V cmax25. These traits, in turn, were quantitatively related to climate variables, with significant partial relationships similar or indistinguishable from those predicted by optimality theory. Predicted trait values explained 21% of global variation in observed site-mean V cmax25, 43% in LMA and 31% in Narea. Predicted V cmax25 was biased low on clay-rich soils but predicted LMA was biased high, with compensating effects on Narea. Narea was overpredicted on organic soils. Synthesis. Global patterns of variation in observed site-mean Narea can be explained by climate-induced variations in optimal V cmax25 and LMA. Leaf nitrogen should accordingly be modelled as a consequence (not a cause) of V cmax25 and LMA, both being optimized to the environment. Nitrogen limitation of plant growth would then be modelled principally via whole-plant carbon allocation, rather than via leaf-level traits. Further research is required to better understand and model the terrestrial nitrogen and carbon cycles and their coupling.

Global climate and nutrient controls of photosynthetic capacity.

There is huge uncertainty about how global exchanges of carbon between the atmosphere and land will respond to continuing environmental change. A better representation of photosynthetic capacity is required for Earth System models to simulate carbon assimilation reliably. Here we use a global leaf-trait dataset to test whether photosynthetic capacity is quantitatively predictable from climate, based on optimality principles; and to explore how this prediction is modified by soil properties, including indices of nitrogen and phosphorus availability, measured in situ. The maximum rate of carboxylation standardized to 25 °C (Vcmax25) was found to be proportional to growing-season irradiance, and to increase-as predicted-towards both colder and drier climates. Individual species' departures from predicted Vcmax25 covaried with area-based leaf nitrogen (Narea) but community-mean Vcmax25 was unrelated to Narea, which in turn was unrelated to the soil C:N ratio. In contrast, leaves with low area-based phosphorus (Parea) had low Vcmax25 (both between and within communities), and Parea increased with total soil P. These findings do not support the assumption, adopted in some ecosystem and Earth System models, that leaf-level photosynthetic capacity depends on soil N supply. They do, however, support a previously-noted relationship between photosynthesis and soil P supply.

Acclimation of leaf respiration temperature responses across thermally contrasting biomes.

Short-term temperature response curves of leaf dark respiration (R-T) provide insights into a critical process that influences plant net carbon exchange. This includes how respiratory traits acclimate to sustained changes in the environment. Our study analysed 860 high-resolution R-T (10-70°C range) curves for: (a) 62 evergreen species measured in two contrasting seasons across several field sites/biomes; and (b) 21 species (subset of those sampled in the field) grown in glasshouses at 20°C : 15°C, 25°C : 20°C and 30°C : 25°C, day : night. In the field, across all sites/seasons, variations in R25 (measured at 25°C) and the leaf T where R reached its maximum (Tmax ) were explained by growth T (mean air-T of 30-d before measurement), solar irradiance and vapour pressure deficit, with growth T having the strongest influence. R25 decreased and Tmax increased with rising growth T across all sites and seasons with the single exception of winter at the cool-temperate rainforest site where irradiance was low. The glasshouse study confirmed that R25 and Tmax thermally acclimated. Collectively, the results suggest: (1) thermal acclimation of leaf R is common in most biomes; and (2) the high T threshold of respiration dynamically adjusts upward when plants are challenged with warmer and hotter climates.

Acclimation of leaf respiration consistent with optimal photosynthetic capacity.

Plant respiration is an important contributor to the proposed positive global carbon-cycle feedback to climate change. However, as a major component, leaf mitochondrial ('dark') respiration (Rd ) differs among species adapted to contrasting environments and is known to acclimate to sustained changes in temperature. No accepted theory explains these phenomena or predicts its magnitude. Here we propose that the acclimation of Rd follows an optimal behaviour related to the need to maintain long-term average photosynthetic capacity (Vcmax ) so that available environmental resources can be most efficiently used for photosynthesis. To test this hypothesis, we extend photosynthetic co-ordination theory to predict the acclimation of Rd to growth temperature via a link to Vcmax , and compare predictions to a global set of measurements from 112 sites spanning all terrestrial biomes. This extended co-ordination theory predicts that field-measured Rd and Vcmax accessed at growth temperature (Rd,tg and Vcmax,tg ) should increase by 3.7% and 5.5% per degree increase in growth temperature. These acclimated responses to growth temperature are less steep than the corresponding instantaneous responses, which increase 8.1% and 9.9% per degree of measurement temperature for Rd and Vcmax respectively. Data-fitted responses proof indistinguishable from the values predicted by our theory, and smaller than the instantaneous responses. Theory and data are also shown to agree that the basal rates of both Rd and Vcmax assessed at 25°C (Rd,25 and Vcmax,25 ) decline by ~4.4% per degree increase in growth temperature. These results provide a parsimonious general theory for Rd acclimation to temperature that is simpler-and potentially more reliable-than the plant functional type-based leaf respiration schemes currently employed in most ecosystem and land-surface models.

