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Objectives: The risk factors for extraurothelial recurrence (EUR) after radical nephroureterectomy (RNU) in patients with upper urinary tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC) are currently inconsistent and unclear. In this study, we aimed to identify these risk factors and develop a grading system for EUR. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed 220 patients who underwent RNU for UTUC in our center from January 2009 to December 2020. Overall survival (OS) and extraurothelial recurrence-free survival (EURFS) were compared using the Kaplan-Meier curve with a log-rank test. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression models were applied to identify the independent risk factors related to EUR. Results: The median follow-up period was 42 (range: 2-143) months. Of the 220 patients, 61 patients developed EUR in our cohort, which had worse survival outcome. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed pathologic stage, lymph node (LN) status, lymphovascular invasion (LVI), Ki-67, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) were independent risk factors for EUR. The Kaplan-Meier curves revealed a significant difference in EUR among the three risk groups. Conclusion: Our study suggests that pathologic stage, LN status, LVI, Ki-67, NLR, and PLR are independent risk factors for EUR in UTUC patients after RNU. The development of a grading system for EUR risk stratification may assist urologists in making clinical decisions regarding the management of UTUC.
RESUMO
OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to establish and validate nomograms to predict the probability of intravesical recurrence (IVR) after radical nephroureterectomy (RNU) for upper urinary tract epithelial carcinoma (UTUC). METHODS: Clinical data of 528 patients with UTUC after RNU were collected from two medical centers between 2009 and 2020. We used the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression to select variables for multivariable Cox regression analysis in the training cohort and included independent risk factors into nomogram models predicting IVR-free survival (IVRFS). Another center was applied as the external cohort to validate the predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomogram by performing area under the receiver operating curve (AUC), consistency index (C-index), and calibration curve. RESULTS: History of bladder cancer, tumor size, preoperative urine cytology, postoperative instillation, Ki-67, and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) were identified as independent risk factors for IVR. The prognosis model including these predictors demonstrated excellent discriminatory performance in both the training cohort (C-index, 0.814) and external validation cohort (C-index, 0.748). The calibration plots of the nomogram revealed good consistency in both cohorts. Finally, patients could be classified into two risk groups based on scores obtained from the nomogram, with significant differences in IVRFS. CONCLUSION: Our study provided a reliable nomogram for predicting the probability of IVR in patients with UTUC after RNU. Risk stratification based on this model may assist urologists make optimal clinical decisions on the management of UTUC.