A theory of plant function helps to explain leaf-trait and productivity responses to elevation.

Several publications have examined leaf-trait and carbon-cycling shifts along an Amazon-Andes transect spanning 3.5 km in elevation and 16°C in mean annual temperature. Photosynthetic capacity was previously shown to increase as temperature declines with increasing elevation, counteracting enzyme-kinetic effects. Primary production declines, nonetheless, due to decreasing light availability. We aimed to predict leaf-trait and production gradients from first principles, using published data to test an emerging theory whereby photosynthetic traits and primary production depend on optimal acclimation and/or adaptation to environment. We re-analysed published data for 210 species at 25 sites, fitting linear relationships to elevation for both predicted and observed photosynthetic traits and primary production. Declining leaf-internal/ambient CO2 ratio (χ) and increasing carboxylation (Vcmax ) and electron-transport (Jmax ) capacities with increasing elevation were predicted. Increases in leaf nitrogen content with elevation were explained by increasing Vcmax and leaf mass-per-area. Leaf and soil phosphorus covaried, but after controlling for elevation, no nutrient metric accounted for any additional variance in photosynthetic traits. Primary production was predicted to decline with elevation. This analysis unifies leaf and ecosystem observations in a common theoretical framework. The insensitivity of primary production to temperature is shown to emerge as a consequence of the optimisation of photosynthetic traits.

Historical changes in the stomatal limitation of photosynthesis: empirical support for an optimality principle.

The ratio of leaf internal (ci ) to ambient (ca ) partial pressure of CO2 , defined here as χ, is an index of adjustments in both leaf stomatal conductance and photosynthetic rate to environmental conditions. Measurements and proxies of this ratio can be used to constrain vegetation model uncertainties for predicting terrestrial carbon uptake and water use. We test a theory based on the least-cost optimality hypothesis for modelling historical changes in χ over the 1951-2014 period, across different tree species and environmental conditions, as reconstructed from stable carbon isotopic measurements across a global network of 103 absolutely dated tree-ring chronologies. The theory predicts optimal χ as a function of air temperature, vapour pressure deficit, ca and atmospheric pressure. The theoretical model predicts 39% of the variance in χ values across sites and years, but underestimates the intersite variability in the reconstructed χ trends, resulting in only 8% of the variance in χ trends across years explained by the model. Overall, our results support theoretical predictions that variations in χ are tightly regulated by the four environmental drivers. They also suggest that explicitly accounting for the effects of plant-available soil water and other site-specific characteristics might improve the predictions.

The validity of optimal leaf traits modelled on environmental conditions.

The ratio of leaf intercellular to ambient CO2 (χ) is modulated by stomatal conductance (gs ). These quantities link carbon (C) assimilation with transpiration, and along with photosynthetic capacities (Vcmax and Jmax ) are required to model terrestrial C uptake. We use optimization criteria based on the growth environment to generate predicted values of photosynthetic and water-use efficiency traits and test these against a unique dataset. Leaf gas-exchange parameters and carbon isotope discrimination were analysed in relation to local climate across a continental network of study sites. Sun-exposed leaves of 50 species at seven sites were measured in contrasting seasons. Values of χ predicted from growth temperature and vapour pressure deficit were closely correlated to ratios derived from C isotope (δ13 C) measurements. Correlations were stronger in the growing season. Predicted values of photosynthetic traits, including carboxylation capacity (Vcmax ), derived from δ13 C, growth temperature and solar radiation, showed meaningful agreement with inferred values derived from gas-exchange measurements. Between-site differences in water-use efficiency were, however, only weakly linked to the plant's growth environment and did not show seasonal variation. These results support the general hypothesis that many key parameters required by Earth system models are adaptive and predictable from plants' growth environments.

Plasticity of photosynthetic heat tolerance in plants adapted to thermally contrasting biomes.

In many biomes, plants are subject to heatwaves, potentially causing irreversible damage to the photosynthetic apparatus. Field surveys have documented global, temperature-dependent patterns in photosynthetic heat tolerance (PHT ); however, it remains unclear if these patterns reflect acclimation in PHT or inherent differences among species adapted to contrasting habitats. To address these unknowns, we quantified seasonal variations in Tcrit (high temperature where minimal chlorophyll-a fluorescence rises rapidly, reflecting disruption to photosystem II) in 62 species native to 6 sites from 5 thermally contrasting biomes across Australia. Tcrit and leaf fatty acid (FA) composition (important for membrane stability) were quantified in three temperature-controlled glasshouses in 20 of those species. Tcrit was greatest at hot field sites and acclimated seasonally (summer > winter, increasing on average 0.34 °C per °C increase in growth temperature). The glasshouse study showed that Tcrit was inherently higher in species from warmer habitats (increasing 0.16 °C per °C increase in origin annual mean maximum temperature) and acclimated to increasing growth temperature (0.24 °C °C-1 ). Variations in Tcrit were positively correlated with the relative abundance of saturated FAs, with FAs accounting for 40% of Tcrit variation. These results highlight the importance of both plastic adjustments and inherent differences determining contemporary continent-wide patterns in PHT .

Variation in bulk-leaf 13 C discrimination, leaf traits and water-use efficiency-trait relationships along a continental-scale climate gradient in Australia.

Large spatial and temporal gradients in rainfall and temperature occur across Australia. This heterogeneity drives ecological differentiation in vegetation structure and ecophysiology. We examined multiple leaf-scale traits, including foliar 13 C isotope discrimination (Δ13 C), rates of photosynthesis and foliar N concentration and their relationships with multiple climate variables. Fifty-five species across 27 families were examined across eight sites spanning contrasting biomes. Key questions addressed include: (i) Does Δ13 C and intrinsic water-use efficiency (WUEi ) vary with climate at a continental scale? (ii) What are the seasonal and spatial patterns in Δ13 C/WUEi across biomes and species? (iii) To what extent does Δ13 C reflect variation in leaf structural, functional and nutrient traits across climate gradients? and (iv) Does the relative importance of assimilation and stomatal conductance in driving variation in Δ13 C differ across seasons? We found that MAP, temperature seasonality, isothermality and annual temperature range exerted independent effects on foliar Δ13 C/WUEi . Temperature-related variables exerted larger effects than rainfall-related variables. The relative importance of photosynthesis and stomatal conductance (gs ) in determining Δ13 C differed across seasons: Δ13 C was more strongly regulated by gs during the dry-season and by photosynthetic capacity during the wet-season. Δ13 C was most strongly correlated, inversely, with leaf mass area ratio among all leaf attributes considered. Leaf Nmass was significantly and positively correlated with MAP during dry- and wet-seasons and with moisture index (MI) during the wet-season but was not correlated with Δ13 C. Leaf Pmass showed significant positive relationship with MAP and Δ13 C only during the dry-season. For all leaf nutrient-related traits, the relationships obtained for Δ13 C with MAP or MI indicated that Δ13 C at the species level reliably reflects the water status at the site level. Temperature and water availability, not foliar nutrient content, are the principal factors influencing Δ13 C across Australia.

Implications of improved representations of plant respiration in a changing climate.

Land-atmosphere exchanges influence atmospheric CO2. Emphasis has been on describing photosynthetic CO2 uptake, but less on respiration losses. New global datasets describe upper canopy dark respiration (R d) and temperature dependencies. This allows characterisation of baseline R d, instantaneous temperature responses and longer-term thermal acclimation effects. Here we show the global implications of these parameterisations with a global gridded land model. This model aggregates R d to whole-plant respiration R p, driven with meteorological forcings spanning uncertainty across climate change models. For pre-industrial estimates, new baseline R d increases R p and especially in the tropics. Compared to new baseline, revised instantaneous response decreases R p for mid-latitudes, while acclimation lowers this for the tropics with increases elsewhere. Under global warming, new R d estimates amplify modelled respiration increases, although partially lowered by acclimation. Future measurements will refine how R d aggregates to whole-plant respiration. Our analysis suggests R p could be around 30% higher than existing estimates.

Nitrogen and phosphorus availabilities interact to modulate leaf trait scaling relationships across six plant functional types in a controlled-environment study.

Nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) have key roles in leaf metabolism, resulting in a strong coupling of chemical composition traits to metabolic rates in field-based studies. However, in such studies, it is difficult to disentangle the effects of nutrient supply per se on trait-trait relationships. Our study assessed how high and low N (5 mM and 0.4 mM, respectively) and P (1 mM and 2 µM, respectively) supply in 37 species from six plant functional types (PTFs) affected photosynthesis (A) and respiration (R) (in darkness and light) in a controlled environment. Low P supply increased scaling exponents (slopes) of area-based log-log A-N or R-N relationships when N supply was not limiting, whereas there was no P effect under low N supply. By contrast, scaling exponents of A-P and R-P relationships were altered by P and N supply. Neither R : A nor light inhibition of leaf R was affected by nutrient supply. Light inhibition was 26% across nutrient treatments; herbaceous species exhibited a lower degree of light inhibition than woody species. Because N and P supply modulates leaf trait-trait relationships, the next generation of terrestrial biosphere models may need to consider how limitations in N and P availability affect trait-trait relationships when predicting carbon exchange.

Leaf-level photosynthetic capacity in lowland Amazonian and high-elevation Andean tropical moist forests of Peru.

We examined whether variations in photosynthetic capacity are linked to variations in the environment and/or associated leaf traits for tropical moist forests (TMFs) in the Andes/western Amazon regions of Peru. We compared photosynthetic capacity (maximal rate of carboxylation of Rubisco (Vcmax ), and the maximum rate of electron transport (Jmax )), leaf mass, nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) per unit leaf area (Ma , Na and Pa , respectively), and chlorophyll from 210 species at 18 field sites along a 3300-m elevation gradient. Western blots were used to quantify the abundance of the CO2 -fixing enzyme Rubisco. Area- and N-based rates of photosynthetic capacity at 25°C were higher in upland than lowland TMFs, underpinned by greater investment of N in photosynthesis in high-elevation trees. Soil [P] and leaf Pa were key explanatory factors for models of area-based Vcmax and Jmax but did not account for variations in photosynthetic N-use efficiency. At any given Na and Pa , the fraction of N allocated to photosynthesis was higher in upland than lowland species. For a small subset of lowland TMF trees examined, a substantial fraction of Rubisco was inactive. These results highlight the importance of soil- and leaf-P in defining the photosynthetic capacity of TMFs, with variations in N allocation and Rubisco activation state further influencing photosynthetic rates and N-use efficiency of these critically important forests.

Scaling leaf respiration with nitrogen and phosphorus in tropical forests across two continents.

Leaf dark respiration (Rdark ) represents an important component controlling the carbon balance in tropical forests. Here, we test how nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) affect Rdark and its relationship with photosynthesis using three widely separated tropical forests which differ in soil fertility. Rdark was measured on 431 rainforest canopy trees, from 182 species, in French Guiana, Peru and Australia. The variation in Rdark was examined in relation to leaf N and P content, leaf structure and maximum photosynthetic rates at ambient and saturating atmospheric CO2 concentration. We found that the site with the lowest fertility (French Guiana) exhibited greater rates of Rdark per unit leaf N, P and photosynthesis. The data from Australia, for which there were no phylogenetic overlaps with the samples from the South American sites, yielded the most distinct relationships of Rdark with the measured leaf traits. Our data indicate that no single universal scaling relationship accounts for variation in Rdark across this large biogeographical space. Variability between sites in the absolute rates of Rdark and the Rdark  : photosynthesis ratio were driven by variations in N- and P-use efficiency, which were related to both taxonomic and environmental variability.

Thermal limits of leaf metabolism across biomes.

High-temperature tolerance in plants is important in a warming world, with extreme heat waves predicted to increase in frequency and duration, potentially leading to lethal heating of leaves. Global patterns of high-temperature tolerance are documented in animals, but generally not in plants, limiting our ability to assess risks associated with climate warming. To assess whether there are global patterns in high-temperature tolerance of leaf metabolism, we quantified Tcrit (high temperature where minimal chlorophyll a fluorescence rises rapidly and thus photosystem II is disrupted) and Tmax (temperature where leaf respiration in darkness is maximal, beyond which respiratory function rapidly declines) in upper canopy leaves of 218 plant species spanning seven biomes. Mean site-based Tcrit values ranged from 41.5 °C in the Alaskan arctic to 50.8 °C in lowland tropical rainforests of Peruvian Amazon. For Tmax , the equivalent values were 51.0 and 60.6 °C in the Arctic and Amazon, respectively. Tcrit and Tmax followed similar biogeographic patterns, increasing linearly (˜8 °C) from polar to equatorial regions. Such increases in high-temperature tolerance are much less than expected based on the 20 °C span in high-temperature extremes across the globe. Moreover, with only modest high-temperature tolerance despite high summer temperature extremes, species in mid-latitude (~20-50°) regions have the narrowest thermal safety margins in upper canopy leaves; these regions are at the greatest risk of damage due to extreme heat-wave events, especially under conditions when leaf temperatures are further elevated by a lack of transpirational cooling. Using predicted heat-wave events for 2050 and accounting for possible thermal acclimation of Tcrit and Tmax , we also found that these safety margins could shrink in a warmer world, as rising temperatures are likely to exceed thermal tolerance limits. Thus, increasing numbers of species in many biomes may be at risk as heat-wave events become more severe with climate change.

Convergence in the temperature response of leaf respiration across biomes and plant functional types.

Plant respiration constitutes a massive carbon flux to the atmosphere, and a major control on the evolution of the global carbon cycle. It therefore has the potential to modulate levels of climate change due to the human burning of fossil fuels. Neither current physiological nor terrestrial biosphere models adequately describe its short-term temperature response, and even minor differences in the shape of the response curve can significantly impact estimates of ecosystem carbon release and/or storage. Given this, it is critical to establish whether there are predictable patterns in the shape of the respiration-temperature response curve, and thus in the intrinsic temperature sensitivity of respiration across the globe. Analyzing measurements in a comprehensive database for 231 species spanning 7 biomes, we demonstrate that temperature-dependent increases in leaf respiration do not follow a commonly used exponential function. Instead, we find a decelerating function as leaves warm, reflecting a declining sensitivity to higher temperatures that is remarkably uniform across all biomes and plant functional types. Such convergence in the temperature sensitivity of leaf respiration suggests that there are universally applicable controls on the temperature response of plant energy metabolism, such that a single new function can predict the temperature dependence of leaf respiration for global vegetation. This simple function enables straightforward description of plant respiration in the land-surface components of coupled earth system models. Our cross-biome analyses shows significant implications for such fluxes in cold climates, generally projecting lower values compared with previous estimates.

Global convergence in leaf respiration from estimates of thermal acclimation across time and space.

Recent compilations of experimental and observational data have documented global temperature-dependent patterns of variation in leaf dark respiration (R), but it remains unclear whether local adjustments in respiration over time (through thermal acclimation) are consistent with the patterns in R found across geographical temperature gradients. We integrated results from two global empirical syntheses into a simple temperature-dependent respiration framework to compare the measured effects of respiration acclimation-over-time and variation-across-space to one another, and to a null model in which acclimation is ignored. Using these models, we projected the influence of thermal acclimation on: seasonal variation in R; spatial variation in mean annual R across a global temperature gradient; and future increases in R under climate change. The measured strength of acclimation-over-time produces differences in annual R across spatial temperature gradients that agree well with global variation-across-space. Our models further project that acclimation effects could potentially halve increases in R (compared with the null model) as the climate warms over the 21st Century. Convergence in global temperature-dependent patterns of R indicates that physiological adjustments arising from thermal acclimation are capable of explaining observed variation in leaf respiration at ambient growth temperatures across the globe.